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News18
4 days ago
- Business
- News18
India's Q4 GDP Data To Be Out Tomorrow: Here Is What Various Estimates Say
Last Updated: India's Q4 FY25 GDP data: Estimates suggest growth between 6.4% and 7%, with SBI at 6.4-6.5%, Icra at 6.9%, CareEdge at 6.8%, and ICICI Bank and Union Bank at 7%. India's growth momentum picked up in the second half of the financial year compared with the first half, as per estimates. Q4 GDP Growth Data: India's Q4FY25 GDP data is scheduled to be released on Friday at 4 pm. According to estimates, the country's economic growth is expected to have increased during the quarter amid better agriculture growth, and may remain in the range of 6.4 per cent to 7 per cent. In its latest estimates, SBI pegged India's Q4FY25 GDP growth in the range of 6.4-6.5 per cent. Icra expects it to grow 6.9 per cent, CareEdge sees it at 6.8 per cent, and both ICICI Bank and Union Bank of India peg the March 2025 quarter growth at 7 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects the country's economy to grow at 6.6 per cent in Q4 FY25. In the previous quarter ended December 2024 (Q3 FY25), India's GDP growth had stood at 6.2 per cent. 'India's growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained steady," ICICI Bank said in its report. Urban demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission, it added. ICICI Bank expects gross value added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent. The difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes. Economists at Citi wrote 'resilient (agricultural) activity continues to bode well for rural consumption," adding that they 'remain bearish on urban consumption" in the first half of the current fiscal year, with a recovery driven by policy stimulus. However, economists cautioned that erratic US trade policy since the start of the year presents a shaky backdrop for future growth prospects. ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty. A separate Reuters poll taken last month found U.S. tariffs had negatively hit business sentiment, which bodes poorly for a long-expected pickup in corporate spending. Full-Year GDP Growth Estimates For the full financial year 2024-25, most estimates peg the country's GDP growth at 6.3 per cent. This is slightly lower than the government's current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the second advance estimates (SAE). In FY25, the Indian economy in June, September and December quarters grew at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively. In the year-ago quarter (March 2024) or Q4 FY24, the GDP growth had stood at 7.8 per cent. India Surpasses Japan To Become 4th Largest Economy Meanwhile, India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy according to IMF data, as announced by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam. Following the 10th Governing Council meeting of NITI Aayog, Mr. Subrahmanyam informed reporters that the current geopolitical and economic climate is favorable for India. 'As of now, we are the fourth largest economy and a $4 trillion economy," he stated. According to the IMF, India's GDP is currently $4.187 trillion, overtaking Japan's $4.186 trillion. Citing IMF data, Subrahmanyam said India today is larger than Japan. First Published: May 29, 2025, 16:07 IST
Time of India
4 days ago
- Automotive
- Time of India
Truck companies eye demand boost with ageing fleet on roads
Photo/Agencies CHENNAI: India's old trucks will help the commercial vehicle industry pick up speed on the demand highway. The average age of medium and heavy (M&HCV) trucks on Indian roads is currently at its highest at 10 years. According to truck manufacturing companies, this ageing fleet will translate into a "significant" increase in replacement demand . According to Icra's estimates, the average age of M&HCVs increased to around 10 years in FY23-25 after registering a gradual increase over the past years. "The elevated level of vehicle ageing was fuelled by deferment of new vehicle purchases by fleet owners during the pandemic period and also with the domestic M&HCV (trucks) volumes staying flattish y-o-y in FY24 and registering a 4% y-o-y decline in FY25," said Kinjal Shah, senior VP, Icra. "With this, the average M&HCV vehicle age presently remains the highest in the past two decades," added Shah. Already truck manufacturing companies are taking note of this opportunity. "The outlook for the truck industry in FY26 takes into account the all-time high ageing of the truck fleet, which means fleet replacement will definitely happen. The demand pull will be predominantly in the M&HCV segment because the fleet is higher vintage there," said Shenu Agarwal, MD & CEO, Ashok Leyland. Vinod Aggarwal, MD & CEO, Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles said, "Replacement demand will be very strong, particularly since with improved road infrastructure, the new trucks are running around 15,000km to 20,000km per month compared to around 8000km to 10,000km that older trucks manage." Newer products, packed with telematics, offer more rigorous usage and faster turnaround time, he added. Currently replacement demand is 60% of the medium and heavy truck sales. However, overall sales have still not reached the 2018-19 peak of 2,95,000 units (it was 2,48,000 units in FY25). Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
India's power demand to grow 5.5% in FY26: Icra
