Latest news with #Ianchini
Business Insider
22-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Bullish retail traders are the biggest force behind the stock market's latest rally to all-time highs
You can thank the little guys for pushing the stock market to its latest all-time high. Retail traders have been on a dip-buying frenzy since President Donald Trump announced his tariffs in April. Analysts at Barclays estimated that retail traders ploughed around $50 billion into global stocks in the last month. Stock-buying among institutional investors has paled by comparison, with hedge fund re-risking remaining "modest" and their long positions in US stocks remaining below the long-term median, the bank said on Tuesday. The data suggests retail investors are largely driving the red-hot rally to record highs. The S&P 500, which weathered a historic sell-off in early April, is now up 26% from its low on April 8. "In retrospect, 'Liberation day' ushered in historic retail-driven ' buy-the-dip,'" analysts wrote. Wall Street has been keeping a close eye on the swelling appetite for US stocks among retail traders. In a note to clients this month, JPMorgan estimated that retail investors purchased a net $270 billion worth of stocks over the first half of the year. The bank added that it sees retail traders buying another $360 billion worth of stocks through the end of 2025, which could push the S&P 500 higher by 5%-10%. A separate analysis from Vanda Research estimated that cumulative retail net purchases of stocks and exchange-traded funds hit $155.3 billion in the first six months. That's the largest inflow over the first half of the year in at least the last 10 years, the firm said in a note. "Portfolio health is likely a strong factor behind elevated retail participation so far in Q2," Vanda Research's Ianchini wrote in a separate note last week. "That, plus a successful dip-buying effort in April, and a still-OK labor market may help explain why mom-and-pop traders remain a resilient source of demand for equities in 2025." According to an eToro survey conducted in May, 61% of retail investors say they're dip-buyers, with the majority buying into the market once it drops 18% or more. In particular, younger traders said they were most likely to change their investing strategy when the market was turbulent, with 91% of Gen Z investors and 87% of millennials saying that they react when volatility increases.
Business Insider
10-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Retail investors will lead a $500 billion buying spree that could send stocks soaring through year-end, JPMorgan says
A rush of investor cash is headed for the stock market in the second half, most of it coming from retail investors. That's according to JPMorgan, which predicted this week that investors are poised to inject $500 billion into stocks through the rest of 2025, and most of that will come from retail traders. "Led by retail investors, we envisage an equity buying flow of close to $500bn for the remainder of the year which would be enough to propagate equities by another 5%-10% into year end," analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday. JPMorgan estimates that retail traders have purchased a net $270 billion worth of stocks so far this year, with investors buying assets at a particularly aggressive pace in the first four months of 2025. The bank said it expects another $360 billion worth of retail stock purchases in the second half, based on its December forecast for retail stock purchases to hit $630 billion this year. It said foreign investors could add a net $50-$100 billion to that amount despite concerns that overseas buyers are reducing exposure to US markets amid the turmoil around tariffs and the widening US budget deficit. "We believe that this 'boycotting' of US equities by foreign investors is not sustainable as investors cannot avoid the biggest and most important growth segment of global equity markets," they added, pointing to the rally in the S&P 500 and the strength of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks. Foreign investors may want to see the US dollar stabilize before picking up their interest in US stocks, strategists added. But that stabilization could already be in motion, the bank said, pointing to the US Dollar Index, which has held steady at around 98 in recent weeks. Retail investors have already shown unprecedented enthusiasm for stock buying in the first half of the year, according to Vanda Research, which tracks retail investor flows into stocks and ETFs. In the first six months of the year, cumulative retail net purchases of stocks and exchange-traded funds have been the highest in at least the last 10 years, including during the pandemic stock boom, according to Vanda vice president Marco Iachini. Tech stocks have captured most of the attention. Nvidia was the "most-favored" stock among retail traders in the first half, Ianchini said in a note, with the chipmaker seeing $19.3 billion in inflows over the first six months of the year. That was followed by Tesla, which saw $11.9 billion in inflows, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which took in $6.3 billion.
