PSX swings on budget speculation

Express Tribune

24-05-2025

Shares of 362 companies were traded. At the end of the day, 212 stocks closed higher. PHOTO: FILE
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The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure throughout the outgoing week, with the benchmark KSE-100 index shedding 0.46% week-on-week (WoW) to close at 119,103 points, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the federal budget for fiscal year 2025-26.
Market sentiment was further influenced by the release of key macroeconomic indicators, including a modest GDP growth of 2.68% year-on-year (YoY) for FY25 and a notable 5.47% YoY surge in 4QFY25, as per the National Accounts Committee.
On a day-on-day basis, the PSX began the week on Monday with mixed sentiment as investors traded cautiously over pre-budget uncertainty, a widening trade deficit and concerns about the proposed tax measures amounting to Rs700 billion. The KSE-100 index recorded an increase of 40.49 points and settled at 119,690.
Next day, the bourse closed bearish as market participants were anticipating the parliamentary approval of IMF-driven tax reforms, including the phasing out of industrial incentives and the implementation of new tax levies on the agricultural sector. The index recorded a decrease of 719 points.
On Wednesday, the market staged a robust rebound as the KSE-100 climbed over 950 points, driven by active investors, who were encouraged by pro-growth fiscal measures and realigned their portfolios ahead of budget presentation. The index recorded a notable increase of 960 points at 119,931.
However, the PSX succumbed to profit-taking on Thursday, with the KSE-100 dropping 778 points. Finally, it wrapped up the week on a negative note with a loss of 50 points, weighed down by investor anxiety ahead of the federal budget and over the proposed IMF-backed tax measures targeting exporters and industrial sectors.
"The market remained under pressure throughout the week as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming budget announcement," wrote Arif Habib Limited (AHL) in its weekly review.
On the economic front, the National Accounts Committee released the latest GDP data, revealing a 2.68% YoY growth for FY25, with a 5.47% YoY growth in 4QFY25. Meanwhile, profit rates across various National Saving Schemes (NSS) were reduced up to 100 basis points, where the most notable cut was seen in the Savings Account as the return was lowered from 10.5% to 9.5%, AHL said. Additionally, power generation in April 2025 surged 22% YoY (the highest in 48 months) to 10,513 gigawatt hours (GWh). The State Bank's reserves rose $1.03 billion to $11.4 billion due to the loan tranche disbursement by the IMF. Overall, the KSE-100 remained negative with the index closing at 119,103 points, down 0.46% WoW.
Sector-wise, the negative contribution came from cement (339 points), oil and gas exploration (268 points), fertiliser (222 points), chemical (62 points) and automobile assemblers (55 points). Meanwhile, the sectors that contributed positively were technology and communication (62 points), power generation and distribution (60 points), refinery (45 points) and textile composite (31 points).
Stock-wise, the negative contributors were Lucky Cement (257 points), Fauji Fertiliser Company (237 points), Mari Petroleum (211 points), MCB Bank (131 points) and Pakistan Petroleum (75 points). Individually, the positive contribution came from NBP (127 points), Systems Limited (66 points), Bank AL Habib (65 points), Pakgen Power (56 points) and Attock Refinery (48 points).
Foreigners' selling was witnessed during the week, which clocked in at $0.29 million compared to net selling of $9.13 million last week. Major selling was witnessed in banks ($1.09 million). Average volumes arrived at 492 million shares (down 25.4% WoW) while average traded value settled at $84.4 million (down 38.4%).
Among other major news, more luxury items were set to attract sales tax in the budget and the government was expected to slap GST on petroleum products and increase the petroleum levy.
Wadee Zaman of JS Global concurred, saying the KSE-100 index posted mixed trends during the outgoing week, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment ahead of the federal budget, and closed at 119,103 points, down 0.5% WoW.
GDP growth for 3QFY25 stood at 2.4% while full-year FY25 growth was provisionally estimated at 2.68%, down from the previously projected 3.6%, he said. Meanwhile, Pakistan was negotiating with the UAE-based commercial banks to secure external financing of up to $350 million to help meet its external funding needs. Auto financing in April 2025 came in at Rs263 billion, up 12% YoY, marking the fifth consecutive month of YoY growth, Zaman added.