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Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
'India AI budget falls short of needs'
ETtech Stephen Ezell, vice-president of Global Innovation Policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) India will need to rethink data accessibility, and pump in more money to achieve its AI aspirations, Stephen Ezell, vice-president of Global Innovation Policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) think- tank told ET. Washington DC-based Ezell said that while AI adoption would cause 'churn, shift and change', it also holds the potential to create 2.3 million new jobs in India by 2030 and add about $1.2–1.5 trillion to its India has overcome the historic lack of a concerted national AI strategy and underfunding, through the India AI Mission, it may be too little, he said. 'But its $1.25 billion budget remains only a fraction of the amount that really needs to be invested to achieve the kind of Indian leadership in AI that will come from training AI systems on model data,' he said, while also acknowledging India's strong talent base as the second-largest source of top-level AI talent globally. Ezell believes India's continued restrictive data approach acts a major hindrance to its global AI competitiveness and stresses that data access is as important as human capital in building robust AI systems. 'India doesn't realise that data is an asset foundational to developing a competitive AI ecosystem, especially against China,' he said. Amid an onslaught of mass layoffs in the information technology sector that many fear is due to AI, Ezzell said AI's impact will be job-transformative and not job-destructive, provided countries adopt the right policies. 'Studies estimate artificial intelligence will impact at least 40% of jobs globally. However, the greater impact of AI will be on tasks performed by an individual, as opposed to that overall job,' Ezell insisted. Instead, AI may end up creating more jobs than now. 'Economists estimate that for every one job the internet has destroyed, it has created 1.2 jobs,' he optimism stands in sharp contrast to rising layoffs in India's tech industry. 'Skill mismatch' and a lack of 'deployment feasibility' have been cited by industry leader TCS as key reasons behind for sloughing off 12,000 employees over FY26. But according to market estimates, thousands of mid-level tech workers across the sector have been let go in recent quarters, often replaced by AI. Industry body Nasscom expects AI and automation-induced job cuts at IT firms over the next several months. 'Technology is value neutral. AI is the most radically transformative tech, at least in the past century, and the economic impact is going to be profound. It should add $20 trillion to the global economy by 2030,' he said. Shifting stance As a close witness to DC policymaking, Ezzell also drew attention to the stark difference between the previous Joe Biden presidential administration and the current Donald Trump-led White House when it comes to AI policy. The erstwhile Biden administration, he said, had taken a more conservative and cautious route that focused more on regulating hypothetical risks.'Policymakers tend to want to regulate against speculative harms, as opposed to trying to address genuine challenges,' he said. The Trump administration, on the other hand, focuses more aggressively on global AI leadership, resulting in pushing for the diffusion of AI technologies developed in the US. Ezzell credited this strategy for giving rise to the National AI Plan, which emphasises on developing a comprehensive 'AI stack' ranging from software, hardware, models, and data for global export. But for India, this shifting stance will be for nought if the US actively intends to gatekeep AI tech, and computing power. While the latest AI Policy calls for exporting the full US AI technology stack—hardware, models, software, applications, and standards—to allied nations willing to join America's AI alliance, it also stresses on denying foreign adversaries access to US compute power as a matter of both geostrategic competition and national security. 'On this, the focus is on countries that are foundationally techno-autocracies such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. India is not, and should not be included in this group,' Ezell said. Elevate your knowledge and leadership skills at a cost cheaper than your daily tea. As 50% US tariff looms, 6 key steps that can safeguard Indian economy As big fat Indian wedding slims to budget, Manyavar loses lustre Why are mid-cap stocks fizzling out? It's not just about Trump tariffs. The airport lounge war has begun — and DreamFolks is losing Stock Radar: UNO Minda eyeing fresh 52-week high in next few weeks; check target and stop loss for long positions Buy, Sell or Hold: Antique recommends buy on Siemens; Avendus upgrades SBI to Buy post June quarter results Stock picks of the week: 5 stocks with consistent score improvement and upside potential of up to 25% Weekly Top Picks: These stocks scored 10 on 10 on Stock Reports Plus
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
'India AI budget falls short of needs'
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads India will need to rethink data accessibility, and pump in more money to achieve its AI aspirations, Stephen Ezell, vice-president of Global Innovation Policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) think- tank told ET. Washington DC-based Ezell said that while AI adoption would cause 'churn, shift and change', it also holds the potential to create 2.3 million new jobs in India by 2030 and add about $1.2–1.5 trillion to its India has overcome the historic lack of a concerted national AI strategy and underfunding, through the India AI Mission, it may be too little, he said. 'But its $1.25 billion budget remains only a fraction of the amount that really needs to be invested to achieve the kind of Indian leadership in AI that will come from training AI systems on model data,' he said, while also acknowledging India's strong talent base as the second-largest source of top-level AI talent believes India's continued restrictive data approach acts a major hindrance to its global AI competitiveness and stresses that data access is as important as human capital in building robust AI systems. 