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Hedge Funds Rush Into Oil Short Bets as OPEC Supply Risk Looms
Hedge Funds Rush Into Oil Short Bets as OPEC Supply Risk Looms

Bloomberg

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Hedge Funds Rush Into Oil Short Bets as OPEC Supply Risk Looms

Hedge funds loaded up on the most bearish bets against Brent crude since October as the market braced for a fresh injection of OPEC+ supply. Money managers upped their short-only bets on Brent by 16,922 lots to 130,019 lots in the week ended May 27, the most in eight months, according to figures from ICE Futures Europe. At the same time, short-only bets against West Texas Intermediate rose to a three-week high, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Oil Prices Sink After OPEC+ Agrees to Boost Production in June
Oil Prices Sink After OPEC+ Agrees to Boost Production in June

Epoch Times

time05-05-2025

  • Business
  • Epoch Times

Oil Prices Sink After OPEC+ Agrees to Boost Production in June

U.S. crude oil prices fell by more than 1 percent on May 5, after eight major energy producers agreed over the weekend to accelerate production. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a U.S. benchmark for oil prices, tumbled by 1.5 percent to below $58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. oil prices are down 20 percent this year. Brent, the international benchmark for oil prices, erased about 1.3 percent to slide below $61 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange. Year to date, Brent prices have slumped by more than 19 percent. Allies of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC+, agreed on May 3 to bolster output by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) effective June. This is higher than the market's consensus forecast of 140,000 bpd. In a statement following the virtual meeting, officials said 'current healthy market fundamentals' facilitated the decision to adjust output levels. 'The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,' OPEC stated. 'This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability. The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.' Related Stories 5/2/2025 5/1/2025 Last month, the eight OPEC+ members—Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—announced they would increase production levels by the same amount. Industry observers viewed the decision as a way to punish certain members for overproducing, which sharply lowered oil prices. 'Remember that Saudi Arabia was doing the heavy lifting—cutting an additional [1 million barrels per day] at some point—to help the group achieve its goals, while Kazakhstan and Iraq were often accused of not complying fully with their promises,' Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. The group is managing production on a month-by-month basis, choosing July output levels at the June 1 meeting. It is unclear how far the institution is willing to go, particularly as Saudi Arabia needs approximately $90 a barrel to balance the budget, according to Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at ING. 'The key to knowing how far the Saudis will take what is starting to look like a price war is the nation's tolerance for low oil prices over time,' Patterson said in a May 3 note. 'Saudi Arabia will be able to lower its fiscal breakeven level by pumping more. Obviously, this also depends on how much lower prices trade amid increased supply.' Riyadh will need to either cut spending or borrow from the capital markets to manage the increasing gap between fiscal breakeven and lower oil prices, he added. However, according to Anas Alhajji, an energy economist at Energy Outlook Advisors, the situation could be 'less bearish than perceived.' 'The impact is less bearish than perceived by media and market participants,' Alhajji said in his May 3 Another challenge for global energy markets, meanwhile, could be slowing Chinese demand. A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, on Feb. 18, 2025. Eli Hartman/Reuters President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff strategy is beginning to affect the world's largest petroleum importer, as factory activity has tanked. 'We saw some very poor GDP numbers out of China yesterday. We're now seeing very large estimates of job growth loss from 5 to 10 million jobs. So the Chinese economy is slowing down substantially here. So what we will first want to see is a de-escalation,' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a May 1 The latest developments have prompted downward adjustments to price forecasts. According to Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude to average $60 a barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56 per barrel next year. Both forecasts are down $2 from the bank's previous predictions. The Impacts on Gasoline A continued trend of lower prices would provide further relief on the inflation front, particularly for motorists. According to the The steady slide has eased the annual headline inflation rate in the latest consumer price index (CPI) report. However, despite the enormous decline in oil prices, which account for about half the price drivers pay at the pump, gasoline has not followed the same accelerated downfall. Gas is up 2 cents from a week ago at the retail level. Even at wholesale, gas is only down 0.5 percent this year, trading at around $2 per gallon. Trump recently said the price of gasoline is 'down to $1.98 in many states.' However, GasBuddy 'Summer travel season is almost here, and it's been mostly good news for US drivers: The national average price of gas has fallen for the last two weeks, now standing at $3.15 per gallon. While the news is still positive, rumors of $1.98 gas in some states this week appear to be overly optimistic,' the organization said in late April. 'According to GasBuddy data from over 150,000 fuel locations nationwide, no station has offered a price under $2 per gallon yet this year.' In last month's Short-Term Energy Outlook

ICE to Launch MSCI® Equity Index Futures on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi
ICE to Launch MSCI® Equity Index Futures on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi

Yahoo

time27-01-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

ICE to Launch MSCI® Equity Index Futures on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi

Launch Extends Equities Access to Gulf and Indian Markets ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates, January 27, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today announced plans to launch MSCI® Equity Index Futures contracts on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi on February 24, 2025, subject to regulatory review. This launches a new asset class for trading at ICE Futures Abu Dhabi and will include: Micro MSCI GCC Countries Index Futures, Micro MSCI Qatar Index Futures, Micro MSCI UAE Index Futures and Micro MSCI India Index Futures. The contracts, all denominated in US dollars, will provide investors with a way to access Gulf and Indian equity markets and manage equity risk in the region. "The introduction of the new index futures marks a transformative step in advancing financial markets in the region and strengthening the connectivity with global capital flows," said Nabeel Albloushi, Head of Markets and Securities Services, HSBC Middle East, North Africa and Turkiye. "These products will support increasing market liquidity, provide hedging solutions and empower clients locally and globally to access and manage risk." "The MSCI UAE, Qatar, and GCC Index Futures play a key role in reinforcing the region's financial infrastructure and allow local and international investors to be part of the journey, while the introduction of the MSCI India Index Future highlights the growing importance of the Middle East-Asia corridor, enabling investors to leverage growth opportunities in one of the largest emerging markets globally," continued Albloushi. "We welcome ICE Futures Abu Dhabi's expansion into regional stock indexes and further development in regional derivatives markets," said Adam Kamyar, Head of MENA & APAC, Winton Capital. "These new instruments will further support the growing participation of quantitative investment strategies in MENA markets and the development of innovative investment products." "We are excited to team up with ICE to introduce equity index futures, leveraging MSCI's trusted index methodologies and ICE's leading trading infrastructure," said George Harrington, Managing Director, MSCI. "This collaboration marks an important step forward in providing the market with innovative tools for equity trading and underscores our commitment to growing markets in the Middle East." "ICE is building on its energy offering on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi to serve investor demand for transparent, standardized, and flexible access to regional Gulf equity markets," said Gary King, President of ICE Futures Abu Dhabi. "With this offering tailored for the Gulf region, ICE is connecting local and global investors, providing enhanced opportunities for strategic trading and risk management in equity markets and broadening ICE Futures Abu Dhabi to this new asset class." ICE is already home to the most liquid markets to trade the benchmark MSCI ACWI, MSCI EAFE, MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI ESG and MSCI Climate indexes with ICE accounting for over 70% of all MSCI Futures trading by volume. In 2024, average daily volume for ICE's MSCI complex was equal to an estimated $13.6 billion of notional value. For more information on MSCI Equity Index Futures, please visit the ICE MSCI Index Derivatives page. About Intercontinental Exchange Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE's futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world's largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity. Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading "Key Information Documents (KIDS)." Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 – Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as filed with the SEC on February 8, 2024. Category: EXCHANGES ICE-CORP Source: Intercontinental Exchange View source version on Contacts ICE Media: Jess +44 7377 947136 ICE Investor: Katia (678) 981-3882

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