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News18
2 days ago
- Business
- News18
India's Q4 GDP Data To Be Out Tomorrow: Here Is What Various Estimates Say
Last Updated: India's Q4 FY25 GDP data: Estimates suggest growth between 6.4% and 7%, with SBI at 6.4-6.5%, Icra at 6.9%, CareEdge at 6.8%, and ICICI Bank and Union Bank at 7%. India's growth momentum picked up in the second half of the financial year compared with the first half, as per estimates. Q4 GDP Growth Data: India's Q4FY25 GDP data is scheduled to be released on Friday at 4 pm. According to estimates, the country's economic growth is expected to have increased during the quarter amid better agriculture growth, and may remain in the range of 6.4 per cent to 7 per cent. In its latest estimates, SBI pegged India's Q4FY25 GDP growth in the range of 6.4-6.5 per cent. Icra expects it to grow 6.9 per cent, CareEdge sees it at 6.8 per cent, and both ICICI Bank and Union Bank of India peg the March 2025 quarter growth at 7 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects the country's economy to grow at 6.6 per cent in Q4 FY25. In the previous quarter ended December 2024 (Q3 FY25), India's GDP growth had stood at 6.2 per cent. 'India's growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained steady," ICICI Bank said in its report. Urban demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission, it added. ICICI Bank expects gross value added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent. The difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes. Economists at Citi wrote 'resilient (agricultural) activity continues to bode well for rural consumption," adding that they 'remain bearish on urban consumption" in the first half of the current fiscal year, with a recovery driven by policy stimulus. However, economists cautioned that erratic US trade policy since the start of the year presents a shaky backdrop for future growth prospects. ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty. A separate Reuters poll taken last month found U.S. tariffs had negatively hit business sentiment, which bodes poorly for a long-expected pickup in corporate spending. Full-Year GDP Growth Estimates For the full financial year 2024-25, most estimates peg the country's GDP growth at 6.3 per cent. This is slightly lower than the government's current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the second advance estimates (SAE). In FY25, the Indian economy in June, September and December quarters grew at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively. In the year-ago quarter (March 2024) or Q4 FY24, the GDP growth had stood at 7.8 per cent. India Surpasses Japan To Become 4th Largest Economy Meanwhile, India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy according to IMF data, as announced by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam. Following the 10th Governing Council meeting of NITI Aayog, Mr. Subrahmanyam informed reporters that the current geopolitical and economic climate is favorable for India. 'As of now, we are the fourth largest economy and a $4 trillion economy," he stated. According to the IMF, India's GDP is currently $4.187 trillion, overtaking Japan's $4.186 trillion. Citing IMF data, Subrahmanyam said India today is larger than Japan. First Published: May 29, 2025, 16:07 IST
India Gazette
3 days ago
- Business
- India Gazette
India's GDP likely grew by 7% in Q4FY25; current fiscal year GDP to settle at 6.3%: Report
New Delhi [India], May 29 (ANI): India's economy is estimated to have grown by 7 per cent year over year in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank. As per the ICICI Bank report, this marked a stronger growth momentum in the second half of the financial year compared to the first half, powered by a rise in government spending and a pick-up in rural demand, domestic travel and services exports. The report stated, 'In Q4FY25, we expect GDP growth at 7 per cent, which is much higher than GVA. This should take overall GDP growth for FY25 to 6.3 per cent.' It highlighted that India's growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained steady. Urban demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission. In terms of numbers, the report estimates Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent, while GDP growth is seen higher at 7 per cent. The difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes. A similar pattern was observed in Q4 last year, where GVA growth stood at 7.3 per cent, while GDP growth was significantly higher at 8.4 per cent. For the full financial year 2025, the report pegs GDP growth at 6.3 per cent. This is slightly lower than the government's current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the Second Advance Estimates (SAE). The report noted that the trend of lower subsidies, especially due to reduced energy prices, is likely to continue into FY26 and support economic growth. The bank also said that the main drivers of growth are unlikely to change in the near future, with rural areas expected to perform better again, helped by an above-normal monsoon. Continued government spending is also expected to boost growth further. However, exports remain a concern. While India's goods exports to the United States rose 27 per cent year-on-year in April, this pace is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months. Still, lower oil prices are expected to be a positive factor. India's Provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and Financial Year (FY25) are likely to be released with a few days. (ANI)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's GDP likely grew by 7% in Q4FY25; current fiscal year GDP to settle at 6.3%: Report
