Latest news with #ImperialCollege
News.com.au
a day ago
- Health
- News.com.au
'Silent killer': the science of tracing climate deaths in heatwaves
A heatwave scorching Europe had barely subsided in early July when scientists published estimates that 2,300 people may have died across a dozen major cities during the extreme, climate-fuelled episode. The figure was supposed to "grab some attention" and sound a timely warning in the hope of avoiding more needless deaths, said Friederike Otto, one of the scientists involved in the research. "We are still relatively early in the summer, so this will not have been the last heatwave. There is a lot that people and communities can do to save lives," Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, told AFP. Heat can claim tens of thousands of lives during European summers but it usually takes months, even years, to count the cost of this "silent killer". Otto and colleagues published their partial estimate just a week after temperatures peaked in western Europe. While the underlying methods were not new, the scientists said it was the first study to link heatwave deaths to climate change so soon after the event in question. Early mortality estimates could be misunderstood as official statistics but "from a public health perspective the benefits of providing timely evidence outweigh these risks," Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick told AFP. "This approach could have transformative potential for both public understanding and policy prioritisation" of heatwaves, said Nunes, an expert on global warming and health who was not involved in the study. - Big deal - Science can show, with increasing speed and confidence, that human-caused climate change is making heatwaves hotter and more frequent. Unlike floods and fires, heat kills quietly, with prolonged exposure causing heat stroke, organ failure, and death. The sick and elderly are particularly vulnerable, but so are younger people exercising or toiling outdoors. But every summer, heat kills and Otto -- a pioneer in the field of attribution science -- started wondering if the message was getting through. "We have done attribution studies of extreme weather events and attribution studies of heatwaves for a decade... but as a society we are not prepared for these heatwaves," she said. "People think it's 30 (degrees Celsius) instead of 27, what's the big deal? And we know it's a big deal." When the mercury started climbing in Europe earlier this summer, scientists tweaked their approach. Joining forces, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine chose to spotlight the lethality -- not just the intensity -- of the heat between June 23 and July 2. Combining historic weather and published mortality data, they assessed that climate change made the heatwave between 1C and 4C hotter across 12 cities, depending on location, and that 2,300 people had likely perished. But in a notable first, they estimated that 65 percent of these deaths -- around 1,500 people across cities including London, Paris, and Athens -- would not have occurred in a world without global warming. "That's a much stronger message," said Otto. "It brings it much closer to home what climate change actually means and makes it much more real and human than when you say this heatwave would have been two degrees colder." - Underestimated threat - The study was just a snapshot of the wider heatwave that hit during western Europe's hottest June on record and sent temperatures soaring to 46C in Spain and Portugal. The true toll was likely much higher, the authors said, noting that heat deaths are widely undercounted. Since then Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria have suffered fresh heatwaves and deadly wildfires. Though breaking new ground, the study has not been subject to peer review, a rigorous assessment process that can take more than a year. Otto said waiting until after summer to publish -- when "no one's talking about heatwaves, no one is thinking about keeping people safe" -- would defeat the purpose. "I think it's especially important, in this context, to get the message out there very quickly." The study had limitations but relied on robust and well-established scientific methodology, several independent experts told AFP. Tailoring this approach to local conditions could help cities better prepare when heatwaves loom, Abhiyant Tiwari, a health and climate expert who worked on India's first-ever heat action plan, told AFP. "I definitely see more such studies coming out in the future," said Tiwari from NRDC India. Otto said India, which experiences tremendously hot summers, was a "prime candidate" and with a template in place it was likely more studies would soon follow.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Health
- Yahoo
'Silent killer': the science of tracing climate deaths in heatwaves
A heatwave scorching Europe had barely subsided in early July when scientists published estimates that 2,300 people may have died across a dozen major cities during the extreme, climate-fuelled episode. The figure was supposed to "grab some attention" and sound a timely warning in the hope of avoiding more needless deaths, said Friederike Otto, one of the scientists involved in the research. "We are still relatively early in the summer, so this will not have been the last heatwave. There is a lot that people and communities can do to save lives," Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, told AFP. Heat can claim tens of thousands of lives during European summers but it usually takes months, even years, to count the cost of this "silent killer". Otto and colleagues published their partial estimate just a week after temperatures peaked in western Europe. While the underlying methods were not new, the scientists said it was the first study to link heatwave deaths to climate change so soon after the event in question. Early mortality estimates could be misunderstood as official statistics but "from a public health perspective the benefits of providing timely evidence outweigh these risks," Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick told AFP. "This approach could have transformative potential for