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Business Recorder
14-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Wall Street Week Ahead: Earnings, inflation data confront resilient US stocks rally
NEW YORK: A rally that has taken US stocks to record highs will be tested in the coming week by the kick-off of corporate earnings season and a key inflation report as investors hope to learn more about the economic fallout from tariffs. The S&P 500 is little changed so far this week, but the benchmark stock index has surged 26% since April to all-time high levels. Stocks this week largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's threats of more aggressive tariffs on over 20 countries set to take effect August 1. Trump also announced plans for higher levies on copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. 'Investors are looking toward the end of the year into next year where fundamentals are better, and they are willing to look through some short-term uncertainty as they get there,' said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. After a strong first-quarter reporting season helped lift stocks, analyst estimates for second-quarter results have weakened. S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8% from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES. The percentage of S&P 500 companies beating consensus estimates rose to 78% in the first quarter after the rate had declined the prior three quarters, Ned Davis Research analysts said. 'Another reading in the upper 70s would suggest that companies have a grasp not only on tariffs, but also on the broader macro environment,' the Ned Davis analysts said in a note. Reports from banks will dominate the week, including results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Among the other major companies reporting next week are Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and 3M . In focus will be whether executives indicate if they are able to forecast and make decisions in areas such as capital investment and hiring despite the still-shifting trade backdrop, Fasciano said. 'The uncertainty hasn't gone away, but I'm curious to see how much of the uncertainty they feel they have a better understanding of in terms of longer-term plans,' Fasciano said. The impact of tariffs will also be at issue with the consumer price index for June, due on Tuesday, which will shed light on inflation trends. CPI is expected to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis, an acceleration from the prior month, according to economists polled by Reuters. A busy week of economic data will also be highlighted by monthly retail sales on Thursday. Investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, but central bank officials have cited worries that tariffs will drive inflation higher as reasons for holding off on changing monetary policy. The S&P 500 is up nearly 7% in 2025, just over halfway through the year. In the latest sign of positive stock momentum, Nvidia Corp this week became the first publicly traded company to hit $4 trillion in market value, fueled by a massive run for AI chipmaker's stock price.
Kuwait Times
13-07-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
Wall St Week Ahead Earnings, inflation data confront US stocks rally
NEW YORK: A rally that has taken US stocks to record highs will be tested in the coming week by the kick-off of corporate earnings season and a key inflation report as investors hope to learn more about the economic fallout from tariffs. The S&P 500 is little changed so far this week, but the benchmark stock index has surged 26 percent since April to all-time high levels. Stocks this week largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's threats of more aggressive tariffs on over 20 countries set to take effect August 1. Trump also announced plans for higher levies on copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. 'Investors are looking toward the end of the year into next year where fundamentals are better, and they are willing to look through some short-term uncertainty as they get there,' said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. After a strong first-quarter reporting season helped lift stocks, analyst estimates for second-quarter results have weakened. S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8 percent from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2 percent gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES. The percentage of S&P 500 companies beating consensus estimates rose to 78 percent in the first quarter after the rate had declined the prior three quarters, Ned Davis Research analysts said. 'Another reading in the upper 70s would suggest that companies have a grasp not only on tariffs, but also on the broader macro environment,' the Ned Davis analysts said in a note. Reports from banks will dominate the week, including results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Among the other major companies reporting next week are Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and 3M. In focus will be whether executives indicate if they are able to forecast and make decisions in areas such as capital investment and hiring despite the still-shifting trade backdrop, Fasciano said. 'The uncertainty hasn't gone away, but I'm curious to see how much of the uncertainty they feel they have a better understanding of in terms of longer-term plans,' Fasciano said. The impact of tariffs will also be at issue with the consumer price index for June, due on Tuesday, which will shed light on inflation trends. CPI is expected to increase 0.3 percent on a monthly basis, an acceleration from the prior month, according to economists polled by Reuters. A busy week of economic data will also be highlighted by monthly retail sales on Thursday. Investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, but central bank officials have cited worries that tariffs will drive inflation higher as reasons for holding off on changing monetary policy. The S&P 500 is up nearly 7 percent in 2025, just over halfway through the year. In the latest sign of positive stock momentum, Nvidia Corp this week became the first publicly traded company to hit $4 trillion in market value, fueled by a massive run for AI chipmaker's stock price. Stocks have rebounded after plunging in April following Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement of sweeping global tariffs. This past Wednesday was expected to be a key deadline, marking the end of Trump's pause on many of the harsh 'reciprocal' tariffs he unveiled in April. This week, he launched an array of levies, many scheduled to take effect on August 1. Still, most investors appear to be banking on the US avoiding higher tariff rates as Washington strikes deals in coming weeks with trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. 'That's what the market has built in,' Saglimbene said. 'If we don't get that, then I think there is probably some risk that we would see some higher near-term volatility if the White House actually implements some of these aggressive tariff measures.' — Reuters
Economic Times
12-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Wall St Week Ahead-Earnings, inflation data confront resilient US stocks rally
