Latest news with #InstituteforEnergyEconomicsandFinancialAnalysis
Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Pakistan's lithium battery imports soar, projected to hit 8.75 GWh by 2030: report
Driven by high electricity costs and falling solar prices, the imports of battery storage systems (BESS) have accelerated at breakneck speeds in Pakistan and are projected to rise to 8.75 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030, according to US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). 'Pakistan imported an estimated 1.25 GWh of lithium-ion battery packs in 2024 and another 400 megawatt-hours (MWh) in the first two months of 2025, a trend that is likely to continue,' IEEFA stated in its latest report titled 'Battery storage and the future of Pakistan's electricity grid'. This could increase to 8.75 GWh, or 26% of the projected peak demand in 2030, 'if business as usual persists,' it said. 'Such a shift could lead to stranded peak generation assets and higher financial losses for the grid,' IEFFA warned. The report found Pakistan's growing adoption of battery storage is supported by lithium-ion battery imports from China. China exports more solar panels to Pakistan than to many G20 nations in 5 years: report 'While solar PV module prices in Pakistan have consistently declined, emulating improving economics in China, the same is not true for BESS because of high taxes and customs duties. The average price of lithium-ion battery packs in Pakistan ranges between $230/kWh and $360/kWh.' However, despite high taxes, solar-battery combinations seem attractive for consumers, with installations continuously increasing, IEEFA said. 'Solar with BESS has a payback period of 3-5 years in Pakistan's residential sector despite a 48% cost increase from surcharges and duties on lithium-ion batteries. The payback period ranges between 4-6 years for the commercial and industrial sectors, depending on battery size or usage requirements,' it found. The report noted that Pakistan's high penetration of rooftop solar generation can provide a strong foundation for large-scale battery storage adoption in a distributed manner. 'If sustained through further fiscal support and regulatory incentives, this could mean minimal investment requirements for new generation assets for the government at a central level,' it added From crisis to clean energy: Pakistan emerges as top solar market in 2024 However, a lack of grid modernisation and strong regulatory support remain key barriers that should be addressed to ensure an efficient energy transition in Pakistan, the report noted. 'Unmanaged BESS growth could destabilise Pakistan's national grid by reducing demand and raising capacity payments. 'Timely investments in grid modernisation, smart metering, and regulatory updates can enable decentralised solar plus BESS configurations, avoiding expensive generation expansion and supporting strategic power planning.'
Time of India
28-05-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
EV two-wheeler sales soared 34x in 4 years, but market share stuck at 4%: Study
Electric vehicle (EV) sales in India have grown rapidly across segments in the last decade, but adoption rates remain modest despite significant fiscal support, a new study by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has found. The report, From Incentives to Adoption, presents a 10-year review (2014–2023) of government subsidies and policy interventions under FAME-I, FAME-II, Production Linked Incentives (PLI), and state schemes, and assesses their effectiveness across five EV segments. In the electric two-wheeler (E2W) segment, sales jumped from 19,333 units in FY2019 to over 6.5 lakh units in FY2023. However, the adoption rate – the share of electric vehicles in overall two-wheeler sales – was only 4% by the end of 2023. 'FAME-II's higher subsidy intensity (28.65%) compared to FAME-I (14.32%) boosted absolute E2W sales by up to 9 times, but had limited impact on the overall market composition,' the report states. According to Charith Konda, Energy Specialist at IEEFA and one of the co-authors, 'The government should continue offering purchase subsidies to sustain momentum but clearly communicate a phased-down trajectory for the longer term.' In the electric three-wheeler passenger (E3WP) segment, early policy support under FAME-I drove a 10x market multiplier effect. Around 27,000 additional vehicles were directly attributed to subsidies under FAME-I, with total sales reaching 2.67 lakh units by March 2019. The segment, however, matured during the FAME-II period and showed limited incremental impact from later subsidies. The electric three-wheeler cargo (E3WC) category saw a market share rise from 0.03% in 2015 to over 31% by 2023. The study found this growth was largely driven by operating cost advantages rather than central subsidies. A 1% reduction in operating cost led to a 0.563% increase in sales, highlighting the role of business economics in commercial segments. In the electric four-wheeler commercial (E4WC) category, sales improved after FAME-II and PLI schemes were implemented. A one-standard-deviation increase in subsidy intensity led to a 5% rise in sales. However, the adoption rate was still less than 1%. States that implemented incentives saw 211% higher sales growth than those that did not. For electric four-wheelers in the private segment (E4WP), sales grew due to new model launches and consumer demand, but adoption rates remained below 2%. The report highlights the need for continuing support in this segment. The report found that both FAME-I and FAME-II failed to make a statistically significant impact on electric bus (e-bus) adoption. Only 4,766 units were subsidised against a target of 7,262, and the sector continues to face structural barriers such as limited financing access and high upfront costs. 'Coordinated central and state action, pairing targeted purchase incentives, infrastructure rollout, and manufacturing scale-up can help electric cars compete effectively with their counterparts in India's commercial vehicle market,' said Saurabh Trivedi, Sustainable Finance Specialist at IEEFA. The study recommends continued fiscal support, investment in public charging infrastructure, interest rate subvention for buses, and targeted financing support for smaller commercial operators. 'As India transitions from FAME schemes to PM E-DRIVE and other similar initiatives, policymakers must recognise that each EV segment requires tailored intervention,' Konda added. The report draws on panel data of 21,526 observations over 10 years, offering a first-of-its-kind empirical assessment of India's EV subsidy performance using econometric techniques such as difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods.
