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Business Standard
18 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Trump's trade tantrum, and stock market: The ABCD strategy of investing
For Indian retail investors, this is not a moment for fear but a moment for foresight, says Sandeep Walunj of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. premium Sandeep Walunj Mumbai Listen to This Article Trump's unpredictable and transactional approach to trade—especially with partners like India—could trigger short-term market volatility. But structural geopolitical trends, such as the potential US-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the India-EU FTA, the China+1 strategy, and evolving BRICS dynamics, are tilting the balance in India's favour. Even if Trump's return stirs disruption, Indian investors are better positioned today. Global resistance to US hegemony, rising inflation concerns in the US, and India's growing strategic autonomy act as counterweights. Navigating this terrain requires smart thinking across three horizons: short, medium, and long-term. SHORT TERM (0–6 months): Defensive, yet opportunistic
India Gazette
20 hours ago
- Business
- India Gazette
"Will negotiate a fair balance," Piyush Goyal optimistic of wrapping up FTA with EU by year end
By Shailesh Yadav Paris [France], 2 June (ANI): Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed optimism that India could finalise its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) ahead of the year-end deadline, citing minimal divergences between the two economic blocs. Goyal emphasised the complementary nature of the Indian and European economies. 'There are not too many issues where we have divergence of opinion. We have both complementary economies,' he stated. 'In most cases, what is of offensive interest to India does not hurt the European economy. And likewise, goods and services that Europe would like to provide to India only support our growth story.' The minister acknowledged that certain sensitive areas require careful negotiation on both sides. 'Obviously, in any trading relationship, there are certain sensitive issues on both sides which we have to resolve amicably in the interest of both the European Union and India,' Goyal noted. India has positioned itself strongly on key issues concerning the EU, particularly regarding gender equality and sustainability. 'We are proud of our sisters and our women and the fantastic work they have done and continue to do,' Goyal said. 'Therefore, if you have a subject like gender, India is on the front foot. When it comes to subjects like sustainability, India is right at the forefront.' Both sides have raised specific concerns that must be addressed in the negotiations. 'We have certain concerns about European Union practices and regulations. Likewise, they have certain areas of things they would like to discuss,' the minister explained. Goyal expressed confidence that these issues could be resolved through fair negotiation. 'Some issues are on the table and we will negotiate a fair balance and free trade agreement,' he said. 'There would be many issues on both sides which will come up for discussion so that we can come up with a robust agreement that will support market access and promote easier trade.' The minister clarified that free trade agreements operate independently of domestic business reforms. 'Free trade agreements stand on their footing. They have no relationship to our internal domestic effort to make it attractive to do investments and businesses,' he explained. Instead, FTAs focus on market liberalisation that benefits both economies. 'Free trade agreements are more towards opening markets on both sides, which leads to greater competitiveness, improved productivity and efficiency in all processes,' Goyal said. The agreement is expected to create broader economic opportunities across multiple sectors. 'It opens the doors to larger engagement, be it in goods, services, investments, all areas related to the economy,' the minister noted. 'All of this benefits 1.4 billion consumers.' The India-EU FTA negotiations represent a significant step in strengthening economic ties between India and one of the world's largest trading blocs. The agreement aims to reduce trade barriers, enhance market access, and create new opportunities for businesses on both sides. With both economies showing complementary strengths and shared commitments to sustainability and gender equality, the successful conclusion of the FTA could mark a new chapter in India-Europe economic cooperation, potentially benefiting millions of consumers and businesses across both regions. (ANI)
Time of India
21 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
"Will negotiate a fair balance," Piyush Goyal optimistic of wrapping up FTA with EU by year end
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed optimism that India could finalise its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) ahead of the year-end deadline, citing minimal divergences between the two economic blocs. Goyal emphasised the complementary nature of the Indian and European economies. "There are not too many issues where we have divergence of opinion. We have both complementary economies," he stated. "In most cases, what is of offensive interest to India does not hurt the European economy. And likewise, goods and services that Europe would like to provide to India only support our growth story." The minister acknowledged that certain sensitive areas require careful negotiation on both sides. "Obviously, in any trading relationship, there are certain sensitive issues on both sides which we have to resolve amicably in the interest of both the European Union and India," Goyal noted. India has positioned itself strongly on key issues concerning the EU, particularly regarding gender equality and