India's Q4 GDP Data To Be Out Tomorrow: Here Is What Various Estimates Say
Last Updated:
India's Q4 FY25 GDP data: Estimates suggest growth between 6.4% and 7%, with SBI at 6.4-6.5%, Icra at 6.9%, CareEdge at 6.8%, and ICICI Bank and Union Bank at 7%.
India's growth momentum picked up in the second half of the financial year compared with the first half, as per estimates.
Q4 GDP Growth Data: India's Q4FY25 GDP data is scheduled to be released on Friday at 4 pm. According to estimates, the country's economic growth is expected to have increased during the quarter amid better agriculture growth, and may remain in the range of 6.4 per cent to 7 per cent.
In its latest estimates, SBI pegged India's Q4FY25 GDP growth in the range of 6.4-6.5 per cent. Icra expects it to grow 6.9 per cent, CareEdge sees it at 6.8 per cent, and both ICICI Bank and Union Bank of India peg the March 2025 quarter growth at 7 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects the country's economy to grow at 6.6 per cent in Q4 FY25.
In the previous quarter ended December 2024 (Q3 FY25), India's GDP growth had stood at 6.2 per cent.
'India's growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained steady," ICICI Bank said in its report.
Urban demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission, it added.
ICICI Bank expects gross value added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent. The difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes.
Economists at Citi wrote 'resilient (agricultural) activity continues to bode well for rural consumption," adding that they 'remain bearish on urban consumption" in the first half of the current fiscal year, with a recovery driven by policy stimulus.
However, economists cautioned that erratic US trade policy since the start of the year presents a shaky backdrop for future growth prospects.
ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.
A separate Reuters poll taken last month found U.S. tariffs had negatively hit business sentiment, which bodes poorly for a long-expected pickup in corporate spending.
Full-Year GDP Growth Estimates
For the full financial year 2024-25, most estimates peg the country's GDP growth at 6.3 per cent.
This is slightly lower than the government's current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the second advance estimates (SAE).
In FY25, the Indian economy in June, September and December quarters grew at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively.
In the year-ago quarter (March 2024) or Q4 FY24, the GDP growth had stood at 7.8 per cent.
India Surpasses Japan To Become 4th Largest Economy
Meanwhile, India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy according to IMF data, as announced by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam.
Following the 10th Governing Council meeting of NITI Aayog, Mr. Subrahmanyam informed reporters that the current geopolitical and economic climate is favorable for India. 'As of now, we are the fourth largest economy and a $4 trillion economy," he stated.
According to the IMF, India's GDP is currently $4.187 trillion, overtaking Japan's $4.186 trillion.
Citing IMF data, Subrahmanyam said India today is larger than Japan.
First Published:
May 29, 2025, 16:07 IST
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
KTR lays focus on upskilling
Hyderabad: BRS working president asserted that his commitment to the development of Telangana goes beyond political power. "India First, Telangana First – this is not just a slogan, it's our policy direction to promote state's interests on global platforms," he said. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Speaking after inaugurating the Pragmatic Design Solutions Limited (PDSL) Knowledge Centre at the University of Warwick, UK, the former minister said the BRS govt transformed Hyderabad into one of India's premier automotive hubs. "Under the BRS regime, Hyderabad stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Pune and Chennai as a leading centre for the automotive industry," he said. Rama Rao credited this transformation to the party's progressive industrial policies and visionary planning. Extending his vision beyond research and development, KTR said that Telangana must aim to become the number one destination for automobile manufacturing as well. He reminded that Telangana was the first Indian state to host the prestigious Formula-E race, which underscored the state's commitment to innovation in the mobility sector. "Our govt envisioned and worked towards creating a Mobility Valley to attract global investment and build a strong automotive ecosystem," he said. The BRS leader explained how Telangana emerged as a magnet for global investments during the party's tenure in office. He recalled how global tech majors such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook established their largest campuses in Hyderabad under the BRS govt. "In just nine years, Telangana made remarkable strides in IT jobs, exports, infrastructure, and innovation. That momentum must continue," he said. KTR called upon India's youth and industries to adapt to the rapidly changing global landscape. "Our youth are proving their mettle across sectors — be it IT, life sciences, or automobiles. But to stay ahead, constant upskilling is essential," he advised. KTR urged educational institutions, companies, and govts to invest in skilling and re-skilling programmes that respond to future challenges.
Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Builder.ai Faked Business With Indian Firm VerSe to Inflate Sales, Sources Say
(Bloomberg) -- Follow Bloomberg India on WhatsApp for exclusive content and analysis on what billionaires, businesses and markets are doing. Sign up the artificial intelligence startup that recently announced plans to declare bankruptcy, faked business with the Indian social-media startup VerSe Innovation for years to falsely inflate its sales, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg and people with direct knowledge of the two companies routinely billed one another for roughly the same amounts between 2021 and 2024, documents reviewed by Bloomberg show, as part of an alleged practice known as 'round-tripping' that the people said used to inflate revenue figures it presented to investors. In many cases, products and services weren't actually provided to either company for these payments, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Umang Bedi, a VerSe co-founder, said it was 'absolutely baseless and false' that his company would have recorded expenses or billed services that it didn't receive or provide. 'We're not the kind of company that is in the business of inflating revenues,' he said in an interview. The company said that the services bought and sold to have been verified by reputable external organizations. Accusations of round tripping are 'defamatory and irresponsible,' and it's incorrect to say that the companies routinely billed each other for roughly the same amount, VerSe said. A representative for declined to comment. once valued at about $1.5 billion, is the most high-profile AI startup to collapse since ChatGPT's launch started a global investment frenzy. Its downfall shows the risks inherent in the rush to back AI startups as investors seek to replicate the success of industry heavyweights such as OpenAI and Anthropic. The London-based startup, which pitched its tech as a way to make apps with little or no coding, said earlier in May it planned to file for bankruptcy after a major creditor seized most of its reported earlier that overstated its projected 2024 sales to creditors by 300%, which contributed to the lenders' decision to seize the company's funds. Bloomberg also reported that US prosecutors have demanded that the company hand over financial statements, accounting policies and a list of its customers as part of a subpoena. has declined to comment on the subpoena. The company has acknowledged it's found discrepancies in its historical sales but has declined to comment on the scope of the alleged overstatement. collected close to $60 million in revenue from VerSe in the four-year period for services such as application development, according to people with knowledge of the situation. In turn, the AI startup sent funds to VerSe and its subsidiary, Quark Media Tech, for services such as marketing, the documents show. The two companies appear to have interspersed the timing and amount of the invoices to avoid suspicion, though each firm ultimately spent approximately the same amount, according to the people and documents. Bedi, a former managing director for Facebook in India and South Asia, said VerSe started working with around 2021, but denied that the companies were acting in cooperation or failed to deliver any services. 'There is no correlation on any timing of any payment to any partner,' Bedi said. had raised more than $450 million from investors, including Insight Partners and the Qatar Investment Authority, or QIA, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds. Microsoft Corp. invested in 2023 and announced plans to integrate the startup's offerings with Microsoft's cloud and Teams product. 'We see creating an entirely new category that empowers everyone to be a developer,' Jon Tinter, a Microsoft corporate vice president, said at the time. A representative for Insight Partners didn't respond to requests for comment. Spokespeople for Microsoft and QIA, which also invested in VerSe, declined to comment. In February, founder Sachin Dev Duggal stepped down as chief executive officer, although he remained on the board and retained his title as 'Chief Wizard' at the nine-year-old company. He was replaced as CEO by Manpreet Ratia, an investor with Jungle Ventures, a backer based in Singapore. Shortly after joining, Ratia said he planned to strengthen the company's governance and policies. Three months after taking the role, he told employees the company planned to shut down. 'With no viable alternatives, the Board has made the extremely difficult decision to enter into insolvency,' he wrote in an internal email reviewed by Bloomberg. A representative for Duggal declined to comment. VerSe, which is based in Bengaluru, is one of the largest consumer tech newcomers in India. VerSe has said that its news aggregation app, Dailyhunt, has more than 350 million monthly users, and it released a video app, called Josh, right after the Indian government banned TikTok. In 2022, VerSe raised $805 million from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and other investors in a round that gave the startup a $5 billion valuation. Goldman Sachs and Google had invested in VerSe earlier. Representatives for the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Goldman declined to comment. Google didn't respond to requests for comment. In VerSe's financial report for the year