Latest news with #ISW
Newsweek
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Russia Moves in on Pokrovsk in What Would Be Huge Win in Ukraine War
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Russian forces have advanced towards Pokrovsk it has been reported, as one Ukrainian sergeant described how "things are going terribly wrong" for Kyiv's forces fighting to hold on to the logistics hub in the Donetsk region. Russian forces had entered Pokrovsk following earlier Russian advances south of the city, according to reports. Military analyst Emil Kastehelmi told Newsweek Tuesday that Russian gains on the eastern flank of the city endangered its defense but there was no immediate threat of encirclement, although the situation for Ukrainian forces could deteriorate quickly. Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries for comment. This image from June 19, 2025 shows the evacuation of civilians from Pokrovsk, Donetsk region by the forces of the National Police of Ukraine. This image from June 19, 2025 shows the evacuation of civilians from Pokrovsk, Donetsk region by the forces of the National Police of It Matters A city with a pre-war population of 60,000, Pokrovsk is located west of Avdiivka which fell to Russian forces in February 2024 and is a critical hub in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. Key to Moscow's goal of controlling the Donbas region, Pokrovsk's railroad and road connections mean that falling to Russia would complicate resupply efforts for Ukrainian troops and could enable Russian forces to push toward Dnipro to the east. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Monday Russian advances northeast of Pokrovsk are aimed at enveloping the city and creating the base of a salient to attack Ukraine's fortress belt from the south. What To Know Ukrainian military personnel said that the initial Russian infantry incursion into Pokrovsk took place on July 17, according to Ukrainska Pravda. Russian forces advanced south of Pokrovsk and were reinforcing groupings northeast of the city, according to the ISW. By Monday evening, Ukrainian OSINT analysts DeepState reported that a mop-up operation against Russian sabotage groups in Pokrovsk was ongoing. DeepState said that Russian forces had exploited a Ukrainian brigade's depleted infantry and a muddled battlefield assessment to infiltrate the city via Zvirove. The crisis for Ukrainian forces was dealt with by their 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 68th Jaeger Brigade but Russia intended to dig in and await reinforcements as a hunt continue for Russian sabotage groups, DeepState said. Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Black Bird Group, told Newsweek Russian forces had made gains especially on the eastern flank of Pokrovsk which are beginning to pose a significant issues for the city's defense. He said that supply lines are becoming increasingly threatened by Russian drones, but there is still a relatively large troop concentration in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Novoekonomichne-area. The gap between the Russian "pincers" is still a bit less than 13 miles, meaning there's no immediate threat of encirclement, "however the situation can deteriorate quickly, if the eastern flank isn't stabilized," he said. Small Russian groups seem to be able to penetrate their way into Pokrovsk too, indicating some gaps in the Ukrainian lines it seems but it appears that Russian forces have not consolidated any positions inside the city yet, he added. What People Are Saying Dmitro Shchipko, Staff Sergeant, Ukrainian Armed Forces on X: "Very... very bad need every RT, like, comment, and donation for the Pokrovsk front. Things are going terribly wrong." Emil Kastehelmi, military analyst with the Black Bird Group: "Russians have recently made more gains especially on the eastern flank of Pokrovsk, where the latest advances are beginning to pose a significant issues for the defense of the city." What Happens Next Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said Monday there had been a successful strike against Russian saboteurs trying to break into Pokrovsk as the fight for the hub continues. The ISW said Russia's redeployment of elements of two brigades to the area indicates that Moscow might intensify assaults against Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Kastehelmi said that Ukrainian forces will have to careful not to face attrition in their units on the most critical parts of the front as they try to hold onto Pokrovsk.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Russia's high military recruitment bonuses are straining its economy
Russia's high recruitment bonuses are straining its economy amid the Ukraine war. The soldier sign-on bonuses increase competition for labor, driving up wages and inflation. The country's economic boom is unsustainable, analysts said. Russia's high recruitment bonuses to sustain its war effort in Ukraine are straining the country's economy, according to a recent report from the Institute for the Study of War. Costs have ballooned for the bonuses and the labor expansion in the defense industry, Last July, Putin signed a decree more than doubling the standard enlistment bonus from 195,000 rubles to 400,000 rubles — nearly five times the country's average monthly wage. The head count drive has placed the military in direct competition with civilian industries for labor, driving up wages and prices, particularly in services, while Russia continues to pour funds into its war effort. "Russia cannot indefinitely replace its forces at the current casualty rate without an involuntary reserve