sustainability. "We are proud of our sisters and our women and the fantastic work they have done and continue to do," Goyal said. "Therefore, if you have a subject like gender, India is on the front foot. When it comes to subjects like sustainability, India is right at the forefront." Both sides have raised specific concerns that must be addressed in the negotiations. "We have certain concerns about European Union practices and regulations. Likewise, they have certain areas of things they would like to discuss," the minister explained. Goyal expressed confidence that these issues could be resolved through fair negotiation. "Some issues are on the table and we will negotiate a fair balance and free trade agreement," he said. "There would be many issues on both sides which will come up for discussion so that we can come up with a robust agreement that will support market access and promote easier trade." The minister clarified that free trade agreements operate independently of domestic business reforms. "Free trade agreements stand on their footing. They have no relationship to our internal domestic effort to make it attractive to do investments and businesses," he explained. Instead, FTAs focus on market liberalisation that benefits both economies. "Free trade agreements are more towards opening markets on both sides, which leads to greater competitiveness, improved productivity and efficiency in all processes," Goyal said. The agreement is expected to create broader economic opportunities across multiple sectors. "It opens the doors to larger engagement, be it in goods, services, investments, all areas related to the economy," the minister noted. "All of this benefits 1.4 billion consumers." The India-EU FTA negotiations represent a significant step in strengthening economic ties between India and one of the world's largest trading blocs. The agreement aims to reduce trade barriers, enhance market access, and create new opportunities for businesses on both sides. With both economies showing complementary strengths and shared commitments to sustainability and gender equality, the successful conclusion of the FTA could mark a new chapter in India-Europe economic cooperation, potentially benefiting millions of consumers and businesses across both regions.
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
"Will negotiate a fair balance," Piyush Goyal optimistic of wrapping up FTA with EU by year end
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed optimism that India could finalise its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) ahead of the year-end deadline, citing minimal divergences between the two economic blocs. Goyal emphasised the complementary nature of the Indian and European economies. "There are not too many issues where we have divergence of opinion. We have both complementary economies," he stated. "In most cases, what is of offensive interest to India does not hurt the European economy. And likewise, goods and services that Europe would like to provide to India only support our growth story." The minister acknowledged that certain sensitive areas require careful negotiation on both sides. "Obviously, in any trading relationship, there are certain sensitive issues on both sides which we have to resolve amicably in the interest of both the European Union and India," Goyal noted. Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like El patrimonio de Palito Ortega conmociona al mundo. 33 Bridges Undo India has positioned itself strongly on key issues concerning the EU, particularly regarding gender equality and sustainability. "We are proud of our sisters and our women and the fantastic work they have done and continue to do," Goyal said. "Therefore, if you have a subject like gender, India is on the front foot. When it comes to subjects like sustainability, India is right at the forefront." Both sides have raised specific concerns that must be addressed in the negotiations. "We have certain concerns about European Union practices and regulations. Likewise, they have certain areas of things they would like to discuss," the minister explained. Live Events Goyal expressed confidence that these issues could be resolved through fair negotiation. "Some issues are on the table and we will negotiate a fair balance and free trade agreement," he said. "There would be many issues on both sides which will come up for discussion so that we can come up with a robust agreement that will support market access and promote easier trade." The minister clarified that free trade agreements operate independently of domestic business reforms. "Free trade agreements stand on their footing. They have no relationship to our internal domestic effort to make it attractive to do investments and businesses," he explained. Instead, FTAs focus on market liberalisation that benefits both economies. "Free trade agreements are more towards opening markets on both sides, which leads to greater competitiveness, improved productivity and efficiency in all processes," Goyal said. The agreement is expected to create broader economic opportunities across multiple sectors. "It opens the doors to larger engagement, be it in goods, services, investments, all areas related to the economy," the minister noted. "All of this benefits 1.4 billion consumers." The India-EU FTA negotiations represent a significant step in strengthening economic ties between India and one of the world's largest trading blocs. The agreement aims to reduce trade barriers, enhance market access, and create new opportunities for businesses on both sides. With both economies showing complementary strengths and shared commitments to sustainability and gender equality, the successful conclusion of the FTA could mark a new chapter in India-Europe economic cooperation, potentially benefiting millions of consumers and businesses across both regions.
