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Newsweek
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
With Iran Weakened by US and Israel, ISIS Rejoices and Resurges
Based on factual reporting, incorporates the expertise of the journalist and may offer interpretations and conclusions. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. While uncertainty lingers in the wake of President Donald Trump's surprise ceasefire announcement in a war that has raged between Iran and Israel—and drawn in direct U.S. intervention—another archnemesis of Tehran lurks in the shadows. The Islamic State militant group (ISIS) operates both east and west of Iran and has also stepped up operations within the Islamic Republic itself, having claimed the deadliest operation in the nation's post-revolutionary history in January 2024. Just earlier this month, before Israel launched its large-scale campaign of strikes, Iranian officials announced the arrest of 13 alleged ISIS members in three cities and the execution of nine other suspected ISIS members charged with plotting attacks. Now, with Iran's security forces having undergone their most serious challenge to date as state institutions—as military sites and personnel were targeted on a daily basis—a group known for its ability to thrive in chaos and channel disaffected communities finds itself with a major opportunity. And with Trump's promises of peace delivered with underlying threats of further military action Iran—even suggestions of potential "regime change"—one of his former top generals believes the consequences of the Islamic Republic's collapse is something that needs to be addressed. "We should pay attention to this in our policy discussions," Joseph Votel, a retired four-star Army general who served as chief of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) from March 2016 to March 2019, told Newsweek. Votel described militant groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda as being "opportunistic by nature," noting how "they will often take advantage of voids created by a lack of governance, disenfranchisement, unemployment, lack of opportunity, and social and economic disparity to develop inroads with vulnerable populations." "How successfully they can do this in Iran is a matter to be watched," he added. "The state still controls the population, but the degradation of control will provide them with operating space in the long term, either to co-opt the population or to further utilize the area as a sanctuary for their planning and operations." Captured ISIS vehicles used for suicide car bombings are seen along with a map of ISIS-claimed provinces, in the Museum of Resistance—near the Holy Defense Museum—on March 24, 2024, in Tehran, Iran. Captured ISIS vehicles used for suicide car bombings are seen along with a map of ISIS-claimed provinces, in the Museum of Resistance—near the Holy Defense Museum—on March 24, 2024, in Tehran, History The history of ISIS is closely linked to U.S. military operations in the Middle East. The extremist Sunni Muslim group has its origins in Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which launched a violent insurgency against both U.S. troops and rival Shiite Muslim militias following the U.S.-led invasion of the country that toppled President Saddam Hussein in 2003. The Islamic Republic was a fierce opponent of Saddam, having fought a devastating eight-year war with Iraq under his Baathist rule in the 1980s. His downfall offered both opportunities for Tehran to expand its influence in the fellow Shiite Muslim nation through mobilization of paramilitary groups—as well as major risks—as the subsequent destabilization gave rise to ultrafundamentalist factions, with Al-Qaeda in Iraq, later rebranded to the Islamic State in Iraq, at the helm. Trump, in his speech Saturday announcing the U.S. strikes against three nuclear facilities in Iran, cast blame on Iran for the deaths of up to 1,000 U.S. soldiers during this time, particularly holding responsible slain Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force chief Major General Qassem Soleimani. Trump ordered the strike that killed Soleimani at Baghdad International Airport in January 2020. Washington and Tehran's rivalry dates back decades, but when ISIS first emerged in 2014, both contributed leading efforts to beat back the group's lightning advances across Iraq and neighboring Syria. The U.S. assembled an international coalition of allies and partners to support friendly forces on the ground. Iran, for its part, also deployed some military advisers, including Soleimani, but Tehran's efforts were largely carried out by allied militias from across the region, many of whom have also been accused of inflaming sectarian tensions. The so-called "Axis of Resistance" counts members from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan. But today it is in a state of disarray, having suffered severe blows in its confrontation with Israel since intervening in support of the Palestinian Hamas movement following its October 2023 attack that sparked a still-ongoing war with Israel in the Gaza Strip. With the capabilities of these groups limited due to direct attacks from Israel as well as the weakening of their major ally in Tehran, some analysts fear yet another resurgence