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Business Recorder
7 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
What falling out with the US means for India?
At the start of this year, relations between India and the United States appeared to be on an upward trajectory. In February, just a month after Donald Trump's return to the White House, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stood alongside his long-time friend at the White House, pledging to raise bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 and signalling the possibility of a comprehensive trade agreement. This bonhomie wasn't restricted to just trade – it reflected on defence cooperation, energy trade, and the Indo-Pacific security framework. Modi invited Trump to India for the planned Quad leaders' summit later this year, a gesture intended to cement the personal rapport between the two leaders. That optimism began to unravel in May when tensions between India and Pakistan flared dangerously. In a brief but intense escalation, Pakistan claimed to have shot down six Indian fighter jets and destroyed a BrahMos missile storage facility in Indian-Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Both sides came perilously close to wider conflict before agreeing to a ceasefire on May 10. Trump publicly took credit for brokering the deal, calling it a personal diplomatic success. India, however, disputed that narrative, insisting it was a mutually agreed arrangement without US mediation. This disagreement planted the first seeds of mistrust. In June, the unease deepened when Trump invited Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir to the White House for a high-profile lunch. The meeting, followed by announcements of a favourable US-Pakistan trade arrangement, an oil reserve development deal, new cooperation on cryptocurrency regulation, and Washington's acceptance of Pakistan's long-standing demand to designate the Balochistan Liberation Army and its Majeed Brigade as terrorist organisations, signalled a strategic warming between Washington and Islamabad. Days before the Trump-Munir meeting, Modi and Trump held a tense phone call on June 17. According to reports, the conversation further soured their relationship, unravelling years of carefully built goodwill. The economic blow By August, the rupture had translated into hard measures. Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Indian imports, accusing New Delhi of maintaining 'strenuous and obnoxious' trade barriers. Days later, he doubled the rate to 50%, the highest for any Asian partner, citing India's continued purchases of Russian crude as undermining the US sanctions regime against Moscow. He ruled out further negotiations until India cut its Russian oil imports. This escalation came despite five rounds of talks toward an interim trade deal, in which India had shown willingness to increase US energy and defence purchases and lower tariffs on American industrial goods. Political miscalculations and disagreements over agricultural norms and quotas ultimately doomed the talks, leaving $190 billion in annual trade and a $46 billion deficit unresolved. The tariff hike threatens India's $87 billion export engine to the US, 18% of its total exports and over 2% of its GDP. Industry experts warn of a 40-50% drop in shipments, especially in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, jewellery, and automobiles. Small and medium-sized enterprises face a severe loss of competitiveness, while economists have trimmed GDP growth forecasts by as much as 1%. Market reaction has been swift: a weaker rupee, the risk of imported inflation, capital flight by foreign portfolio investors, and higher borrowing costs for foreign-currency debt. Strategic fallout The dispute undermines New Delhi's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. While the foreign ministers of Australia, Japan, the US, and India recently met in Washington, the Quad leaders' summit now looks unlikely. Instead, India risks drifting closer to Russia, its long-time defence partner, and even exploring limited engagement with China, which Modi is set to visit later this month. For Washington, this marks a reversal of a 25-year strategy of building up India as a counterweight to China's rise. For New Delhi, it is a reminder of the volatility of personal diplomacy: the same leader who embraced Modi in Ahmedabad in 2020, before 100,000 cheering spectators, is now wielding tariffs as leverage. Political setback for Modi Domestically, the rupture is damaging for Modi. His image as a global statesman, reinforced by his perceived closeness to Trump, has been a key part of his appeal to India's middle class. The opposition Congress party has seized the moment, branding him 'Narendra Surrender' for failing to protect Indian trade interests. Even Hindu nationalist groups in the US, once among Trump's staunch supporters, feel abandoned by Washington's turn. With his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having lost its parliamentary majority in the last election, Modi now faces questions about his handling of both foreign and economic policy. His perceived inability to counter China's assertiveness while losing favour in Washington could become a central vulnerability. The stakes At stake is more than just a trade dispute. The episode jeopardises three decades of India's economic ascent and its strategic positioning as an emerging power backed by a US partnership. Whether this moment leads to strategic drift, realignment toward other powers or eventual rapprochement with Washington will shape India's trajectory for years to come. The above article was contributed by Syed Ahmed Raza Rizvi, Senior Sub-Editor at Business Recorder (Digital).
