20-07-2025
India's sugar exports touch around 700,000 tonnes, hopes of 900,000 tonnes by Sep
India exported 650,000–700,000 tonnes of sugar between 20 January and mid-July, and the world's second-largest producer may ship out more if global white sugar prices increase from the current low levels of $484 per tonne, according to traders.
The sweetener was exported to Somalia, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, UAE, Libya and Tanzania after the Centre on 20 January allowed exports of one million tonnes.
"In the International market (London), white sugar prices touched $555 per tonne on 25 February. However, currently it is hovering around $484 per tonne due to improved global supply. Domestic sugar prices are firm compared to the international market, at around $430-450 per tonne. For Indian sugar mills, it makes sense to export when the prices are around $502 per tonne," said a trade analyst with a sugar firm.
The food ministry has allowed over 500 sugar mills a uniform export quota of just over 3% of their three-year average production, which they can export directly or via merchant exporters.
'While current London white sugar prices are low, additional volumes could still be exported if global market conditions turn favourable, offering exporters flexibility to utilize available allocations. We are expecting around 800,000 tonnes to be exported by September end,' said Deepak Ballani, director general, Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers' Association (ISMA).
According to ISMA, as of mid-July 2025, 6.5-700,000 tonnes of sugar have been exported from India.
According to Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF), 900,000 tonnes of sugar are likely to be exported from the country by 30 September.
Millers feel that demand is likely to grow in the domestic market as the monsoon advances.
Sugar production in 2024-25 is projected to be around 26 million tonnes. This includes 25.74 million tonnes produced up to mid-May, along with an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes anticipated from the special crushing season in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, which typically runs from June/July to September 2025.
The season commenced with an opening stock of 8 million tonnes. Considering the projected domestic consumption of 28 million tonnes and export estimates of up to 900,000 tonnes, the closing stock is likely to be around 5.2–5.3 million tonnes, according to ISMA.
This reflects a comfortable buffer, ensuring that the country has sufficient sugar stock to meet its domestic sugar demand, according to Ballani of ISMA.
The 2025–26 sugar season is shaping up to be promising, buoyed by several positive developments across key sugar-producing regions, according to the agriculture ministry. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, sugarcane planting has shown significant improvement, thanks to a favourable south-west monsoon. Overall, sugarcane area is up marginally on year at 5.51 million hectares as on 11 July.
Supported by strong cane availability, the stage is set for a timely start to the crushing season in October 2025. In the northern belt, including Uttar Pradesh, varietal replacement initiatives are expected to yield tangible benefits.
These efforts are expected to result in higher cane yields and improved sugar recovery rates, according to Naiknavare of NFCSF.
According to Crisil ratings, India's gross sugar production is likely to rise about 15% in the sugar season 2026 to about 35 million tonnes, aided by above-average monsoon, boosting cane acreage and yields in key sugar-producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka.
The growth is expected to ease tightness in domestic supply and has the potential to boost ethanol diversion and revive exports with appropriate policy support.
