20-05-2025
IHSAA baseball Fab 15 rankings: A change at the top, plus sectional predictions
We've made it to the final week of the IHSAA baseball regular season. Temperatures have consistently reached perfect baseball weather without getting too hot (in my opinion). Top teams continue to jostle for the top spot. The middle tier has started to stabilize as well with Zionsville making a leap back up the rankings.
Here's this week's Central Indiana Fab 15:
Last ranking: No. 2
The Tigers clinched at least a share of the Hoosier Crossroads Conference title with their 4-2 win over Franklin Central. The Tigers can clinch an outright title with a win over Brownsburg on Wednesday, or with a Zionsville loss to Noblesville. The Tigers have won four games in a row and are 11-1 in the toughest conference in the state. That's a résumé worthy of the No. 1 spot.
∎ Sectional prediction: Fishers opens sectional play against Hamilton Southeastern. Fishers is 2-0 against HSE this season. Playing a rival in an elimination game adds intrigue to the matchup, but I think Fishers advances to face the winner of Zionsville vs. Noblesville. It's unfortunate one of Fishers, Zionsville or Noblesville won't advance past the sectional semifinals, but need for a seeded tournament aside, in this exercise, I have Fishers advancing to face Westfield in the sectional championship. Fishers is 2-0 against Westfield with a combined margin of victory of just three runs. Expect a close game, but I think Fishers wins the sectional championship.
Last ranking: No. 1
Center Grove has stumbled a bit, dropping two of its past four games. The Trojans will be tested down the stretch with games against Hamilton Southeastern, University and Brebeuf Jesuit looming.
∎ Sectional prediction: In another unfortunate sectional draw, reigning Class 4A runner-up Mooresville opens the postseason against Center Grove. One state title contender will be eliminated in the first round. Seems like an issue seeding could fix. With that being said, I expect Hudson DeVaughan to give the Pioneers a good chance to win, but Center Grove's depth will be too much for Mooresville. I think Center Grove advances past the winner of Southport vs. Perry Meridian to face Decatur Central. Decatur Central is a program on the rise with multiple talented underclassmen, but knocking off Center Grove is too much to ask. I have Center Grove winning the sectional title.
Last Ranking: No. 4
Roncalli may be one of the hottest teams in Central Indiana. The Royals have won 11 games in a row and claimed two title last week, winning the Marion County tournament with a win over Brebeuf Jesuit on Tuesday and claiming the Circle City Conference title with a win over Guerin Catholic on Thursday.
∎ Sectional prediction: Roncalli gets one of the tougher first-round matchups opening against Shelbyville. Shelbyville has an ace in Kentucky commit Aiden Smith. Smith is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 43 strikeouts over 31⅔ innings. If Smith is on, the Golden Bears have a good chance to knock off the Royals. I think Smith gives his team a great start, but Roncalli pulls out the win in the end. The Royals avoid a semifinal matchup against New Palestine, and I think both teams advance to the sectional final, setting up a great game between New Pal and Roncalli. Heading into the final week of the regular season, Roncalli has a team ERA of 2.05. New Pal has a team ERA of 1.52. Roncalli has four players with more than 27 innings pitched. New Pal has just two, Rigg Mahurin and Holden Hughes. I think Roncalli's depth allows it to knock off New Pal in a close game.
Last ranking: No. 5
New Pal's offense has caught fire over its current three-game winning streak, scoring a total of 28 runs.
∎ Sectional prediction: I broke down the New Pal sectional in the Roncalli capsule above. I think New Pal advances past Rushville and Indian Creek, setting up a sectional championship game against Roncalli. The title game is a true toss-up, but I think Roncalli's depth will help the Royals defeat the Dragons in a close game.
Last ranking: No. 6
Noblesville continues to rise back up the rankings. The Millers have won 10 games in a row, but they face a tough final week with a game against Brownsburg and two games against Zionsville looming. Adding to the difficulty of their final week, Noblesville ends the regular season against Zionsville, only to open sectional play against the Eagles, too.
∎ Sectional prediction: The outcome of this week would've certainly impacted how I predicted the outcome of Noblesville's first-round matchup against Zionsville. But I'm working on this before the teams play twice, so I'm going to give it my best guess. Both teams can put two aces on the mound. Junior Beckett Doane and senior Joe Glander have electric stuff for Noblesville. Zionsville can counter with sophomore Davis Moore and senior Brady Shaw. Noblesville has an experience advantage, and the offense has more slugging with senior Trevor Corbett and junior Aiden Reynolds combining for six home runs. I think Noblesville advances past Zionsville, before losing in a close game to Fishers.
Last ranking: No. 14
Zionsville is the big riser with its two victories over Avon. Brady Shaw and Nick Wahl combined for a one-hit win over Avon in the first game. Camden Moore, Jackson Tielker and Matt Pederson had two RBIs each. Davis Moore threw a one-hit shutout in Zionsville's second win over Avon.
∎ Sectional predictions: I broke down the Zionsville vs. Noblesville sectional matchup in the Noblesville capsule above. Both teams are well-balanced, but I think the Millers' offense helps Noblesville pull out a close first-round win.
Last ranking: No. 7
Westfield holds steady, winning four in a row by a combined 34-10 margin. Jordan Beck drove in six runs in a win over Hamilton Southeastern. Matthew Spencer, Jackson Blevins and J.P. Sears combined to shutout Greenwood Christian. Sam Flickinger threw 4⅔ no-hit innings against Columbus North, striking out six. Owen Swinford closed out the no-hitter with a strikeout.
