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After the TACO trade, here comes the ‘Trump collar.' What that means for stocks.
After the TACO trade, here comes the ‘Trump collar.' What that means for stocks.

Yahoo

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

After the TACO trade, here comes the ‘Trump collar.' What that means for stocks.

Early action on Monday shows Wall Street starting the week on the back foot, as trade-war concerns once again dominate the narrative. This may come as no surprise to Charlie McElligott, strategist at Nomura. What on Earth is going on with the American consumer? My daughter's boyfriend, a guest in my home, offered to powerwash part of my house — then demanded money I help my elderly mother every day and drive her to appointments. Can I recoup my costs from her estate? My father-in-law has dementia and is moving in with us. Can we invoice him for a caregiver? 'I'm not wildly wealthy, but I've done well': I'm 79 and have $3 million in assets. Should I set up 529 plans for my grandkids? Known for his colorful stream-of-consciousness notes examining derivatives, McElligott taps the ever-expanding lexicon of Trump trades to tout the 'Trump collar' as a way to explain the latest market moves. A collar, in option markets, is a strategy used to protect against significant losses, but which also limits potential profits. Collars tend to be used when a trader is generally optimistic about an asset owned for the long term, but there's concern about short-term volatility in the market. The trade is struck by buying an out-of-the money put option (the right to sell a security at a particular strike price within a given time period) and selling an out-of-the-money call option (the right to buy a security at a particular strike price within the same time period). 'Out of the money' refers to when a call-option strike price is above the current asset price and when a put-option strike price is below the asset price. McElligott argues that investors should think in terms of a collar when they consider a market that is kept in a range by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff rhetoric — a market that seems to want to trundle higher, but which is regularly knocked back by Truth Social posts. 'You all know 'Art of the Deal' Trump … and over the past month+, the 'TACO'-kind … but what it all adds up to now is the de facto 'Trump Collar,' as the market retrains the reaction function in the 'Human VVIX' era,' says McElligott in an email missive sent Friday. Readers will by now be familiar with the TACO trade. The VVIX is a gauge that measures the volatility of the Cboe volatility index 'VIX' VIX, and McElligott is clearly laying the cause of market vacillations at the feet of Trump. He presents the table below to illustrate just how much Trump — the 'Status Quo Disruptor in Chief,' as he calls the Republican president — has been impacting markets. McElligott says that, late last week, when the S&P 500 SPX sat only a few percentage points shy of February's record high, the stock market was in the upper band of its range trade because investors have come to terms with what the analyst calls Trump-collar 'reflexivity.' By this he means that traders are aware that a falling market, in response to harsh Trump trade talk, will subsequently be lifted by Trump's delivery of more soothing trade comments. But 'Trump then becomes re-emboldened' and talks tough again, causing investors to sell call options to hedge against declines. We see this happening when the S&P 500 moves back toward the 6,000 level, according to McElligott. Then in response to the 'Human VVIX' downside scenario — as Trump again talks tough — the volatility of volatility re-expands, and U.S. dollar assets trade lower again in unstable fashion. That once again 'restrikes the Trump Put, as his 'pain threshold' is hit in financial markets' and they rally back 'off the precipice,' he said. 'Rinse, repeat,' says McElligott. He says that, if a trader had bought S&P 500 futures five days after Trump delivered some of his fiery tariff rhetoric — the market had fallen in response — and sold S&P 500 futures five days after Trump pulled back from that earlier position — the market had then rallied — the trade would have resulted in a 12% return. U.S. stock-indices SPX DJIA COMP are lower at the opening bell as benchmark Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rise. The dollar index DXY is lower, and gold GC00 is trading around $3.355 an ounce. Oil prices CL.1 are sharply higher despite OPEC+ announcing another sharp production hike. Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 5911.69 1.88% 3.96% 0.51% 12.02% Nasdaq Composite 19,113.77 2.01% 6.32% -1.02% 14.21% 10-year Treasury 4.447 -7.10 9.80 -12.90 5.20 Gold 3375 0.52% 0.94% 27.87% 42.33% Oil 62.84 2.15% 9.80% -12.56% -15.09% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern. U.S. economic data due on Monday include the S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, followed at 10 a.m. by the ISM manufacturing survey for May. China has vowed to fight back over what it called 'discriminatory restrictive measures' by the U.S. that it said are endangering an agreement hammered out between the two countries last month. Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs CLF, Nucor NUE and Steel Dynamics STLD are surging after Donald Trump said he was slapping 50% tariffs on steel imports. The Federal Reserve will likely be able to lower interest rates this year, and recent data support this outlook, Fed governor Christopher Waller said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make some opening remarks at 1 p.m. Ahead of him, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at 10:15 a.m., and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 12:45 p.m. The law firms that appeased Trump — and angered their clients. 'You are going to panic,' Jamie Dimon tells regulators about what will happen when the bond market cracks. Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate? There's a lot of chatter about how rising Treasury yields may be damping demand for stocks. But as Goldman Sachs shows, it's not so much the height of yields that's the problem, but more the speed at which they rise. Read: Here's why Goldman still sees 10% upside to the S&P 500, even with bond yields rising Here were the most active stock-market ticker symbols on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern. Ticker Security name NVDA Nvidia TSLA Tesla GME GameStop PLTR Palantir Technologies BMGL Basel Medical AAPL Apple MLGO MicroAlgo AMC AMC Entertainment TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing NIO NIO A big legal splash at Walt Disney World. Millions of honeybees abuzz after truck overturns in Washington state. Anthropic's new AI model didn't just 'blackmail' researchers in tests — it tried to leak information to news outlets. For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, .'The situation is extreme': I'm 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will? 'You never know what might happen': How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance? 10 nuclear stocks expected to rise as much as 94% after Meta-Constellation deal Strategists forecast a sizzling summer for small-cap stocks 'I am getting very frustrated': My mother's adviser has not returned my calls. He manages $1 million. Is this normal? Sign in to access your portfolio

