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USA Today
02-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice
Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice The 2025 college football season continues to near. With the start of May, spring practice sessions and transfer portal movement are mostly complete. The summer recruiting rush is just around the corner, which directly precedes fall training camp. The Big Ten Conference is set for another season of intrigue. Notably, it will be the second year for former Pac-12 powers USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon as conference members. The group experienced mixed results in 2024, with Oregon winning the conference, Washington and USC narrowly making bowl games and UCLA missing the postseason entirely. The Trojans, Huskies and Bruins all have expectations of a resurgence entering 2025, while it's reasonable to expect the Ducks to take a step back from their nation's-best position. Ohio State will enter the year as the reigning national champion. It will also do so amid a lengthy losing streak to rival Michigan, creating intriguing stakes for the regular-season finale, this year played in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Those two teams will look to fend off a Penn State team that broke through to the College Football Playoff in 2024 and now returns its starting quarterback and two star running backs. That is all of the intrigue at the top of the conference. But just as important, if a team is to have an Indiana-like breakthrough, is it most likely to be former Big Ten West teams Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Nebraska? Or can the Hoosiers repeat their 11-1 2024 regular season? Those questions will be answered when the season kicks off this fall. For now, it's time for updated win-loss projections for every team after spring practice and the recent transfer portal window. Purdue Boilermakers Projected Record: 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 1-11 (0-9 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. USC at Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Projected Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois Projected Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Indiana, Rutgers It's hard to predict Purdue to take any significant steps forward in Barry Odom's first year at the helm. The team saw practically its entire roster turn over from last season, including standout tight end Max Klare (transfer, Ohio State) and safety Dillon Thieneman (transfer, Oregon). The cupboard was too bare for Odom when he arrived. Anything better than 2024's 1-11 finish is a step in the right direction. Northwestern Wildcats Projected Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Oregon at Penn State vs. Michigan Projected Wins: Western Illinois, ULM, Purdue Projected Losses: Tulane, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA Northwestern was down at No. 87 in Bill Connelly's initial SP+ ranking in late February. The team now brings in a 12-player transfer class, led by former SMU quarterback Preston Stone. He should give the Wildcats a significant upgrade over what they had at the position last season. Still, the team's schedule is a gauntlet. Four wins would be a positive outcome. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Oregon at Ohio State vs. Penn State Projected Wins: Ohio, Miami (OH), Norfolk State, Purdue Projected Losses: Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland Rutgers' current two-year bowl streak may come to an end in 2025. The team is tasked with rebuilding nearly its entire defense, which it attempted to do with six transfer additions. SP+ has that unit ranked No. 42 nationally, plus the overall team ranked No. 43. The defense will likely need to ascend toward the nation's top 30 for the Scarlet Knights to reach a bowl game. The team's challenging schedule includes the trio of Oregon, Ohio State and Pen State, as well as Iowa, Minnesota, Washington and Illinois. Maryland Terrapins Projected Record: 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Illinois vs. Michigan at Michigan State Projected Wins: Florida Atlantic, NIU, Towson, Michigan State, Rutgers Projected Losses: Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan Maryland enters 2025 with a clear downgrade at quarterback, landing UCLA transfer Justyn Martin after 2024 starter Billy Edwards Jr. left for Wisconsin. That area alone won't define the Terrapins' season, however. The team was among the worst in the conference along the offensive line last year. Football Championship Subdivision transfer Rahtrel Perry, the team's projected starting left tackle, could be one of its most important players. Even with a potential O-line upgrade, it's hard to see the Terps excelling in conference play. Michigan State Spartans Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at USC vs Michigan vs Penn State Projected Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, USC, UCLA, Minnesota Projected Losses: Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Maryland Michigan State received a fortunate scheduling draw, missing Ohio State and Oregon. The team will need a big step forward from quarterback Aidan Chiles. Transfer starters at center, right guard and right tackle will play a big role in whether that becomes the reality. This needs to be a bowl-game-or-bust season for the Spartans and coach Jonathan Smith. Otherwise, real questions could arise about the future of his tenure. Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire Indiana Hoosiers Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Oregon at Iowa at Penn State Projected Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue Projected Losses: Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, Wisconsin, UCLA Indiana should be a popular regression candidate in 2025. The team lost significant contributors from its 2024 team, including NFL draft picks quarterback Kurtis Rourke and defensive lineman C.J. West. The Hoosiers' floor has risen significantly under Cignetti. Backing up last year with a bowl appearance would keep positive momentum entering 2026. Wisconsin Badgers Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Alabama Ohio State at Oregon Projected Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Iowa, Washington, Indiana Projected Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota Wisconsin faces the toughest schedule in the conference this season. While the team should be much improved after a poor 2024 campaign, it still may be a few years away from a breakthrough. A season-ending injury to starting left tackle Kevin Heywood is also a major blow to an offense that badly needs a bounce-back season. Making a bowl game should be considered a win for the Badgers. It will likely come down to the closing stretch against Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota. Minnesota Golden Gophers Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 8-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Ohio State at Oregon vs Wisconsin Projected Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin Projected Losses: Cal, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Oregon Minnesota has a manageable schedule other than the Ohio State and Oregon matchups. The team has established a strong, consistent baseline of winning. That culture should again be on display with an experienced defense, most of which elected to stay after coordinator Corey Hetherman left for Miami. The big question will be at quarterback, where redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey is taking over for 2024 standout Max Brosmer. Iowa Hawkeyes Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 8-5 (6-3 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Penn State vs. Oregon at Nebraska Projected Wins: Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan State Projected Losses: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Penn State, USC, Nebraska Iowa should again be a write-in for a 7-5 or 8-4 finish. The team appears to have made a major upgrade at quarterback in FCS transfer Mark Gronowski. If the defense remains in the nation's top 10 and a replacement for star running back Kaleb Johnson emerges, the Hawkeyes could threaten nine or 10 wins. Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire UCLA Bruins Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Penn State vs. Washington at USC Projected Wins: Utah, UNLV, New Mexico, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, Washington Projected Losses: Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, USC UCLA's spring addition of quarterback Nico Iamaleava immediately raises the team's ceiling. The former Tennessee Volunteer played in the CFP last season, after being a consensus five-star recruit in the class of 2023. If he hits, the Bruins could near the eight-win mark. Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire Washington Huskies Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 6-7 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Ohio State at Michigan vs. Oregon Projected Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Oregon Projected Losses: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, UCLA Washington should be a popular sleeper pick entering 2025. The team could have one of the Big Ten's better young quarterbacks in Demond Williams Fisch getting a full offseason of player movement, paired with improved quarterback play, could equal a breakthrough. The Huskies are currently No. 38 in SP+, which feels low. Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire USC Trojans Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Michigan at Notre Dame at Oregon Projected Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA Projected Losses: Michigan State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Illinois Morale is high in Los Angeles, California, where the Trojans are currently recruiting like the top program in the sport. On the field in 2025, coordinator D'Anton Lynn will take another shot at turning around years of defensive struggles under coach Lincoln Riley. Oddly, the bigger question may come on offense. Quarterback Jayden Maiava was up-and-down in relief of Miller Moss last season. The Trojans won't return to CFP contention without Heisman-caliber play under center. Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire Nebraska Cornhuskers Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs Michigan vs USC at Penn State Projected Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, HCU, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa Projected Losses: Minnesota, UCLA, USC, Penn State Here we are again, predicting a breakthrough season for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Copy and paste any preseason blurb from the last few decades: the team is talented, it has an up-and-coming quarterback and the schedule falls favorably. Wins over UCLA and USC could stand between the team and a 10-win season. Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire Oregon Ducks Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 13-1 (9-0 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Penn State vs. Iowa vs. USC Projected Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, USC Projected Losses: Penn State, Iowa, Washington File Oregon into the group of programs that should take a step back in 2025. The team lost major contributors on both sides of the ball, headlined by quarterback Dillon Gabriel. While the Ducks' recruiting is among the best in the sport, it's challenging to predict similar success with the team replacing seven offensive starters. A 9-3 finish and outside CFP contention should be the expectation. Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire Michigan Wolverines Projected Record: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 8-5 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Oklahoma at Nebraska vs. Ohio State Projected Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Ohio State Projected Losses: Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC Michigan is in line for a major step forward after a red-hot finish to the 2024 season. The big question is at quarterback, where five-star freshman Bryce Underwood is set to compete for the starting role. Strong play under center will be the difference between another 7-5 regular season and a 9-3 finish. Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire Illinois Fighting Illini Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 10-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs Ohio State vs USC at Wisconsin Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Duke, Western Michigan, Indiana, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern Projected Losses: Ohio State, Washington Our temperature on Illinois has not changed since before the spring session. The Fighting Illini return nearly their entire team after a 10-win 2024 season. They also get a light schedule, avoiding Oregon, Penn State and Michigan. This is the year for the team to make a CFP run. Ohio State Buckeyes Projected Record: 10-2 (8-1 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 14-2 (7-2 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Texas vs. Penn State at Michigan Projected Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers Projected Losses: Texas, Michigan Ohio State saw 14 players selected during the 2025 NFL draft, including four in the first round. That accurately reflects the level of talent on last year's national title-winning team. The Buckeyes should again be quite good this season. A repeat of 2024 will be a tough ask, unless former five-star prospect Julian Sayin pairs up with star receiver Jeremiah Smith for a Heisman-caliber season. Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire Penn State Nittany Lions Projected Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 13-3 (8-1 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Oregon at Ohio State at Iowa Projected Wins: Nevada, FIU, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers Projected Losses: Ohio State Penn State is our post-spring pick to be the best team in the Big Ten this season. It returns Drew Allar under center, plus Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen at running back. Even with several players gone to the NFL, including star tight end Tyler Warren, the Nittany Lions did more 'reload' than 'rebuild' after their CFP breakthrough in 2024. Syracuse wide receiver Trebor Pena is the top spring addition to note. Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion
Fox Sports
11-04-2025
- Sport
- Fox Sports
Bear Bytes: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica examines 2025 college football win totals
The NCAA Tournament has ended, which means a good bit of my focus has shifted to college football. Season win totals and odds to win conferences are popping up. So here are some schedule notes — or Bear Bytes, as I like to call them — to consider when deciding whether to make a bet. SMU SMU had one of the easiest schedules in the ACC last year and rode it all the way to the ACC Championship Game and a CFP berth. However, the Ponies might be a fade this year, as the 2025 slate includes home games against Baylor, Louisville and Miami, as well as a trip to Clemson, which defeated SMU in Charlotte a year ago. SMU's win total of 8.5 is representative of that slate. Under feels like the way to go here. Florida State FSU was a disastrous 2-10 last year, and I'm not sure how much better the Noles will be. They have an opener against Alabama, a home game with Miami, as well as road games at Clemson, Florida and NC State. The Noles might be hard-pressed to make a bowl game, considering most ACC games they are in wouldn't be considered gimmes — despite bringing in Gus Malzahn as OC and Boston College castoff Thomas Castellanos as quarterback. Under 7.5 wins is juiced but one of the few win totals I've already fired on. Arizona State ASU went from last in the Big 12 preseason poll to conference champs behind RB Cam Skattebo and QB Sam Leavitt. Was it a sign of bigger things to come under Kenny Dillingham? Or was it all a potential setup for a fall, given the departure of Skattebo and a schedule that has road games at Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State and Utah. ASU's win total is 8.5. Texas Tech Tech has been active in the portal and might be one of those teams that winds up being better than its record indicates. The Red Raiders' win total is 8.5 and five road games — Arizona State, Houston, Kansas State, Utah and West Virginia — look like possible losses. Illinois The Illini are everyone's trendy Big Ten sleeper this season. Yes, there's reason for optimism in Champaign, but expecting an Indiana-like run to the CFP might be asking a bit much. The Fighting Illini's win total sits at 7.5 and there are likely five toss-up games, at minimum. That includes USC at home and at Duke, Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, as well as a home game against Ohio State. Against the Buckeyes, the Illini will be a considerable underdog. Indiana The Hoosiers' non-conference schedule is as laughable as it was last season in its magical 11-2 season. The Hoosiers have Old Dominion, Indiana State and