Latest news with #Imamoğlu
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Crackdown In Turkey Throttles European Energy
Befitting its status as a country bridging Europe and Asia, the Turkish government's massive crackdown on the country's Republican People's Party (CHP) opposition party and arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and leader of the CHP, has immediate implications for the entire region. Recent events are raising alarm bells in Europe that Turkish chaos could hurt an already energy-hungry Europe, which depends on Türkiye's energy transit. Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the country's strongman leader for the past twenty-two years and has not been shy about using power against the political competition. On March 18th, the university diploma of his key rival, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was abruptly revoked on an administrative technicality. This was an attempted political coup de grâs, as candidates for the presidency must have a university degree according to Turkish law. The transparent move immediately triggered accusations that Erdoğan was trying to stifle the opposition. Next, on the morning of March 19th, Imamoğlu's house was surrounded, and he was arrested on allegations of corruption and terrorism links, just days before he was about to be named presidential candidate of the CHP. Presidential elections are slated to be held in 2028, though they may occur earlier. Writing from prison on March 23rd, Imamoğlu declared: 'I have been imprisoned on the basis of vague hearsay from a handful of so-called 'confidential witnesses'. There is no conviction against me. I am a political prisoner." Apparently, many Turks agreed. Protests broke out as soon as Imamoğlu was arrested. Despite a government ban, the demonstrations grew to become the largest Türkiye has seen in over a decade, with crowd estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to half a million and more, and spread to more than 55 of Turkey's 81 provinces. They were met with a forceful crackdown. Over 1,400 people, including journalists, were arrested. Multiple media outlets were fined for covering the demonstrations. Nevertheless, millions turned out to vote for Imamoğlu to be the CHP's candidate for president. The stage is set for a political showdown, the opposition is not backing off, and neither is Erdoğan or his neo-Ottoman, religious conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). To better understand the dissatisfaction and distrust that the Turkish population is displaying, it is worth noting that the inflation rate has slowed to a still intolerable 38.10% a year, making life exceedingly difficult for the majority of people and fueling interest in getting someone with a new outlook into power. The political turmoil swiftly spilled over into Türkiye's economy. The MSCI Türkiye Index fell by 20.9%, signaling a sharp market reaction to the rising instability. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) surged to 324, a nearly 30% increase, signaling escalating risks and higher borrowing costs. The Turkish lira depreciated further, dropping as much as 12% right after Imamoğlu's arrest, despite the Turkish Central Bank spending $12 billion in foreign reserves to save the lira after it hit a record low. The central bank also raised interest rates to 46% overnight, from 42%. Despite the Central Bank's efforts to attract foreign direct investment, recent political developments have once again shaken investor confidence. This was best illustrated in a Bloomberg report describing how, during a meeting with a Turkish economist on March 19th where they were expecting good news, Wall Street investors watched in real-time as news alerts on their phones showed Turkish stocks seeing their largest drop since 2013, eroding trust in the country's stability in just 30 minutes. Investors looking at long-term investments like energy care about the rule of law, good governance, transparency, certainty, and stability for their returns. All of which increasingly authoritarian Türkiye lacks. The recent uproar demonstrated once more that there is no guarantee Erdoğan will follow sensible policies, and that instead he is willing to sacrifice political and fiscal stability on the altar of his ambitions to remain in office at all costs. Erdoğan talks a good game about his commitment to investor-friendly economic policies; however, the damage may have already been done and will cost Türkiye tens of billions of dollars. Türkiye is not rich in oil and gas, so it has turned to renewable energy as a key strategy to reduce its dependence on costly energy imports. With energy being a long-term infrastructure investment, those looking to invest in wind, solar, and hydro in Türkiye will likely withhold investment decisions, a costly dynamic as Türkiye has publicly declared it will invest $20 billion in renewable energy and infrastructure by 2030. By creating an