Latest news with #IFO
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Moves Higher as President Trump Eases Criticism of Fed Chair Powell
The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rose by +0.30%. The dollar rose Friday on comments made late Thursday from President Trump that firing Fed Chair Powell wasn't necessary, easing concerns around the Fed's independence that could spark foreign investors to shun dollar assets. On the negative side was Friday's report on US Jun capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts that unexpectedly declined. Also, Friday's rally in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high curbed liquidity demand for the dollar. US Jun capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.1% m/m increase. More News from Barchart Dollar Gains as President Trump Downplays Rift with Fed Chair Powell Dollar Pressured by Signs of Slower US Manufacturing Activity Dollar Edges Higher with T-Note Yields Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! President Trump downplayed his clash with Fed Chair Powell, stating that there was 'no tension' between them and that he simply wants to see interest rates lowered. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 64% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Friday fell by -0.04%. The euro posted modest losses on Friday due to a stronger dollar. However, losses in the euro were limited as Friday's Eurozone economic news was supportive of the euro. The Eurozone June M3 money supply rose less than expected, and the German July IFO business confidence index rose to a 14-month high. Also, hawkish ECB comments were positive for the euro after ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said he saw little reason to lower interest rates further, and ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel stated that a steady monetary policy from the ECB is appropriate. Eurozone Jun M3 money supply rose +.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.7% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 9 months. The German Jul IFO business confidence index rose +0.2 to a 14-month high of 88.6, although weaker than expectations of 89.0. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said he saw little reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy suffers a major blow, and 'There is value in the ECB holding interest rates at current levels and the time of no-brainer moves to hike or cut rates is over.' ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel said a steady monetary policy from the ECB is appropriate because the inflation outlook has remained unchanged and the economic outlook has improved slightly. Swaps are pricing in an 18% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Friday rose by +0.38%. The yen is moving lower against the dollar today after Japan's Jul Tokyo CPI rose less than expected and the May leading index CI was revised lower, dovish factors for BOJ policy. The yen recovered from its worst levels Friday after T-note yields fell from early highs and turned lower. The yen continues to be undercut by concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. On the positive side for the yen was a report from Bloomberg stating that BOJ officials see the possibility of another interest rate hike this year, following the US and Japan's trade deal announcement this week. Japan Jul Tokyo CPI rose +2.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.0% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food and energy rose +3.1% y/y, right on expectations. Japan Jun PPI services prices rose +3.2% y/y, right on expectations. The Japan May leading index CI was revised downward to 104.8 from the previously reported 105.3. August gold (GCQ25) Friday closed down -37.90 (-1.12%), and September silver (SIU25) closed down -0.859 (-2.19%). Precious metals retreated on Friday, with gold and silver prices falling to 1-week lows. Friday's stronger dollar was bearish for metals prices. Also, comments late Thursday from President Trump reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals when he downplayed his clash with Fed Chair Powell, easing concerns about the Fed's independence by stating that there was 'no tension' with Powell. In addition, hawkish comments from the ECB today weighed on precious metals, as ECB Governing Council member Kazaks stated that he saw little reason to lower interest rates further, and ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel emphasized the need for a steady monetary policy from the ECB. Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a two-year high on Thursday, and silver holdings in ETFs reached a three-year high on the same day. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Gains as President Trump Downplays Rift with Fed Chair Powell
The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.35%. The dollar is climbing today on comments made late Thursday from President Trump that firing Fed Chair Powell wasn't necessary, easing concerns around the Fed's independence that could spark foreign investors to shun dollar assets. Higher T-note yields today are also supportive of the dollar. On the negative side was today's report on US Jun capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts that unexpectedly declined. US Jun capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.1% m/m increase. More News from Barchart Dollar Pressured by Signs of Slower US Manufacturing Activity Dollar Edges Higher with T-Note Yields Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. President Trump downplayed his clash with Fed Chair Powell, stating that there was "no tension" between them and that he simply wants to see interest rates lowered. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 63% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.13%. The euro is under pressure today from a stronger dollar. However, today's Eurozone economic news was supportive for the euro after the Eurozone's June M3 money supply rose less than expected and the German July IFO business confidence index rose to a 14-month high. Also, hawkish ECB comments were positive for the euro after ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said he saw little reason to lower interest rates further, and ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel stated that a steady monetary policy from the ECB is appropriate. Eurozone Jun M3 money supply rose +.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.7% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 9 months. The German Jul IFO business confidence index rose +0.2 to a 14-month high of 88.6, although weaker than expectations of 89.0. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said he saw little reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy suffers a major blow, and "There is value in the ECB holding interest rates at current levels and the time of no-brainer moves to hike or cut rates is over." ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel said a steady monetary policy from the ECB is appropriate because the inflation outlook has remained unchanged and the economic outlook has improved slightly. Swaps are pricing in an 18% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.44%. The yen is moving lower against the dollar today after Japan's Jul Tokyo CPI rose less than expected and the May leading index CI was revised lower, dovish factors for BOJ policy. Higher T-note yields today are also weighing on the yen. The yen continues to be undercut by concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. On the positive side for the yen was a report from Bloomberg stating that BOJ officials see the possibility of another interest rate hike this year, following the US and Japan's trade deal announcement this week. Japan Jul Tokyo CPI rose +2.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.0% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food and energy rose +3.1% y/y, right on expectations. Japan Jun PPI services prices rose +3.2% y/y, right on expectations. The Japan May leading index CI was revised downward to 104.8 from the previously reported 105.3. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -36.40 (-1.08%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.324 (-0.83%). Precious metals are moving lower today, with gold prices falling to a 1-week low. Today's stronger dollar is bearish for metals prices. Also, higher T-note yields today are weighing on precious metals. Comments late Thursday from President Trump reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals when he downplayed his clash with Fed Chair Powell, easing concerns about the Fed's independence by stating that there was "no tension" with Powell. In addition, hawkish comments from the ECB today weighed on precious metals, as ECB Governing Council member Kazaks stated that he saw little reason to lower interest rates further, and ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel emphasized the need for a steady monetary policy from the ECB. Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a two-year high on Thursday, and silver holdings in ETFs reached a three-year high on the same day. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German business sentiment rises: Ifo sees sixth consecutive lift