mobilization, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown great reluctance to order, nor can it sustain increasingly high payments to recruits, which the Russian economy cannot afford," wrote the ISW analysts. Russia has suffered over 950,000 injuries and deaths in the war, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in June. The ISW analysts warned that Moscow is "burning the candle at both ends" by loosening monetary policy to prop up growth and expanding wartime spending. The combination, they said, risks further destabilizing the economy. Russia's "unsustainably high" payments to soldiers are likely to erode consumer purchasing power, weaken the ruble over time, and deepen macroeconomic instability, the ISW analysts wrote. The cost of Russia's war-driven economic boom Putin's administration beat its recruitment goals last year, largely by offering lucrative bonuses. Some regional governments even offered bonuses on par with the US military's sign-on payments. That approach helped fuel short-term growth. Economists at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, wrote that military spending and bonus-driven consumption were key drivers of Russia's GDP growth in 2023 and 2024. As the economy shifted toward war, the defense sector and wartime consumption benefited most. But by mid-2023, the economy began overheating, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates repeatedly. "Still, with much lending occurring at subsidised rates and the military-industrial complex shielded by public procurement, the rate hikes primarily impacted non-war-related sectors," the Bruegel economists added. Even the military-industrial sector showed signs of stagnation by late 2024. "The economy had butted up against its supply-side constraints," they wrote. With the Bank of Russia directing credit to military-linked sectors, other parts of the economy are increasingly being squeezed. Meanwhile, structural weaknesses in Russia's war economy persist even if it has appeared to be resilient so far, thanks to the influx of war-related spending. "Russia has lost major export markets for its defence products, faces rising costs from sanctions evasion and suffers from weak labour and migration policies — all of which compound its structural challenges," the Bruegel economists wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Inicia sesión para acceder a tu portafolio Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información
Business Insider
a day ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Russia's high military recruitment bonuses are straining its economy
Russia's high recruitment bonuses to sustain its war effort in Ukraine are straining the country's economy, according to a recent report from the Institute for the Study of War. Costs have ballooned for the bonuses and the labor expansion in the defense industry, Last July, Putin signed a decree more than doubling the standard enlistment bonus from 195,000 rubles to 400,000 rubles — nearly five times the country's average monthly wage. The head count drive has placed the military in direct competition with civilian industries for labor, driving up wages and prices, particularly in services, while Russia continues to pour funds into its war effort. "Russia cannot indefinitely replace its forces at the current casualty rate without an involuntary reserve mobilization, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown great reluctance to order, nor can it sustain increasingly high payments to recruits, which the Russian economy cannot afford," wrote the ISW analysts. Russia has suffered over 950,000 injuries and deaths in the war, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in June. The ISW analysts warned that Moscow is "burning the candle at both ends" by loosening monetary policy to prop up growth and expanding wartime spending. The combination, they said, risks further destabilizing the economy. Russia's "unsustainably high" payments to soldiers are likely to erode consumer purchasing power, weaken the ruble over time, and deepen macroeconomic instability, the ISW analysts wrote. The cost of Russia's war-driven economic boom Putin's administration beat its recruitment goals last year, largely by offering lucrative bonuses. Some regional governments even offered bonuses on par with the US military's sign-on payments. That approach helped fuel short-term growth. Economists at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, wrotethat military spending and bonus-driven consumption were key drivers of Russia's GDP growth in 2023 and 2024. As the economy shifted toward war, the defense sector and wartime consumption benefited most. But by mid-2023, the economy began overheating, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates repeatedly. "Still, with much lending occurring at subsidised rates and the military-industrial complex shielded by public procurement, the rate hikes primarily impacted non-war-related sectors," the Bruegel economists added. Even the military-industrial sector showed signs of stagnation by late 2024. "The economy had butted up against its supply-side constraints," they wrote. With the Bank of Russia directing credit to military-linked sectors, other parts of the economy are increasingly being squeezed. Meanwhile, structural weaknesses in Russia's war economy persist even if it has appeared to be resilient so far, thanks to the influx of war-related spending. "Russia has lost major export markets for its defence products, faces rising costs from sanctions evasion and suffers from weak labour and migration policies — all of which compound its structural challenges," the Bruegel economists wrote.
