Latest news with #BigTenWest
USA Today
02-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice
Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice The 2025 college football season continues to near. With the start of May, spring practice sessions and transfer portal movement are mostly complete. The summer recruiting rush is just around the corner, which directly precedes fall training camp. The Big Ten Conference is set for another season of intrigue. Notably, it will be the second year for former Pac-12 powers USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon as conference members. The group experienced mixed results in 2024, with Oregon winning the conference, Washington and USC narrowly making bowl games and UCLA missing the postseason entirely. The Trojans, Huskies and Bruins all have expectations of a resurgence entering 2025, while it's reasonable to expect the Ducks to take a step back from their nation's-best position. Ohio State will enter the year as the reigning national champion. It will also do so amid a lengthy losing streak to rival Michigan, creating intriguing stakes for the regular-season finale, this year played in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Those two teams will look to fend off a Penn State team that broke through to the College Football Playoff in 2024 and now returns its starting quarterback and two star running backs. That is all of the intrigue at the top of the conference. But just as important, if a team is to have an Indiana-like breakthrough, is it most likely to be former Big Ten West teams Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Nebraska? Or can the Hoosiers repeat their 11-1 2024 regular season? Those questions will be answered when the season kicks off this fall. For now, it's time for updated win-loss projections for every team after spring practice and the recent transfer portal window. Purdue Boilermakers Projected Record: 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 1-11 (0-9 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. USC at Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Projected Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois Projected Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Indiana, Rutgers It's hard to predict Purdue to take any significant steps forward in Barry Odom's first year at the helm. The team saw practically its entire roster turn over from last season, including standout tight end Max Klare (transfer, Ohio State) and safety Dillon Thieneman (transfer, Oregon). The cupboard was too bare for Odom when he arrived. Anything better than 2024's 1-11 finish is a step in the right direction. Northwestern Wildcats Projected Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Oregon at Penn State vs. Michigan Projected Wins: Western Illinois, ULM, Purdue Projected Losses: Tulane, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA Northwestern was down at No. 87 in Bill Connelly's initial SP+ ranking in late February. The team now brings in a 12-player transfer class, led by former SMU quarterback Preston Stone. He should give the Wildcats a significant upgrade over what they had at the position last season. Still, the team's schedule is a gauntlet. Four wins would be a positive outcome. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Oregon at Ohio State vs. Penn State Projected Wins: Ohio, Miami (OH), Norfolk State, Purdue Projected Losses: Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland Rutgers' current two-year bowl streak may come to an end in 2025. The team is tasked with rebuilding nearly its entire defense, which it attempted to do with six transfer additions. SP+ has that unit ranked No. 42 nationally, plus the overall team ranked No. 43. The defense will likely need to ascend toward the nation's top 30 for the Scarlet Knights to reach a bowl game. The team's challenging schedule includes the trio of Oregon, Ohio State and Pen State, as well as Iowa, Minnesota, Washington and Illinois. Maryland Terrapins Projected Record: 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Illinois vs. Michigan at Michigan State Projected Wins: Florida Atlantic, NIU, Towson, Michigan State, Rutgers Projected Losses: Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan Maryland enters 2025 with a clear downgrade at quarterback, landing UCLA transfer Justyn Martin after 2024 starter Billy Edwards Jr. left for Wisconsin. That area alone won't define the Terrapins' season, however. The team was among the worst in the conference along the offensive line last year. Football Championship Subdivision transfer Rahtrel Perry, the team's projected starting left tackle, could be one of its most important players. Even with a potential O-line upgrade, it's hard to see the Terps excelling in conference play. Michigan State Spartans Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at USC vs Michigan vs Penn State Projected Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, USC, UCLA, Minnesota Projected Losses: Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Maryland Michigan State received a fortunate scheduling draw, missing Ohio State and Oregon. The team will need a big step forward from quarterback Aidan Chiles. Transfer starters at center, right guard and right tackle will play a big role in whether that becomes the reality. This needs to be a bowl-game-or-bust season for the Spartans and coach Jonathan Smith. Otherwise, real questions could arise about the future of his tenure. Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire Indiana Hoosiers Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Oregon at Iowa at Penn State Projected Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue Projected Losses: Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, Wisconsin, UCLA Indiana should be a popular regression candidate in 2025. The team lost significant contributors from its 2024 team, including NFL draft picks quarterback Kurtis Rourke and defensive lineman C.J. West. The Hoosiers' floor has risen significantly under Cignetti. Backing up last year with a bowl appearance would keep positive momentum entering 2026. Wisconsin Badgers Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Alabama Ohio State at Oregon Projected Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Iowa, Washington, Indiana Projected Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota Wisconsin faces the toughest schedule in the conference this season. While the team should be much improved after a poor 2024 campaign, it still may be a few years away from a breakthrough. A season-ending injury to starting left tackle Kevin Heywood is also a major blow to an offense that badly needs a bounce-back season. Making a bowl game should be considered a win for the Badgers. It will likely come down to the closing stretch against Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota. Minnesota Golden Gophers Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 8-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Ohio State at Oregon vs Wisconsin Projected Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin Projected Losses: Cal, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Oregon Minnesota has a manageable schedule other than the Ohio State and Oregon matchups. The team has established a strong, consistent baseline of winning. That culture should again be on display with an experienced defense, most of which elected to stay after coordinator Corey Hetherman left for Miami. The big question will be at quarterback, where redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey is taking over for 2024 standout Max Brosmer. Iowa Hawkeyes Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 8-5 (6-3 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Penn State vs. Oregon at Nebraska Projected Wins: Albany, UMass, Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan State Projected Losses: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Penn State, USC, Nebraska Iowa should again be a write-in for a 7-5 or 8-4 finish. The team appears to have made a major upgrade at quarterback in FCS transfer Mark Gronowski. If the defense remains in the nation's top 10 and a replacement for star running back Kaleb Johnson emerges, the Hawkeyes could threaten nine or 10 wins. Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire UCLA Bruins Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Penn State vs. Washington at USC Projected Wins: Utah, UNLV, New Mexico, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, Washington Projected Losses: Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, USC UCLA's spring addition of quarterback Nico Iamaleava immediately raises the team's ceiling. The former Tennessee Volunteer played in the CFP last season, after being a consensus five-star recruit in the class of 2023. If he hits, the Bruins could near the eight-win mark. Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire Washington Huskies Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 6-7 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Ohio State at Michigan vs. Oregon Projected Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Oregon Projected Losses: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, UCLA Washington should be a popular sleeper pick entering 2025. The team could have one of the Big Ten's better young quarterbacks in Demond Williams Fisch getting a full offseason of player movement, paired with improved quarterback play, could equal a breakthrough. The Huskies are currently No. 38 in SP+, which feels low. Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire USC Trojans Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Michigan at Notre Dame at Oregon Projected Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA Projected Losses: Michigan State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Illinois Morale is high in Los Angeles, California, where the Trojans are currently recruiting like the top program in the sport. On the field in 2025, coordinator D'Anton Lynn will take another shot at turning around years of defensive struggles under coach Lincoln Riley. Oddly, the bigger question may come on offense. Quarterback Jayden Maiava was up-and-down in relief of Miller Moss last season. The Trojans won't return to CFP contention without Heisman-caliber play under center. Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire Nebraska Cornhuskers Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs Michigan vs USC at Penn State Projected Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, HCU, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa Projected Losses: Minnesota, UCLA, USC, Penn State Here we are again, predicting a breakthrough season for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Copy and paste any preseason blurb from the last few decades: the team is talented, it has an up-and-coming quarterback and the schedule falls favorably. Wins over UCLA and USC could stand between the team and a 10-win season. Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire Oregon Ducks Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 13-1 (9-0 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Penn State vs. Iowa vs. USC Projected Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, USC Projected Losses: Penn State, Iowa, Washington File Oregon into the group of programs that should take a step back in 2025. The team lost major contributors on both sides of the ball, headlined by quarterback Dillon Gabriel. While the Ducks' recruiting is among the best in the sport, it's challenging to predict similar success with the team replacing seven offensive starters. A 9-3 finish and outside CFP contention should be the expectation. Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire Michigan Wolverines Projected Record: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 8-5 (4-5 Big Ten) Most Notable Games at Oklahoma at Nebraska vs. Ohio State Projected Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Ohio State Projected Losses: Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC Michigan is in line for a major step forward after a red-hot finish to the 2024 season. The big question is at quarterback, where five-star freshman Bryce Underwood is set to compete for the starting role. Strong play under center will be the difference between another 7-5 regular season and a 9-3 finish. Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire Illinois Fighting Illini Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 10-3 (6-3 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs Ohio State vs USC at Wisconsin Projected Wins: Western Illinois, Duke, Western Michigan, Indiana, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern Projected Losses: Ohio State, Washington Our temperature on Illinois has not changed since before the spring session. The Fighting Illini return nearly their entire team after a 10-win 2024 season. They also get a light schedule, avoiding Oregon, Penn State and Michigan. This is the year for the team to make a CFP run. Ohio State Buckeyes Projected Record: 10-2 (8-1 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 14-2 (7-2 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Texas vs. Penn State at Michigan Projected Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers Projected Losses: Texas, Michigan Ohio State saw 14 players selected during the 2025 NFL draft, including four in the first round. That accurately reflects the level of talent on last year's national title-winning team. The Buckeyes should again be quite good this season. A repeat of 2024 will be a tough ask, unless former five-star prospect Julian Sayin pairs up with star receiver Jeremiah Smith for a Heisman-caliber season. Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire Penn State Nittany Lions Projected Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten) Record in 2024: 13-3 (8-1 Big Ten) Most Notable Games vs. Oregon at Ohio State at Iowa Projected Wins: Nevada, FIU, Villanova, Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers Projected Losses: Ohio State Penn State is our post-spring pick to be the best team in the Big Ten this season. It returns Drew Allar under center, plus Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen at running back. Even with several players gone to the NFL, including star tight end Tyler Warren, the Nittany Lions did more 'reload' than 'rebuild' after their CFP breakthrough in 2024. Syracuse wide receiver Trebor Pena is the top spring addition to note. Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion
New York Times
24-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Wisconsin football coach Luke Fickell ready to address arrogance, delusion of tenure
MADISON, Wis. — Luke Fickell was deep into a 30-minute conversation in his office last week when he used two words that highlighted what he believed to be part of the problem during his first two seasons as Wisconsin's football coach: arrogance and delusion. There are far more issues at play when a team is 12-13 under its coach, including 8-10 in the Big Ten, and coming off the program's first losing season and missed bowl game opportunity in 23 years. And Fickell was willing to go there, too. But from a big-picture perspective, this is where he starts. Advertisement 'I know the arrogance I would kick myself for is coming in and thinking, 'OK now, we're the best in the Big Ten West,'' Fickell said. 'And everybody in that locker room, because of the history of the last 15 years, would say we're the best in the West. And the truth of the matter is we're not. 