Latest news with #IAWN
Sharjah 24
15-03-2025
- Science
- Sharjah 24
SAASST organises Asteroid Observation Campaign
This marks the first dedicated near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) observation campaign conducted through the Sharjah Astronomical Observatory. It aims to support astronomical research, enhance observational and analytical capabilities, and contribute to a better understanding of the orbital and physical characteristics of near-Earth asteroids. The campaign covered the key concepts involved in observing near-Earth asteroids, focusing on their orbital and physical characteristics. It emphasized the importance of monitoring, tracking, and studying these asteroids. Discussions also addressed global asteroid observation networks, including the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), which plays a crucial role in promoting global collaboration for monitoring celestial bodies. The campaign introduced internationally recognized observatories and telescopes, highlighting their advanced technical specifications, and explored the specialized software used for tracking and analyzing asteroids. During the campaign, participants engaged in hands-on activities, recording precise orbital and photometric data of the asteroid using advanced astronomical systems to track its motion and analyze its trajectory across the sky. This experience contributed to expanding participants' knowledge and capabilities in the field, enhancing their understanding of celestial bodies, as well as the orbital and physical characteristics of near-Earth asteroids.
Telegraph
25-02-2025
- Science
- Telegraph
Nasa feared giant asteroid had 20pc chance of hitting Earth
Nasa feared the chances of a deadly asteroid hitting Earth could rise past 20 per cent, but now believe it is more likely to collide with the Moon. The '2024 YR4' space rock, which is thought to be up to 90 metres in diameter – almost the length of a football pitch – was spotted on Christmas Day by a telescope in Chile, and its risk of impact rose steadily through January. Last week, Nasa increased the impact odds of the space rock to 3.1 per cent – or a one-in-32 chance of striking Earth in December 2032. But a statistical analysis seen by The Telegraph showed that the US space agency had warned that in a 'worst-case scenario' the chance of collision could climb past 20 per cent by April. The UN-endorsed space mission planning advisory group warns that 'terrestrial preparedness planning' should begin if the probability of impact is greater than 10 per cent within the next 20 years. The Nasa projections, submitted during a meeting of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) in Vienna, reveal just how seriously the agency was taking the threat. Latest observations show that 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat to Earth. However, the chance of it hitting the Moon has now risen to one in 55 (1.8 per cent), with the risk expected to increase in the coming weeks. A spokesman for Nasa said: 'There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon. 'When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032. 'As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted…experts at Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory's centre for near-earth object studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid's trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century.' An asteroid of similar size to 2024 YR4 collides with Earth every few thousand years and would be of sufficient size and speed to cause loss of life and severe damage to property. Astronomers had rated the threat of the new asteroid as being a level three on the Torino impact hazard scale and 'capable of causing localised destruction'. Nasa said the scare had provided an 'invaluable opportunity' to test planetary defence and notification processes. The agency said it will continue to observe 2024 YR4 and the James Webb space telescope will also study the rock throughout March to gain more insights. The asteroid will swing past Earth again in 2028, when final observations can be made ahead of the 2032 pass. The odds of a collision with Earth currently stand at one in 37,000 (0.0027 per cent) – but its new calculated trajectory means the chance of it hitting the Moon is rising. 'No longer a major impact threat' Dr Vishnu Reddy, IAWN manager, said: 'The object is no longer a major impact threat. So we are good. Based on what I have seen in the past, it is unlikely to go up higher once it is trending down towards nought per cent. 'The Moon impact probability is up now and will go higher for a few weeks before that comes down as well.' In recent years the threat from asteroids led Nasa and the European Space Agency (Esa) to crash a spacecraft into an asteroid in the first ever test to see if a space rock could be moved in orbit. Data showed that the mission did change the trajectory. Esa said that it expected the threat to the Moon to rise in the coming months, before falling. A spokesman said: 'We do not calculate the impact probability (IP) for the Moon in the same rigorous manner, as for the Earth. However, indeed we still see an upward trend of the Moon IP, which is currently around 1.8 per cent 'The situation is similar as it was when Earth was still well within the uncertainty region. 'The most likely outcome is that also the Moon IP will peak at some point and then start to drop quickly. 'Whether this will happen during the current visibility period, or whether we will have to wait for the next measurement opportunities in 2028, remains to be seen.'
The Independent
20-02-2025
- Science
- The Independent
NASA updates its percentage risk of asteroid hitting Earth
NASA has reduced the likelihood of Earth being hit by a huge asteroid from the highest-ever impact probability for an object of its size. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, says space rock 2024 YR4, estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide (40 to 100 metres), now has a 1.5 per cent chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032. 'New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032,' the agency said in an update on Thursday. 'Our understanding of the asteroid's path improves with every observation. We'll keep you posted.' On Tuesday, NASA had the impact probability at 3.1 per cent, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size, but the probability was as low as 1 per cent at the end of January. While the asteroid is unlikely to make contact, it is too soon to know where it might land if it did hit Earth in six years time. The UK is not within the current predicted 'impact risk corridor', which is the area where the asteroid could land, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN). However, more than 100 million people do live in places that could potentially be hit by 2024 YR4. This corridor stretches across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, the IAWN said. If the asteroid hits it could cause 'severe blast damage' as far as 50 km (31 miles) from the impact site, scientists say. Experts expect the probability of collision will change as more observations are made. There is a 0.8 per cent chance the asteroid will impact the moon, NASA said. The asteroid was first spotted in December by a telescope in Chile.