Germany's closely-watched IFO index, which measures business optimism in the country, rose in June despite wider geopolitical uncertainty. Firms rated the business climate at 88.4, the sixth consecutive monthly rise, and a notch up from the 87.5 reading seen in May. Business expectations came in at 90.7, up from 89.0 recorded in the previous month, and also marking the highest level seen since early 2023. The optimism comes despite geopolitical risks that threaten the German economy. A 90-day pause to so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed by the US will come to an end on 9 July, creating significant uncertainty for Europe. The EU could see a baseline tariff of 10% jump to 50% if a deal is not reached before then. Related Highest-paying jobs in Germany: Official data and job postings reveal top salaries German economic morale soars in June: 'Confidence is picking up' Added to this, President Donald Trump has already reintroduced a 50% duty on EU steel and aluminium entering the US, as well as placing a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts. In 2024, Germany posted a record trade surplus with the US of €69.95 billion. This year, the rising value of the euro may slightly hamper exports as it behaves like an extra tariff, making German goods more expensive for some overseas consumers. Despite these headwinds, there are factors contributing to the positive business climate in Germany, notably the government's pledge to increase spending. Berlin has recently approved a constitutional amendment to its 'debt brake' rule, meaning defence spending above 1% of GDP will not be subject to borrowing limits. Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants to boost military spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product by 2029. The government has also created a €500 billion extrabudgetary fund for additional infrastructure spending, set to give businesses an added boost. Germany's economy grew by a greater-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter of this year, partly linked to US tariff frontloading. Declining interest rates are also easing borrowing costs for German businesses. At the start of June, the ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2%, its lowest level in more than two years. Markets widely expect the ECB to hold its benchmark interest rate steady during its next policy meeting on 23-24 July. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German business sentiment rises: Ifo sees sixth consecutive lift
Germany's closely-watched IFO index, which measures business optimism in the country, rose in June despite wider geopolitical uncertainty. Firms rated the business climate at 88.4, the sixth consecutive monthly rise, and a notch up from the 87.5 reading seen in May. Business expectations came in at 90.7, up from 89.0 recorded in the previous month, and also marking the highest level seen since early 2023. The optimism comes despite geopolitical risks that threaten the German economy. A 90-day pause to so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed by the US will come to an end on 9 July, creating significant uncertainty for Europe. The EU could see a baseline tariff of 10% jump to 50% if a deal is not reached before then. Related Highest-paying jobs in Germany: Official data and job postings reveal top salaries German economic morale soars in June: 'Confidence is picking up' Added to this, President Donald Trump has already reintroduced a 50% duty on EU steel and aluminium entering the US, as well as placing a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts. In 2024, Germany posted a record trade surplus with the US of €69.95 billion. This year, the rising value of the euro may slightly hamper exports as it behaves like an extra tariff, making German goods more expensive for some overseas consumers. Despite these headwinds, there are factors contributing to the positive business climate in Germany, notably the government's pledge to increase spending. Berlin has recently approved a constitutional amendment to its 'debt brake' rule, meaning defence spending above 1% of GDP will not be subject to borrowing limits. Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants to boost military spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product by 2029. The government has also created a €500 billion extrabudgetary fund for additional infrastructure spending, set to give businesses an added boost. Germany's economy grew by a greater-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter of this year, partly linked to US tariff frontloading. Declining interest rates are also easing borrowing costs for German businesses. At the start of June, the ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2%, its lowest level in more than two years. Markets widely expect the ECB to hold its benchmark interest rate steady during its next policy meeting on 23-24 July. Sign in to access your portfolio
Euronews
24-06-2025
- Business
- Euronews
German business sentiment rises: Ifo sees sixth consecutive lift
Germany's closely-watched IFO index, which measures business optimism in the country, rose in June despite wider geopolitical uncertainty. Firms rated the business climate at 88.4, the sixth consecutive monthly rise, and a notch up from the 87.5 reading seen in May. Business expectations came in at 90.7, up from 89.0 recorded in the previous month, and also marking the highest level seen since early 2023. The optimism comes despite geopolitical risks that threaten the German economy. A 90-day pause to so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed by the US will come to an end on 9 July, creating significant uncertainty for Europe. The EU could see a baseline tariff of 10% jump to 50% if a deal is not reached before then. Added to this, President Donald Trump has already reintroduced a 50% duty on EU steel and aluminium entering the US, as well as placing a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts. In 2024, Germany posted a record trade surplus with the US of €69.95 billion. This year, the rising value of the euro may slightly hamper exports as it behaves like an extra tariff, making German goods more expensive for some overseas consumers. Despite these headwinds, there are factors contributing to the positive business climate in Germany, notably the government's pledge to increase spending. Berlin has recently approved a constitutional amendment to its 'debt brake' rule, meaning defence spending above 1% of GDP will not be subject to borrowing limits. Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants to boost military spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product by 2029. The government has also created a €500 billion extrabudgetary fund for additional infrastructure spending, set to give businesses an added boost. Germany's economy grew by a greater-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter of this year, partly linked to US tariff frontloading. Declining interest rates are also easing borrowing costs for German businesses. At the start of June, the ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2%, its lowest level in more than two years. Markets widely expect the ECB to hold its benchmark interest rate steady during its next policy meeting on 23-24 July.