'I know it's not the Big Ten West anymore. But it's that idea of let's just humble ourselves and let's go and work our way back and figure out how coach (Barry) Alvarez and them took this place to become the best in the West. And let's get ourselves to that point and then everything else will take care of itself. It's not the best 11, it's the 11 best that do s— together that give us a chance, the same way they built it here over the last 25 years.' Fickell's hiring at Wisconsin in November 2022 was met with enthusiasm because of his accomplishments at Cincinnati, where he became the only coach of a Group of 5 program to reach the four-team College Football Playoff. The Badgers were a few years removed from closing the previous decade with five Big Ten Championship Game appearances, and the aim was to restore that expectation and vie for a future spot in the 12-team Playoff field. But two years into Fickell's tenure, the Badgers haven't competed at a championship level and haven't won hardly any game of consequence. Fickell is 0-6 against AP Top 25 teams, and he has beaten just three opponents that finished the season with a winning record: Rutgers twice and FCS South Dakota. Wisconsin did reach 5-2 overall and 3-1 in Big Ten play in October. Then came a five-game losing streak to close the season that included competitive defeats to Playoff teams Penn State and Oregon along with three embarrassing losses to former West foes. Wisconsin was outscored by Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota 110-42. Fickell, who fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo during that stretch, said the team 'fell apart' and noted players struggled to recover from a 28-13 loss to the Nittany Lions that began the skid. Advertisement Fickell understands there is only so much he can say because the results speak for themselves. Until those change, nothing else really matters. But to help put Wisconsin back on the right path, he at least wanted to ensure a new level of transparency was shared with players when they returned for preseason workouts last month. 'I felt like I hadn't done a good enough job as a leader of being really honest,' Fickell said. 'Sometimes honesty is very difficult. And sometimes honesty can be a de-motivator for some. Through that process, that's what I mean by I think we were delusional, and I wasn't honest enough with us to say, 'Look guys, we're not better than so-and-so.' Honesty comes with being self-reflective to say, 'OK, where are we? Let's embrace the idea of where we really are and don't think we're someplace we're not.' If we can't be honest with each other, then it's really difficult to move forward.' Humility might represent a start. But Fickell's ability to fix all the issues that plagued the Badgers will define his third season and potentially his tenure at Wisconsin. Start with the offense, which came nowhere close to achieving its ceiling. All the excitement that Longo's variation of an air raid offense brought quickly fizzled. Wisconsin averaged 22.6 points per game last season, tied for 108th nationally. The mark was only slightly better than in Longo's first season when the Badgers averaged 22.5 points — the two worst seasons for the program consecutively since 1991 and 1992. Fickell fired Longo one day after Wisconsin's 16-13 loss to No. 1 Oregon with two games remaining in the regular season. 'I said it when we made the change offensively: It's more about leadership than it is just about scheme,' Fickell said. 'We all know that once people, if they stop believing in me, it's not a good thing. If they stop believing in the things that you do offensively or defensively, it's not a good thing. And that's where some of the changes have to be made, and we've got to get us pointed in another direction.' Advertisement Wisconsin did endure injuries to starting quarterbacks Tanner Mordecai and Tyler Van Dyke in each of Fickell's seasons. Van Dyke suffered a season-ending ACL tear in his right knee on the first series of the third game against Alabama that forced backup Braedyn Locke into action. Locke struggled with accuracy and decision-making and, like Van Dyke, transferred after the season. But the offense wasn't exactly humming before. Wisconsin trailed Western Michigan 14-13 in the season opener before a muffed fourth-quarter punt helped give the Badgers the lead. Fickell acknowledged he didn't do a good enough job of recognizing exactly what he wanted Wisconsin's offense to be or even the personnel across the roster capable of adapting well enough to succeed. Throughout the season, it was clear Fickell wanted to play with heavier packages and more physicality that better blended what Wisconsin has traditionally done well. 'I'm not pointing a finger at Phil,' Fickell said. 'I brought him here to run what it is that he runs and thought that we would be able to adapt a little bit more to some of the things I think that would suit us for who we are and what we need to do. Winning can mask that, and a few really good players can mask that. Tanner Mordecai is a really good football player and really good in that system. And had he not gotten hurt in Year 1, I really still think things would've been different. 'But as you go through it, there's just so much predicated in that system on the quarterback, and if you can't get really high-end, great quarterback play, I think it's really difficult to be able to lean on and rely upon, whether it's the O-line or your run game because that position is so critical. For us, I don't think moving forward that was the way in which we needed to continue to build.' GO DEEPER Who is Wisconsin football's new GM, and what does he bring the Badgers? Wisconsin's offense will look drastically different in 2025 because Fickell hired Jeff Grimes from Kansas as the offensive coordinator. Grimes, whose background is as an offensive line coach and run game coordinator, said the goal is to 'get Wisconsin back to what it's known for.' There are pieces in place that cause optimism. Wisconsin returns two of its best playmakers at wide receiver, three starters along the offensive line and a talented young