Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice

USA Today

02-05-2025

Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice
The 2025 college football season continues to near. With the start of May, spring practice sessions and transfer portal movement are mostly complete. The summer recruiting rush is just around the corner, which directly precedes fall training camp.
The Big Ten Conference is set for another season of intrigue. Notably, it will be the second year for former Pac-12 powers USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon as conference members. The group experienced mixed results in 2024, with Oregon winning the conference, Washington and USC narrowly making bowl games and UCLA missing the postseason entirely. The Trojans, Huskies and Bruins all have expectations of a resurgence entering 2025, while it's reasonable to expect the Ducks to take a step back from their nation's-best position.
Ohio State will enter the year as the reigning national champion. It will also do so amid a lengthy losing streak to rival Michigan, creating intriguing stakes for the regular-season finale, this year played in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Those two teams will look to fend off a Penn State team that broke through to the College Football Playoff in 2024 and now returns its starting quarterback and two star running backs.
That is all of the intrigue at the top of the conference. But just as important, if a team is to have an Indiana-like breakthrough, is it most likely to be former Big Ten West teams Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Nebraska? Or can the Hoosiers repeat their 11-1 2024 regular season?
Those questions will be answered when the season kicks off this fall. For now, it's time for updated win-loss projections for every team after spring practice and the recent transfer portal window.
Purdue Boilermakers
Projected Record: 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 1-11 (0-9 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. USC
at Notre Dame
vs. Ohio State
Projected Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois
Projected Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Indiana, Rutgers
It's hard to predict Purdue to take any significant steps forward in Barry Odom's first year at the helm. The team saw practically its entire roster turn over from last season, including standout tight end Max Klare (transfer, Ohio State) and safety Dillon Thieneman (transfer, Oregon). The cupboard was too bare for Odom when he arrived. Anything better than 2024's 1-11 finish is a step in the right direction.
Northwestern Wildcats
Projected Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Oregon
at Penn State
vs. Michigan
Projected Wins: Western Illinois, ULM, Purdue
Projected Losses: Tulane, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA
Northwestern was down at No. 87 in Bill Connelly's initial SP+ ranking in late February. The team now brings in a 12-player transfer class, led by former SMU quarterback Preston Stone. He should give the Wildcats a significant upgrade over what they had at the position last season. Still, the team's schedule is a gauntlet. Four wins would be a positive outcome.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Oregon
at Ohio State
vs. Penn State
Projected Wins: Ohio, Miami (OH), Norfolk State, Purdue
Projected Losses: Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland
Rutgers' current two-year bowl streak may come to an end in 2025. The team is tasked with rebuilding nearly its entire defense, which it attempted to do with six transfer additions. SP+ has that unit ranked No. 42 nationally, plus the overall team ranked No. 43. The defense will likely need to ascend toward the nation's top 30 for the Scarlet Knights to reach a bowl game. The team's challenging schedule includes the trio of Oregon, Ohio State and Pen State, as well as Iowa, Minnesota, Washington and Illinois.
Maryland Terrapins
Projected Record: 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
at Illinois
vs. Michigan
at Michigan State
Projected Wins: Florida Atlantic, NIU, Towson, Michigan State, Rutgers
Projected Losses: Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan
Maryland enters 2025 with a clear downgrade at quarterback, landing UCLA transfer Justyn Martin after 2024 starter Billy Edwards Jr. left for Wisconsin. That area alone won't define the Terrapins' season, however. The team was among the worst in the conference along the offensive line last year. Football Championship Subdivision transfer Rahtrel Perry, the team's projected starting left tackle, could be one of its most important players. Even with a potential O-line upgrade, it's hard to see the Terps excelling in conference play.
Michigan State Spartans
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
at USC
vs Michigan
vs Penn State
Projected Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, USC, UCLA, Minnesota
Projected Losses: Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Maryland
Michigan State received a fortunate scheduling draw, missing Ohio State and Oregon. The team will need a big step forward from quarterback Aidan Chiles. Transfer starters at center, right guard and right tackle will play a big role in whether that becomes the reality. This needs to be a bowl-game-or-bust season for the Spartans and coach Jonathan Smith. Otherwise, real questions could arise about the future of his tenure.
Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire
Indiana Hoosiers
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
at Oregon
at Iowa
at Penn State
Projected Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue
Projected Losses: Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, Wisconsin, UCLA
Indiana should be a popular regression candidate in 2025. The team lost significant contributors from its 2024 team, including NFL draft picks quarterback Kurtis Rourke and defensive lineman C.J. West. The Hoosiers' floor has risen significantly under Cignetti. Backing up last year with a bowl appearance would keep positive momentum entering 2026.
Wisconsin Badgers
Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
at Alabama
Ohio State
at Oregon
Projected Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Iowa, Washington, Indiana
Projected Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota
Wisconsin faces the toughest schedule in the conference this season. While the team should be much improved after a poor 2024 campaign, it still may be a few years away from a breakthrough. A season-ending injury to starting left tackle Kevin Heywood is also a major blow to an offense that badly needs a bounce-back season. Making a bowl game should be considered a win for the Badgers. It will likely come down to the closing stretch against Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 8-5 (5-4 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
at Ohio State
at Oregon
vs Wisconsin
Projected Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Projected Losses: Cal, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Oregon