∎ Sectional prediction: Westfield won its lone matchup against Carmel back in late April. Both teams have improved since then, but I think Westfield has the experience to defeat Carmel, advancing to the sectional championship against Fishers. I broke down the Westfield vs. Fishers matchup in the Fishers capsule. Fishers is 2-0 against Westfield, and I think the Tigers improve to 3-0, beating Westfield and clinching a sectional title.
Last ranking: No. 8
The Greyhounds have hit their stride after an up-and-down April. Carmel has allowed just two runs over its past three games. Gabe Mathison and Anthony Back drove in two runs each against Mt. Vernon. Cole Caldwell threw a shutout against Batesville, scattering three hits, walking none and striking out eight.
∎ Sectional prediction: Carmel is playing some of its best baseball down the stretch, but postseason baseball is a different story. Mathison and J.D. Stein are talented and experienced players. Can they do enough to lift Carmel past Westfield? I don't think so. I think Westfield wins a close game against Carmel in the semifinal.
Last ranking: No. 3
The Orioles have dropped seven of their past 11 games. They have wins over Fishers and Brownsburg over that stretch, showing how high their ceiling is, but also highlighting the inconsistency plaguing the team at times. Avon has a chance to vault back up the rankings with a game against Columbus North and two games against Westfield this week.
∎ Sectional prediction: Avon opens with a semifinal game against Plainfield. I think the Orioles defeat Plainfield, setting up a championship game against Brownsburg. Avon and Brownsburg split in the regular season. Brownsburg won the most recent matchup and has been playing better of late. I think Brownsburg knocks off Avon, clinching the sectional title.
Last ranking: No. 9
Lapel continues to win, moving its win streak to 13 games in a row. Kai Newman struck out 11 and allowed just one hit over five shutout innings against Kokomo in the first game of a doubleheader. Ray Smith added two hits and three RBIs in the second game of the doubleheader.
∎ Sectional prediction: The Bulldogs should be the heavy favorite to win the Lapel sectional. Aside from Lapel, Frankton is the only team with a winning record in the sectional, and Lapel beat Frankton 10-3 in late April. I think Lapel cruises to a sectional championship over Frankton.
Last ranking: No. 12
Cathedral clinched its 30th City championship with a 2-0 win over Covenant Christian. Connor Christiansen drove in both runs with a single. Ethan Dorsey and Landon Hughes combined for the shutout. The Irish dropped a game against reigning Class 4A champion Lake Central before handily winning their next two games.
∎ Sectional prediction: Cathedral dropped down to Class 3A this season, instantly becoming a strong state title contender. The Fighting Irish seem poised to face Bishop Chatard in the sectional final. Cathedral is 2-0 against Chatard, winning by a combined 16-2 margin. I think the Fighting Irish defeat Chatard a third time, clinching a sectional title.
Last ranking: No. 11
Cascade moved it win streak to nine in a row with quality wins over Lebanon and Decatur Central. The Cadets got strong pitching performances from Royce Bright, Jackson Minner and Davis Hart against Lebanon. Hart added a complete game win against Decatur Central, allowing one run and striking out four. Cascade has a measuring stick game against Mooresville on Monday, and a matchup against sectional opponent Owen Valley on Wednesday.
∎ Sectional prediction: Cascade moved to Class 3A this season, but its sectional draw is much more favorable. The Cadets should advance to the sectional final to face the winner of Speedway vs. Owen Valley. Regardless of the opponent, I think Cascade wins the sectional title.
Last ranking: No. 13
Franklin's played a tough schedule, dropping just one game against a team it probably should've beaten in Plainfield, and that loss came all the way back in early April. Braedon Burton went the distance against Greenwood, scattering six hits, allowing just one earned run and striking out eight. Nash Netter drove in three RBIs in Franklin's second win over Greenwood. The Grizzly Cubs will be tested with two games against Decatur Central this week.
∎ Sectional prediction: Franklin opens the tournament with a semifinal matchup against Columbus East. I think Franklin defeats Columbus East, advancing to face Whiteland in the championship game. Whiteland has a great win against Center Grove, showing what it can do when everything is going well. I think Franklin's tough schedule will have it ready to pull out a close win over Whiteland for the sectional title.
Last ranking: Tied 15th
Tri-West had won nine of its past 10 games before dropping a game to Noblesville via run rule. The 10 runs allowed to the Millers ties the total the Bruins surrendered over their past four games combined. Noblesville is a state title contender and should serve as a measuring stick for Tri-West.
∎ Sectional prediction: Tri-West opens a talent-heavy sectional against Frankfort. I predict the Bruins will beat Frankfort and advance to face a Crawfordsville team they've beat twice already. I think Tri-West makes it three wins over Crawfordsville, setting up a sectional championship against Brebeuf. Brebeuf is scuffling down the stretch, losing three in a row heading into the final week of the regular season. I think Tri-West plays sound baseball and beats Brebeuf to win the sectional title.
Last ranking: Tied 15th
Triton Central's six-game winning streak came to an end with a loss to Heritage Christian. Games against Lutheran and Park Tudor will be great tests before the postseason begins.
∎ Sectional prediction: Triton Central opens the tournament against Irvington Prep. The Ravens average 11.5 runs per game. Offense isn't a problem, but IPA has to pitch well to win. I think Triton Central beats IPA, advancing to face Scecina. The Tigers beat Scecina by a combined 24-2 margin in their first two games. I think Triton Central beats Scecina again, setting up a championship game against Heritage Christian. In a close game, Heritage Christian knocks off Triton Central to win the sectional title.
