Latest news with #ISMManufacturingPMI
USA Today
4 days ago
- Business
- USA Today
How Trump tariffs make American manufacturers grate, not greater
How Trump tariffs make American manufacturers grate, not greater One of the key promises behind President Donald Trump's tariff strategy was to revive U.S. manufacturing. But the policies intended to lay that foundation are currently having the opposite effect. During the past three months, as President Donald Trump and his administration have worked to finalize tariff rates across dozens of countries and product categories, U.S. manufacturing has contracted—according to the Institute for Supply Management's May report. '57% of the manufacturing sector's GDP contracted in May," Susan Spence, chair of the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said during a press briefing Monday. "That's up from 41% in April. The contraction is deepening.' Exclusive: Trump pushes countries for best offers as tariff deadline looms Manufacturing continued to contract in May The institute's Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.5% in May, 0.2 percentage points lower than April's 48.7%. A number consistently below 50% means manufacturing is contracting. \"The headwinds from tariff increases are starting to show up in economic data," wrote Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica. "The ISM Manufacturing PMI reports that tariffs are a drag on business, as is the uncertainty about where tariffs will settle over the longer term." As part of its monthly reports, the Institute for Supply Management includes anonymous quote from its survey panel on current business conditions. In the latest release, every comment touched on tariffs. One manufacturing manager expressed cautious optimism over the easing of tariffs in May—but remained concerned about the ongoing uncertainty. 'Tariff whiplash continues while the easing of tariff rates between the U.S. and China in May was welcome news, the question is what happens in 90 days. We are doing extensive work to make contingency plans, which is hugely distracting from strategic work." What manufacturing managers said about tariffs in May Below, managers from various industries reported how tariffs affected their organization in May, according to those quoted in the Institute for Supply Management's release: Trump administration asks for countries' best offers 'Production is frozen," Spence said Monday. "Growth can't resume until we get clarity on tariff policy.' Could some of the uncertainty surrounding tariffs be resolved soon? An exclusive report from Reuters on Monday said the Trump administration has set a deadline of June 4 for countries to give the United States their best and final tariff offers. The deadline would give the administration five weeks before its July 8 deadline, or 90-day pause, that they set on April 9. US economy is still growing While Monday's report wasn't upbeat for manufacturers, it did show that the broader economy is still growing. If the manufacturing index remains over 42.3%, it generally indicates that the economy is still expanding. "Goods-producing sectors of the economy will likely contract in 2025," Adams wrote. "However, service-providing industries, which account for most economic activity and employment, are likely to keep growing and help the economy avoid a recession."
See - Sada Elbalad
4 days ago
- Business
- See - Sada Elbalad
Gold Gains EGP 85 as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive Rally
Waleed Farouk Gold prices in local Egyptian markets rose on Monday, supported by a global increase in gold ounce prices, a weaker US dollar, and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Gold prices in Egypt climbed by EGP 85 during today's trading compared to the closing levels on Saturday. The price of 21-karat gold reached EGP 4,685 per gram, while the global gold ounce price rose by $64 to reach $3,364. In detail: 24-karat gold: EGP 5,354 per gram 18-karat gold: EGP 4,016 per gram 14-karat gold: EGP 3,124 per gram Gold sovereign (8 grams of 21K): EGP 37,480 Last month, gold prices in local markets declined by EGP 130. The 21-karat gram opened May at EGP 4,730 and ended the month at EGP 4,600. Meanwhile, the global gold ounce fell by $10—from $3,300 to $3,290. The recent surge in gold prices is largely attributed to a weakening US dollar and increased market anticipation of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The dollar's decline followed the release of the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which showed that annual inflation slowed to 2.1%—its lowest since early 2021—while core inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.7% in March. These inflation readings have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve could initiate a rate-cutting cycle as early as September, with a possible second cut in December. Supporting this view, Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently stated that rate cuts remain a possibility despite ongoing inflation risks. His remarks further boosted gold's momentum amid continued dollar weakness. Markets are now closely watching a series of statements expected this week from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including a highly anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which may offer clearer signals on the direction of US monetary policy and its implications for the dollar and gold prices. Multiple factors continue to support the bullish outlook for gold, including a weak dollar, cooling inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia. Growing global uncertainty is also enhancing the appeal of gold and other precious metals as safe-haven investments. Additionally, investors are awaiting a slate of key economic data in the coming days, including Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday's job openings data, the monthly jobs report, the European Central Bank's meeting, weekly US jobless claims on Thursday, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday—all of which may significantly influence Fed policy decisions. read more CBE: Deposits in Local Currency Hit EGP 5.25 Trillion Morocco Plans to Spend $1 