both public understanding and policy prioritisation" of heatwaves, said Nunes, an expert on global warming and health who was not involved in the study. - Big deal - Science can show, with increasing speed and confidence, that human-caused climate change is making heatwaves hotter and more frequent. Unlike floods and fires, heat kills quietly, with prolonged exposure causing heat stroke, organ failure, and death. The sick and elderly are particularly vulnerable, but so are younger people exercising or toiling outdoors. But every summer, heat kills and Otto -- a pioneer in the field of attribution science -- started wondering if the message was getting through. "We have done attribution studies of extreme weather events and attribution studies of heatwaves for a decade... but as a society we are not prepared for these heatwaves," she said. "People think it's 30 (degrees Celsius) instead of 27, what's the big deal? And we know it's a big deal." When the mercury started climbing in Europe earlier this summer, scientists tweaked their approach. Joining forces, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine chose to spotlight the lethality -- not just the intensity -- of the heat between June 23 and July 2. Combining historic weather and published mortality data, they assessed that climate change made the heatwave between 1C and 4C hotter across 12 cities, depending on location, and that 2,300 people had likely perished. But in a notable first, they estimated that 65 percent of these deaths -- around 1,500 people across cities including London, Paris, and Athens -- would not have occurred in a world without global warming. "That's a much stronger message," said Otto. "It brings it much closer to home what climate change actually means and makes it much more real and human than when you say this heatwave would have been two degrees colder." - Underestimated threat - The study was just a snapshot of the wider heatwave that hit during western Europe's hottest June on record and sent temperatures soaring to 46C in Spain and Portugal. The true toll was likely much higher, the authors said, noting that heat deaths are widely undercounted. Since then Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria have suffered fresh heatwaves and deadly wildfires. Though breaking new ground, the study has not been subject to peer review, a rigorous assessment process that can take more than a year. Otto said waiting until after summer to publish -- when "no one's talking about heatwaves, no one is thinking about keeping people safe" -- would defeat the purpose. "I think it's especially important, in this context, to get the message out there very quickly." The study had limitations but relied on robust and well-established scientific methodology, several independent experts told AFP. Tailoring this approach to local conditions could help cities better prepare when heatwaves loom, Abhiyant Tiwari, a health and climate expert who worked on India's first-ever heat action plan, told AFP. "I definitely see more such studies coming out in the future," said Tiwari from NRDC India. Otto said India, which experiences tremendously hot summers, was a "prime candidate" and with a template in place it was likely more studies would soon follow. np/klm/cw/tc
France 24
a day ago
- Health
- France 24
'Silent killer': the science of tracing climate deaths in heatwaves
The figure was supposed to "grab some attention" and sound a timely warning in the hope of avoiding more needless deaths, said Friederike Otto, one of the scientists involved in the research. "We are still relatively early in the summer, so this will not have been the last heatwave. There is a lot that people and communities can do to save lives," Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, told AFP. Heat can claim tens of thousands of lives during European summers but it usually takes months, even years, to count the cost of this "silent killer". Otto and colleagues published their partial estimate just a week after temperatures peaked in western Europe. While the underlying methods were not new, the scientists said it was the first study to link heatwave deaths to climate change so soon after the event in question. Early mortality estimates could be misunderstood as official statistics but "from a public health perspective the benefits of providing timely evidence outweigh these risks," Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick told AFP. "This approach could have transformative potential for both public understanding and policy prioritisation" of heatwaves, said Nunes, an expert on global warming and health who was not involved in the study. - Big deal - Science can show, with increasing speed and confidence, that human-caused climate change is making heatwaves hotter and more frequent. Unlike floods and fires, heat kills quietly, with prolonged exposure causing heat stroke, organ failure, and death. The sick and elderly are particularly vulnerable, but so are younger people exercising or toiling outdoors. But every summer, heat kills and Otto -- a pioneer in the field of attribution science -- started wondering if the message was getting through. "We have done attribution studies of extreme weather events and attribution studies of heatwaves for a decade... but as a society we are not prepared for these heatwaves," she said. "People think it's 30 (degrees Celsius) instead of 27, what's the big deal? And we know it's a big deal." When the mercury started climbing in Europe earlier this summer, scientists tweaked their approach. Joining forces, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine chose to spotlight the lethality -- not just the intensity -- of the heat between June 23 and July 2. Combining historic weather and published mortality data, they assessed that climate change made the heatwave between 1C and 4C hotter across 12 cities, depending on location, and that 2,300 people had likely perished. But in a notable first, they estimated that 65 percent of these deaths -- around 1,500 people across cities including London, Paris, and Athens -- would not have occurred in a world without global warming. "That's a much stronger message," said