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Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
KSE-100 hits all-time high as investors cheer IMF breakthrough
A day after shedding over 800 points, bullish momentum returned to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index settled at a new all-time high of 120,450. A buying spree was observed throughout the trading session, pushing the KSE-100 Index to an intra-day high of 120,693.83. At close, the benchmark index closed on 120,450.87, an increase of 1,573.07 points or 1.32%. 'Market participants showed positive sentiments today, following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's statement that talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the upcoming federal budget had been successful,' Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Global, told Business Recorder. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Monday that talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the forthcoming federal budget had been successful, paving the way for a new phase of economic growth. The premier, while talking to a select group of journalists, said the government had stabilised the economy and would now shift its focus toward sustained development. Meanwhile, Samiullah Tariq, Head of Research and Development at Pakistan Kuwait Investment Company (Private) Limited, said that the government's adherence to IMF-backed reforms has 'led to sustainable economic growth'. Moreover, investor confidence also comes on the back of a continued earnings momentum across key sectors and a more stable outlook, he added. On Monday, PSX witnessed a volatile session on the first trading day of the week, as early bullish momentum was wiped out by heavy late-session selling, finally, the benchmark index closed into negative territory. The benchmark KSE-100 index shed 813.29 points or 0.68% to close at 118,878 points. Internationally, Asian shares edged cautiously higher on Tuesday while the dollar fell to a six-week low as erratic US trade policies clouded markets and investors turned defensive ahead of key developments later in the week. US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will likely speak this week, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday, days after Trump accused China of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions. The call between the two leaders will be closely watched by markets to see if the tariff-induced blow to global stocks and the dollar this year could get some reprieve or ratchet up, as trade tensions between the world's two largest economies simmer. Data on Monday showed US manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in May, and suppliers took the longest time in nearly three years to deliver inputs amid tariffs. The gloomy global trade situation left US futures falling early in the Asian session, failing to sustain the slight gains made during the cash session on Wall Street overnight. Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures were both down 0.2% each. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures advanced 0.28% and FTSE futures added 0.15%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan reversed early losses to last trade 0.6% higher, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.66%.
Express Tribune
24-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
PSX swings on budget speculation
Shares of 362 companies were traded. At the end of the day, 212 stocks closed higher. PHOTO: FILE Listen to article The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure throughout the outgoing week, with the benchmark KSE-100 index shedding 0.46% week-on-week (WoW) to close at 119,103 points, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the federal budget for fiscal year 2025-26. Market sentiment was further influenced by the release of key macroeconomic indicators, including a modest GDP growth of 2.68% year-on-year (YoY) for FY25 and a notable 5.47% YoY surge in 4QFY25, as per the National Accounts Committee. On a day-on-day basis, the PSX began the week on Monday with mixed sentiment as investors traded cautiously over pre-budget uncertainty, a widening trade deficit and concerns about the proposed tax measures amounting to Rs700 billion. The KSE-100 index recorded an increase of 40.49 points and settled at 119,690. Next day, the bourse closed bearish as market participants were anticipating the parliamentary approval of IMF-driven tax reforms, including the phasing out of industrial incentives and the implementation of new tax levies on the agricultural sector. The index recorded a decrease of 719 points. On Wednesday, the market staged a robust rebound as the KSE-100 climbed over 950 points, driven by active investors, who were encouraged by pro-growth fiscal measures and realigned their portfolios ahead of budget presentation. The index recorded a notable increase of 960 points at 119,931. However, the PSX succumbed to profit-taking on Thursday, with the KSE-100 dropping 778 points. Finally, it wrapped up the week on a negative note with a loss of 