Today's NYT Mini Crossword Answers for May 30
Today's NYT Mini Crossword Answers for May 30

CNET

time6 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • CNET

Today's NYT Mini Crossword Answers for May 30

Looking for the most recent Mini Crossword answer? Click here for today's Mini Crossword hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Wordle, Strands, Connections and Connections: Sports Edition puzzles. Today's NYT Mini Crossword might trip you up if, like me, you can never remember the names of the Oscar-winning movies, even months after the ceremony. Need some help with today's Mini Crossword? Read on. And if you could use some hints and guidance for daily solving, check out our Mini Crossword tips. The Mini Crossword is just one of many games in the Times' games collection. If you're looking for today's Wordle, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands answers, you can visit CNET's NYT puzzle hints page. Read more: Tips and Tricks for Solving The New York Times Mini Crossword Let's get at those Mini Crossword clues and answers. The completed NYT Mini Crossword puzzle for May 30, 2025. NYT/Screenshot by CNET Mini across clues and answers 1A clue: Browser windows Answer: TABS 5A clue: Whom you often long to speak to during a customer service call Answer: HUMAN 6A clue: 2024 film that won Best Picture Answer: ANORA 7A clue: Weightless state experienced by astronauts, for short Answer: ZEROG 8A clue: Garden in Genesis Answer: EDEN Mini down clues and answers 1D clue: Adjusted, as a radio dial Answer: TUNED 2D clue: Love, in Rome Answer: AMORE 3D clue: British nobility rank below earl and viscount Answer: BARON 4D clue: Grab a hold of Answer: SNAG 5D clue: Mental fog Answer: HAZE How to play more Mini Crosswords The New York Times Games section offers a large number of online games, but only some of them are free for all to play. You can play the current day's Mini Crossword for free, but you'll need a subscription to the Times Games section to play older puzzles from the archives.