environment hostile to foreign investment, Erdoğan may have jeopardized the country's long-term developmental goals and damaged Türkiye's prospects for energy independence. A more volatile economic environment may also impact Türkiye's role as an energy transit hub. As an integral part of existing initiatives such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Iraq's Development Road, Türkiye has historically been key to transporting hydrocarbons between the Middle East and Europe. As Europe seeks transit routes outside of Russia, projects like the EastMed pipeline, which partially relies on Türkiye's acquiescence, could be further jeopardized amidst existing delays. As President Trump continues to decouple from Europe and fan conflict and unpredictability in relations between the U.S. and the EU, Türkiye, as a route of transporting energy resources, is looking riskier, which has a distinct impact on European energy security. The muted Western response to Türkiye's turmoil highlights how the rapid pace of current geopolitical change and uncertainty influences the behavior of nation states. Türkiye's location and strategic importance is prompting diminished criticism of its democratic backsliding. In the U.S, President Trump has made no statement condemning Erdoğan's actions. The EU needs Türkiye for its new joint defense strategies as it holds the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., and to keep migration under control. However, while many states may prioritize maintaining a relationship with Ankara, investors have no such obligations. The events unfolding in Türkiye starkly reflect the broader trends of 2025: geopolitical uncertainty and further democratic backsliding. Türkiye's latest political crackdown exemplifies both. Just as the country was beginning to rebuild economic credibility, this dramatic setback has significant financial consequences that threaten Türkiye's potential for growth and Europe's energy supply. With Erdoğan's most recent crackdown, yet another key European trading partner has joined the race to increase political risk, and this dynamic will surely limit the prospects of strengthening the continent's energy security.
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
Erdoğan's Crackdown In Türkiye Throttles European Energy
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's anti-democratic actions will have a significant economic ... More impact on the country (Photo by Adem ALTAN / AFP) (Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images) Befitting its status as a country bridging Europe and Asia, the Turkish government's massive crackdown on the country's Republican People's Party (CHP) opposition party and arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and leader of the CHP, has immediate implications for the entire region. Recent events are raising alarm bells in Europe that Turkish chaos could hurt an already energy-hungry Europe, which depends on Türkiye's energy transit. Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the country's strongman leader for the past twenty-two years and has not been shy about using power against the political competition. On March 18th, the university diploma of his key rival, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was abruptly revoked on an administrative technicality. This was an attempted political coup de grâs, as candidates for the presidency must have a university degree according to Turkish law. The transparent move immediately triggered accusations that Erdoğan was trying to stifle the opposition. Next, on the morning of March 19th, Imamoğlu's house was surrounded, and he was arrested on allegations of corruption and terrorism links, just days before he was about to be named presidential candidate of the CHP. Presidential elections are slated to be held in 2028, though they may occur earlier. Writing from prison on March 23rd, Imamoğlu declared: 'I have been imprisoned on the basis of vague hearsay from a handful of so-called 'confidential witnesses'. There is no conviction against me. I am a political prisoner." Apparently, many Turks agreed. Protests broke out as soon as Imamoğlu was arrested. Despite a government ban, the demonstrations grew to become the largest Türkiye has seen in over a decade, with crowd estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to half a million and more, and spread to more than 55 of Turkey's 81 provinces. They were met with a forceful crackdown. Over 1,400 people, including journalists, were arrested. Multiple media outlets were fined for covering the demonstrations. Nevertheless, millions turned out to vote for Imamoğlu to be the CHP's candidate for president. The stage is set for a political showdown, the opposition is not backing off, and neither is Erdoğan or his neo-Ottoman, religious conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). To better understand the dissatisfaction and distrust that the Turkish population is displaying, it is worth noting that the inflation rate has slowed to a still intolerable 38.10% a year, making life exceedingly difficult for the majority of people and fueling interest in getting someone with a new outlook into power. The political turmoil swiftly spilled over into Türkiye's economy. The MSCI Türkiye Index fell by 20.9%, signaling a sharp market reaction to the rising instability. