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Forbes
16-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Buy PepsiCo Stock Ahead Of Its Upcoming Earnings?
GERMANY - 2024/12/20: In this photo illustration, Pepsi cans are displayed. (Photo Illustration by ... More Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) is set to reveal its earnings on Thursday, July 17, 2025. For traders focused on events, analyzing historical stock performance around earnings announcements can provide a strategic edge, although actual outcomes compared to consensus expectations will be the primary factor influencing stock movement. In the past, PEP stock has demonstrated a significant trend of positive one-day returns after earnings reports. During the last five years, the stock increased on the day following earnings in 78% of occurrences, registering a median positive return of 1.5% and a peak one-day gain of 3.6%. Traders may consider two strategies for this upcoming event: Pre-earnings positioning: Based on historical probabilities, traders might look to establish a position before the earnings announcement. Based on historical probabilities, traders might look to establish a position before the earnings announcement. Post-earnings positioning: Evaluate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings announcement to guide trading strategies. Current consensus forecasts anticipate PepsiCo will post earnings of $2.03 per share with revenues of $22.3 billion. This figure is lower than the earnings of $2.28 per share on sales of $22.5 billion from the same quarter last year. From a fundamental standpoint, PepsiCo possesses a market capitalization of $186 billion. Over the previous twelve months, the company achieved $92 billion in revenue, with $13 billion in operating income and a net profit of $9.4 billion, reflecting robust operational profitability. In addition, if you're looking for upside with less volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers a viable alternative — having surpassed the S&P 500 and delivering returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Furthermore, see – Trump's Russia Math, Simplified See earnings reaction history of all stocks PepsiCo's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Returns Key points concerning one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were witnessed approximately 78% of the time. and one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were witnessed approximately 78% of the time. Interestingly, this percentage rises to 82% when only considering data from the last 3 years instead of the past 5. The median of the 14 positive returns is 1.5%, while the median of the 4 negative returns is -1.1% Additional observations for the 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings are condensed with the statistics in the table below. PEP 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Trefis A relatively lower-risk approach (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to grasp the connection between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify the pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader may position themselves as 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the connection between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. PEP Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Trefis Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings? At times, the performances of competitors can alter the stock reactions following earnings. In reality, the pricing may begin even before the earnings are released. Below is historical data showcasing the post-earnings performance of PepsiCo stock in relation to the stock performances of peers that reported earnings just prior to PepsiCo. For an equitable comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns. PEP Correlation With Peer Earnings Trefis Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), resulting in strong returns for investors. In addition, if you desire upside with a gentler experience than an individual stock like PepsiCo, consider the High Quality portfolio , which has outperformed the S&P and achieved over 91% returns since its inception.
Forbes
15-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
What's Next For AMD Stock After Recent 20% Gain
GERMANY - 2025/04/06: In this photo illustration, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. logo is seen displayed ... More on a monitor. (Photo Illustration by Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Advanced Micro Devices stock (NASDAQ:AMD) increased by more than 4% during Tuesday's trading session and has risen by nearly 20% over the last month. What factors are contributing to the stock's upward trend? Tuesday saw AMD unveil a $10 billion agreement with Humain, a startup based in Saudi Arabia supported by the nation's sovereign fund. Humain intends to procure CPUs, GPUs, and software from AMD to enhance its data centers and AI infrastructure. Overall, Humain anticipates constructing data centers with approximately 1.9 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030. Importantly, Humain asserts that the arrangement with AMD is to avoid being dependent on a single vendor for AI-related hardware. This message is favorable for AMD stock, as we have noted that customers diversifying their suppliers away from Nvidia inherently presents an opportunity, especially considering the rapidly expanding AI market. Furthermore, sovereign AI—essentially state-funded initiatives for AI capabilities—is an area that semiconductor companies are increasingly focusing on, aiming to lessen reliance on a client base predominantly made up of large U.S. technology firms like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. It's encouraging that AMD is also securing contracts in this sector. AMD's results for Q1 surpassed expectations, with its outlook for Q2 also exceeding predictions. Revenue grew by 36% to $7.44 billion in Q1, while earnings reached $0.96 per share. The growth was driven by robust data center sales, which surged 57% to $3.7 billion, thanks to increased GPU and CPU shipments. For quite some time now, AMD's CPUs have been gaining market share from Intel in the data center segment. Although AMD's GPU products do not match Nvidia's offerings at the high end, the AI surge is benefiting the overall market, with new large-scale models such as OpenAI's GPT-4o and China's DeepSeek R1 poised to drive increased demand for GPUs. As the company secures new GPU and AI data center agreements, and customers seek to diversify their chip sources, AMD stands to gain. Earlier this month, AMD mentioned that new U.S. export restrictions targeting its MI308 AI chips could cut its 2025 revenue by $1.5 billion. The company also indicated that it might incur a charge of up to $800 million related to inventory, purchasing commitments, and reserves associated with these restrictions. According to the new regulations, AMD must secure a license to ship advanced AI processors to China. This was perceived as a setback since China constitutes about 24% of its revenue. However, there seems to be a silver lining. U.S.