A rally that has taken U.S. stocks to record highs will be tested in the coming week by the kick-off of corporate earnings season and a key inflation report as investors hope to learn more about the economic fallout from tariffs. ADVERTISEMENT The S&P 500 is little changed so far this week, but the benchmark stock index has surged 26% since April to all-time high levels. Stocks this week largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's threats of more aggressive tariffs on over 20 countries set to take effect August 1. Trump also announced plans for higher levies on copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. "Investors are looking toward the end of the year into next year where fundamentals are better, and they are willing to look through some short-term uncertainty as they get there," said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. After a strong first-quarter reporting season helped lift stocks, analyst estimates for second-quarter results have weakened. S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8% from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES. The percentage of S&P 500 companies beating consensus estimates rose to 78% in the first quarter after the rate had declined the prior three quarters, Ned Davis Research analysts said. ADVERTISEMENT "Another reading in the upper 70s would suggest that companies have a grasp not only on tariffs, but also on the broader macro environment," the Ned Davis analysts said in a note. Reports from banks will dominate the week, including results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Among the other major companies reporting next week are Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and 3M . ADVERTISEMENT In focus will be whether executives indicate if they are able to forecast and make decisions in areas such as capital investment and hiring despite the still-shifting trade backdrop, Fasciano said. "The uncertainty hasn't gone away, but I'm curious to see how much of the uncertainty they feel they have a better understanding of in terms of longer-term plans," Fasciano said. ADVERTISEMENT The impact of tariffs will also be at issue with the consumer price index for June, due on Tuesday, which will shed light on inflation trends. CPI is expected to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis, an acceleration from the prior month, according to economists polled by Reuters. A busy week of economic data will also be highlighted by monthly retail sales on Thursday. Investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, but central bank officials have cited worries that tariffs will drive inflation higher as reasons for holding off on changing monetary policy. ADVERTISEMENT The S&P 500 is up nearly 7% in 2025, just over halfway through the year. In the latest sign of positive stock momentum, Nvidia Corp this week became the first publicly traded company to hit $4 trillion in market value, fueled by a massive run for AI chipmaker's stock price. Stocks have rebounded after plunging in April following Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping global tariffs. This past Wednesday was expected to be a key deadline, marking the end of Trump's pause on many of the harsh "reciprocal" tariffs he unveiled in April. This week, he launched an array of levies, many scheduled to take effect on August 1. Still, most investors appear to be banking on the U.S. avoiding higher tariff rates as Washington strikes deals in coming weeks with trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. "That's what the market has built in," Saglimbene said. "If we don't get that, then I think there is probably some risk that we would see some higher near-term volatility if the White House actually implements some of these aggressive tariff measures." (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
12-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Wall Street Week Ahead: Earnings, inflation data confront resilient US stocks rally
A rally that has taken U.S. stocks to record highs will be tested in the coming week by the kick-off of corporate earnings season and a key inflation report as investors hope to learn more about the economic fallout from tariffs. The S&P 500 is little changed so far this week, but the benchmark stock index has surged 26% since April to all-time high levels. Stocks this week largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's threats of more aggressive tariffs on over 20 countries set to take effect August 1. Trump also announced plans for higher levies on copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. "Investors are looking toward the end of the year into next year where fundamentals are better, and they are willing to look through some short-term uncertainty as they get there," said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. After a strong first-quarter reporting season helped lift stocks, analyst estimates for second-quarter results have weakened. S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8% from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES. Live Events The percentage of S&P 500 companies beating consensus estimates rose to 78% in the first quarter after the rate had declined the prior three quarters, Ned Davis Research analysts said. "Another reading in the upper 70s would suggest that companies have a grasp not only on tariffs, but also on the broader macro environment," the Ned Davis analysts said in a note. Reports from banks will dominate the week, including results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Among the other major companies reporting next week are Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and 3M . In focus will be whether executives indicate if they are able to forecast and make decisions in areas such as capital investment and hiring despite the still-shifting trade backdrop, Fasciano said. "The uncertainty hasn't gone away, but I'm curious to see how much of the uncertainty they feel they have a better understanding of in terms of longer-term plans," Fasciano said. The impact of tariffs will also be at issue with the consumer price index for June, due on Tuesday, which will shed light on inflation trends. CPI is expected to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis, an acceleration from the prior month, according to economists polled by Reuters. A busy week of economic data will also be highlighted by monthly retail sales on Thursday. Investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, but central bank officials have cited worries that tariffs will drive inflation higher as reasons for holding off on changing monetary policy. The S&P 500 is up nearly 7% in 2025, just over halfway through the year. In the latest sign of positive stock momentum, Nvidia Corp this week became the first publicly traded company to hit $4 trillion in market value, fueled by a massive run for AI chipmaker's stock price. Stocks have rebounded after plunging in April following Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping global tariffs. This past Wednesday was expected to be a key deadline, marking the end of Trump's pause on many of the harsh "reciprocal" tariffs he unveiled in April. This week, he launched an array of levies, many scheduled to take effect on August 1. Still, most investors appear to be banking on the U.S. avoiding higher tariff rates as Washington strikes deals in coming weeks with trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. "That's what the market has built in," Saglimbene said. "If we don't get that, then I think there is probably some risk that we would see some higher near-term volatility if the White House actually implements some of these aggressive tariff measures."