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) surged to 324, a nearly 30% increase, signaling escalating risks and higher borrowing costs. The Turkish lira depreciated further, dropping as much as 12% right after Imamoğlu's arrest, despite the Turkish Central Bank spending $12 billion in foreign reserves to save the lira after it hit a record low. The central bank also raised interest rates to 46% overnight, from 42%. ISTANBUL, TURKEY - APRIL 13, 2025: Students take part in a protest against the arrest of Istanbul's ... More mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, responding to a series of actions where President Erdogan has assumed further power over the government. (Photo credit should read Tolga Ildun / GocherImagery/Future Publishing via Getty Images) Despite the Central Bank's efforts to attract foreign direct investment, recent political developments have once again shaken investor confidence. This was best illustrated in a Bloomberg report describing how, during a meeting with a Turkish economist on March 19th where they were expecting good news, Wall Street investors watched in real-time as news alerts on their phones showed Turkish stocks seeing their largest drop since 2013, eroding trust in the country's stability in just 30 minutes. Investors looking at long-term investments like energy care about the rule of law, good governance, transparency, certainty, and stability for their returns. All of which increasingly authoritarian Türkiye lacks. The recent uproar demonstrated once more that there is no guarantee Erdoğan will follow sensible policies, and that instead he is willing to sacrifice political and fiscal stability on the altar of his ambitions to remain in office at all costs. Erdoğan talks a good game about his commitment to investor-friendly economic policies; however, the damage may have already been done and will cost Türkiye tens of billions of dollars. Türkiye is not rich in oil and gas, so it has turned to renewable energy as a key strategy to reduce its dependence on costly energy imports. With energy being a long-term infrastructure investment, those looking to invest in wind, solar, and hydro in Türkiye will likely withhold investment decisions, a costly dynamic as Türkiye has publicly declared it will invest $20 billion in renewable energy and infrastructure by 2030. By creating an environment hostile to foreign investment, Erdoğan may have jeopardized the country's long-term developmental goals and damaged Türkiye's prospects for energy independence. A more volatile economic environment may also impact Türkiye's role as an energy transit hub. As an integral part of existing initiatives such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Iraq's Development Road, Türkiye has historically been key to transporting hydrocarbons between the Middle East and Europe. As Europe seeks transit routes outside of Russia, projects like the EastMed pipeline, which partially relies on Türkiye's acquiescence, could be further jeopardized amidst existing delays. As President Trump continues to decouple from Europe and fan conflict and unpredictability in relations between the U.S. and the EU, Türkiye, as a route of transporting energy resources, is looking riskier, which has a distinct impact on European energy security. The muted Western response to Türkiye's turmoil highlights how the rapid pace of current geopolitical change and uncertainty influences the behavior of nation states. Türkiye's location and strategic importance is prompting diminished criticism of its democratic backsliding. In the U.S, President Trump has made no statement condemning Erdoğan's actions. The EU needs Türkiye for its new joint defense strategies as it holds the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., and to keep migration under control. However, while many states may prioritize maintaining a relationship with Ankara, investors have no such obligations. The events unfolding in Türkiye starkly reflect the broader trends of 2025: geopolitical uncertainty and further democratic backsliding. Türkiye's latest political crackdown exemplifies both. Just as the country was beginning to rebuild economic credibility, this dramatic setback has significant financial consequences that threaten Türkiye's potential for growth and Europe's energy supply. With Erdoğan's most recent crackdown, yet another key European trading partner has joined the race to increase political risk, and this dynamic will surely limit the prospects of strengthening the continent's energy security.