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Here's The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Slamming Into Earth In 2032, According To Scientists
NASA researchers say an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 now has about a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, a decrease from a record high estimate the day prior. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impact, but astronomers lowered the estimate on Wednesday after darker skies and increased visibility allowed them to take a better look at the asteroid. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood to be at 2.8% as of Wednesday. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 330 feet wide, and astronomers believe it could plow into the planet on Dec. 22, 2032. There is also a 0.8% chance it could slam into our moon that day instead, according to NASA. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said the following regions on Earth are at risk of being hit by the asteroid in 2032: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. The risks to Earth if the asteroid does collide with the planet are uncertain at the moment as its mass and potential impact location are unknown. As The New York Times notes, this could lead to a variety of possible scenarios from leveling a city to landing in the ocean and causing relatively little harm. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said that the impact would be 'catastrophic' if the asteroid landed in a populated area, but the damage wouldn't be global. 'It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,' Harwood said. 'It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen.' While 2024 YR4′s risk level on Tuesday was the highest ever recorded, it's overwhelmingly likely that the asteroid misses Earth. However, the IAWN notifies the public of an asteroid anytime there is a 1% chance or above of impact, which is extremely rare. The last time an asteroid met this threshold was in 2004, when asteroid Apophis' probability of hitting Earth in 2029 was raised to 2.7%. After its 2004 discovery, astronomers tracked Apophis, estimated to be about 1,100 feet across, to better understand its path. NASA now says there is no risk of Apophis striking Earth for at least a century. 2024 YR4 was discovered last December, when it had an estimated 1% chance of crashing into the planet in 2032. Passing the planet once every four years, the space rock blew past us in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2028 without incident. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, said at the time. 'But it deserves attention.' The asteroid will no longer be visible starting in April, but experts intend to study it using the James Webb Space Telescope in the meantime. It will be visible again in June 2028. 'As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,' NASA said in a planetary defense blog post published on Feb. 7. 'It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.' According to NASA, asteroids were born during the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. There are currently 1,362,002 of them known to NASA — many of them ranging from as tiny as 3 feet to as large as 329 miles. Besides 2024 YR4, there are not currently other asteroids with an impact probability above 1% at the moment, according to NASA. The good news is that NASA demonstrated that it's possible to alter an asteroid's trajectory with a first-of-its-kind test conducted in 2021 and 2022. In the experimental mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, experts successfully changed the path of space rock after launching a spacecraft into the object. The method is known as 'kinetic impact.' Newly Spotted Asteroid Has Tiny Chance Of Hitting Earth In 2032 Asteroid Will Pass In Front Of Bright Star Betelgeuse To Produce A Rare Eclipse Visible To Millions NASA Discovers Asteroid Has Its Own Tiny Moon
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Here's The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Slamming Into Earth In 2032, According To Scientists
NASA researchers say an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 now has about a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, a decrease from a record high estimate the day prior. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impact, but astronomers lowered the estimate on Wednesday after darker skies and increased visibility allowed them to take a better look at the asteroid. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood to be at 2.8% as of Wednesday. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 330 feet wide, and astronomers believe it could plow into the planet on Dec. 22, 2032. There is also a 0.8% chance it could slam into our moon that day instead, according to NASA. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said the following regions on Earth are at risk of being hit by the asteroid in 2032: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. The risks to Earth if the asteroid does collide with the planet are uncertain at the moment as its mass and potential impact location are unknown. As The New York Times notes, this could lead to a variety of possible scenarios from leveling a city to landing in the ocean and causing relatively little harm. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said that the impact would be 'catastrophic' if the asteroid landed in a populated area, but the damage wouldn't be global. 'It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,' Harwood said. 'It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen.' While 2024 YR4′s risk level on Tuesday was the highest ever recorded, it's overwhelmingly likely that the asteroid misses Earth. However, the IAWN notifies the public of an asteroid anytime there is a 1% chance or above of impact, which is extremely rare. The last time an asteroid met this threshold was in 2004, when asteroid Apophis' probability of hitting Earth in 2029 was raised to 2.7%. After its 2004 discovery, astronomers tracked Apophis, estimated to be about 1,100 feet across, to better understand its path. NASA now says there is no risk of Apophis striking Earth for at least a century. 2024 YR4 was discovered last December, when it had an estimated 1% chance of crashing into the planet in 2032. Passing the planet once every four years, the space rock blew past us in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2028 without incident. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, said at the time. 'But it deserves attention.' The asteroid will no longer be visible starting in April, but experts intend to study it using the James Webb Space Telescope in the meantime. It will be visible again in June 2028. 'As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,' NASA said in a planetary defense blog post published on Feb. 7. 'It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.' According to NASA, asteroids were born during the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. There are currently 1,362,002 of them known to NASA — many of them ranging from as tiny as 3 feet to as large as 329 miles. Besides 2024 YR4, there are not currently other asteroids with an impact probability above 1% at the moment, according to NASA. The good news is that NASA demonstrated that it's possible to alter an asteroid's trajectory with a first-of-its-kind test conducted in 2021 and 2022. In the experimental mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, experts successfully changed the path of space rock after launching a spacecraft into the object. The method is known as 'kinetic impact.' Newly Spotted Asteroid Has Tiny Chance Of Hitting Earth In 2032 Asteroid Will Pass In Front Of Bright Star Betelgeuse To Produce A Rare Eclipse Visible To Millions NASA Discovers Asteroid Has Its Own Tiny Moon