A wake-up call for education: Lessons from Peru's successful literacy reform journey
A wake-up call for education: Lessons from Peru's successful literacy reform journey

Daily Maverick

time27-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Daily Maverick

A wake-up call for education: Lessons from Peru's successful literacy reform journey

A deep dive into the data behind the poor scores of South Africa's primary school learners in reading assessments — Part 1. South Africa got a sharp wake-up call in 2023 when the results of an international reading literacy survey found that 80% of our Grade 4s couldn't read for meaning. We came stone last in a group of 57 countries that did the test. Ten years earlier in 2013, Peru got a similar shock when the poor performance of its public schools in an international reading and mathematics assessmen t made national media headlines. Peru acted quickly to start to turn things around, said Jaime Saavedra, Peru's former minister of education, now at the World Bank as Director of Human Development for Latin America and the Caribbean. He described how his country made 'tangible short-term gains' at a meeting of the 2030 Reading Panel in February. It focused on four lines of action. Improve the social standing of teachers because 'teachers are the central partners in any education reform process'. Learning: Make quality interventions to improve teaching methods, strategies and resources. For Peru, this included providing learning material in 19 local languages. Effective management: 'It needs a high-quality bureaucracy to drive change at scale', from school management upwards. Improve school infrastructure. Through this approach the percentage of Grade 2 learners with a satisfactory achievement level in reading improved from 33% in 2013 to 50% in 2016, he noted, showing a chart of the results. What can we learn from Pirls? The most well-known and widely reported evidence that South Africa's children are not learning to read at school is the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement's (IEA's) 2021 (Pirls). South Africa is one of only three African countries that participates in Pirls, the other two are Morocco and Egypt. Both of them did better than South Africa. Morocco and Egypt are lower-middle income countries whereas South Africa is an upper-middle income country and should, in theory, have the resources to do better. Brazil and Turkey, which are upper middle-income countries, both scored better than South Africa, although they were also in Pirls' bottom 10. Only one country in South America participated, Brazil. Peru's shock reading results were from a different survey, the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa). For the Pirls study, the minimum result indicating that learners can 'read for meaning' in easy texts is the 'low' benchmark of 400 points. This entails retrieving basic information sufficient to answer straightforward questions about the text. The median percentage of Grade 4 learners around the world reaching this minimum benchmark was 94%, but only 19.5% of South African learners managed it. Only 6% of South African learners exceeded this skill level and reached the intermediate benchmark (+475 points), meaning they can begin to interpret and integrate information about the text. Just 3% of our learners reached the 'high benchmark' (+550 points), which means they proved their ability to interpret and evaluate complex texts. Setting targets This is not the first time South Africa's learners have done badly in international reading surveys. In 2019, President Cyril Ramaphosa set a target that in 10 years 'every 10-year-old will be able to read for meaning'. Hence the 2030 goal. The 2021 Pirls results were a big setback, although to be fair they took place immediately after the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted schooling around the world. It's still doubtful that South Africa will meet the 2030 target. You might even wonder why South Africa participates in Pirls at all if it's just going to make us look bad? At a seminar on reading literacy in 2023, former education minister Angie Motshekga answered that question when she said Pirls established a global standard for reading comprehension, and ' as a developing country, we are still on a journey to reach these international benchmarks '. Yet, South Africa stopped doing local standardised assessments that measure how well learners read in primary schools a decade ago when the Annual National Assessments (ANAs) were halted. The optimistic view is that even if our learners don't do that well in international tests, at least there is a will in the government to do something about it. We could take it as a positive sign that a quote by management consultant Peter Drucker, 'What gets measured gets improved', has been popping up in Department of Basic Education slide decks recently. Local benchmarks In 2022, a year after the Pirls assessment was done, a local survey was carried out. Called the South African Systemic Evaluation, it involved 56,650 learners from 1,688 schools. It looked at the reading and mathematics abilities of Grade 3, 6 and 9 learners across the country. It is being touted as a replacement for the Annual National Assessments. The Department of Basic Education released the results of the South African Systemic Evaluation only in December 2024. The way the South African Systemic Evaluation measures reading proficiency is not exactly the same as the Pirls assessment so they're not directly comparable; however, the results show a very similar and worrying pattern in that only 20% of learners in Grade 3 were able to achieve the level of reading skills they are expected to reach in that grade. In the South African Systemic Evaluation, the reading skills and knowledge learners are expected to be proficient at are divided into four performance levels. The first level, named 'emerging', is where learners are just beginning to develop the skills required for Grade 3-level reading. The next level up, known as 'evolving', is where learners are beginning to construct and adapt what they have learned. The