Billion to Mitigate Drought Effect Gov't Approves Final Version of State Ownership Policy Document Egypt's Economy Expected to Grow 5% by the end of 2022/23- Minister Qatar Agrees to Supply Germany with LNG for 15 Years Business Oil Prices Descend amid Anticipation of Additional US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Business Suez Canal Records $704 Million, Historically Highest Monthly Revenue Business Egypt's Stock Exchange Earns EGP 4.9 Billion on Tuesday Business Wheat delivery season commences on April 15 News Ayat Khaddoura's Final Video Captures Bombardment of Beit Lahia News Australia Fines Telegram $600,000 Over Terrorism, Child Abuse Content Sports Former Al Zamalek Player Ibrahim Shika Passes away after Long Battle with Cancer Sports Neymar Announced for Brazil's Preliminary List for 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers News Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly Inaugurates Two Indian Companies Arts & Culture New Archaeological Discovery from 26th Dynasty Uncovered in Karnak Temple Business Fear & Greed Index Plummets to Lowest Level Ever Recorded amid Global Trade War Arts & Culture Zahi Hawass: Claims of Columns Beneath the Pyramid of Khafre Are Lies News Flights suspended at Port Sudan Airport after Drone Attacks News Shell Unveils Cost-Cutting, LNG Growth Plan
Business Standard
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
INR settles higher, Powell speech in focus
The Indian rupee appreciated 16 paise to settle at 85.39 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, supported by a weak American currency and on expectations of a further reduction in key interest rate by the Reserve Bank. The US dollar index sank under 99 mark on Monday amid renewed trade tensions between the United States (US) and China after the US President Donald Trump claimed on Friday that China had violated their trade agreement. The dollar index that measures the greenback against a basket of currencies is quoting at 98.63, down more than half a percent. Investors now await US Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May. Powell will be speaking at the Federal Reserve Boards International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington. While INR rose today, a sharp gain in the local unit was prevented due to volatile equity markets, outflow of foreign funds and higher crude oil prices. RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin the deliberations on its next bi-monthly policy on June 4 and the outcome is scheduled to be announced on June 6.
Business Times
20-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
What's next for the Fed amid the US-China tariff dance?
[SINGAPORE] As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve kept its policy rates unchanged in the May meeting, with a target Fed funds range of 4.25 to 4.5 per cent. This was the third consecutive meeting in which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members kept policy rates on hold. While policymakers made some tweaks to the FOMC policy statement, there had been nothing major. That said, the press conference carried a more hawkish undertone and reinforces the Fed's comfort in staying cautious, in a wait-and-see mode. First, Fed chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the central bank is in a good place as the US economy remains solid, expressing that the right approach is to wait for further clarity. Second, he also highlighted that the Fed is not in a position to act pre-emptively, unlike the 2019 rate cuts. Third, the Fed acknowledged higher stagflation risks and the conflict between its dual mandate – price stability and maximum sustainable employment. When asked about this conflict, Powell mentioned that 'without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of labour market strength', suggesting that inflation might still be a key priority in this battle. Cautious stance We think macro developments since March's FOMC meeting further justify the Fed's cautious stance. Hard economic data (reported and measured data) has continued to diverge from soft data (surveys and sentiments). Broadly, the former remains resilient while the latter has steadily weakened, signifying growing economic weakness driven by concerns surrounding the trade and regulation uncertainties. Broadly, we see positive hard data across key economic areas such as labour market and inflation in April. Non-farm payroll continues to grow, with job creation averaging around 148,000 a month year-to-date. The US unemployment rate has remained flat over the past two months, while jobless claims remain range-bound. Meanwhile, US inflation prints – both the consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures – have also softened in March (and even April for CPI), pointing to easing price pressure pre-tariff. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up On the other hand, soft data has demonstrated signs of weakness, fuelled by the trade uncertainties. The widely watched ISM Manufacturing PMI has stayed in contraction territory (below 50) for several months, while the National Federation of Independent Business' small business optimism index has also dropped to levels associated with economic weakness. Inflation Regarding inflation, the University of Michigan survey showed that inflation expectations – both short and long term – surged in April (and May). This can also be observed from April's consumer inflation expectation index from Conference Board's survey, which soared in April. Considering the recent macro developments and ongoing uncertainties, we think the Fed's recent decision to hold rates was no surprise. While the risk of a US stagflation has somewhat moderated given the recent US-China trade truce, we believe the situation remains fluid and do not discount the potential inflationary risk. To us, the Fed remains stuck between a rock and a hard place – holding rates to combat inflation or cutting rates to support growth. We expect the Fed to remain cautious and is in no rush to cut rates unless macro data deteriorates. With the Fed being data-dependent, we think an accelerated weakening in the labour market data may