New Delhi: Power demand is expected to grow 5-5.5% in the current fiscal year, according to estimates by Icra Ltd. Although this is higher than the 4.2% growth last fiscal (FY25), it would be slower than the 7-9% growth seen in FY 2022-24. The projected growth is lower than expected GDP growth for this fiscal year at 6.5%. Analysts suggest that had the country not seen an early onset of the monsoon, the power demand would have been much closer to the GDP growth rate. "Icra projects the full-year demand growth for FY2026 at 5.0-5.5%, lower than its expectation for the GDP growth for this fiscal (6.5%). This is owing to the early onset of the monsoon and expectations of an above average monsoon, which dampens the demand for cooling as well as demand from the agriculture segment. While the demand growth in FY2026 is expected to be higher than the 4.2% reported in FY2025, it is expected to trail the over-8% growth seen during FY2022-2024," said a statement from Icra. It said the total generation capacity addition in FY25 may reach 44 GW, including both thermal and renewable, logging a 29.41% increase compared with 34 GW in FY24, with the overall installed power generation capacity reaching close to 520 GW by March 2026. The rating agency also projected the all-India thermal plant load factor (PLF) level to remain flat at 70% in FY2026 against 69.5% in FY2025. PLF measures how efficiently a plant utilizes its capacity. Icra attributed this increase in PLF to the growth in generation expected from renewable sources and 9-10 GW capacity addition expected in the thermal segment in FY2026. 'Over the next five years, Icra expects the electricity demand to achieve a healthy compounded annual growth rate CAGR of 6-6.5%, higher than the 5% CAGR achieved over the past decade, driven by the demand from rising adoption of electric vehicles, green hydrogen and the increase in data centre capacity,' said Vikram V, vice president & co-group head - corporate ratings, Icra. The thermal segment is expected to add 9-10 GW capacity in FY2026, with the balance largely contributed by renewables. While renewable energy would remain the key driver of the generation capacity addition going forward, Icra said thermal has seen an increase in under-construction capacity over the past 12 months and currently stands at over 40 GW. The statement also noted that the coal stock for domestic power plants is at a five-year high at around 20 days as of 21 May 21, following improved supply and a slowdown in thermal generation growth. It said distribution companies' losses at the all-India level had witnessed a decline in FY2024 over FY2023, led by higher tariff and subsidy along with the revenue grants from state governments to fund previous year's losses. However, the gap between the cost of supply and tariff realization persists across most states. Moreover, the gross debt for state-owned discoms' witnessed a sharp increase to Rs. 7.4 trillion as of March 2024 from Rs. 6.6 trillion in March 2024, driven by debt availed to clear the past dues to generators and to fund working capital and capex amid continued losses, it said, adding that such high debt levels are unsustainable for discoms, given their current revenues and profitability. Commenting on the distribution segment, Vikram V said: 'Icra's outlook for the power distribution segment remains negative amid limited tariff hikes and continued loss-making operations. The progress in the smart metering programme along with the timely implementation of fuel & power purchase cost adjustment framework would play an important role in improving the discom finances, going forward.'
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Core sector growth slows to 8-month low of 0.5% in April
Representational NEW DELHI: Growth in the country's key core sector slowed to an 8-month low in April as six of the eight sectors slowed sharply, with three of them contracting during the month. Data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Tuesday showed the growth in eight core sectors - spanning coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement, and electricity - slowed to 0.5% in April, below the upwardly revised 4.6% in March and also way below the 6.9% in April last year. The cement sector grew by 6.7%, lower than the 12.2% in March, while the steel sector grew by 3% during the month, slower than the 9.3% in March. The coal sector grew by 3.5% in April, higher than the 1.6% in March, while the natural gas sector grew by a paltry 0.4%, above the contraction of 12.7% in March. The core sector accounts for nearly 41% of the index of industrial production (IIP), and experts said that the sluggish outcome in April will have an impact on the overall IIP numbers, which would be released later this month. "The deceleration was broad-based, led by six of the eight sectors, barring coal and natural gas. Based on the tepid rise in the core sector and the performance of the other available high-frequency indicators, we expect the IIP growth to moderate sharply to 1% in April. The healthy growth in non-oil exports may provide an upside, unless the same represents round-tripping of some imports," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ratings agency Icra. The crude oil sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month, declining by 2.8%, while the refinery products segment fell by 4.5% during the month. The fertilisers sector contracted by 4.2% during April after expanding by 8.8% in March. The electricity sector grew by 1% in April, slower than the 7.5% in March. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
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Business Standard
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Icra projects India's Q4 growth at 6.9%, FY25 GDP expansion at 6.3%
Icra on Monday projected India's GDP growth at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal, undershooting the the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February. In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively. To achieve the NSO's projected 6.5 per cent growth in FY25, the GDP growth in Q4 or March quarter should be 7.6 per cent. The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY'25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 31. Icra in its note said it projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter. Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, Icra projects a sharp step-down in the full-year GDP expansion to 6.3 per cent in FY2024-25, from 9.2 per cent in FY 2023-24. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty. Services sector exports continued to show double-digit growth, while merchandise exports contracted in YoY terms in Q4 FY2025 after expanding in December quarter.