Memri
04-04-2025
- Politics
- Memri
A 'Terror' For Erdoğan
"There is no fear like that of the one who sells out his people." – Nâzım Hikmet On March 19, 2025, the Turkish government under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrested Ekrem Imamoğlu, who has been mayor of Istanbul since 2019, on charges of "establishing and managing a criminal organization," "helping a terror organization,"[1] "taking bribes," "extortion," "unlawfully recording personal data," and "rigging a tender."[2] The Interior Ministry announced that he was also suspended from his post as mayor as a temporary measure.[3] On March 28, even Imamoğlu's lawyer was arrested and later released on the condition that he be kept under "judicial control."[4] Imamoğlu, who is now being held in Istanbul's Silivri prison, notorious for its housing of political prisoners, is a leading figure in the main opposition party in Turkey, the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP), which was the party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of the Republic of Turkey. Imamoğlu has long been viewed as the likely presidential candidate in presidential elections that, by Turkish law, need to be scheduled before May 7, 2028. Another popular figure is Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara. On March 24, several days after his arrest, Imamoğlu won a CHP party vote and was declared the party's presidential candidate,[5] a decision formalized by the party on March 27.[6] The CHP had made significant gains in the 2019 local elections,[7] but it was the 2024 local elections that were a major upset: For the first time in 22 years of the rule of Erdoğan's Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP), the CHP received more votes than the AKP – 37.8 percent of Turks voted for the CHP over 35.5 percent voting for the AKP.[8] The CHP also won the mayorships of Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, Bursa, and Antalya – together constituting the country's capital and five largest cities. It is therefore not surprising that the country erupted in demonstrations following Imamoğlu's arrest, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in dozens of cities. Media have reported significant protests ongoing in Adana,[9] Ankara,[10] Antalya,[11] Aydın,[12] Balıkesir,[13] Adıyaman,[14] Afyonkarahisar,[15] Amasya,[16] Ardahan,[17] Artvin,[18] Bartın,[19] Bilecik,[20] Bolu,[21] Burdur,[22] Bursa,[23] Çanakkale,[24] Denizli,[25] Edirne,[26] Eskişehir,[27] Giresun,[28] İstanbul,[29] İzmir,[30] Kastamonu,[31] Kırıkkale,[32] Kırşehir,[33] Kütahya,[34] Manisa,[35] Mersin,[36] Muğla,[37] Sinop,[38] Tekirdağ,[39] Uşak,[40] Yalova[41] and Zonguldak.[42] CHP leader Özgür Özel said that 2,200,000 people protested the arrest at Istanbul's Maltepe district on March 29,[43] though media reports put the number at hundreds of thousands.[44] This list is not exhaustive. Attendants protest the arrest of leading opposition figure Ekrem Imamoğlu at a massive rally in Maltepe on March 29. Erdoğan's government has responded as it has historically in such situations: with "rubber bullets" as reported by the media,[45] which Turkish analysts take to mean projectiles from the FN 303 riot gun used by Turkish police;[46] TOMA vehicles, which are the Turkish-made armored water cannons designed for riot control that became famous during their widespread deployment in crushing the 2013 Gezi Park protests;[47] tear gas, for nearly half a million units of which Turkish police recently placed orders to refill their warehouses;[48] 1,876 people detained and 260 arrested as of March 27,[49] including 37 arrests for social media posts;[50] the banning from broadcasting for 10 days of the TV channel of the leading opposition outlet Sözcü;[51] the arrest of Turkish journalists covering the protests, including Yasin Akgül, Zeynep Kuray, Hayri Dinç, Kurtuluş Arı, Ali Onur Tosun, Bülent Kılıç, Gökhan Kam, Elif Bayburt, and Nisa Suda Demirel;[52] the arrest of Swedish journalist Joakim Medin when he arrived at the airport on March 27 to cover the protests;[53] the deportation of BBC Turkey journalist Mark Lowen on the grounds that he was "a threat to public order";[54] the banning public gatherings and protests through March 26 by the Istanbul Governor's Office;[55] the restriction of access to YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, and Telegram in Turkey;[56] the restriction by March 27, of a CHP website calling for a boycott of government-aligned businesses in Turkey;[57] and court orders to X, formerly Twitter, to close "over 700 accounts of news organizations, journalists, political figures, students, and others,"[58] with which X has said that it will not comply, though there are reports that some X accounts reporting on the protests have been shut down.[59] Perhaps Erdoğan would have provoked less of a reaction with such a move – which he timed carefully during Ramadan, when most Turks are fasting and therefore less likely to go into the streets to protest, and also ahead of Eid celebrations – if the arrest were not so transparently political. If Erdoğan were looking to uncover those helping terrorist organizations in his government, he need only look in the mirror. Was it under Imamoğlu that those from around the world seeking to join ISIS poured for years through Turkey into Syria to slaughter civilians and build their caliphate, or was that under Erdoğan? Is it Imamoğlu who apparently continues to permit ISIS leaders to meet in the capital city of Turkey to coordinate their activity in Syria?[60] As for corruption – was it Imamoğlu who, in hushed tones told his son in a December 2013 phone call, "They are doing a big corruption raid... whatever you have in your house, remove it," admonishing him, after he spoke casually of removing amounts of 10, 25, and 30 million Euro, "don't speak openly"? Was it Imamoğlu on that phone call, or was it the reis himself?[61] Is it under Imamoğlu that tens of millions of lira have disappeared from the country's Religious Affairs Ministry, which hosts events at five-star hotels, appoints the family members of senior leadership to positions for which they are not not qualified, and maintains a growing portfolio of property?[62] Did Imamoğlu build extravagant palaces in Ankara and on Lake Van[63] while cases of povery-related suicide were reportedly increasing in the country, or was that Erdoğan?[64] Would that it were otherwise, but unfortunately this list, too, is far from exhaustive. To summarize: Erdoğan likely orders the arrest of the leading opposition figure – such a move would be unlikely to be taken without at least his explicit approval. He does so on corruption and terrorism charges, which are laughable in Erdoğan's Turkey. Then he arrests the lawyer who represents that figure. Then he arrests the protesters who stand up in a natural democratic revolt against such a consolidation of power. Viewing this picture together, it seems clear that the "terrorist organization" that Imamoğlu is accused of helping is simply the formidable opposition party in Turkey that is closing in on ending Erdoğan's reign – this is a terror for him indeed. * Yigal Carmon is President and Founder of MEMRI.