of sectarian tension and jihadi activity in the vein of what occurred when U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq in 2011. "Nature abhors a vacuum," Kamran Bokhari, senior director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek. "If the Iranian state weakens and its ability to maintain domestic security weakens, this opens up opportunities for ISIS." He argued that "it's kind of ironic that right now the United States is fighting the other end of the geo-sectarian spectrum," with Trump having fought and declared victory over ISIS in 2019, only to now be challenging Iran. Bokhari observed this trend as part of "a causality that the United States cannot sort of extricate itself from: You weaken the Shiites and Iran, and that empowers ISIS and the likes, and vice versa." Already, ISIS appears to be seizing opportunities across the lands of its former self-styled "caliphate." In the most high-profile attack claimed by the group in Syria since the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December by a coalition led by rival Islamist rebels and earlier weakening of fellow Axis of Resistance faction Hezbollah in Lebanon by Israeli strikes, ISIS conducted a deadly suicide bombing against a church in Damascus on Sunday. Syria's new government, led by a former affiliate of ISIS and Al-Qaeda who has renounced jihadi ties in recent years, has vowed to continue efforts to battle ISIS. And while interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa has thus far largely succeeded in preventing the outbreak of another full-scale civil war, blood continues spilling across sectarian lines in Syria, with security forces accused of targeting Alawites, Druze and Kurds, among other minorities. Meanwhile, Iraq's stability may even be more threatened by the collapse of Iran's network of militia allies. "Iraq is not really a state," Bokhari said. "It's sort of held together very precariously, but it's really a collection of non-state actors: too many Kurdish groups, too many Sunni groups and too many Shiite groups." "And if this doesn't remain sort of the vassal state of the Iranians, then we can see how ISIS could emerge from both sides," Bokhari said. "And Iran is vulnerable to ISIS from both ends." During a funeral in Baghdad on June 22, demonstrators hold up a portrait of Qassem Soleimani and Axis of Resistance militia fighters from Iraq and Lebanon who were slain by Israel in Iran. During a funeral in Baghdad on June 22, demonstrators hold up a portrait of Qassem Soleimani and Axis of Resistance militia fighters from Iraq and Lebanon who were slain by Israel in Iran. Ali Abdul Wahid/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images Testing the Ties That Bind While Iran's war on ISIS over the past decade has largely focused on threats emanating from Iraq and Syria, the group's decline in these two countries has been accompanied by a steady resurgence in Afghanistan, which borders Iran to the east. Here, the group's self-proclaimed "Khorasan Province," referred to as ISIS-K or ISKP, managed to establish a small, yet extremely active foothold amid the long war between the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the Taliban. As the U.S. prepared to withdraw in 2021, Pentagon officials even floated limited cooperation with the Taliban, an original enemy of the 20-year "War on Terror," to battle ISKP. As with the new Syrian government, Afghanistan's Taliban administration has pledged to uproot ISIS presence in the country. Yet the group has managed to hold on to a cross-border presence, staging attacks in Iran, Pakistan and much further beyond. Just two months after ISKP killed more than 100 people in the historic attack at a memorial procession for Soleimani in Iran in January 2024, the group struck at the heart of another enemy thousands of miles farther away, killing some 145 at a concert being held in a city hall outside of Moscow. The suspects were identified as nationals of Tajikistan, a Central Asian state where ISIS appears to have engaged in a concerted recruitment effort stemming back at least a decade. At least hundreds of people across the Central Asian region bordering China, Iran and Russia are estimated to have joined ISIS in recent years, sparking a potential security crisis for all three powers. In Iran, the problem is compounded by an existing presence of ethnic separatist movements among sizable non-Persian communities, including Arabs, Azeris, Baloch and Kurds. Baloch and Kurdish groups have been particularly active, and Iranian officials have tied forces among them to ISIS. "There will be no shortage of separatists looking to take advantage of the weakness of the Iranian regime," Colin Clarke, senior research fellow at The Soufan Center who has briefed lawmakers and military planners on counterterrorism issues, told Newsweek, "so it's possible that ISKP could cooperate with these groups to conduct joint operations, or simply exchange weapons, know-how, or other tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs)." "ISKP may smell blood in the water and seek to make the situation worse by working in tandem with anti-regime elements to attack IRGC, Basij, or other elements of the Iranian security forces," he added. Clarke argued that such operations would also "be appealing