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Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
South Asia's Rivals Are Weaponizing Water for Geopolitical Gain
India's recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, alongside China's growing dominance over regional water resources and infrastructure, has heightened tensions in South Asia, one of the world's most water-stressed regions. Those geopolitical strains are exacerbated by the effects of climate change, which have altered weather patterns in an area that is home to nearly a quarter of the world's population. Most of those inhabitants depend heavily on rivers fed by the mountains of the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan system. Those ranges are collectively known as the world's 'Third Pole' for their vast frozen reserves of glaciers, which are second only to the Arctic and Antarctic. But their glaciers are vanishing, with downstream implications for the rivers they feed. A report released last month by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD, showed that the region recorded its lowest snow persistence—the duration that snow remains on the ground—in 23 years, threatening water availability in major arteries like the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Earlier, ICIMOD also warned that up to 80 percent of the region's glaciers could disappear by the start of the next century, affecting the long-term stability of South Asia's water systems. The findings underscore the rising climate stress on a region already facing rapid glacial retreat, erratic weather patterns and recurrent floods. South Asia is a global climate hot spot, and the region's children may be the ones who will have to pay the price. Astaggering 347 million children under the age of 18 are already exposed to high or extremely high water scarcity in South Asia, the highest number among all regions in the world, according to a UNICEF report. To get more in-depth news and expert analysis on global affairs from WPR, sign up for our free Daily Review newsletter. As climate change and geopolitical tensions converge, experts warn that the region's fragile hydro-politics could be entering a dangerous new era. According to a recently published study, a total of 1,158 water conflicts, including domestic and international, occurred in transboundary river basins in Asia from 1948 to 2022. Among these, the Jordan and Tigris-Euphrates/Shatt Al-Arab River basins in West Asia had the highest number of conflicts, followed by South Asia's Indus River basin. The study, which looks at water resources as a trigger for and casualty of conflict, also noted a significant upward trend across the period studied, with a positive correlation between water stress and conflict. And as the recent tensions between India and Pakistan as well as broader trends in China's hydro-politics show, water is also becoming increasingly weaponized in the context of geopolitical rivalry. On April 22, a horrific terrorist attack in Pahalgam in India-controlled Kashmir killed 26 civilians, most of them male Hindu tourists. In addition to launching military strikes in response, the Indian government announced that it will be putting the Indus Waters Treaty, or IWT, in 'abeyance,' accusing Pakistan of failing to prevent cross-border terrorist attacks originating from its territory. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that 'India's water must serve India first,' while Islamabad warned that any move to restrict water flow would be treated as 'an act of war.' Tensions de-escalated after the nuclear-armed neighbors and bitter rivals reached a mutual understanding on May 10 to halt all military actions. Yet, the IWT—one of the rare examples of cooperation between India and Pakistan, even during past periods of open hostility and war—remains suspended. In the short term, this will not drastically affect Pakistan's water supply. India lacks sufficient storage capacity on the western Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers to cut off the flow of their waters immediately. However, New Delhi is reportedly actively exploring infrastructure projects that could reduce downstream flows over time. Such projects could have profound consequences. Pakistan depends on the Indus River system for nearly 80 percent of its agriculture. It also relies on upstream data provided by India to manage floods, forecast droughts and plan irrigation cycles. Without timely information on river flows and dam releases, Pakistan's ability to generate hydropower, ensure drinking water supplies and maintain food security could be severely compromised. The suspension of the IWT has also raised alarm bells about the status of other water-sharing agreements in South Asia. India has multiple bilateral treaties, including the Mahakali Treaty and Kosi River accord with Nepal, and the Teesta water-sharing deal with Bangladesh. While these arrangements differ in scope and legal architecture, many are politically sensitive and depend on goodwill rather than enforceable international norms. Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst, told World Politics Review that other neighboring states will likely see the suspension of the IWT through the prism of India's unique relationship with Pakistan. Still, he pointed to the precedent this could set as a source of at least some fear. 'If India is willing to back out of a World Bank-mediated treaty, something that's viewed as such a big success story,' he added, 'what could it then do when it comes to other treaties that are not seen through such a prestigious, high-stakes lens?' That fear looms especially large in Bangladesh, where tensions with India over water-sharing have been brewing for years. The Ganga Water Treaty, signed in 1996, is due for renewal in 2026. But relations between the two neighbors have soured since the ouster of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India in 2024 amid popular protests over her increasingly authoritarian rule. Water tensions are also rising in drought-prone Afghanistan, where the Taliban-led government has revived dam and canal construction projects on key rivers like the Helmand, Amu Darya, Harirud, Kabul and Kunar. These initiatives have drawn sharp criticism from downstream neighbors like Iran, Pakistan and Turkmenistan, which have accused Kabul of using water as a bargaining chip in other negotiations over energy, trade and security. With Afghanistan's water insecurity growing and diplomatic engagement with the Taliban regime still limited—even as climate change disrupts water resources in South and Central Asia—the risk of water disputes escalating into broader confrontations remains high, as was already seen in the 2023 border clashes between Afghanistan and Iran. Meanwhile, a far more powerful upstream player continues to shape South Asia's hydro-politics: China. Beijing has refused to join any regional water-sharing frameworks, while investing heavily in dam-building, hydropower and infrastructure projects across the region. As such, it has positioned itself as a key actor in the management of the Teesta River, which flows from India into Bangladesh and remains a source of vexation between New Delhi and Dhaka. China is also involved in several hydroelectric projects in Nepal, despite Indian opposition, as it jostles for influence in the region. Beijing, which enjoys longstanding military and economic ties with Islamabad, has also ramped up the construction of its 'flagship' Mohmand Dam in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of northwestern Pakistan, according to a report by SCMP. Though India is upstream from Pakistan on the Indus River, the river originates in Tibet, under Chinese control, sparking concerns of China using water as a geopolitical tool, something it has done in the past. For instance, after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, China blocked the Galwan River, an Indus tributary, causing water shortages in parts of India. Beijing's most ambitious project, however, lies on the Yarlung Zangbo, known downstream in India as the Brahmaputra River. Late last year, Beijing announced plans to construct the world's largest hydroelectric dam on the river. Once operational, the dam will give China unprecedented control over water flows into northeast India and Bangladesh, triggering fears about flash floods, droughts and even strategic manipulation of river flows in times of tension. In response, India has revived its own plans to construct a mega-dam on the Siang River, a major Brahmaputra tributary in Arunachal Pradesh that also feeds the Yarlung Zangbo. While framed as a defensive measure to counteract Chinese infrastructure, the race to dam Himalayan rivers carries enormous ecological risks. The region is prone to devastating earthquakes and landslides, and major dam failures could threaten millions of lives. As the effects of climate change intensify and political tensions deepen, the failure to strengthen regional institutions and modernize treaties could push already fragile arrangements past their breaking point. Water has long been a shared lifeline in South Asia. But unless it is protected, it may also become a fuse leading to conflict. Bansari Kamdar is an India-based journalist and researcher. Prior to this, she was the Europe, Middle East and Africa editor at Reuters, and she has also written for The Boston Globe, The Diplomat and Huffington Post, among other outlets. The post South Asia's Rivals Are Weaponizing Water for Geopolitical Gain appeared first on World Politics Review.