'India doesn't realise that data is an asset foundational to developing a competitive AI ecosystem, especially against China,' he said. Amid an onslaught of mass layoffs in the information technology sector that many fear is due to AI, Ezzell said AI's impact will be job-transformative and not job-destructive, provided countries adopt the right policies.'Studies estimate artificial intelligence will impact at least 40% of jobs globally. However, the greater impact of AI will be on tasks performed by an individual, as opposed to that overall job,' Ezell insisted. Instead, AI may end up creating more jobs than now. 'Economists estimate that for every one job the internet has destroyed, it has created 1.2 jobs,' he optimism stands in sharp contrast to rising layoffs in India's tech industry. 'Skill mismatch' and a lack of 'deployment feasibility' have been cited by industry leader TCS as key reasons behind for sloughing off 12,000 employees over FY26. But according to market estimates, thousands of mid-level tech workers across the sector have been let go in recent quarters, often replaced by AI. Industry body Nasscom expects AI and automation-induced job cuts at IT firms over the next several months. 'Technology is value neutral. AI is the most radically transformative tech, at least in the past century, and the economic impact is going to be profound. It should add $20 trillion to the global economy by 2030,' he a close witness to DC policymaking, Ezzell also drew attention to the stark difference between the previous Joe Biden presidential administration and the current Donald Trump-led White House when it comes to AI policy. The erstwhile Biden administration, he said, had taken a more conservative and cautious route that focused more on regulating hypothetical risks.'Policymakers tend to want to regulate against speculative harms, as opposed to trying to address genuine challenges,' he said. The Trump administration, on the other hand, focuses more aggressively on global AI leadership, resulting in pushing for the diffusion of AI technologies developed in the US. Ezzell credited this strategy for giving rise to the National AI Plan, which emphasises on developing a comprehensive 'AI stack' ranging from software, hardware, models, and data for global export. But for India, this shifting stance will be for nought if the US actively intends to gatekeep AI tech, and computing power. While the latest AI Policy calls for exporting the full US AI technology stack—hardware, models, software, applications, and standards—to allied nations willing to join America's AI alliance, it also stresses on denying foreign adversaries access to US compute power as a matter of both geostrategic competition and national security.'On this, the focus is on countries that are foundationally techno-autocracies such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. India is not, and should not be included in this group,' Ezell said.
Fibre2Fashion
04-08-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Trump's order on low-value imports risks disrupting e-commerce: ITIF
US President Donald Trump's executive order (EO) ending the de minimis duty exemption for nearly all low-value global imports will slow cross-border e-commerce and raise costs for American consumers and businesses, warned the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The policy, aimed at curbing illicit drug trafficking and tariff evasion, eliminates duty-free treatment for most low-value shipments. ITIF policy analyst Eli Clemens said the change could overwhelm US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which is not operationally equipped to handle the influx of packages requiring formal processing. While noting the exemption has long been exploited by counterfeiters, traffickers, and foreign e-commerce platforms, ITIF cautioned that without swift CBP modernisation and AI-powered enforcement, the move risks merely shifting illicit activities rather than stopping them. ITIF has warned that Trump's executive order ending the de minimis duty exemption for low-value global imports will slow cross-border e-commerce and raise costs for Americans. Aimed at curbing illicit trade, it could overwhelm US Customs without rapid modernisation. ITIF cautioned that without AI-powered enforcement, the policy may merely shift rather than stop illicit activities. 'Like tariffs, this EO is part of a new phase in trade policy where the Trump administration is willing to impose costs on American consumers and businesses with changing and contradicting strategic goals,' added Clemens. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Business Insider
03-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Trump didn't just cut a deal with Vietnam — he was targeting China, too
On Wednesday, Trump announced a trade deal with Hanoi that would levy 20% on imports from Vietnam, down from the 46% rate Trump announced on "Liberation Day." In return, Vietnam has agreed to allow American goods to enter the country duty-free. What's also significant is that Trump announced a 40% tariff on goods shipped from another country via Vietnam to the US — a move that analysts say is aimed squarely at transshipments from China. "The 'China quotient' in US negotiations with other Asian economies is arguably evident in the deal with Vietnam," wrote Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's macro research head for Asia, excluding Japan, in a Thursday note. "The US's intent is quite obviously to not disincentivize Vietnam's role as a substitute for China at a lower 20% tariff," he added. Vietnam has benefited from global supply-chain shifts away from China since Trump's initial trade war during his first term. In response to those tariffs, many multinational companies, including Chinese firms, moved manufacturing operations to lower-cost hubs like Vietnam to sidestep US duties. Last year, the US ran a $123.5 billion trade deficit with Vietnam, making it America's third-largest trade gap after China and Mexico, according to the US Trade Representative's office. A model for future trade deals? The move follows a temporary truce between Washington and Beijing in May, when both sides agreed to