convince policymakers to cut rates. That said, we are not there yet and should the situation materialise, the room for rate cuts may likely be limited given the inflation concerns. Amid this policy and macro backdrop, we maintain our preference for shorter-duration fixed income, which should continue to generate attractive income while keeping duration risk low. Short-end rates, particularly one-year and below, should remain anchored and attractive given the cautious policy stance and potentially limited room for Fed rate cuts. At the same time, long-term inflation risks may also be underpriced if higher tariffs go through. This would not only put upward pressure on long-end yields but also spur greater interest rate volatility, which can create wilder price swings for longer-tenor fixed income. In our view, long-end rates are not offering sufficient yield over the short-end to justify such risk. For investors looking to add duration or lock in yields, we believe it pays to be selective. Corporate bonds provide better opportunities at the moment, as the yield pickup is more favourable on the longer end, with an upwards sloping corporate yield curve (compared to the US treasury curve). That said, amid the trade and growth uncertainties, it is prudent to climb up the credit ladder and we prefer higher-quality corporate bonds. The writer is a portfolio manager of the Bondsupermart team at iFast Financial, the Singapore subsidiary of SGX mainboard-listed iFast Corporation
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Schwab Trading Activity Index™: STAX Score Drops Amid March Uncertainty
Schwab clients were sellers of equities in March; Net selling was highest in the Information Technology, Energy, and Health Care sectors WESTLAKE, Texas, April 07, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 48.36 in March, down from its score of 51.94 in February. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab's millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month. The reading for the four-week period ending March 28, 2025, ranks "moderate low" compared to historic averages. "Schwab clients decreased their market exposure by offloading equities in March, but those outflows were buoyed somewhat by buying in fixed income and ETFs, which retail traders turned to instead of picking up individual names on dips," said Alex Coffey, Senior Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab. "From an economic data perspective, the first two weeks of the month were disappointing, and although we saw a leveling off by the third week, that momentum stalled as March came to an end." Schwab clients stepped back from equities during the March STAX period as stocks slumped to six-month lows amid U.S. policy uncertainty and weaker economic data. The S&P 500 hit its highest level of the period on the very first trading day, March 3, and a steep descent followed through mid-month. Though March started with a solid expansion for the February ISM Manufacturing PMI®, economic data became increasingly disappointing as the days went by and the sharp month-over-month drop of the University of Michigan preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment to 57.9 from February's 64.7 dialed up investor worries about possible "stagflation," characterized by weak growth and rising prices. The February nonfarm payrolls report reinforced economic worries, with jobs growth up slightly from January but closely followed by the measure of un- and underemployed workers rising to 8% from 7.5% in January. In another gloomy development, Delta Air Lines (DAL) cut its first quarter profit estimates due to what it said was U.S. economic uncertainty. Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown, but turbulence in the nation's capital didn't help sentiment on Wall Street. The Federal Reserve meeting that ended on March 19 featured another rate pause and upbeat words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that appeared to reassure the market, but the Fed's updated economic projections showed expectations of slower growth and higher inflation by the end of the year, reinforcing economic concerns. Those concerns also found traction as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell into negative territory. Though February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) initially eased price fears with lower-than-expected growth, the core inflation reading in the March 28 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index came in above expectations and the month's STAX reporting period ended on a sour note as the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%. As concerns over the economy mounted, so did stock market volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) reached nearly 30 by mid-March after entering the month below 20, near the historic average. Though the VIX dipped substantially late in March, it finished the March STAX period above 21 and may have helped draw investors away from growth stocks. Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Inc. (AMZN) Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included: AT&T (T) MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) Chevron Corp. (CVX) About the STAX The STAX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, Schwab pulls a sample from its client base of millions of funded accounts, which includes accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly STAX. For more information on the Schwab Trading Activity Index, please visit Additionally, Schwab clients can chart the STAX using the symbol $STAX in either the thinkorswim® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type. Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision. The STAX is not a tradable index. The STAX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for Schwab. About Charles Schwab At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients' goals with passion and integrity. More information is available at Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn. 0425-EG0X View source version on Contacts At the Company Margaret FarrellDirector, Corporate Communications(203) Sign in to access your portfolio