NDTV
7 days ago
- Science
- NDTV
Extreme Glaciers Could Lose Most Of Their Ice If Global Warming Continues: Study
Kathmandu: More than twice as much global glacier mass will remain if countries restrict temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the warming level of 2.7 degrees Celsius resulting from the current policies, says a new study released. Glaciers are even more sensitive to global warming than previously estimated, and, if the world warms to 2.7 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial levels, only 24 per cent of the present-day glacier mass will remain in contrast to preserving 54 per cent by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the study published in 'Science' suggests. "These figures, however, are global, skewed mostly by the very large glaciers around Antarctica and Greenland. The glacier regions most important to human communities are even more sensitive, with several losing nearly all glacier ice already at 2 degrees Celsius," a press release from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) here says, quoting the study. These results come amid growing concern regarding the impacts of glacier and snowpack loss by world leaders as the first global UN conference focused on glaciers opens in Dushanbe, Tajikistan on Friday, with the participation of officials from over 50 countries. Glaciers are a perennial source of water and are very sensitive to the changing climate. Scientists define mass balance as the difference between snow accumulated in winter and the loss of snow and ice in summer. Knowing or calculating mass balance is critical as it is a direct indicator of total water availability for any given glacier. The Hindu Kush Himalaya-where glaciers feed river basins supporting 2 billion people across eight countries, including India and Nepal-shows only 25 per cent of 2020 ice levels remaining at 2 degrees Celsius, warns the study. "Staying close to 1.5 degrees Celsius on the other hand preserves at least some glacier ice in all regions, even Scandinavia, with 20-30 per cent remaining in the four most sensitive regions; and 40-45 per cent in the Himalayas and Caucasus," pointed out the study. The study stresses the growing urgency of the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature goal and rapid de-carbonisation to achieve it. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, more than 180 countries agreed to cut down on emissions to restrict temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The study also mentions glaciers of the European Alps, the Rockies of the Western US and Canada, and Iceland, with only 10-15 per cent of their 2020 ice levels remaining at 2 degrees Celsius sustained warming. "Most hard-hit will be Scandinavia, with no glacier ice remaining at all at 2 degrees Celsius," says the study. To get these results, a team of 21 scientists from 10 countries used eight glacier models to calculate the potential ice loss of more than 2,00,000 glaciers worldwide, under a wide range of global temperature scenarios, according to the study. "In all scenarios, the glaciers lose mass rapidly over decades and then continue to melt at a slower pace for centuries, even without further warming," the study points out. "This means they will feel the impact of today's heat for a long time before settling into a new balance as they retreat to higher altitudes." "Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters," remarked co-lead author Dr Harry Zekollari from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel. "The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved." "Glaciers are good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see with our own eyes how climate is changing... but the situation for glaciers is actually far worse than visible in the mountains today," warns co-lead author Dr Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck. According to a five-year forecast released Wednesday, there is an 80 per cent chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years. "And it's even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago," the forecast by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UK Meteorological Office says. Earlier in the month, speaking at a high-level dialogue on mountains and glaciers-named the Sagarmatha Dialogues to honour Mt Everest or Sagarmatha in Nepali-Nepal's Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli said: "Mountains may seem far away. But their breath keeps half the world alive." "From the Arctic to the Andes, from the Alps to the Himalayas - they are the Earth's water towers... and they are in danger." (Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
Hindustan Times
12-05-2025
- Hindustan Times
Glaciologists, local communities mourn loss of Nepal's Yala glacier
New Delhi: Glaciologists and local communities mourned the loss of Nepal's Yala glacier, believed to be the first Nepalese glacier to be declared 'dead'. Locals and glaciologists from four countries — Nepal, India, China and Bhutan — in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) gathered to mark the accelerating disappearance of Nepal's Yala Glacier in Langtang, Nepal on Monday according to a statement by Kathmandu based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). Yala is the first glacier in Asia and the third glacier worldwide to carry a plaque with words by author, Andri Snaer Magnason in its memory. Plaques bearing his message also sit at the site of the world's first glacier funeral, which took place in Magnason's native Iceland in 2019, for OK Glacier, and at the site of the funeral for Ayoloco glacier in Mexico in 2021. Funerals have also been held for the Swiss Pizol glacier in 2019, Clark glacier in Oregon in 2020, and Basodino glacier in Switzerland in 2021. In 2021, ICIMOD, with the United Nations, marked the disappearance of Lemthang Glacier, in Bhutan, which was wiped out by a glacial lake outburst flood in 2017. The stones left at the base of the Yala glacier carry messages by two authors, Manjushree