-China trade relations appear to be improving, with both nations agreeing to suspend triple-digit tariffs for the next 90 days and making progress in discussions over the previous weekend. This fosters hope that chip export restrictions may soon be reviewed. The rise in AMD stock over the last four years has not been steady, with annual returns showing much more volatility compared to the S&P 500. The stock recorded returns of 57% in 2021, -55% in 2022, 128% in 2023, and -18% in 2024. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, consisting of 30 stocks, has been significantly less volatile. Moreover, it has outperformed the S&P 500 comfortably over the last four years. What accounts for this? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks have delivered superior returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index, offering a smoother performance as illustrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Considering the current unpredictable macroeconomic landscape concerning rate reductions and ongoing international conflicts, could AMD experience a repeat of the underperformance seen in 2022 and 2024 compared to the S&P over the upcoming 12 months, or will it witness a notable surge? We assess AMD stock at approximately $107 per share, which aligns closely with its current market price. For further insights, see our analysis on AMD Valuation: Is AMD Stock Expensive or Cheap? for more information regarding AMD's valuation and its positioning relative to competitors. Investing in a single stock like AMD can be risky. Conversely, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, comprising 30 stocks, has a history of consistently outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks have yielded better returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index, offering less volatility as demonstrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Forbes
25-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
PEP Stock To $110?
GERMANY - 2024/12/20: In this photo illustration, Pepsi cans are displayed. (Photo Illustration by ... More Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) recently published its fiscal first-quarter results, demonstrating a mixed performance relative to Wall Street expectations. The company announced revenues of $17.9 billion, slightly surpassing the expected $17.8 billion, though earnings per share (EPS) of $1.48 fell just short of the $1.49 consensus. These results indicate a 2% year-over-year decline in sales and a drop in earnings of 8%, reflecting a challenging beginning to the fiscal year. Following this announcement, PepsiCo's stock saw a 3% decrease on Thursday, April 24th. This drop seems to be partially driven by a less favorable outlook for the rest of the year. While the company anticipates low single-digit organic revenue growth, it has adjusted its earnings forecast downward to flat year-over-year, a notable change from the previously expected mid-single-digit increase. An in-depth examination of PepsiCo's organic business performance shows a 2% decline in volume, countered by a 5% rise in pricing. Regionally, the company faced challenges with North American consumer demand but gained from strong international sales growth. Of course, individual stocks tend to be more volatile than a portfolio – and in the current environment, if you're looking for upside with reduced volatility compared to a single stock, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns of over 91% since its inception. Apart from PepsiCo's specific earnings, the prevailing macroeconomic climate poses considerable challenges. Escalating economic concerns in the United States, worsened by the current administration's implementation of tariffs, are fostering a negative environment for the broader markets. It is improbable that any major stock, including PepsiCo, will remain completely insulated from these circumstances. Historically, PepsiCo's stock has shown a certain level of resilience during economic downturns, often outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index regarding percentage decline. Analyzing recent crises offers important context: Despite this historical outperformance, the current combination of weak demand and tariff-related uncertainties necessitates careful consideration. PepsiCo's year-to-date stock decline of 7% already highlights investor concerns. Several elements contribute to the existing cautious outlook: Considering the 2020 market downturn as a possible reference point, a similar percentage decline (around 30%) from PepsiCo's previous highs this year might drive the stock below $110. This invites a crucial question for shareholders of PEP stock: If a significant market downturn brings the stock toward or beneath $110, will you uphold your position or feel compelled to sell? Grasping your risk tolerance amidst potential volatility is vital in the current unpredictable economic atmosphere. Holding on to a declining stock is not always straightforward. Trefis collaborates with Empirical Asset Management, a Boston-based wealth manager whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns even during the 2008/2009 period, when the S&P lost over 40%. Empirical has integrated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; offering a smoother ride, as evidenced by HQ Portfolio performance metrics. While investors hope for a soft landing for the U.S. economy, how severe could the consequences be if another recession occurs? Review the last six market crashes compared.
Forbes
23-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
How Will Freeport-McMoRan Stock React To Earnings?