50 points, weighed down by investor anxiety ahead of the federal budget and over the proposed IMF-backed tax measures targeting exporters and industrial sectors. "The market remained under pressure throughout the week as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming budget announcement," wrote Arif Habib Limited (AHL) in its weekly review. On the economic front, the National Accounts Committee released the latest GDP data, revealing a 2.68% YoY growth for FY25, with a 5.47% YoY growth in 4QFY25. Meanwhile, profit rates across various National Saving Schemes (NSS) were reduced up to 100 basis points, where the most notable cut was seen in the Savings Account as the return was lowered from 10.5% to 9.5%, AHL said. Additionally, power generation in April 2025 surged 22% YoY (the highest in 48 months) to 10,513 gigawatt hours (GWh). The State Bank's reserves rose $1.03 billion to $11.4 billion due to the loan tranche disbursement by the IMF. Overall, the KSE-100 remained negative with the index closing at 119,103 points, down 0.46% WoW. Sector-wise, the negative contribution came from cement (339 points), oil and gas exploration (268 points), fertiliser (222 points), chemical (62 points) and automobile assemblers (55 points). Meanwhile, the sectors that contributed positively were technology and communication (62 points), power generation and distribution (60 points), refinery (45 points) and textile composite (31 points). Stock-wise, the negative contributors were Lucky Cement (257 points), Fauji Fertiliser Company (237 points), Mari Petroleum (211 points), MCB Bank (131 points) and Pakistan Petroleum (75 points). Individually, the positive contribution came from NBP (127 points), Systems Limited (66 points), Bank AL Habib (65 points), Pakgen Power (56 points) and Attock Refinery (48 points). Foreigners' selling was witnessed during the week, which clocked in at $0.29 million compared to net selling of $9.13 million last week. Major selling was witnessed in banks ($1.09 million). Average volumes arrived at 492 million shares (down 25.4% WoW) while average traded value settled at $84.4 million (down 38.4%). Among other major news, more luxury items were set to attract sales tax in the budget and the government was expected to slap GST on petroleum products and increase the petroleum levy. Wadee Zaman of JS Global concurred, saying the KSE-100 index posted mixed trends during the outgoing week, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment ahead of the federal budget, and closed at 119,103 points, down 0.5% WoW. GDP growth for 3QFY25 stood at 2.4% while full-year FY25 growth was provisionally estimated at 2.68%, down from the previously projected 3.6%, he said. Meanwhile, Pakistan was negotiating with the UAE-based commercial banks to secure external financing of up to $350 million to help meet its external funding needs. Auto financing in April 2025 came in at Rs263 billion, up 12% YoY, marking the fifth consecutive month of YoY growth, Zaman added.
Express Tribune
22-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
PSX surges to all-time high, breaches 120,000 milestone
Listen to article Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its upward momentum on Thursday, with the KSE-100 Index climbing 695.52 points, or 0.58%, during intraday trading. The current index is at 120,626.97 and surged to an all-time high of 120,699.17, maintaining a positive tone throughout the session. The index also hit a low of 120,210.56 during the early session but remained up by 279.11 points, or 0.23%, sustaining a strong bullish momentum throughout. Strong buying activity across key sectors, coupled with easing global economic concerns, helped drive the market's gains. On Wednesday, PSX saw a strong recovery, with the KSE-100 index rising by 960.33 points, or 0.81%, to close at 119,931.46. The rally was driven by active investor participation, bolstered by pro-growth fiscal measures and investor positioning ahead of the upcoming budget presentation. Read more: Despite pressure on auto stocks due to the IMF-backed tariff relaxation and revised National Tariff Policy, the overall market sentiment remained positive. Large-cap stocks, particularly in banking, oil, and energy sectors, contributed significantly to the index's gains, adding around 480 points. The refinery sector also saw increased activity after the government approved Rs34 billion in dues clearance for refineries, paving the way for multi-billion-dollar plant upgrades. Investor sentiment remained optimistic, with some stocks nearing the 120,000-point mark. Key contributors included National Bank of Pakistan (+10%), Bank AL Habib (+2.85%), and United Bank (+1.22%). However, auto stocks like Lucky Cement and Standard Chartered saw declines. Trading volumes surged to 667.7 million shares, with K-Electric leading the volume at 103.7 million shares. Foreign investors sold shares worth Rs146.9 million. Overall, the market remains buoyed by improving macroeconomic indicators, though investor participation is expected to be selective ahead of the FY26 budget announcement on June 2.