Fast Company
01-07-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
6 Questions U.S. stock investors are facing as the third quarter kicks off
The U.S. stock market completed a roller-coaster first half of the year at record-high levels but a host of factors could knock equities off their perch over the rest of 2025. The benchmark S&P 500 is up over 5% on the year so far, rebounding from an April plunge after an economic scare stemming from President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff plan. Here are some of the key questions facing U.S. stock investors at the start of the second half. WILL TARIFFS BITE, OR JUST BARK? While worst-case fears about Trump's tariffs have eased, more near-term volatility could be in store as the U.S. seeks to hammer out trade agreements in the coming weeks. A July 9 deadline on many tariffs, if it holds, could be an early second-half test for stocks. Even if some of the harshest levies are rolled back, higher effective tariffs this year still could drive up inflation and cut into company profits and consumer spending. The effective U.S. tariff rate based on announced policies has climbed to 13% from 3% at the start of the year, Goldman Sachs analysts said last week. After strong first-quarter profits, U.S. corporate earnings will be a critical gauge to assess whether Wall Street has properly factored in the fallout from tariffs. Second-quarter reports begin later this month, with S&P 500 earnings in the period expected to have increased 5.9%, according to LSEG IBES. WHEN WILL THE FED CUT RATES? Fed Chair Jerome Powell has pointed to concerns that tariffs will push up inflation as a reason for the central bank to hold off on interest rate cuts. Still, fed fund futures indicate nearly three cuts expected by the end of this year, with the first likely in September, LSEG data showed. The Fed and Powell have endured a barrage of pressure from Trump to cut rates and the president has mused about picking a replacement for Powell soon, well ahead of the expiration of the chair's term in May 2026. That move could increase expectations for more cuts but also bring turbulence to markets concerned about the Fed remaining independent. A weakening U.S. economy could also prompt the central bank to ease rates, and some signs of softening in the labor market mean that incoming data poses a test for asset prices. The latest monthly employment report is due on Thursday. IS BIG TECH BACK IN CHARGE? After a rough start to the year, technology and growth shares have retaken the reins of the market. Tech was the best-performing S&P 500 sector in the second quarter, while the 'Magnificent Seven' megacap stocks overall have surged since the market's April lows. The performance has revived concerns about a relatively small number of large stocks propelling the market, including that the advance may not be as strong beneath the surface. Many investors still expect more stocks to support market gains as the year goes on. The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 – which better captures performance of the average stock in the index – is up nearly 4% in 2025. 'I would suspect that if the market is going to continue pushing higher, you're going to need to see broadening,' said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. HOW EXPENSIVE CAN EQUITIES GET? With the market's rebound, stock valuations have also ascended. On Friday, when the S&P 500 hit its first record high in over four months, the index's forward price-to-earnings ratio reached 22.2. That was the highest level since February and well above its long-term average of 15.8. As investors seek to value equities, they are increasingly looking to future earnings prospects, including whether 2026 profits significantly improve. S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 8.5% this year and 14% next year. Another factor is Treasury yields, which tend to pressure equity valuations when they rise. While benchmark yields have subsided since earlier this year, any spike in the 10-year yield could rattle stock investors, such as if the U.S. fiscal bill moving through Congress prompts concerns about the widening deficit. WILL 'U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM' DOUBTS DENT EQUITIES? Questions about the allure of U.S. assets have been a global theme in 2025, triggered by Trump's stunning tariffs announcement in April that sparked uncertainty over American policy. The U.S. dollar recently hit its lowest level in three years against a basket of major currencies. After a long period of dominance over other regions, U.S. equities have also trailed their international counterparts so far this year. Non-U.S. equities are still relatively cheap in general, creating questions about which group will win out over the rest of 2025. WILL GEOPOLITICS RE-EMERGE AS A RISK? Stocks pulled back briefly during the recent Israel-Iran conflict before tensions calmed, but analysts are wary that resumption of Middle East hostilities could cause fresh volatility. That would particularly be the case if constraints on oil supply led crude prices to soar above $100 a barrel. Spikes in geopolitical unrest over the past 30 years have rarely been a headwind for U.S. equity returns, Barclays strategists said in a recent note. But they added that 'geopolitical risk flare-ups do motivate bouts of elevated volatility, and risk assets in general would be vulnerable should the current conflict escalate.'