UKRAINE - 2021/10/08: In this photo illustration, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. logo seen ... More displayed on a smartphone and in the background. (Photo Illustration by Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Freeport-McMoRan is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025. The company has $47 Bil in current market capitalization. Over the last twelve months, revenue was $25 Bil, with operating profits of $6.9 Bil and net income of $1.9 Bil. For investors seeking upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative — it has outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks Key observations for one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns data and statistics are summarized in the table below. FCX 1D, 5D, and 21D post-earnings return A relatively less risky strategy is to analyze the correlation between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns, identify the strongest pair, and trade accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns correlate most strongly, a trader could go 'long' for five days following a positive 1D return. The table below shows correlation data over five-year and three-year periods, with 1D_5D indicating the correlation between one-day returns and subsequent five-day returns. FCX Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Peer performance can sometimes influence a stock's post-earnings reaction, and pricing may begin before the announcement. Below is historical data comparing Freeport-McMoRan's one-day post-earnings returns with those of peers who reported just before Freeport-McMoRan. Peer returns shown are also one-day (1D) post-earnings figures. FCX Correlation With Peer Earnings Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, Russell 2000) and delivered strong investor returns. Alternatively, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Freeport-McMoRan, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and recorded returns above 91% since inception. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Time To Buy Freeport-McMoRan Stock?
GARHAM, BAVARIA, GERMANY - 2024/07/24: In this photo illustration, Freeport-McMoRan Inc., often ... More called Freeport, is an American mining company logo seen displayed on a tablet. (Photo Illustration by Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Freeport-McMoRan stock appears to be fairly valued, making it a neutral choice for investors at its current trading price of around $33. There are a few notable concerns surrounding FCX stock that justify this valuation, even though it may seem attractively priced. Our stance is based on a comparative analysis of FCX's current valuation relative to its historical and recent financial performance. When examining Freeport-McMoRan using the key metrics of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience, the company reveals a weak profile overall. For investors seeking growth with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio may offer a better alternative, as it has outperformed the S&P 500, delivering over 91% returns since its inception. When measured by sales or profit multiples, FCX stock appears somewhat undervalued relative to the broader market. • Freeport-McMoRan has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.9 versus 2.8 for the S&P 500. Freeport-McMoRan's Revenues have seen modest growth over recent years. • The company's top line has grown at an average annual rate of 3.8% over the last three years (compared to 6.2% for the S&P 500) • Revenues have increased by 11.4% from $23 billion to $25 billion over the past 12 months (versus 5.3% growth for the S&P 500) • However, quarterly revenues declined by 3.1% to $5.7 billion in the latest quarter, down from $5.9 billion a year earlier (while the S&P 500 grew by 4.9%) The company's margins are approximately average relative to its peers in the Trefis coverage universe. • Freeport-McMoRan's Operating Income over the past four quarters stood at $6.9 billion, resulting in a robust Operating Margin of 27.0% (compared to 13.1% for the S&P 500) The company's balance sheet appears to be in moderate shape. • As of the most recent quarter, Freeport-McMoRan reported $9.7 billion in debt against a market cap of $48 billion (as of 4/16/2025), reflecting a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 20.2% (versus 21.5% for the S&P 500). [Note: A lower ratio is typically better] • The company's cash and equivalents total $3.9 billion, out of $55 billion in total assets, resulting in a moderate Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 7.2% (versus 15.0% for the S&P 500) FCX stock has underperformed the S&P 500 during some recent market downturns. Concerned about potential market crashes and their impact on FCX? See our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash, which tracks stock behavior during the past six market crashes. • FCX dropped 51.7% from a peak of $51.93 on March 25, 2022, to $25.09 on July 14, 2022, compared to a 25.4% drop in the S&P 500 • It fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by April 29, 2024 • The stock then rose to a high of $54.86 on May 20, 2024, and currently trades at approximately $33 • FCX declined 60.8% from $13.53 on January 13, 2020, to $5.31 on March 18, 2020, versus a 33.9% drop in the S&P 500 • It fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels by July 15, 2020 • FCX plunged 86.7% from $62.93 on May 20, 2008, to $8.40 on December 5, 2008, compared to a 56.8% drop in the S&P 500 • The stock has not yet returned to its pre-crisis peak Here's a summary of how Freeport-McMoRan performs across key metrics: • Growth: Neutral • Profitability: Neutral • Financial Stability: Neutral • Downturn Resilience: Very Weak • Overall Assessment: Neutral These factors support our view that FCX stock is fairly priced, making it a neutral investment at the current time. If you're looking for higher potential returns, consider the Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark index—a mix of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000—by capitalizing on bullish markets while cushioning downturns. Learn more in our RV Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
