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Households feel inflation is easing in short and medium term: RBI Survey
Households feel inflation is easing in short and medium term: RBI Survey

Times of Oman

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Times of Oman

Households feel inflation is easing in short and medium term: RBI Survey

New Delhi: Indian households' perception of current inflation in the country fell slightly, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). As per the RBI's Households' Inflation Expectations Survey, the median inflation perception declined by 10 basis points to 7.7 per cent in May, down from 7.8 per cent recorded in March 2025. The survey also highlighted that expectations for inflation over the next three months remained unchanged at 8.9 per cent, while the one-year-ahead expectation declined by 20 basis points to 9.5 per cent. This indicates that households feel price pressures are easing, both in the short and medium term. Notably, fewer people now expect prices and inflation to rise compared to the last survey round. The Reserve Bank of India released the findings of its bi-monthly "Inflation Expectations Survey of Households" for May 2025, which reflects a softening in the public's view on inflation. The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11 across 19 major cities and received 6,079 valid responses. The survey data showed that the easing of inflationary expectations was visible across key product groups such as food, non-food items, household durables, housing, and services. In particular, around 55 per cent of households now believe food prices will increase more than the current rate. Among product categories, the expectation of a price rise in the next three months was highest for food products (82.8 per cent), followed by housing (78.3 per cent) and non-food items (75.3 per cent). Looking one year ahead, 89.2 per cent of respondents expect a general rise in prices, although this number has moderated from previous rounds. The survey also pointed out demographic and regional differences. Retired persons and people above 60 years continued to perceive higher inflation compared to younger age groups. City-wise, people in Jammu, Kolkata, and Mumbai reported the highest inflation perception, while respondents from Bengaluru and Ahmedabad perceived inflation to be lower. Overall, the results suggested a marginal improvement in inflation sentiment among households, indicating greater confidence in the price situation. The Reserve Bank clarified that this survey reflects individual expectations and consumption patterns and may not necessarily align with official inflation data or the RBI's views.

Vietnam Orders Action to Avert Power Crunch as Heat Lifts Demand
Vietnam Orders Action to Avert Power Crunch as Heat Lifts Demand

Bloomberg

time7 days ago

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Vietnam Orders Action to Avert Power Crunch as Heat Lifts Demand

Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has ordered government agencies to ensure uninterrupted power supplies for households and businesses as heat waves boost electricity demand to a record. Recent bouts of sweltering heat in northern and central areas of the nation increased peak power demand to almost 52 gigawatts on June 2, an all-time high, according to a statement posted on the government website. The mean temperature in Vietnam topped 30C on Monday, about 8% above the 30-year average for this time of year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

What does the latest inflation data mean for interest rates?
What does the latest inflation data mean for interest rates?

Times

time21-05-2025

  • Business
  • Times

What does the latest inflation data mean for interest rates?

The latest set of inflation figures may be enough to eradicate the deep-seated divisions among the nine members of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC). Headline inflation climbed to its highest point since January 2024, up to 3.5 per cent from 2.6 per cent. The 0.9 percentage point increase between March and April was the largest month-on-month change since October 2022. Household bills were the main culprit for the inflation surge, but the Office for National Statistics also said that airfares increased by 27.5 per cent, the second biggest monthly increase in April on record, because the statistics agency collected data over the Easter weekend when flight prices typically surge. Food inflation climbed to 3.4 per cent last month from 3 per cent

Bigger-than-expected inflation jump worsens Bank of England dilemma
Bigger-than-expected inflation jump worsens Bank of England dilemma

The Guardian

time21-05-2025

  • Business
  • The Guardian

Bigger-than-expected inflation jump worsens Bank of England dilemma

For households across Britain, April was an awful month. Rising energy bills, broadband costs and the sharpest increase in water bills since privatisation – despite public anger over the quality of service offered – all added to the cost of living squeeze. Economists had forecast a jump in inflation based on the flurry of annual bill increases. But at 3.5% – the highest rate in the G7 – the rise was bigger than the 3.5% rate predicted in the City, and will raise concerns at the Bank of England. Most of the increase was down to energy costs, after a well-telegraphed 6.4% increase in the Ofgem consumer price cap. However, there was a much bigger leap in water and sewerage bills, where prices rose by a whopping 26.1% – the biggest annual increase since February 1988. Although inflation had been cooling for several months, it was clear a jump in the headline rate would come as a consequence of the changes in utility bills, as well as a number of other price increases timed to land in April each year. Inflation has been close to the 2% target since the middle of last year, having fallen back from a peak of more than 11% in late 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring. Now it is on the rise again, and Threadneedle Street forecasts it will peak at an average of 3.5% over the summer months and does not expect it to return to its 2% target until early 2027. Usually inflation sticking above the Bank's target for so long would entirely rule out interest rate cuts. However, at 4.25%, official borrowing costs are squeezing businesses and households at a time when there are concerns over economic growth given heightened uncertainty as Donald Trump's trade wars rattle the global economy. In this world, policymakers are attempting to strike a balance between bearing down on inflation, while supporting activity in the economy. Given the higher-than-expected inflationary burst in April, there are concerns that the Bank will not be able to reduce borrowing costs by as much as hoped, even as economic uncertainty remains elevated. There are, however, some signs that the rise in inflation should prove temporary. Business leaders have been warning about the impact of the government's £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) – introduced last month – being passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Economists say there was some evidence in the April data, after services inflation – which is more sensitive to labour costs – sharply strengthened on the month, from 4.7% to 5.4%. To many business groups this was a clear sign of costs being passed on. However, the picture is not entirely clear. Much of the overshoot was driven by the timing of Easter. The Office for National Statistics highlighted that it gathered its data for consumer prices during this year's Easter holidays, when travel and tourism companies sharply increase prices. Because it gathered last year's data outside the long bank holiday weekend, the inflation rate – which measures the change in price from a year earlier – is unflatteringly high. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Air fares increased by 27.5% when compared with those in March, the second-biggest month-on-month increase on record, while prices for recreation and culture, particularly foreign holidays, also rose sharply. In contrast, the rate of inflation for restaurants and hotels – a sector particularly exposed to higher labour costs – cooled on the month. Still, other economists point to food inflation, which is also likely to be influenced by the NICs increase, where price growth increased from 2.9% to 3.2%. Where the tax increase is having a more noticeable impact, however, is in terms of hiring, after figures published earlier this month showed unemployment hitting the highest level in almost four years. That ought to concern Threadneedle Street's policymakers for the months ahead.

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