Time of India
28-05-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
EV two-wheeler sales soared 34x in 4 years, but market share stuck at 4%: Study
New Delhi: Electric vehicle (EV) sales in India have grown rapidly across segments in the last decade, but adoption rates remain modest despite significant fiscal support, a new study by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has found. The report, From Incentives to Adoption, presents a 10-year review (2014–2023) of government subsidies and policy interventions under FAME-I, FAME-II, Production Linked Incentives (PLI), and state schemes, and assesses their effectiveness across five EV segments. In the electric two-wheeler (E2W) segment, sales jumped from 19,333 units in FY2019 to over 6.5 lakh units in FY2023. However, the adoption rate – the share of electric vehicles in overall two-wheeler sales – was only 4% by the end of 2023. 'FAME-II's higher subsidy intensity (28.65%) compared to FAME-I (14.32%) boosted absolute E2W sales by up to 9 times, but had limited impact on the overall market composition,' the report states. According to Charith Konda, Energy Specialist at IEEFA and one of the co-authors, 'The government should continue offering purchase subsidies to sustain momentum but clearly communicate a phased-down trajectory for the longer term.' In the electric three-wheeler passenger (E3WP) segment, early policy support under FAME-I drove a 10x market multiplier effect. Around 27,000 additional vehicles were directly attributed to subsidies under FAME-I, with total sales reaching 2.67 lakh units by March 2019. The segment, however, matured during the FAME-II period and showed limited incremental impact from later subsidies. The electric three-wheeler cargo (E3WC) category saw a market share rise from 0.03% in 2015 to over 31% by 2023. The study found this growth was largely driven by operating cost advantages rather than central subsidies. A 1% reduction in operating cost led to a 0.563% increase in sales, highlighting the role of business economics in commercial segments. In the electric four-wheeler commercial (E4WC) category, sales improved after FAME-II and PLI schemes were implemented. A one-standard-deviation increase in subsidy intensity led to a 5% rise in sales. However, the adoption rate was still less than 1%. States that implemented incentives saw 211% higher sales growth than those that did not. For electric four-wheelers in the private segment (E4WP), sales grew due to new model launches and consumer demand, but adoption rates remained below 2%. The report highlights the need for continuing support in this segment. The report found that both FAME-I and FAME-II failed to make a statistically significant impact on electric bus (e-bus) adoption. Only 4,766 units were subsidised against a target of 7,262, and the sector continues to face structural barriers such as limited financing access and high upfront costs. 'Coordinated central and state action, pairing targeted purchase incentives, infrastructure rollout, and manufacturing scale-up can help electric cars compete effectively with their counterparts in India's commercial vehicle market,' said Saurabh Trivedi, Sustainable Finance Specialist at IEEFA. The study recommends continued fiscal support, investment in public charging infrastructure, interest rate subvention for buses, and targeted financing support for smaller commercial operators. 'As India transitions from FAME schemes to PM E-DRIVE and other similar initiatives, policymakers must recognise that each EV segment requires tailored intervention,' Konda added. The report draws on panel data of 21,526 observations over 10 years, offering a first-of-its-kind empirical assessment of India's EV subsidy performance using econometric techniques such as difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods.