to ISKP because of its hardcore sectarian agenda, which helps it recruit." Smoke rises from a site alleged to be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Sarallah headquarters, north of Tehran, Iran, after being targeted by Israel on June 23. Smoke rises from a site alleged to be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Sarallah headquarters, north of Tehran, Iran, after being targeted by Israel on June 23. ELYAS/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images Plotting on the Sidelines ISIS and its supporters have made no secret of their contempt for Iran, which hosts the world's largest population of Shiite Muslims, a sect of Islam they consider rafidis—a derogatory term used to describe the Shiite rejection of the first three Sunni-recognized caliphs' authority in favor of the Prophet Mohammed's cousin, Ali ibn Ali Talib. Rather than taking sides in the latest conflict that has shaken the Middle East to its core, the group has remained largely neutral in what it referred to as a fight between "the State of Persia and the State of the Jews" in the latest edition of its Al-Naba magazine published Thursday. "Throughout history, the outbreak of wars among the ranks of falsehood served the interests of truth," the Al-Naba article read. "Muslims were aware of this and rejoiced and were encouraged by it." The article went on to celebrate Israel's killing of Iranian military leaders and asserted that, "Even if Iran killed thousands of Jews, that would not make it a friend or ally of Muslims, because it is an infidel Rafidi state that wages war on us, taints our blood and is hostile to the companions of our Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace." Such language seeking to capitalize on global conflict and unrest mirrors the group's messaging upon the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. "ISKP published a great deal of commentary on Russia's war in Ukraine before its attack on Moscow and similar trends are playing out with the Israel-Iran conflict," Lucas Webber, senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, told Newsweek. "The group's propaganda has heavily focused on regional conflict following the October 7, 2023, attacks." This pattern has also been established by ISIS' efforts to tap into grievances over the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, lingering rebellion in Russia's restive Caucasus republics and Uyghur separatism in China's northwestern Xinjiang province. Thus far, Webber argued, ISKP has proven "adept at analyzing and exploiting geopolitical tensions to further its objectives," repeatedly "strategically inserting itself in regional conflicts and playing off the friction between larger geopolitical powers to expand its influence and operational reach." "By doing so, ISKP attempts to position itself as a significant actor within the broader Islamic State framework, despite facing substantial military and political pressure," he added. The developments come as ISKP increasingly sets its sight on the West, sending security agencies scrambling to intercept threats, especially at major events. In order to fuel this war machine, however, the group continues to rely on carving out strongholds in nations already beset by strife, such as Iran. "ISKP works to find and exploit security gaps in countries that are already engaged in conflicts," Webber said. "These security deficiencies often arise when states are stretched thin, dealing with multiple insurgencies or geopolitical tensions, leading to weakened oversight and response capabilities." "ISKP identifies and takes advantage of these vulnerabilities to conduct operations, recruit members, and enhance its presence," he added. "ISKP looks to increase instability and chaos, making it more challenging for affected states to combat extremist activities effectively."
Shafaq News
04-06-2025
- General
- Shafaq News
Iran dismantles ISIS-linked operatives in Tehran
Shafaq News/ On Wednesday, Iran arrested members of an ISIS-affiliated network in the capital, Tehran, according to the General Command of the Internal Security Forces Saeed Montazer-ol-Mahdi. Ol-Mahdi noted that the arrests were made following 'extensive and complex operations' in recent days by the counterterrorism unit across Tehran and the provinces of Isfahan, Qom, and Alborz, adding that the network was preparing to carry out sabotage and bombing attacks during recent public ceremonies. 'All members of the terrorist network were arrested during the operation, including 13 individuals—among them the ringleader, support teams, and suicide bombers. Explosive devices, including suicide vests, were also seized.' The command added that further details about the dismantled network would be disclosed in the coming days. Iran has also reported multiple foiled plots involving sabotage and suicide bombings. In January 2024, ISIS-K, the Afghan affiliate of the Islamic State, claimed responsibility for two bombings in Kerman that killed at least 95 people during a memorial for Qassem Soleimani. The attack was one of the deadliest in Iran in recent years. Earlier, in June 2017, a coordinated assault on the Iranian parliament and the Khomeini mausoleum left 17 people dead and marked the first major ISIS-claimed operation inside the country.