Otto. "It brings it much closer to home what climate change actually means and makes it much more real and human than when you say this heatwave would have been two degrees colder." Underestimated threat The study was just a snapshot of the wider heatwave that hit during western Europe's hottest June on record and sent temperatures soaring to 46C in Spain and Portugal. The true toll was likely much higher, the authors said, noting that heat deaths are widely undercounted. Since then Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria have suffered fresh heatwaves and deadly wildfires. Though breaking new ground, the study has not been subject to peer review, a rigorous assessment process that can take more than a year. Otto said waiting until after summer to publish -- when "no one's talking about heatwaves, no one is thinking about keeping people safe" -- would defeat the purpose. "I think it's especially important, in this context, to get the message out there very quickly." The study had limitations but relied on robust and well-established scientific methodology, several independent experts told AFP. Tailoring this approach to local conditions could help cities better prepare when heatwaves loom, Abhiyant Tiwari, a health and climate expert who worked on India's first-ever heat action plan, told AFP. "I definitely see more such studies coming out in the future," said Tiwari from NRDC India. Otto said India, which experiences tremendously hot summers, was a "prime candidate" and with a template in place it was likely more studies would soon follow.
Arab News
a day ago
- Health
- Arab News
‘Silent killer': the science of tracing climate deaths in heatwaves
PARIS: A heatwave scorching Europe had barely subsided in early July when scientists published estimates that 2,300 people may have died across a dozen major cities during the extreme, climate-fueled episode. The figure was supposed to 'grab some attention' and sound a timely warning in the hope of avoiding more needless deaths, said Friederike Otto, one of the scientists involved in the research. 'We are still relatively early in the summer, so this will not have been the last heatwave. There is a lot that people and communities can do to save lives,' Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, told AFP. Heat can claim tens of thousands of lives during European summers but it usually takes months, even years, to count the cost of this 'silent killer.' Otto and colleagues published their partial estimate just a week after temperatures peaked in western Europe. While the underlying methods were not new, the scientists said it was the first study to link heatwave deaths to climate change so soon after the event in question. Early mortality estimates could be misunderstood as official statistics but 'from a public health perspective the benefits of providing timely evidence outweigh these risks,' Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick told AFP. 'This approach could have transformative potential for both public understanding and policy prioritization' of heatwaves, said Nunes, an expert on global warming and health who was not involved in the study. Science can show, with increasing speed and confidence, that human-caused climate change is making heatwaves hotter and more frequent. Unlike floods and fires, heat kills quietly, with prolonged exposure causing heat stroke, organ failure, and death. The sick and elderly are particularly vulnerable, but so are younger people exercising or toiling outdoors. But every summer, heat kills and Otto — a pioneer in the field of attribution science — started wondering if the message was getting through. 'We have done attribution studies of extreme weather events and attribution studies of heatwaves for a decade... but as a society we are not prepared for these heatwaves,' she said. 'People think it's 30 (degrees Celsius) instead of 27, what's the big deal? And we know it's a big deal.' When the mercury started climbing in Europe earlier this summer, scientists tweaked their approach. Joining forces, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine chose to spotlight the lethality — not just the intensity — of the heat between June 23 and July 2. Combining historic weather and published mortality data, they assessed that climate change made the heatwave between 1C and 4C hotter across 12 cities, depending on location, and that 2,300 people had likely perished. But in a notable first, they estimated that 65 percent of these deaths — around 1,500 people across cities including London, Paris, and Athens — would not have occurred in a world without global warming. 'That's a much stronger message,' said Otto. 'It brings it much closer to home what climate change actually means and makes it much more real and human than when you say this heatwave would have been two degrees colder.' The study was just a snapshot of the wider heatwave that hit during western Europe's hottest June on record and sent temperatures soaring to 46C in Spain and Portugal. The true toll was likely much higher, the authors said, noting that heat deaths are widely undercounted. Since then Turkiye, Greece and Bulgaria have suffered fresh heatwaves and deadly wildfires. Though breaking new ground, the study has not been subject to peer review, a rigorous assessment process that can take more than a year. Otto said waiting until after summer to publish — when 'no one's talking about heatwaves, no one is thinking about keeping people safe' — would defeat the purpose. 'I think it's especially important, in this context, to get the message out there very quickly.' The study had limitations but relied on robust and well-established scientific methodology, several independent experts told AFP. Tailoring this approach to local conditions could help cities better prepare when heatwaves loom, Abhiyant Tiwari, a health and climate expert who worked on India's first-ever heat action plan, told AFP. 'I definitely see more such studies coming out in the future,' said Tiwari from NRDC India. Otto said India, which experiences tremendously hot summers, was a 'prime candidate' and with a template in place it was likely more studies would soon follow.