backfield and has been infused with key transfer portal additions, including starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) and tight end Tanner Koziol (Ball State). The offense, however, was only part of the issue. Wisconsin's defense, though great at times, was dominated during other stretches. The Badgers surrendered at least 40 points in three games for the first time since 2001, including a 42-10 loss to Alabama in addition to blowout defeats against Iowa and Nebraska. They allowed Iowa, with a backup quarterback who passed just 10 times, to run for 329 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-10 romp. Fickell retained defensive coordinator Mike Tressel, who worked under Fickell for two seasons at Cincinnati. The focus this offseason was on tweaking personnel up front after the Badgers ranked 91st nationally in run defense at 165 yards allowed per game, the worst program mark in 19 years. Three defensive linemen transferred out, including starter Curt Neal, and Wisconsin brought in five defensive linemen from the portal. Nine of the team's 18 scholarship transfer additions came on the defensive line and at linebacker. Fickell said he is optimistic Wisconsin is in a better position structurally on offense and defense to move the program forward. Advertisement 'You've got to be bigger, you've got to be stronger, you've got to be able to win the line of scrimmage,' Fickell said. 'If there's anything that they've done here that's given them a chance to be as good as they have been over the last 25 years, it sure as hell is going to continue to be at the line of scrimmage. To be quite honest, as we went the other direction those last five weeks, it became more evident on the defensive line than it did anything else.' Wisconsin's roster will feature at least 41 new scholarship players next season — 23 true freshmen and 18 transfers not counting potential additions during the spring portal window. That doesn't guarantee results, as the last two seasons with large transfer classes under Fickell demonstrated. But Fickell said that, in hindsight, he believed the challenge Wisconsin faces now 'wasn't what a lot of people signed up for' and that moving on from some of them was important. He said he thought players would have a better understanding of daily expectations and what is required to succeed. Several hurdles stand in Wisconsin's way. The Badgers, who excelled at developing players, have a smaller window to do so in the portal and name, image and likeness era. The program has been forced to adapt to a changing landscape that now features 18 Big Ten teams and no divisions. When Fickell continually references the former Big Ten West, he means that Wisconsin's path to championships is more difficult and that the Badgers must begin by beating the teams they used to routinely beat just to have a chance. The schedule difficulty next season is undeniable. Wisconsin could play at least six Top 25 teams next season. There are road games against Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Indiana and Minnesota and home games against Iowa, Ohio State and Illinois, among others. The Badgers have never played more than five ranked teams during a regular season, and they will play seven of the eight teams that finished with a winning Big Ten record last season. GO DEEPER Luke Fickell pressure meter entering Year 3 at Wisconsin: Badgers mailbag 'You've got to make sure that you're built for the things that you are going to be challenged with,' Fickell said. 'I can honestly tell you in talks with the guys, whether they were coming back or in the recruiting process, especially for transfers, one of the No. 1 things I would do is set the schedule down in front of them and say, 'Look, we're not hiding. If your ass doesn't want this and you don't recognize that this is what it's about, then this is not going to be the place for you.' I would say we didn't get some guys because of that. But hopefully, we got the right ones because of it as well. 'We can b—- and complain about it, but it's not going to change it. So that's a part of that 'this isn't the Big Ten West anymore.' But that's why you've got to be focused on the process and do a better job. I've got to do a better job at making sure we're leading through the process and quit worrying about the destination of everything. We've got to see the growth.' Fickell, who made $7.7 million last season and earned a standard university one-year contract extension last week through 2032, understands there is increased scrutiny on his performance with each disappointing season. He repeatedly has said Wisconsin has a mountain to climb. How close he can get the Badgers to reaching the summit will dictate his future. Advertisement 'People are disappointed,' Fickell said. 'I can promise you that I'm a hell of a lot more disappointed. But as the leader and as the guy to continue to move forward, you can't take it out on the guys that you have now. It's not going to change the fact of what happened. 'I'm perfectly good with everybody's opinions for whatever they want and they have the right to say. It doesn't bother me. There's a pressure from within. We've got to be better. And what does better look like? I'm not going to sit here and say what that is. But I know this, that it's going to be from within first and you've got to see that better alignment, that better transition to the things that will ultimately prevail on the field.'