Express Tribune
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Pahalgam and the exporter of terror
Listen to article Reportedly, 1,600 civilians and security personnel were killed across Pakistan in 2024, and the trend is fiercely continuing in 2025. Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa dominate the terror landscape. We cannot forget the February 2024, ISIS-claimed twin bombings in Pishin District and Killa Saifullah, killing 30 people. Or the August 2024 BLA attacks across Balochistan in a single day resulting in 73 killed. Or, the killing of 21 Jaffar Express hostages at the hands of the BLA militants in March this year. Four days after the Pahalgam tragedy, a BLA attack led to the martyrdom of 10 Pakistan Army personnel in Quetta. Seven more soldiers laid down their lives this month in Kachhi, Balochistan. During the 20 years of the Afghan war, Pakistan saw the worst wave of terrorism ever seen in the world. Fatalities peaked to 11,000 in 2009 alone, and only with a series of stalwart operation by the Pakistan Army was the state able to control and fence this scourge of terror and protect the people and the land. Sadly, as soon as the Afghans allowed the Indians to return to their soil to complete some leftover projects, we see groups like TTP, BLA and ISKP suddenly getting reorganised, restarting a vicious cycle of violence in Balochistan and KP. It's not that Pakistan has not been trying to tell the world that India and its malicious agency RAW are behind all this. The MoFA and the ISPR have continuously been providing evidence regarding Indian hand behind the BLA and TTP terrorism. For instance, the ISPR aired the conversation between a serving Indian major and the terrorist Majeed planning the Jaffar Express hijacking. Pakistan's capture of Kulbhushan Jadhav in 2016 is another irrefutable evidence of their malicious presence on our soil. In November 2023, The Intercept leaked a report claiming that RAW is running assassination plots against Sikh and Kashmiri separatists, both inside Pakistan and abroad. This was a month after Hardeep Nijjar was assassinated in Canada, following which the US and Canada disclosed plots for assassination of more Sikh leaders on their soils. In the same month, eight Indian former naval officers, accused of spying for Israel, were given death penalty in Qatar. It seems that India not only buys weapons from Israel, but also shares ideologies, like the ideology of genocide and apartheid; of death-squads and espionage; of breaking international laws and breaching the sovereignty of other states with impunity; of making all sorts of temporary laws and breaking the constitution every now and then just to kill, abuse, rape and dehumanise their internal or adjacent Muslim populations at will. There is another common trait to be identified, the trait of yelling out the lie, crying full throttle, in national and international media and forms, with so much repetition of false rhetoric — that lies start sounding like truths and truths become the unknown-knowns. Hence wise India has propagated an unceasing campaign of calling Pakistan the hub and exporter of terrorism. In January, The Washington Post published a report detailing an assassination programme executed by RAW to kill about half a dozen individuals in Pakistan from 2021 onwards. Just like Israel goes right inside Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran to kill its enemies, not feeling the slightest remorse, like a criminal or a coward, rather being proud of their ignobility. Just like that, Modi, in false pride, in 2016, uttered in his Independence Day speech that "people of Balochistan, Gilgit and PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) have thanked me a lot in past few days, I am grateful to them." Clearly, it is not the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and Azad Kashmir who are thanking the biggest-threat-to-Pakistan; rather it is Indian assets, spies, criminal gangs that India/RAW approaches and engages for terrorist acts, and separatist militant groups that India funds and arms so that they can commit crimes against humanity inside Pakistan, at India's behest, who are thanking Modi. RAW is more than just a Research and Analysis Wing, it has become a wing of assassinations and terrorism. RAW has enabled India to export terror to the four corners of the world. And more, it has made India an expert of false-flag operations. From Mumbai 26/11 to Pulwama to Pahalgam, India makes it happen and before an hour passes, before any evidence-collection or inquiry, it blames Pakistan and starts its aggression. The mere fact that no inquiry is made is a proof of the fact the India knows in advance how it happened and what its next steps will be. It's amazing to imagine what lurks in the top echelons of Indian political and defence framework. No professionalism, no humanism, no rule of law, only barbaric brute sense of hate and vengeance - is that the mere force that drives India — the 1.46 billion people? Perhaps this is the reason why, Indian armed forces have disappointed their people, because India invests more on espionage and covert interventions, and less on professional training and discipline. True that we are in an age of hybrid warfare, but not true that it can replace professional competency and proficiency. News that Israeli experts were assisting the Indian Army in their attacks on Pakistan is a question mark on Indian handicap in fighting a war. You can buy weapons from others but you have to fight it yourself. Israel cannot lend you bravery, they lack it themselves. War is not a viable option between the two nuclear-armed states. Nevertheless, it has given a much-needed case study in 5th Generation Warfare. The advance from 4th to 5th generation warfare was in essence an advance to technological superiority and networking warfare that lead to stealth. Non-kinetic means are employed along with pre-attack pinpointing, jamming and sabotage of enemy's networking nodes, followed by precision targeting. Once the enemy is disoriented by disruption of its communication and compromise of its attack-centres, precision firepower becomes overwhelming. Perhaps that was the critical intelligence JD Vance and Marco Rubio were pointing to; India's networking nodes had been compromised, and it was on the verge of humiliating defeat — ceasefire was the best option. Hats off to Pakistan Army's war-room and to the brave hearts of the PAF, who always put the soil above their souls!