third level, called 'enhancing', is where learners demonstrate that they actually have the required skills, are able to apply those skills and show they are moving towards independent learning. At the highest 'extending' level, learners show an advanced understanding of the knowledge and skills required, apply their knowledge in creative ways and can learn independently. Learners need to have 'enhancing'-level skills to meet the requirements of Grade 3. Only one in five of the Grade 3s who took part achieved that level. It's important to recognise that it's not all learners at all schools who can't read. In the Pirls tests some learners did well, while others did very badly. Language, location and socioeconomic circumstances have a role to play in shaping children's reading skills. What does language have to do with it? South Africa is one of the few countries that tested in multiple languages for Pirls in 2021. The assessment material was translated into all 11 official languages. Afrikaans and English test scores were much higher than the other nine languages. They were the only two languages where the average scores were relatively close to 400, the minimum required to show an ability to read for meaning in easy texts. Learners who completed the assessment in African languages scored below the national average of 288 points. The ones who scored the lowest were assessed in Xitsonga (223), Sepedi (216) and Setswana (211). The results of the local South African Systemic Evaluation survey showed a similar pattern in the Grade 3s tested. Where the language of learning and teaching at school is English or Afrikaans, learners were better at reading. Education inequality Why are children who were tested in English or Afrikaans doing so much better than those who tested in other African languages? This data can be misleading and give rise to the misconception that Afrikaans- and English-speaking children are better at reading. But looking deeper into the data reveals the crux of the issue, that in South Africa, the language of teaching and learning also links to the insufficiently addressed historical inequality in schooling. While the students who completed the Pirls test in English did much better than those who tested in African languages, most actually have a different home language. This indicates that many parents may choose to send their children to English schools because they are better resourced. That 30 years after the end of apartheid, Afrikaans and English schools are still better resourced is not just a perception, but is evident in the data. African language schools are far more likely to be categorised as disadvantaged, whereas about a third of English schools are categorised as advantaged, much more than schools of any other language. Looking at the reading achievement results in relation to the socioeconomic condition of the school points to the impact that an under-resourced school can have on a child's reading ability. Of the 9,842 South African schools surveyed in the Pirls study, 73% are categorised as socioeconomically disadvantaged (based on school principals' reports). The average reading level for children from these schools was 263 points whereas the reading level for the children from affluent schools was 420, which is above the 400-point Pirls benchmark. While the effect of socioeconomic context on reading level is a reality in most countries according to the Pirls Report, the problem is particularly significant in South Africa, where socioeconomic strata often affect the language of schooling and testing. Poor schools Public schools in South Africa are divided into five quintiles that reflect the socioeconomic circumstances of the communities the schools service. Schools in the poorest communities are classified quintile 1 and those in the more affluent communities are classified quintile 5. Schools in quintiles 1 to 3 are the so-called 'no-fee schools', where learners do not have to pay school fees, and schools in quintiles 4 and 5 are fee-paying schools. The results of the South African Systemic Evaluation show that children who go to quintile 5 schools are far more likely to be able to read at the level required for Grade 3 and that the reading skills of most of the children in quintile 1, 2 and 3 schools were found to be below the required level. Learners from the poorest backgrounds, who attend the no-fee schools (quintiles 1, 2 and 3) have the least access to resources. This highlights the inequality in South Africa's education and the need for targeted interventions and resource allocations in no-fee schools, researchers say. Something else to bear in mind is that girls do better at reading than boys across all quintiles, but particularly in poorer schools. Interventions are also needed to support boys' reading development. Provincial differences The South African Systemic Evaluation survey highlighted differences in the reading scores between the provinces. In the Western Cape nearly 40% of the Grade 3s tested showed they could read to the 'enhancing' level of reading proficiency required for Grade 3. In Gauteng, close to 30% did. In the other provinces fewer than 20% of children could read at the 'enhancing' level. In the Pirls test scores, the provinces that performed poorly were basically the same, although the Eastern Cape replaced the Northern Cape in the bottom four. Not an unsolvable problem Jaime Saavedra, who was Peru's education minister when the country took steps to change its poor reading and maths results, had a simple yet profound closing message for his presentation at the 2030 Reading Panel workshop. Public officials need to take their jobs seriously. They have an immense responsibility because they are 'making decisions that can define the careers of thousands of people and the experiences of millions of children', he said. 'If you are not afraid of that responsibility, you might not know what you are getting into.' Progress is possible, even in the short term, he said. But you need a sense of urgency, because 'as we speak, there is a child in a classroom who is not learning. For many, we are already late.' DM

