Latest news with #InflationExpectationsSurveyofHouseholds
News18
07-08-2025
- Business
- News18
Indian households see easing price pressures: RBI Survey
New Delhi [India], August 7 (ANI): Indian households have perceived and expected a decline in inflation levels, according to the Reserve Bank of India's July 2025 round of its bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH).The survey, conducted between July 1-12 across 19 major cities, covering 5,197 valid responses, indicates a broad-based easing of inflationary concerns. The median perception of current inflation dropped by 50 basis points to 7.2 per cent in July from 7.7 per cent in May expectations for the next three months and one year ahead also fell by 60 and 50 basis points, respectively, to 8.3 per cent and 9.0 per the three-month horizon, 79.5 per cent of households expect prices to increase, down from 80.5 per cent in May. For the one-year horizon, the number stood at 88.1 per cent, compared to 89.2 per cent in the previous round of survey done in May the share of respondents expecting food prices to rise dropped in the new survey to 80 per cent from 82.8 per cent in May. City-wise variations were stark. For example, Bhopal recorded the highest one-year ahead inflation expectation at 11.2 per cent, while Ahmedabad households saw the lowest at 5.4 per cent. Delhi respondents pegged current inflation at 8.1 per cent and anticipated it to increase up to 9.0 per cent a year persons and older respondents continued to have the highest inflation perception and expectations, with the 60+ age group projecting inflation to rise to 9.6 per cent in one year. In contrast, daily workers reported the lowest median expectation at 8.1 per Central Bank however clarified that the survey provides directional insight into near term inflationary pressure, RBI does not necessarily endorse these views 'it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents' views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank" noted RBI. (ANI)
Business Standard
24-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Monetary policy is crucial to manage household inflation expectations, shows RBI study
The RBI released a study paper in its July bulletin to understand the Indian household inflation expectations. This study uses unit level data on 1-year ahead median inflation expectations from the Reserve Banks Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH), to understand their dynamics post pandemic, key determinants and effectiveness of monetary policy in anchoring these expectations, particularly under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime. Household inflation expectations are particularly important because households represent the largest and most diverse economic group, directly driving consumption. Unlike professional forecasters, households expectations are often shaped by personal experiences and are susceptible to fluctuations. Indian household inflation expectations, revealing that they remain elevated compared to those of professionals, even during periods of price stability. Demographic factors such as gender, age, and professional background play significant roles. Notably, men, older individuals (45 and above), self-employed and daily workers, who often operate on variable incomes, exhibit higher inflation expectations. In contrast, younger and salaried individuals show less disagreement and are more attuned to realized inflation dynamics, likely reflecting their exposure to financial and social network. Transition to the FIT regime, along with timely fiscal interventions such as export bans and lower import duties, and moderating inflation levels have contributed to decline in both the levels of expectations and disagreement across responses. However, supply shocks and global inflation shocks induced by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions have elevated the inflation expectations, particularly across headline, food and housing categories. High food inflation during periods of high inflation may keep the expectations elevated, even as headline matters more for inflation expectations. Nonetheless, most recently, as inflation has been showing signs of easing, expectations of households have also come down. Given the evidence of non-rationality and heterogeneity across different groups of households each reflecting their systematic biases the role of monetary policy becomes critical in managing inflation expectations. This, in turn, underscores the challenges of effective policy communication, making it essential to understand how these expectations are shaped and managed.