India's economy is estimated to have grown by 7 per cent year over year in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank . As per the ICICI Bank report , this marked a stronger growth momentum in the second half of the financial year compared to the first half, powered by a rise in government spending and a pick-up in rural demand, domestic travel and services exports. The report stated, "In Q4FY25, we expect GDP growth at 7 per cent, which is much higher than GVA. This should take overall GDP growth for FY25 to 6.3 per cent." It highlighted that India's growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained steady. Urban demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission. In terms of numbers, the report estimates Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent, while GDP growth is seen higher at 7 per cent. The difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes. A similar pattern was observed in Q4 last year, where GVA growth stood at 7.3 per cent, while GDP growth was significantly higher at 8.4 per cent. For the full financial year 2025, the report pegs GDP growth at 6.3 per cent. This is slightly lower than the government's current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the Second Advance Estimates (SAE). The report noted that the trend of lower subsidies, especially due to reduced energy prices, is likely to continue into FY26 and support economic growth. The bank also said that the main drivers of growth are unlikely to change in the near future, with rural areas expected to perform better again, helped by an above-normal monsoon. Continued government spending is also expected to boost growth further. However, exports remain a concern. While India's goods exports to the United States rose 27 per cent year-on-year in April, this pace is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months. Still, lower oil prices are expected to be a positive factor. India's Provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and Financial Year (FY25) are likely to be released with a few days.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's GDP likely grew by 7% in Q4FY25; current fiscal year GDP to settle at 6.3%: Report
India's economy is estimated to have grown by 7 per cent year over year in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank . As per the ICICI Bank report , this marked a stronger growth momentum in the second half of the financial year compared to the first half, powered by a rise in government spending and a pick-up in rural demand, domestic travel and services exports. The report stated, "In Q4FY25, we expect GDP growth at 7 per cent, which is much higher than GVA. This should take overall GDP growth for FY25 to 6.3 per cent." It highlighted that India's growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained steady. Urban demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission. In terms of numbers, the report estimates Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent, while GDP growth is seen higher at 7 per cent. The difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes. A similar pattern was observed in Q4 last year, where GVA growth stood at 7.3 per cent, while GDP growth was significantly higher at 8.4 per cent. For the full financial year 2025, the report pegs GDP growth at 6.3 per cent. This is slightly lower than the government's current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the Second Advance Estimates (SAE). The report noted that the trend of lower subsidies, especially due to reduced energy prices, is likely to continue into FY26 and support economic growth. The bank also said that the main drivers of growth are unlikely to change in the near future, with rural areas expected to perform better again, helped by an above-normal monsoon. Continued government spending is also expected to boost growth further. However, exports remain a concern. While India's goods exports to the United States rose 27 per cent year-on-year in April, this pace is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months. Still, lower oil prices are expected to be a positive factor. India's Provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and Financial Year (FY25) are likely to be released with a few days.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India's GDP likely grew by 7% in Q4FY25; current fiscal year GDP to settle at 6.3%: Report
India's economy is estimated to have grown by 7 per cent year over year in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank. As per the ICICI Bank report, this marked a stronger growth momentum in the second half of the financial year compared to the first half, powered by a rise in government spending and a pick-up in rural demand, domestic travel and services exports. The report stated, "In Q4FY25, we expect GDP growth at 7 per cent, which is much higher than GVA. This should take overall GDP growth for FY25 to 6.3 per cent."It highlighted that India's growth momentum picked up in H2, the second half of the financial year compared with the first half. One key reason for this is the increase in rural demand, supported by strong agricultural production. Construction activity has also remained demand has been weak so far, though it is expected to improve gradually, especially with the potential implementation of the new Pay Commission. In terms of numbers, the report estimates Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q4FY25 at 6.4 per cent, while GDP growth is seen higher at 7 per difference between GVA and GDP is due to higher net taxes. A similar pattern was observed in Q4 last year, where GVA growth stood at 7.3 per cent, while GDP growth was significantly higher at 8.4 per the full financial year 2025, the report pegs GDP growth at 6.3 per cent. This is slightly lower than the government's current estimate of 6.5 per cent in the Second Advance Estimates (SAE).The report noted that the trend of lower subsidies, especially due to reduced energy prices, is likely to continue into FY26 and support economic bank also said that the main drivers of growth are unlikely to change in the near future, with rural areas expected to perform better again, helped by an above-normal monsoon. Continued government spending is also expected to boost growth exports remain a concern. While India's goods exports to the United States rose 27 per cent year-on-year in April, this pace is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months. Still, lower oil prices are expected to be a positive Provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and Financial Year (FY25) are likely to be released with a few days.