The Guardian
19-03-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Istanbul mayor arrested days before likely presidential nomination
Turkish police on Wednesday arrested Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, state-run media reported, as part of an investigation into alleged corruption and terror links. The state-run Anadolu Agency reported that prosecutors also issued warrants for 100 other people. Authorities closed several roads around Istanbul and banned demonstrations in the city for four days in an apparent effort to prevent protests following the arrest. Imamoğlu posted a video on Wednesday morning apparently reacting to the move, with the caption 'A blow to the will of the nation'. Imamoğlu, 53, 'was detained and is now at police headquarters' a press aide told Agence France-Presse. The aide did not have permission to speak to the media so asked not to be named. At the same time, Netblocks internet observatory said Turkey had restricted access to multiple social media platforms including X, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is scheduled to hold a primary election on 23 March, at which Imamoğlu was expected to be chosen as its presidential candidate. The next presidential vote is scheduled for 2028, but early elections are likely. The arrest followed a search of Imamoğlu's home on Tuesday, which came a day after a university invalidated his diploma, in effect disqualifying the popular opposition figure from running in the next presidential race. Having a university degree is a prerequisite for running in elections under Turkish law. Istanbul University nullified Imamoğlu's diploma, citing alleged irregularities in his 1990 transfer from a private university in northern Cyprus to its faculty of business administration. He called the university's decision 'illegal', insisting it does not have the authority to cancel the diploma. The university's move has been widely perceived as politically motivated. 'The days when those who made this decision will be held accountable before history and justice are near. The march of our people, who are thirsty for justice, law, and democracy, cannot be stopped,' he wrote on X. He later also suggested the decision was made under pressure from Erdoğan's government and raised concerns about the judiciary's independence. He said that he planned to challenge the decision. 'What will I do next? I will keep running like a lion. There's no stepping back, I'll run even harder,' Imamoğlu said. Wolfango Piccoli, of the Teneo political risk advisory firm, said the diploma's annulment indicates that Erdoğan recognises he cannot secure an election victory. 'The decision to revoke Imamoğlu's diploma goes beyond merely undermining a fair electoral race by removing the strongest opponent,' Piccoli wrote in an emailed note. 'It reflects the boldness and power to dictate what is real and what is not by controlling the state apparatus.' Imamoğlu has faced a series of legal challenges. In 2022, he was convicted of insulting members of Turkey's Supreme Electoral Council in a case that could result in a political ban. He is appealing against his conviction. He faces multiple other lawsuits, including allegations of trying to influence a judicial expert investigating opposition-led municipalities. The cases could result in prison sentences and a political ban. He was elected mayor of Turkey's largest city in March 2019 in a historic blow to Erdoğan and the president's Justice and Development party, which had controlled Istanbul for a quarter-century. The party pushed to void the municipal election results in the city of 16 million, alleging irregularities. The challenge resulted in a repeat of the election a few months later, which Imamoğlu also won. The mayor retained his seat following local elections last year, during which his party made significant gains against Erdoğan's governing party.