Forbes
5 days ago
- Science
- Forbes
Life's Building Blocks Likely Formed Close To Earth
This is a colored view of the C-type asteroid 162173 Ryugu, seen by the ONC-T camera on board of ... More Hayabusa2. Filters: vwx date:2018-07-12 08:01 Image level: 2b (Images after hardware correction and radiometric correction). How did life here at home get its first building materials? The onset of life here on Earth likely hinged on the delivery of organic material delivered by water- and carbon-rich asteroids. To date, the argument has been that most of the water and the organics that would build life (including amino acids) originated very far out in our early solar system. But in a paper just published in the journal Nature Communications, lead author, Matthew Genge, a geologist at Imperial College London, and colleagues argue that the building blocks of life had their origins in an intensely turbulent region of space close to our giant planet Jupiter. The findings are based on evidence from samples of carbon-rich asteroid Ryugu, returned to Earth by the Japan Aerospace Agency Hayabusa 2 mission, Imperial College notes. We studied microchondrules ---- tiny pieces of rock from asteroid Ryugu, which is a really carbon and water rich asteroid, the kind of asteroid that probably delivered all the carbon and water for our planet, Genge told me in his office. In that sample, we discovered evidence for a whole new way of making these types of asteroids, he says. Maybe they formed not just at a great distance, but where the early solar system was turbulent and disturbed, says Genge. It's in those places that these carbon and water rich particles are concentrated, he says. The Ryugu specimen that I studied was only one millimeter across, says Genge. To people who study meteorites, that's tiny, but to me it was a boulder, because I'm used to studying things 10 times smaller, he says. Using a scanning electron microscope, the team was able to identify a shockingly large number of microchondrules, tiny spheres originally consisting of glass, that had been altered by water formed when ice melted on the asteroid, says Imperial College. The team identified them by virtue of their sulfide-rims, which could be seen in X-ray CT scans of the mm-sized Ryugu sample, the college notes. Until now, the asteroid Ryugu had been thought to have formed at some 20 to 30 Earth-Sun distances, or out beyond the present-day orbits of Uranus and Neptune. But new scanning electron microscope images that suggest the building-blocks of life originated near Jupiter in our early solar system, rather than from deep space as currently thought, says the imperial college London. There was likely intense turbulence just beyond the orbit of Jupiter in the early Solar System, where gas was stirred up by the wake of the giant planet. Just outside this region was also a pressure bump where mm-sized grains were concentrated by gas flow, Imperial College reports. This Jovian pressure bump was essentially a chondrule factory that concentrated and incorporated this material into asteroids, the college notes. What Melts These Microchondrules? It's still not known but Genge says his favorite hypothesis is that the heat is generated by flash heating caused by random explosive shockwaves that moved through our solar system's young protoplanetary disk. These shockwaves could have caused temperatures in the disk of up to 1900 degrees Celsius, which is hot enough to melt steel. And more importantly, it was hot enough to melt these protoplanetary materials into molten droplets of primitive microchondrules. If you've ever watched a movie with an explosion in it, you've seen an expanding shockwave, says Genge. It's that rapidly moving shell that flash heats the dust to make molten droplets. However, the finest grain dust particles escape most of the heating, so they keep their carbon and water and other organic material. But due to this material's proximity to Jupiter, there was locally an intense amount of disk turbulence which caused rapidly turning eddies of gas. These eddies of gas throw out the big particles and keep the really fine dust, says Genge. Then, if you make an object like an asteroid there, it's mainly fine grained, he says. The fine grains contained carbon and water and critical prebiotic molecules such as amino acids. These and the microchondrules subsequently migrated inward towards the inner solar system and likely predate the formation of our own planet. Yet when Earth did form, the building blocks of life were there waiting to be incorporated into our nascent planet. Illustration of how microchondrules might have formed early in the solar system The Bottom Line? Earth was likely seeded by building blocks of life from both the cold outer regions of our solar system as well as from near our gas giant planet Jupiter. As for what's next? We've now got a really good understanding of where in the solar system these materials come from, says Genge. But over the next twenty years, we're going to sample more unusual asteroids and learn more about the early solar system, he says.