The nexus of ICV, human capital development
The nexus of ICV, human capital development

Observer

time24-05-2025

  • Business
  • Observer

The nexus of ICV, human capital development

Oman 2040 strives to dynamically shift the limb of Oman's economic structure towards a diverse knowledge-based economy alongside social development. Another goal is to fulfill the objectives of Vision 2040 which has, in turn, resulted in Oman setting new bounds for productivity and innovation. A central element, for now, is mobilized towards a strategic policy called ICV (In-Country Value) which aims to cultivate the local economy by restricting the outflow of economic value from Oman, enabled through sustainable job creation and localized employment. Alongside this is the Human Capital Development which strives to build an innovative Omani workforce capable of sustaining the nation's long term growth. This powerful synergy between ICV and Human Capital Initiatives serves to yield immense value for Oman through nurturing the local talent to eradicate over dependency on foreign labor. Not having to spend externally on essential profits that come through employment results in an economically self sustaining country. This serves, alongside capturing the cores of capital depletion, to cultivate the intellect Oman needs to stay relevant competitively in the future. This text analyzes the intricate relationships of ICV and Human Capital Development in Oman, which examines how policies, strategies for specific sectors, and education systems are integrating to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. By addressing the gaps, highlighting the success stories, and offering strategic insights, we aspire to demonstrate how Oman can optimally utilize ICV to emerge as a leading regional human-centered economic development hub. The pillars of ICV include: Employment and training of Omani nationals; Retention of expenditure within Oman; Retention of local service providers and suppliers; and Omani goods and services. All of these pillars support Oman Vision 2040 which states that there is a need for a highly productive and empowered workforce to sustain a diversified and sustainable economy. There exists a legal framework to regulate and monitor the ICV delivery of a company's ICV initiatives through tendering processes where they have to submit ICV plans and mandatory ICV reports. In the oil and gas spheres, there is new legislation that requires companies to budget for mandatory spending on training Omanis, local SME support, and funding community development projects. This has resulted in the establishment of training and certification centers, and even working with local schools to develop programs valued by the workforce. This is how ICV has transformed from a policy instrument into a tool that strategically drives socio-economic development by ensuring that Oman's natural resources and industrial projects result in sustainable national value. DEVELOPING HUMAN CAPITAL (HCD) IN OMAN The term 'Human Capital Development' describes the enhancement of skills, knowledge and competence of an individual so that productivity and contribution to the economy improves. In regard to Oman, human capital development is crucial for achieving the objectives put forth in Vision 2040 where innovation, inclusivity and human empowerment forms the basis of human society. During the past two decades Oman has significantly improved its education, vocational training and general workforce development. There has been a remarkable improvement in the access to primary and secondary education and an increase in the number of higher education and technical colleges. Sultan Qaboos University and the University of Technology and Applied Sciences along with several private colleges have played a significant role in providing a workforce of skilled graduates. The Omanisation policy is one of the main elements of Oman's human capital strategy. The Omanisation policy is meant to reduce the reliance on foreign labor by putting up minimum hiring quotas for Omani nationals in all sectors and industries. Employment opportunities for nationals are guaranteed while at the same time boosting citizens' participation in economic are on-going, but problems remain. There is still a gap between qualifications and actual jobs because the available education does not match opportunity, which businesses regard as having sufficient soft skills, technical skills, and work experience. Hence, there appears to be greater focus on real-world applications through curriculum reforms, strengthening STEM fields, and initiatives supporting education. Consequently, a number of new government initiatives have been