Daily News Egypt
17-05-2025
- Business
- Daily News Egypt
Disinflation still faces headwinds, but price growth stabilising and high real rates leave CBE room to cut next week
Headline inflation stood at 13.9% y-o-y in April, broadly unchanged from March. This steady annual figure is largely base-effect driven, with sequential data showing monthly price growth exceeding 1% for a fourth consecutive month. Notably, April saw transport costs jump nearly 10% m-o-m following an increase in administered fuel prices—a central component of the IMF-backed reform programme. These gains were partly offset by a monthly decline in average food prices, likely reflecting the unwinding of seasonal effects tied to Ramadan. April's inflation rate remains well above the Central Bank of Egypt's 7% (±2%) target. With credit growth still positive in real terms and further subsidy reductions expected at the start of the new fiscal year in July, the path toward price stability remains challenging. This is likely to keep the CBE cautious in setting its monetary policy stance, especially as the IMF begins the fifth review of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility programme and has cautioned against premature easing. However, core inflation has decelerated more sharply than the headline rate, registering roughly 3.5 percentage points lower in April. This indicates that underlying price pressures are relatively contained. Excluding the one-off rise in fuel prices, sequential inflation would have slowed by about 1ppt. Furthermore, still-muted growth, tight fiscal policy, and FX stability suggest that demand-side pressures do not justify maintaining a real policy rate exceeding 10 percentage points—on both a realised and forward-looking basis. Accordingly, we continue to expect a 200bp cut when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on 22 May, building on the easing cycle initiated in April. Large external deficit, but revenue momentum emerges. From this point, a pause in easing may be warranted to allow the CBE to assess underlying price dynamics. The stance will likely be influenced in part by global risk sentiment and the strength of capital inflows—both critical for currency performance. Recent data show the current account recorded a $5.2bn deficit in Q4 2024—a $1.7bn improvement year-on-year, but still amounting to over 6% of GDP on a rolling 12-month basis. Simon Williams, Chief Economist, CEEMEA, HSBC Bank
Express Tribune
08-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Global bonds rally despite Indo-Pak escalation
Listen to article Despite escalating Indo-Pak tensions following airstrikes, Pakistan's Euro and Sukuk bonds have posted notable gains in global markets, highlighting investor confidence in the country's macroeconomic management and IMF-backed reform agenda. Yields on Pakistan's international bonds have declined by 18-61 basis points across various tenors over the last 8-9 days, reflecting a corresponding rise in bond prices. "Surprisingly, yields on Pakistan Euro/Sukuk bonds in the international market have improved (prices increased) by 18-61 basis points after falling on average 160 basis points across various tenors in the last 8-9 days," wrote Topline Securities in a research report. Pakistan International Bond (Eurobond) and Sukuk bond prices are improving due to growing investor confidence in the country's economic outlook, said Ali Najib, Head of Sales at Insight Securities. Positive factors include IMF support, improved foreign reserves, controlled inflation, and better fiscal discipline. These developments reduce default risk, attracting global investors and raising demand for the bonds. As demand rises, bond prices increase and yields fall, reflecting stronger creditworthiness and stability. Ali Najib said Pakistan's Eurobond and Sukuk are traded actively in international markets, and recent developments have significantly boosted investor confidence. The successful progress on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, which is effectively on track, along with improved macroeconomic indicators, is playing a major role. Moody's had previously revised Pakistan's outlook upward, and more recently, Fitch also upgraded its rating. The Finance Minister has been engaging regularly with global rating agencies, which increases the likelihood of further positive revisions from Moody's and S&P going forward. Najib highlighted that inflation is at historic lows, a key indicator of macroeconomic stability. He added, "Last year, in June 2023, Pakistan was on the brink of default with SBP reserves down to just $3.5 billion — barely enough to cover one month of imports. Today, reserves have recovered to $11 billion with the central bank and an additional $4 billion with commercial banks. The State Bank of Pakistan aims to push this to $14 billion by June, supported by inflows including a $1.5 billion IMF tranche and a $1.5 billion rollover from ICBC, China." Commenting on the Indo-Pak escalation, Najib noted that the military developments occurred around midnight, which means international markets were likely closed by then. The full market reaction may be reflected more clearly in the next trading session. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised a total realised amount of Rs844 billion through the auction of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) held on Wednesday. This came a day after the central bank's monetary policy announcement, which triggered a broad-based decline in yields across the secondary market. Short-term yields saw significant declines, with the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month Pakistan Revaluation Rates (PKRV) falling by 55 basis points, 51 basis points, and 48 basis points to settle at 11.28%, 11.30%, and 11.28%, respectively. Similarly, yields on longer-tenor bonds also eased, with the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year instruments declining by 25 basis points, 21 basis points, and 20 basis points to reach 11.48%, 12.00%, and 12.23%, respectively. The decline in yields reflects improved investor sentiment and expectations of a lower interest rate environment going forward.