a 90-day pause in their tariff war. The US slashed duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China lowered its tariffs on American imports from 125% to 10%. Still, the transshipment tariff on Vietnam underscores the Trump administration's effort to close the backdoor for Chinese exporters seeking loopholes into the US market. "A tariff framework that targets transshipment while preserving the potential benefits of efficient cross-border commerce is a smart move— and a model for future trade deals — if enforced transparently and paired with clear rules of origin," wrote Eli Clemens, a policy analyst at Washington-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a nonpartisan research institute, on Wednesday. The move also shows that Washington can stop Chinese supply chains from extending themselves into Southeast Asia. "Future trade negotiations should also include targeted transshipment deterrents that level the playing field for US manufacturers and retailers," Clemens wrote. Asia in a bind Washington's focus on transshipment enforcement puts pressure on other Asian economies, which may find themselves forced to choose sides. "It would be remiss to ignore this critical pillar of US trade deals with the rest of Asia, which is trained on undermining China's economic reach and influence," wrote Varathan. The deal may also reinforce Beijing's view that US trade negotiations lacks "good faith." It could prompt retaliation — not just against the US, but also against Asian economies seen as siding with Washington. "Other Asian economies will be particularly vulnerable to a two-sided geoeconomic squeeze given that their reliance on both China and US are significant," Varathan added. Despite reservations about the deal, it still excited investors. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite soared to record highs on Wednesday, and US stock futures are extending gains early on Thursday. Vietnam's widely followed VN-Index also rose to its highest level since April 2022.
New York Post
30-05-2025
- Business
- New York Post
Don't fear the AI reaper — jobs panic is way off base
ChatGPT is coming for your job. That's the fear about the rapid advances in artificial intelligence. In a headline the other day, Axios warned of a 'white-collar bloodbath.' Advertisement The CEO of the artificial intelligence firm Anthropic told the publication that AI could destroy half of all entry-level white-collar jobs in the next one to five years and drive the unemployment rate up to 10% or 20% — or roughly Great Depression levels. This sounds dire, but we've been here before. In the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes thought that labor-saving devices were 'outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labor.' Advertisement Analysts thought the same thing in the 1960s, when President John F. Kennedy warned 'the automation problem is as important as any we face' — and in our era, too. If a prediction has been consistently wrong, it doesn't necessarily mean that it will forever be wrong. Still, we shouldn't have much confidence in the same alarmism, repeated for the same reasons. If technological advance was really a net killer of jobs, the labor market should have been in decline since the invention of the wheel. Advertisement Instead, we live in a time of technological marvels, and the unemployment rate is 4.2%. Rob Atkinson of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation points out that the average unemployment rate in the United States hasn't changed much over the last century, despite productivity — the ability to produce more with the same inputs — increasing by almost 10 times. Technology increases productivity, driving down costs and making it possible to invest and spend on other things, creating new jobs that replace the old. This is the process of a society becoming wealthier, and it's why nations that innovate are better off than those that don't. Advertisement The rise of personal computers collapsed the demand for typists and word processors. These positions were often held by women. Did this decimate the economic prospects of women in America? No — they got different, and frequently better, jobs. Spreadsheets drastically reduced the demand for bookkeepers and accounting clerks. Did this end the profession of accounting? No — there was an increase in more sophisticated accounting roles. Advertisement The job market has never been stuck in amber. The MIT economist David Autor co-authored a study that found the majority of current jobs are in occupational categories that arose since 1940. It's true that artificial intelligence is projected to affect white-collar jobs — computer programming, consulting, law and the like — more than prior waves of technological change. But these kind of jobs shouldn't be immune from the effects of automation any more than factory work has been. Advertisement AI will end up augmenting many jobs — helping workers become more efficient — and there will be a limit to how much it can encroach on human work. It's hard to imagine, say, Meta ever giving over its legal representation in an antitrust case to artificial intelligence. Lawyers handling such a case will, however, rely on AI for more and more support, diminishing the need for junior lawyers. This will be a significant disruption for the legal profession, yet legal services will also become cheaper and more widely available, in a benefit to everyone else. Advertisement There's no doubt that the changes wrought by technology can be painful, and it's possible that artificial intelligence eventually gets so good at so many tasks that people have no ready recourse to new, better jobs, as has always happened in the past. The potential upside, though, is vast. After strong productivity growth for about a decade beginning in the mid-1990s, we shifted into a lower gear in the mid-2000s. Advertisement It will be a boon if artificial intelligence puts us on a better trajectory. An era of high productivity growth will, among other things, make it easier to deal with the budget deficit and the fiscal strain of retiring Baby Boomers. Like anything else, AI will have its downsides, but it's not an inherent threat — any more than computers or the internet were. Twitter: @RichLowry
