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Business Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Thai business group cuts 2025 GDP forecast as US tariffs threaten exports
[BANGKOK] Thailand's export engine could stall, and the economy is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the year due to the impact of US tariffs, a leading Thai business group said on Wednesday (Jun 4). The economy was likely to grow by 1.5 per cent to 2.0 per cent this year, down from an earlier forecast of 2.0 per cent to 2.2 per cent, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said. Committee chair Payong Srivanich said annual growth would fall below 1 per cent in the second half of the year from 3 per cent in the first half, after the group cut its forecast for exports to a range of a drop of 0.5 per cent to a rise of 0.3 per cent, from 0.3 per cent to 0.9 per cent growth previously. Businesses were concerned about the uncertain status of trade negotiations with Washington, and the prospect that other nations could strike a better deal than Thailand. 'We also have to look at our neighbours ... if Vietnam receives a lower tariff than us, the impact will be quite severe,' Federation of Thai Industries chair Kriangkrai Thianuku said. Thailand faces a 36 per cent US tariff if a reduction can't be negotiated before a moratorium expires in July, while Vietnam faces a tariff rate of 46 per cent. Hanoi has held two rounds of talks with Washington. Payong said there were also concerns amongst firms that an appreciating baht would hit their competitiveness. REUTERS
CNA
07-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Thai business group says US tariffs will deliver hit to economy
BANGKOK :Thailand's economy and exports will grow less than expected this year because of U.S. tariffs, a leading business group said on Wednesday, adding the country could lose market share in the United States if a tariff reduction was not secured. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was now expected to grow between 2.0 per cent and 2.2 per cent this year, down from a previous forecast of 2.4 per cent to 2.9 per cent growth, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said. And exports, a key economic driver, were seen growing by between 0.3 per cent and 0.9 per cent this year, down from earlier projection of 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent growth, while expected tourist arrivals were cut to 36 million to 37 million, down from 39 million to 39.5 million. Thailand is among the Southeast Asian nations hardest hit by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy, facing a 36 per cent tariff on shipments to its biggest export market if a reduction cannot be negotiated before July. If the tariffs stand, the economy might grow by just 0.7 per cent this year, and lost export revenue over the next decade could be 1.4 trillion baht ($43 billion), said Kriengkrai Theinnukul, chair of the Federation of Thai Industries, part of the group. There was also a risk that other countries might negotiate better tariff terms and weaken Thai exports to the United States, Kriengkrai said. The United States took more than 18 per cent of Thai exports last year, worth $55 billion. Washington has put its trade deficit with Thailand at $45.6 billion. Kriengkrai said business was also worried about the strength of the baht, saying the government should make sure the currency does not appreciate too fast or become too volatile. The finance ministry last week cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 2.1 per cent from 3 per cent due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and a global slowdown. Thailand's economy has lagged regional peers since the pandemic, and the group said tariffs added to structural challenges such as high levels of household debt. ($1 = 32.64 baht)
Reuters
13-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Thai business group urges PM to negotiate with U.S. amid tariff fears
BANGKOK, March 13 (Reuters) - A Thai business group on Thursday urged Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to negotiate with the United States and consider lowering import taxes on U.S. goods, as the government met with the private sector to discuss U.S. trade policy uncertainty. The meeting comes ahead of a deadline U.S. President Donald Trump has set next month for federal agencies to complete comprehensive reviews of a range of trade issues, including analyses of persistent U.S. trade deficits. Thailand's Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, a private sector group, also proposed importing more U.S. goods to reduce the trade gap with Washington. "The private sector is satisfied with the discussion," Thai Chamber of Commerce head, Sanan Angubolkul, told reporters, adding Thailand would not be at a disadvantage in negotiations with the United States because businesses had shared information with the government. "Opening the market up to more imports was necessary ... but negotiations have to be held for the mutual benefit of both countries," he said. The Thai Chamber of Commerce last week urged action from the government over U.S. trade policy uncertainty and proposed a "war room" be set up to head off any threat of tariffs by the Trump administration. The United States was Thailand's largest export market in 2024, according to government figures, accounting for 18.3% of total shipments, or $54.96 billion. In Asia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Thailand are those most exposed to the possibility of increased U.S. tariffs due to their high export-to-GDP ratios with the United States, according to a Reuters analysis. Paetongtarn said she had assured the private sector the government had a strategy on the issue of U.S. trade. "We've had a team in place since January and definitely have a plan," she said before the meeting.
Reuters
05-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Thai business group keep 2025 GDP forecast at 2.4% to 2.9%
BANGKOK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is still expected to grow between 2.4% to 2.9% this year despite intensifying global trade wars and increased competition from imported goods, a leading joint business group said on Wednesday. Domestic demand remains weak while the strengthening of the baht poses a challenge to exports, a key driver of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said. The group said it was also maintaining its export growth forecast at 1.5% to 2.5% this year, even as U.S. tariffs on China raise concerns of more global trade disruption. Last year, exports increased 5.4% to a record $301 billion. Kriengkrai Theinnukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said shipments had been boosted by stockpiling before President Donald Trump took office. "It may not be real demand. We will wait and see how this will affect exports in the first quarter," he told a news conference. Kriengkrai said Thai exports could become more competitive following U.S. tariffs on other countries. Trump has imposed tariffs on China and signalled the 27-nation European Union would be his next target, but he has suspended plans to level 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days. The influx of Chinese goods into Thailand remains a problem and as many as 30 industries will be affected this year if no proper measures are taken, Kriengkrai said. "China has clearly stated that it must produce and find markets. We have to protect ourselves," he said. For 2024, the group estimated economic growth at 2.8%. Official growth data is due to be released on Feb. 17.