ending in March 2024, its auditor Deloitte wrote in its opinion that the startup lacked 'appropriate internal controls' over several aspects of its business, including its information technology, advertising revenue and relationship with suppliers. Those flaws 'could potentially result in material misstatement' of the company's accounts, the auditor wrote in the report, which was reviewed by Bloomberg. Deloitte did sign off on the startup's accounts for the year as 'true and fair.' Bedi described the issues the auditor flagged as common 'process control' difficulties that the company was working through and said that Deloitte found no material misstatements. The Deloitte opinion was previously reported by the Indian publication Mint. The newspaper also reported in April that VerSe's chief financial officer had resigned ahead of the startup's expected initial public offering. Bedi said the CFO, Sandip Basu, left for health reasons. He said the company currently has 'very little debt' and plans to break even by the second half of 2025. He said the company is speaking to potential advisers about an IPO, but doesn't have firm plans. Basu couldn't immediately be reached for comment. founder Duggal and Bedi have cooperated publicly and Duggal has posted on social media with Bedi. In 2023, Duggal added a photo on his verified Instagram account showing him and Bedi standing together, sporting light colored blazers, in front of 10 Downing Street, the official residence and office of the British Prime Minister. 'With my main man @ at @10downingstreet for #londontechweek,' Duggal wrote, tagging Bedi's verified account. In a later LinkedIn post, Duggal thanked Bedi for contributing to a gathering in Singapore as one of the 'incredible speakers from the extended family.' Bedi said he participated in the event via Zoom and did not travel to Singapore. He said he invested about $10,000 in Duggal's company, which was previously known as around 2017. But Bedi said he has only met Duggal 'two or three' times, noting that the London meeting was part of a broader group of tech executives and entrepreneurs. 'I don't have a very close interpersonal relationship,' Bedi said. 'I have a professional business working relationship.' --With assistance from Sankalp Phartiyal. (Updates with additional comments from VerSe in third and 16th paragraphs) More stories like this are available on
New Indian Express
2 hours ago
- New Indian Express
Why Trump is weaponising remittances
According to a report by Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a Washington DC-based think tank, the Indian diaspora comprises 5.2 million US residents who were either born in India or reported Indian ancestry or origin. Of these individuals, around 55% were born in India, and the remaining 45% were born in the United States or elsewhere. India was the third largest country of origin for immigrants who obtained a green card in 2023, after Mexico and Cuba, says a tabulation by Migration Policy Institute (MPI). Of the nearly 1.2 million people receiving a green card that year, about 78,100 (7%) were from India. The MPI further estimates that around 3,75,000 (or 3%) of the 11.3 million unauthorised immigrants in the US of mid-2022 were from India, making Indians the fifth largest among all unauthorised immigrants in the US. The Indian Diaspora in the US, which is the 10th largest in the country, stands to get most adversely affected by the new remittance tax as India is one of the biggest recipients of inward remittances from the US. About 78% Indian migrants in the US are employed in high earning sectors such as management, business, science, and arts occupations. Over 54 lakh Indians are living in the US and out of this, more than 33 lakh belong to Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) category, according to Statista. India remained the top remittance recipient in 2024. India's total remittance receipts stood at $137.7 billion during 2024 (on a calendar year basis), accounting for 3.5% of India's GDP. The annual inward remittance of $138 billion is 70% higher than India's gross FDI inflow in FY25. Therefore, strong inward remittance is a handy tool for the government of India to manage the Current Account Deficit (CAD), especially amid falling net FDI inflows (Net FDI inflows fell to $0.4 billion in FY25 from $10 billion in the previous year). According to an RBI report, 28% of India's total inward remittances came from the US – making it $38 billion of money sent to India. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the 3.5% levy on remittance could add $1.33 billion of tax burden on NRIs sending money back to India. However, the real impact is yet to be known. A finance ministry official this newspaper spoke to said the government is yet to make an impact analysis of the remittance tax. According to RBI's annual report, the average cost of sending remittances of $200 to India is estimated at 5.3% in the third quarter of 2024, below the global average of 6.6%. But this is going to change after 2025, thanks to the remittance tax. The measure could place added financial pressure on Indian nationals working in the United States, says Amarpal Chadha, Tax Partner and Mobility Leader, EY India. 'Many may be forced to re-evaluate their remittance patterns, including the amount and frequency of remittances for the purpose of maintenance of family or investment in India,' he says.