Kennesaw State as their sacrificial non-conference lambs. But after having road games at UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State last year (as well as a blowout loss at Ohio State), the Hoosiers have to go to Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. The oddsmakers have posted a win total of 8.5, which certainly takes into account the three auto non-conference wins. Assuming IU loses at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State, that means it would have to run the table against Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, at Maryland, Wisconsin and at Purdue to hit nine wins. Michigan Michigan's schedule is certainly front-loaded with games at Oklahoma, Nebraska and USC in the first half of the season. This is not ideal because the Wolverines will be breaking in a new QB and replacing a couple of impact players on defense (Mason Graham and Will Johnson) and TE Colston Loveland. But survive that — which means going at least 2-1 in those three games — and the Wolverines could build up a lot of momentum prior to The Game in Ann Arbor on Nov. 29. Before the Ohio State game, the Wolverines play at Michigan State, Purdue, at Northwestern and at Maryland. Those teams combined to go 6-30 in Big Ten play last year. The Wolverines' win total is 8.5 juiced to the Over. Nebraska Will the Matt Rhule Year 3 bump happen in Lincoln? The Huskers don't have a true road game until Oct. 11 at Maryland. Michigan, USC and Iowa are in Lincoln. The true road games are Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA and Penn State. It seems like we've been saying it every year lately, but there's a chance Nebraska might have only one or two losses and a potential CFP berth on the line entering the Nov. 22 trip to Penn State. If QB Dylan Raiola progresses this season, the hype will be through the roof. Hype has not reached the win total, as Nebraska is still at 7.5, which seems to indicate bettors and oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see approach this season. Oregon Reigning Big Ten Champion Oregon lost QB Dillon Gabriel and other key contributors. But with road games at Northwestern, SUNJ, Iowa, Washington and Penn State, along with a home schedule where the Ducks should be double-digit favorites in every game, 10-2 and another CFP berth seems the worst-case scenario. Unless, of course, QB Dante Moore does not live up to the hype and expectations as one of the top QB recruits from his class. Penn State Despite reaching the CFP Semifinals last year, the Nittany Lions did nothing to change the perception of the program and the ability to win big games. Penn State lost at home to Ohio State and in the Big Ten title game. The Lions will get two more chances this year to change the narrative as they host Oregon on Sept. 27 and visit Ohio State on Nov. 1. Both are among the most-anticipated games of the regular season. Anything short of 10-2 and another CFB berth will be a disappointment. And that's what the oddsmakers see as well, putting Penn State's win total at 10.5. Wisconsin I just don't see how this is going to go well for Wisconsin. The Badgers have the return trip to Alabama, and visit Michigan, Oregon, Indiana and Minnesota. It's not the easiest of home slates either, with Iowa, Ohio State and Washington visiting Madison. There's a chance the Badgers are 3-5 entering the idle week and that would make for some uneasy chatter surrounding the program. Wisconsin's win total is 5.5, and I have already fired on the Under. Notre Dame The Irish open with a game at Miami and a home game against Texas A&M. That might lead to opportunities to get a better price on Notre Dame to make the CFP after a couple of games, as was the case in 2024. Winning out after those two games isn't farfetched at all. With the final five games of the season at BC, Navy, at Pitt, Syracuse and at Stanford, it seems like an opportunity to climb up the rankings and into solid CFP contention. Notre Dame's win total is 10.5, heavily juiced to the Under. Florida Florida again gets no breaks from the schedule maker. The Gators are at LSU, at Miami, have a bye, play Texas then go to A&M. Then they have Georgia, they're at Ole Miss, Tennessee and FSU. Is DJ Lagway good enough to lead the Gators to seven wins and push them over the win total of 6.5? Georgia The Dawgs visit Knoxville and host Alabama before the end of September. Unlike last year, Georgia gets Texas and Ole Miss in Athens. LSU Despite the presence of QB Garrett Nussmeier, I'm not seeing the CFP contender buzz surrounding LSU. It feels a lot like the type of season Alabama and Ole Miss had in 2024 could be in store for the Tigers. LSU has Clemson, Florida and Ole Miss. Clemson and Ole Miss are on the road and within the first five games of the season. The Tigers also visit Alabama and Oklahoma and host South Carolina and Texas A&M. LSU's win total is 8.5, and it sure feels like 9-3 will be hard to come by. Oklahoma OU underwent a massive program overhaul on the staff and roster and the early part of the schedule might allow OU to build some momentum and positive vibes. The only time the Sooners leave the state prior to the Texas game is a visit to Temple. If the Sooners can beat Michigan and/or Auburn and former QB Jackson Arnold at home, it would be vital for a winning season. The back end of the schedule is brutal. They've got Texas, they're at South Carolina, play Ole Miss, they're at Tennessee and at Alabama. Then they play Missouri and LSU. Oklahoma's win total is 6.5 and failure to go over might result in some tough decisions having to be made in Norman. Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @ chrisfallica . Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? 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