implemented, including: The National Training Fund (NTF), which finances training activities within specific industries for employers; Educational scholarships which, accompanied by internships, enhance career prospects through tangible, real-life engagements; and Creative self-employment innovation and entrepreneurship hubs for schools designated to advance innovation and guide students in setting up their businesses. Additionally, training is being provided through public-private partnerships to improve quality and relevance. For example, several leading companies in energy have collaborated with vocational training schools to develop and implement vocational training programs tailored to industry expectations. This ensures that the development of human capital is not only through government policy but also from the current requirements of the economy. Introducing sustainability to economic policies, human capital is regarded as a key element of international competitiveness and productivity. Oman is focused on improving the skills and capabilities of its people, which in turn lays the groundwork for sustainable growth of the country's economy for years to come. COMBINATION OF ICV WITH HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT Merging ICV with human capital development gives rise to an economic opportunity in Oman that is planned and executed to achieve inclusivity. This approach fulfills the objective that economic integration should not simply raise revenue, but also provide more value through positive and constructive participation by Omanis as leaders. ICV strategies are often implemented as a follow-up to human capital strategies, as they incorporate workforce creation into procurement and operational policies of the business. For instance, there is a general obligation for companies in Oman to train their staff, create Omani national employee retention strategies, and sponsor local universities by assisting with teacher appointment and building school facilities. Various leaders in the oil and gas industry such as Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) undertake comprehensive ICV strategies, giving rise to large-scale workforce development projects. These include vocational training, leadership training and in most cases the provision of the required prerequisites with Omanis having the needed technical and non-technical skills to compete in the industries. In the same manner, the ICV policies have been implemented in the health sector through clinical trainings, medical teaching programs, and research partnerships. These initiatives improve health services within the country and also ensure that Omanis have a key role in the development and governance of the sector. Targeted ICV interventions also benefit the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector which is considered to have high potential under Vision 2040. Such measures include coding boot camps, digital skills training, and technology-focused business incubators directed at enabling young Omanis to contribute to the digital economy. Oman's integrated approach relies heavily on public-private collaborations. Direct involvement of companies in talent management ensures that Oman is providing relevant and modern skills. This provides Oman with a competent and engaged local workforce, improving the company's productivity, and social acceptance to work in that region.

Sultan Nazrin grants teachers honour of delivering Friday Sermon for Teacher's Day
Sultan Nazrin grants teachers honour of delivering Friday Sermon for Teacher's Day

New Straits Times

time15-05-2025

  • General
  • New Straits Times

Sultan Nazrin grants teachers honour of delivering Friday Sermon for Teacher's Day

IPOH: In a historic and meaningful gesture to mark Teacher's Day tomorrow, the Sultan of Perak, Sultan Nazrin Muizzuddin Shah, has granted special permission for teachers across Perak to deliver the Friday sermon. Perak Islamic Religious and Malay Customs Council (MAIPk) president Tan Sri Mohd Annuar Zaini said the Perak Islamic Religious Department has prepared a sermon titled "Rabbani Teacher: Nurturing Human Dignity" in honour of the occasion. "The State Education Department director has endorsed 115 Education Service Officers whose names have been presented to His Royal Highness for royal consent, allowing them to serve as guest khatibs (preachers) in mosques across Perak. "In recognition of their vital role in shaping the future generation, Sultan Nazrin has approved these educators to deliver sermons at 115 mosques statewide," he said in a statement today. Teacher's Day is celebrated annually on May 16 in Malaysia.

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