Minnesota has a manageable schedule other than the Ohio State and Oregon matchups. The team has established a strong, consistent baseline of winning. That culture should again be on display with an experienced defense, most of which elected to stay after coordinator Corey Hetherman left for Miami. The big question will be at quarterback, where redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey is taking over for 2024 standout Max Brosmer.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 8-5 (6-3 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Penn State
vs. Oregon
at Nebraska
Projected Wins: Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan State
Projected Losses: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Penn State, USC, Nebraska
Iowa should again be a write-in for a 7-5 or 8-4 finish. The team appears to have made a major upgrade at quarterback in FCS transfer Mark Gronowski. If the defense remains in the nation's top 10 and a replacement for star running back Kaleb Johnson emerges, the Hawkeyes could threaten nine or 10 wins.
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
UCLA Bruins
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Penn State
vs. Washington
at USC
Projected Wins: Utah, UNLV, New Mexico, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, Washington
Projected Losses: Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, USC
UCLA's spring addition of quarterback Nico Iamaleava immediately raises the team's ceiling. The former Tennessee Volunteer played in the CFP last season, after being a consensus five-star recruit in the class of 2023. If he hits, the Bruins could near the eight-win mark.
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire
Washington Huskies
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 6-7 (4-5 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Ohio State
at Michigan
vs. Oregon
Projected Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Oregon
Projected Losses: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, UCLA
Washington should be a popular sleeper pick entering 2025. The team could have one of the Big Ten's better young quarterbacks in Demond Williams Jr.Jedd Fisch getting a full offseason of player movement, paired with improved quarterback play, could equal a breakthrough. The Huskies are currently No. 38 in SP+, which feels low.
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire
USC Trojans
Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Michigan
at Notre Dame
at Oregon
Projected Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA
Projected Losses: Michigan State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Illinois
Morale is high in Los Angeles, California, where the Trojans are currently recruiting like the top program in the sport. On the field in 2025, coordinator D'Anton Lynn will take another shot at turning around years of defensive struggles under coach Lincoln Riley. Oddly, the bigger question may come on offense. Quarterback Jayden Maiava was up-and-down in relief of Miller Moss last season. The Trojans won't return to CFP contention without Heisman-caliber play under center.
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs Michigan
vs USC
at Penn State
Projected Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, HCU, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa
Projected Losses: Minnesota, UCLA, USC, Penn State
Here we are again, predicting a breakthrough season for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Copy and paste any preseason blurb from the last few decades: the team is talented, it has an up-and-coming quarterback and the schedule falls favorably. Wins over UCLA and USC could stand between the team and a 10-win season.
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire
Oregon Ducks
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 13-1 (9-0 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
at Penn State
vs. Iowa
vs. USC
Projected Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, USC
Projected Losses: Penn State, Iowa, Washington
File Oregon into the group of programs that should take a step back in 2025. The team lost major contributors on both sides of the ball, headlined by quarterback Dillon Gabriel. While the Ducks' recruiting is among the best in the sport, it's challenging to predict similar success with the team replacing seven offensive starters. A 9-3 finish and outside CFP contention should be the expectation.
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
Michigan Wolverines
Projected Record: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 8-5 (4-5 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
at Oklahoma
at Nebraska
vs. Ohio State
Projected Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Ohio State
Projected Losses: Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC
Michigan is in line for a major step forward after a red-hot finish to the 2024 season. The big question is at quarterback, where five-star freshman Bryce Underwood is set to compete for the starting role. Strong play under center will be the difference between another 7-5 regular season and a 9-3 finish.
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 10-3 (6-3 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs Ohio State
vs USC
at Wisconsin
Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Duke, Western Michigan, Indiana, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern
Projected Losses: Ohio State, Washington
Our temperature on Illinois has not changed since before the spring session. The Fighting Illini return nearly their entire team after a 10-win 2024 season. They also get a light schedule, avoiding Oregon, Penn State and Michigan. This is the year for the team to make a CFP run.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected Record: 10-2 (8-1 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 14-2 (7-2 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Texas
vs. Penn State
at Michigan
Projected Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers
Projected Losses: Texas, Michigan
Ohio State saw 14 players selected during the 2025 NFL draft, including four in the first round. That accurately reflects the level of talent on last year's national title-winning team. The Buckeyes should again be quite good this season. A repeat of 2024 will be a tough ask, unless former five-star prospect Julian Sayin pairs up with star receiver Jeremiah Smith for a Heisman-caliber season.
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire
Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)
Record in 2024: 13-3 (8-1 Big Ten)
Most Notable Games
vs. Oregon
at Ohio State
at Iowa
Projected Wins: Nevada, FIU, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers
Projected Losses: Ohio State
Penn State is our post-spring pick to be the best team in the Big Ten this season. It returns Drew Allar under center, plus Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen at running back. Even with several players gone to the NFL, including star tight end Tyler Warren, the Nittany Lions did more 'reload' than 'rebuild' after their CFP breakthrough in 2024. Syracuse wide receiver Trebor Pena is the top spring addition to note.
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire
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