Express Tribune
a day ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Navigating towards sustainable growth
Listen to article In this article, I offer some insights into Pakistan's current economic trajectory and the challenges that lie ahead. This review highlights key areas such as growth, stability, inflation, tax policies and fiscal discipline, providing a nuanced understanding of the nation's economic health. Over the past three years, Pakistan's economy has shown resilience, moving from a state of high inflation and low growth to a phase of low inflation and recovery. While the economy has averted a crisis, growth forecasts remain subdued. This transition signifies a move in the right direction but also indicates that sustained efforts are required to achieve robust and lasting growth. The subdued forecasts suggest underlying structural issues that need to be addressed for more optimistic projections. The country's journey from near-collapse to a recovery mode is a testament to its resilience but also a reminder of the vulnerabilities that persist. Stability and C/A dynamics Pakistan's current account has achieved stability, a crucial development for maintaining economic equilibrium. However, this stability hinges on timely rollovers and meeting export and remittance targets. Dependence on external factors for maintaining stability highlights potential risks and uncertainties. Any disruptions in these areas could destabilise the economy. In the short term, uncertainties around the Trump Tariff remain one possible source, though it can also trigger opportunities. In the medium term, continued access to the EU market in the wake of India-EU free trade agreement (FTA) should remain an important goal. Diversifying sources of income and enhancing domestic productivity are vital to ensure long-term stability and reduce reliance on external aid and remittances. Inflation and monetary policy The headline inflation has declined significantly, but overall price levels have not followed suit. Core inflation, which is almost 9%, continues to be the linchpin of monetary policy, indicating the challenge of managing inflationary pressures. The reduction in headline inflation is encouraging, but the persistence of high price levels suggests underlying structural issues in the economy. Managing core inflation requires a multifaceted approach that addresses demand-side and supply-side constraints. Furthermore, transparent and data-driven monetary policies are crucial for maintaining public confidence and ensuring economic stability. A reduction in interest rate from 22% to 12% is a significant positive development and private sector credit has started to increase. Tax policies and tariffs reform Pakistan's tax policy is undergoing positive changes with the expansion of the tax net to more sectors. However, tax rates remain "punitively high." The government's intention to abolish the non-filers category is a step in the right direction, however, half of the current tax filers do not contribute anything. This structural problem of tax collection needs to be addressed to maximise revenue. Customs tariff reforms have also been initiated, indicating a broader effort to overhaul the tax system. Reducing tax rates while broadening the base could stimulate economic activity and increase overall tax revenue. The tax structure has significant implications for businesses, investments and overall economic activity. Fiscal discipline, public expenses Historically, the actual current expenditures have surpassed budgeted levels, while development spending has fallen short. Currently, the fiscal trajectory aligns with the budget, which is a positive development. Public expenditures on subsidies have declined from 16.2% in 2022 to 7.2% in 2024, indicating a more focused approach to resource allocation. Defence expenditures have also seen a reduction, falling from 22% to 12.4% of total expenditures, though a substantial increase is imminent. However, the increasing gap between budgeted and actual expenditures on the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) is concerning. Efficient allocation of funds can significantly boost economic growth. Revenue losses, tax evasion On the upside, almost Rs9 trillion is stuck in the system and even a partial recovery can bring dividends without burdening the existing taxpayers. The Tax Expenditure Report 2024 indicates a revenue loss of Rs3,879 billion due to tax concessions and exemptions. Income tax, sales tax and customs duty losses are substantial, highlighting significant gaps in tax collection. Additionally, the annual tax revenue loss due to illicit trade is estimated at Rs750 billion. Furthermore, Rs4,457 billion in tax revenue is stuck in over 100,000 court cases. Addressing these issues is critical for increasing government revenue and improving the fiscal health. The government needs to strengthen tax enforcement, streamline legal processes and formalise the undocumented economy. Conclusion The budget 2025-26 presents an opening. While progress has been made in certain areas, significant challenges remain. The government must focus on maintaining stability, controlling inflation, reforming the tax system and ensuring fiscal discipline. Addressing tax evasion and the undocumented economy is also crucial for enhancing revenue collection. These efforts will pave the way for sustainable economic growth and prosperity. The nation's ability to navigate these economic challenges effectively will determine its future trajectory. The writer is the founder and executive director of PRIME, an independent economic policy think tank