Time of India
07-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
RBI survey: Households optimistic about inflation; Less people expect price hikes
Indian households are beginning to feel that inflation is easing, as fewer people expect prices to rise in the months ahead, the Reserve Bank of India said in its latest survey. The central bank on Friday released the findings of its bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for May 2025, revealing a slight drop in perceived inflation. The median perception of current inflation fell to 7.7% in May, against the 7.8% recorded in March. Expectations for inflation over the next three months remained steady at 8.9%, while the one-year-ahead expectation declined by 20 basis points to 9.5%. The survey, conducted between 2 and 11 May across 19 major cities, gathered 6,079 valid responses. It showed that inflation expectations have softened across a broad range of product categories, including food, housing, household goods, and services. Notably, the proportion of households expecting prices to rise in the future has decreased compared to earlier rounds. Still, expectations of inflation remain high, especially for food, with 82.8% of respondents anticipating a price rise in the next three months. Housing at 78.3 % and non-food items at 75.3 per cent followed closely. On a one-year horizon, 89.2% of respondents said they expected prices to go up. While still high, this figure marked a slight moderation from previous levels, suggesting people are growing more optimistic. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Clearance: Handmade luxury bags now 70% off Handmakers Report Read Now Undo The report also revealed differences across age groups and regions. Retired individuals and those over 60 continued to report higher inflation perceptions than younger participants. Regionally, residents of Jammu, Kolkata, and Mumbai perceived the highest levels of inflation, while those in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad felt the least impact. Overall, the numbers point to a gradual shift in sentiment, with households appearing more confident about the price situation in the short and medium term. The apex bank clarified that the survey reflected individual expectations and consumption patterns which may not necessarily align with the official data or RBI's views. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Economic Times
07-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Households feel inflation is easing in short and medium term: RBI Survey
ANI Representational image Indian households' perception of current inflation in the country fell slightly, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). As per the RBI's Households' Inflation Expectations Survey, the median inflation perception declined by 10 basis points to 7.7 per cent in May, down from 7.8 per cent recorded in March 2025. The survey also highlighted that expectations for inflation over the next three months remained unchanged at 8.9 per cent, while the one-year-ahead expectation declined by 20 basis points to 9.5 per cent. This indicates that households feel price pressures are easing, both in the short and medium term. Notably, fewer people now expect prices and inflation to rise compared to the last survey Reserve Bank of India released the findings of its bi-monthly "Inflation Expectations Survey of Households" for May 2025, which reflects a softening in the public's view on inflation. The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11 across 19 major cities and received 6,079 valid survey data showed that the easing of inflationary expectations was visible across key product groups such as food, non-food items, household durables, housing, and services. In particular, around 55 per cent of households now believe food prices will increase more than the current rate. Among product categories, the expectation of a price rise in the next three months was highest for food products (82.8 per cent), followed by housing (78.3 per cent) and non-food items (75.3 per cent).Looking one year ahead, 89.2 per cent of respondents expect a general rise in prices, although this number has moderated from previous survey also pointed out demographic and regional differences. Retired persons and people above 60 years continued to perceive higher inflation compared to younger age groups. City-wise, people in Jammu, Kolkata, and Mumbai reported the highest inflation perception, while respondents from Bengaluru and Ahmedabad perceived inflation to be the results suggested a marginal improvement in inflation sentiment among households, indicating greater confidence in the price Reserve Bank clarified that this survey reflects individual expectations and consumption patterns and may not necessarily align with official inflation data or the RBI's views.
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Business Standard
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
RBI launches 3 surveys for inflation, consumer confidence, policy input
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday launched three key surveys, including inflation expectations, to gather useful inputs for monetary policy decisions. The RBI normally holds six bi-monthly monetary policy reviews in a financial year. The last meeting was held earlier this month, and the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for June 4-6. The May round of the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) aims at capturing subjective assessments on price movements and inflation, based on their individual consumption baskets, across 19 cities. The central bank said the Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS) seeks qualitative responses from households, regarding their sentiments on the general economic situation, employment scenario, price level, and households' income and spending. This study, too, will be carried out in 19 cities. The Rural Consumer Confidence Survey (RCCS) will collect current perceptions and one-year-ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending from the households residing in the rural and semi-urban areas across 31 states/ Union Territories. The Reserve Bank of India has been regularly conducting these surveys. The results of the surveys provide useful inputs for monetary policy, the RBI said.