Business Recorder
05-08-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
NA resolution reiterates country's commitment to Kashmir cause
ISLAMABAD: The National Assembly on Tuesday passed a resolution marking the sixth anniversary of India's revocation of Article 370, reiterating Pakistan's longstanding position that Indian-Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) remains an 'international dispute' and that the right of Kashmiris to self-determination is non-negotiable. The resolution, jointly presented by Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan Amir Muqam in Urdu and Shazia Marri in English, asserted that IIOJK is not an internal matter of India, but a pending issue on the global stage that warrants urgent attention in line with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. The House minced no words in condemning India's illegal, unilateral and morally indefensible actions of August 5, 2019, which it insisted were designed to alter the internationally-recognised status of IIOJK – a move it said violated both international law and the will of the Kashmiri people. 'This House reiterates that Jammu and Kashmir is an international dispute and Pakistan will never compromise on the right of the Kashmiri people to self-determination as guaranteed under international law and UN resolutions,' said the resolution. The House declared August 5 as a 'Black Day', describing it as the onset of a siege that has led to gross human rights violations and the denial of fundamental freedoms in IIOJK. The resolution strongly condemned New Delhi for demographic engineering, political persecution, media blackouts, and the use of collective punishment in Kashmir – all in breach, it said, of the Geneva Conventions. It warned that no unilateral action by India could alter the disputed nature of the region, which remains on the UN's active agenda. 'The voices of Kashmiris cannot be silenced by force, censorship, or occupation,' the resolution stated. 'Such acts are not peace – they are tyranny.' In an emotional crescendo, the House proclaimed that from Srinagar to Islamabad, the heart beats as one for Kashmir, vowing continued political, moral, and diplomatic support. The resolution also characterised the Kashmir issue as the 'unfinished agenda of the partition' of the subcontinent. Adding to the chorus, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar paid homage to the late Hurriyat leader late Syed Ali Shah Geelani and Shaheed Kashmiri resistance leader Burhan Wani, describing them as symbols of the 'indigenous freedom movement.' He accused India of deploying oppressive tactics to crush what he maintained was a home grown struggle. Minister for Health Services and Regulations Mustafa Kamal echoed this sentiment, condemning brutalities in Kashmir and asserting that Pakistan's political spectrum remains united on the issue. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, while veering into foreign policy, announced new travel arrangements for Zaireen (religious pilgrims) visiting Iran and Iraq. He said flights from Quetta would be expanded to reduce the security risks of road travel. 'We are in talks with the Iranian government, and private airlines have also been offered to facilitate pilgrims during Arbaeen,' he noted. Meanwhile, State Minister for Interior Talal Chaudhry, in a bid to dispel circulating rumours, clarified that there would be no fresh military operation in Bajaur. However, he made it clear that both security operations and non-military counterterrorism measures under the National Action Plan (NAP) would continue. He urged political leaderships in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan to support security forces beyond political lines in combating the menace of terrorism and militancy. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Express Tribune
04-07-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Hindu pilgrimage begins in Pahalgam
Indian security personnel stand guard as Hindu pilgrims await their registration ahead of the the annual Amarnath pilgrimage © Tauseef MUSTAFA / AFP Hindus began a vast month-long pilgrimage in the Indian-Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday, with many of the faithful starting from near the site where a deadly April attack triggered conflict with Pakistan. Last year, half a million devotees took part in the Amarnath pilgrimage to a sacred ice pillar located in a cave in the forested Himalayan hills above the town of Pahalgam. Pahalgam is the site where gunmen on April 22 killed 26 mostly Hindu tourists. New Delhi said the gunmen were backed by Pakistan, claims Islamabad rejected — triggering a series of tit-for-tat diplomatic measures that escalated into a four-day conflict. It was the worst standoff by the nuclear-armed nations since 1999, with more than 70 people killed in missile, drone and artillery fire on both sides, before a May 10 ceasefire.
Express Tribune
07-06-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Modi opens Chenab bridge
This photograph taken and released by the Indian Press Information Bureau (PIB) on 6 June 2025 shows India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding national flag during the inauguration of the Chenab Rail Bridge in Reasi, Indian-Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Photo AFP Listen to article Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first visit to the Indian-Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir on Friday since a conflict with arch-rival Pakistan, opening a strategic railway line to the contested region he called "the crown jewel of India". "Pakistan will never forget... its shameful loss," the Hindu nationalist premier told crowds a month since India launched strikes on its neighbour after an attack on tourists in Kashmir. "Friends, today's event is a grand festival of India's unity and firm resolve," Modi said after striding across the soaring bridge to formally launch it for rail traffic. "This is a symbol and celebration of rising India," he said of the Chenab Bridge which connects two mountains. New Delhi calls the Chenab span the "world's highest railway arch bridge", sitting 359 metres (1,117 feet) above a river. While several road and pipeline bridges are higher, Guinness World Records confirmed that Chenab trumps the previous highest railway bridge, the Najiehe in China. The new route will facilitate the movement of people and goods, as well as troops, that was previously possible only via treacherous mountain roads and by air. Around 150 people protested against the project on the outskirts of Muzaffarabad in Azad jammu and Kashmir. "We want to tell India that building bridges and laying roads in the name of development will not make the people of Kashmir give up their demand for freedom," said Azir Ahmad Ghazali, who organised the rally attended by Kashmiris who fled unrest on the Indian side in the 1990s. "In clear and unequivocal terms, we want to say to the Indian government that the people of Kashmir have never accepted India's forced rule." Modi also announced further government financial support for families whose relatives were killed, or whose homes were damaged, during the brief conflict --- mainly in shelling along the Line of Control. "Their troubles are our troubles," Modi said.
Express Tribune
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Indian soldier killed in IIOJK battle
Listen to article An Indian soldier was killed on Thursday during heavy clashes with freedom fighters in Indian-Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, the army said, reporting that a "fierce gunfight" was ongoing. The soldier had "sustained grievous injuries in the exchange of fire" and had died "despite best medical efforts", the Indian army's White Knight Corps said. The army said earlier on Thursday it was carrying out operations with police to "neutralize the terrorists" and that reinforcements had been called in. The clashes in Kishtwar, around 125 kilometres southeast of Srinagar, come a month after the deadly April 22 attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir, which sent relations between India and Pakistan spiralling towards a war.