Business Insider
a day ago
- Politics
- Business Insider
Russia is making so many Iranian Shahed drones that it could soon launch 2,000 of them in a single night
The Kremlin is building its way toward a reality where it can soon launch 2,000 Shahed one-way attack drones in one night, according to two recent Western assessments. Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding, the German defense ministry's commander of planning and command staff, said in a Bundeswehr interview aired on Saturday that Russia was "striving to further increase production capacity" of its Shaheds. "They want to expand the drone attacks we just talked about," Freuding said. "The ambition is to be able to deploy 2,000 drones simultaneously." "We need to consider intelligent countermeasures," he added. In a separate assessment on Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote that Russia's per-night use of Shahed drones increased by 31% each month in June and July. "ISW assesses that Russia may be able to launch up to 2,000 drones in one night by November 2025, should this current growth trend in drone usage continue," its analysts wrote. However, they added that Russia likely wouldn't be able to consistently sustain 2,000 drone launches per day. Still, such capacity would be a stark jump from the fall of 2024, when Russia was launching roughly 2,000 drones a month at Ukraine. Shaheds are long-range Iranian exploding drones with estimated ranges of 600 to 1,200 miles, depending on the design. This year, Russia has continually increased the number of Shaheds and decoy drones it launches a night at Ukraine, recently peaking at 728 uncrewed aerial vehicles in one salvo earlier this month. Russia's Shahed production on the rise As these numbers surge, Ukraine and its allies fear that Russia's nightly attacks will overwhelm Kyiv's air defenses. "There will be 1,000 units per day and more. I'm not trying to scare anyone," wrote Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, wrote on July 4 about Russia's Shahed capacity. The Shahed is of Iranian design, but Russia has also been manufacturing its own versions of the drone locally in the Yelabuga Special Economic Zone since early 2023. Western governments and analysts say some vital parts for production come from China. In April, analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies wrote that satellite imagery showed that the area of Shahed-producing facilities has doubled since 2023. "Despite a steady flow of Shahed-136s from Iran, Moscow is heavily investing in its own production facilities," the IISS analysts wrote. Ukraine has periodically tried to strike Yelabuga with its own long-range fixed-wing drones, but it's unclear if the factories have sustained any significant damage. Kyiv's military intelligence also said in February that it had found production markings on some attack drones that mention the city of Izhevsk, possibly pointing to another production line there. NATO and Ukraine need cheaper defenses Freuding, the German general, said that against such quantity, it would be nonsensical to rely on expensive Western interceptors such as the Patriot system to destroy Shaheds. "We essentially need countermeasures that cost two, three, four thousand euros," he said. By comparison, a single Patriot system costs the US government $1.1 billion, and one of its missiles can cost about $4 million. Ukraine now uses a multilayered air defense network against Shahed waves, including surface-to-air missiles, air-launched missiles, and mobile fire groups that try to shoot down the Iranian drones with machine guns. A locally made interceptor drone, the Sting, is becoming popular, too. But Russia also fires ballistic missiles in tandem with the Shahed drones, and these require more advanced, long-range air defenses such as the Patriot to intercept. Kyiv is trying to persuade the US and its allies to provide it with more Patriot systems.
The Sun
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Sun
Russia claims capture of Ukrainian villages in three front areas
MOSCOW: Russia announced on Thursday that its forces had taken control of Ukrainian villages in three separate regions, marking an expansion of its summer offensive despite international pressure to halt hostilities. Ukraine has not yet commented on these claims. The Russian defence ministry stated that its troops had 'liberated' the settlements of Popiv Yar in Donetsk, Degtiarne in Kharkiv, and Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia. Kamianske, located along the Dnipro River, had a pre-war population of around 2,000. Degtiarne, a small village near the Russian border, had not seen Russian advances since the early stages of the conflict. Popiv Yar lies south of Kramatorsk, a key Ukrainian city. Russian forces have intensified their offensive for three consecutive months, with June recording the largest territorial gains since November last year, according to AFP analysis of ISW data. US President Donald Trump recently warned Moscow of potential sanctions if no peace deal is reached within 50 days. However, Ukraine maintains that Russia has no intention of ending the conflict and will continue its military operations. - AFP