AU Financial Review
20-05-2025
- Business
- AU Financial Review
Japan ramps up regional reselling of Australian gas
Tokyo | Japan is reselling to other Asian countries more imported liquified natural gas than was previously known, new data reveals, sharpening scrutiny over the scale of offshore profits made from Australian energy exports, as domestic consumers face higher power prices. In 2024, Japanese companies sold-on between 627 and 812 petajoules of LNG originally sourced from Australia – up to 1.6 times the entire annual gas consumption of eastern Australia, according to an analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
The Advertiser
19-05-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Japanese firms reportedly cash in on-selling Aussie gas
Japanese energy firms could be making upwards of $1 billion on-selling Australian liquefied natural gas to other countries at a time when domestic shortfalls loom. Australia is the top supplier to Japan's third-party trade business, a new analysis suggests, making up roughly 40 per cent of cargos with an estimated 600-800 petajoules onsold via the intermediary. The findings from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis follow repeat warnings of domestic gas shortages as well as several interventions into Australian energy policy debate by Japanese figures. In 2023, Japanese ambassador to Australia, Yamagami Shingo, warned the "neon lights of Tokyo" could go out if Australia stopped producing energy resources, including gas. IEEFA Australia chief executive Amandine Denis-Ryan said it was "quite extraordinary" for Australia to be running out of gas for domestic use - and considering importing it - while Japan resells "enormous volumes of our gas overseas for a profit". The energy analysts drew on shiptracking and contracts data to understand how much Australian LNG was being resold via Japan. The upwards of 600PJ estimated annually surpasses the 511 PJ used by eastern Australian markets last year. Resales from both eastern and western Australia also eclipsed projected annual gas shortfalls in those regions. In addition, emerging nations were not the top customers of repackaged Australian LNG. Two-thirds of on-sold Australian product was going to Taiwan and South Korea. "This should be concerning for Australian producers, for whom these are premium markets with high purchasing power and low credit risk," Ms Denis-Ryan said. In her view, the findings supported the case for putting aside more gas for local use through domestic reservation. "Energy exports are currently hurting Australian consumers and the Australian economy," she told AAP. Japanese energy firms could be making upwards of $1 billion on-selling Australian liquefied natural gas to other countries at a time when domestic shortfalls loom. Australia is the top supplier to Japan's third-party trade business, a new analysis suggests, making up roughly 40 per cent of cargos with an estimated 600-800 petajoules onsold via the intermediary. The findings from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis follow repeat warnings of domestic gas shortages as well as several interventions into Australian energy policy debate by Japanese figures. In 2023, Japanese ambassador to Australia, Yamagami Shingo, warned the "neon lights of Tokyo" could go out if Australia stopped producing energy resources, including gas. IEEFA Australia chief executive Amandine Denis-Ryan said it was "quite extraordinary" for Australia to be running out of gas for domestic use - and considering importing it - while Japan resells "enormous volumes of our gas overseas for a profit". The energy analysts drew on shiptracking and contracts data to understand how much Australian LNG was being resold via Japan. The upwards of 600PJ estimated annually surpasses the 511 PJ used by eastern Australian markets last year. Resales from both eastern and western Australia also eclipsed projected annual gas shortfalls in those regions. In addition, emerging nations were not the top customers of repackaged Australian LNG. Two-thirds of on-sold Australian product was going to Taiwan and South Korea. "This should be concerning for Australian producers, for whom these are premium markets with high purchasing power and low credit risk," Ms Denis-Ryan said. In her view, the findings supported the case for putting aside more gas for local use through domestic reservation. "Energy exports are currently hurting Australian consumers and the Australian economy," she told AAP. Japanese energy firms could be making upwards of $1 billion on-selling Australian liquefied natural gas to other countries at a time when domestic shortfalls loom. Australia is the top supplier to Japan's third-party trade business, a new analysis suggests, making up roughly 40 per cent of cargos with an estimated 600-800 petajoules onsold via the intermediary. The findings from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis follow repeat warnings of domestic gas shortages as well as several interventions into Australian energy policy debate by Japanese figures. In 2023, Japanese ambassador to Australia, Yamagami Shingo, warned the "neon lights of Tokyo" could go out if Australia stopped producing energy resources, including gas. IEEFA Australia chief executive Amandine Denis-Ryan said it was "quite extraordinary" for Australia to be running out of gas for domestic use - and considering importing it - while Japan resells "enormous volumes of our gas overseas for a profit". The energy analysts drew on shiptracking and contracts data to understand how much Australian LNG was being resold via Japan. The upwards of 600PJ estimated annually surpasses the 511 PJ used by eastern Australian markets last year. Resales from both eastern and western Australia also eclipsed projected annual gas shortfalls in those regions. In addition, emerging nations were not the top customers of repackaged Australian LNG. Two-thirds of on-sold Australian product was going to Taiwan and South Korea. "This should be concerning for Australian producers, for whom these are premium markets with high purchasing power and low credit risk," Ms Denis-Ryan said. In her view, the findings supported the case for putting aside more gas for local use through domestic reservation. "Energy exports are currently hurting Australian consumers and the Australian economy," she told AAP. Japanese energy firms could be making upwards of $1 billion on-selling Australian liquefied natural gas to other countries at a time when domestic shortfalls loom. Australia is the top supplier to Japan's third-party trade business, a new analysis suggests, making up roughly 40 per cent of cargos with an estimated 600-800 petajoules onsold via the intermediary. The findings from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis follow repeat warnings of domestic gas shortages as well as several interventions into Australian energy policy debate by Japanese figures. In 2023, Japanese ambassador to Australia, Yamagami Shingo, warned the "neon lights of Tokyo" could go out if Australia stopped producing energy resources, including gas. IEEFA Australia chief executive Amandine Denis-Ryan said it was "quite extraordinary" for Australia to be running out of gas for domestic use - and considering importing it - while Japan resells "enormous volumes of our gas overseas for a profit". The energy analysts drew on shiptracking and contracts data to understand how much Australian LNG was being resold via Japan. The upwards of 600PJ estimated annually surpasses the 511 PJ used by eastern Australian markets last year. Resales from both eastern and western Australia also eclipsed projected annual gas shortfalls in those regions. In addition, emerging nations were not the top customers of repackaged Australian LNG. Two-thirds of on-sold Australian product was going to Taiwan and South Korea. "This should be concerning for Australian producers, for whom these are premium markets with high purchasing power and low credit risk," Ms Denis-Ryan said. In her view, the findings supported the case for putting aside more gas for local use through domestic reservation. "Energy exports are currently hurting Australian consumers and the Australian economy," she told AAP.