Thapa and Andri Snaer Magnason, in English, Nepali and locally spoken Tibetan. Magnason's inscription reads: 'A message to the future: Yala glacier is one of 54,000 glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas, most of which are expected to vanish this century due to global warming. This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it. May 2025 426ppm CO2 [parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere].' Thapa's inscription reads: 'Yala, where the gods dream high in the mountains, where the cold is divine. Dream of life in rock, sediment, and snow, in the pulverising of ice and earth, in meltwater pools the colour of sky. Dream. Dream of a glacier and the civilisations downstream. Entire ecosystems: our own sustenance. The cosmos. And all that we know and all that we love.' Yala has shrunk by 66% and retreated 784m since it was first measured in the 1970s. Over 50 people, including Buddhist monks and members of local community, and glacier experts from Bhutan, China, India, and Nepal completed the arduous high-altitude trek to attend the 'poignant' tribute on May 12, according to ICIMOD. The prayer meet featured a Buddhist ceremony, speeches, and the unveiling of the two granite memorial plaques which will sit at the foot of where the glacier stands. Yala is notable not just for its rapid retreat and for the central role it has played in advancing cryosphere research in a region that is known for lacking research capacity. Yala is one of just seven glaciers in the entire 3,500km-long arc of the Hindu Kush Himalayas to have been monitored annually for a decade or more and it is one of 38 glaciers with in-situ measurements, providing crucial data on the speed and extent of losses. 'Earth's mountains have lost close to nine trillion tonnes of ice since records began in 1975 — the equivalent of a 2.72-metre thick block of ice the size of India. On current melt rates, many glaciers worldwide will not survive the 21st century,' ICIMOD said. 'I've trekked the mountains of the Himalayas for decades. The pace and scale of the deglaciation and loss of snowpack happening now, and which I've seen with my own eyes, is truly breathtaking. While this thawing is currently upping the water available for Asia's major economies and huge urban centres, we know this water is set to decline from mid-century — just 25 years from now. This has major implications for this region,' said Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary and special envoy for and chief negotiator on climate change for India who is presently in Nepal. 'Tragically, the issues that divide us today, and which are rightly commanding so much global attention right now, are set to be dwarfed by the kinds of disasters we'll be facing if we don't recognise our interconnectedness with the ecological systems that support us, and act together, for our common future, now,' he added. HT reported on April 21 that snow persistence in the Ganga basin this year has been 24.1% below normal — the lowest in the past 23 years, vis-a-vis 30.2% above normal (the highest) in 2015 — which could lead to reduced flows in early summer, as per ICIMOD. Snow persistence over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region has plummeted to a 23-year record low, registering a staggering 23.6% fall from the long-term average. This unprecedented level of reduced snow cover, which measures the fraction of time snow remains on the ground after snowfall, underscores a significant and growing threat to water security of nearly 2 billion people who are dependent on the HKH's river systems, ICIMOD said, adding that the alarming statistic is compounded by the fact that 2025 marks the third consecutive year of below-normal seasonal snow across the region. On March 21, World Meteorological Organisation said the period between 2022 and 2024 witnessed the largest three-year loss of glacier mass on record. 'This is an important glacier because it has been used as a training site and over 100 glaciologists are trained on this glacier. In terms of its importance for water, it is a small glacier so not that significant for water downstream. However, as it is melting quite rapidly. So, the field data is highlighted with unprecedented details that how climate change is affecting glaciers,' said Sher Muhammad, remote sensing Specialist at ICIMOD.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Nepal holds tribute for disappearing glacier
Dozens trekked to Nepal's Yala glacier for a ceremony Monday to mark its rapid disappearance due to climate change and put a spotlight on global glacial retreat. The Yala glacier, located between 5,170 and 5,750 metres above sea level, is in the Langtang Valley in northern Nepal. Since 1974, the glacier has shrunk in area by 66 percent and retreated 784 meters, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development(ICIMOD). Scientists warn it may eventually disappear by the 2040s if the warming trend continues, and might be among the first in Nepal to join the growing numbers of glaciers declared "dead" worldwide. "In the 40 years I have studies this glacier, I have seen it halve with my own eyes. We worry that the next generation might not be able to see it," Sharad Prasad Joshi, a cryosphere specialist at ICIMOD, told AFP. Prayer flags fluttered Monday as Buddhist monks performed a ceremony for Yala, with the Himalayas towering behind them. Two granite plaques were unveiled engraved with memorial messages in Nepali, English and Tibetan. "This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it," part of the message in one of the plaques read. The words were by Icelandic writer Andri Snaer Magnason, whose message is also at the site of the world's first glacier funeral in Iceland. Glacier funerals have also been held in Mexico, the United States and Switzerland. The ceremony comes as the world marked near-record high global temperatures in April, according to the EU's climate monitor. In its latest bulletin, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said that April was the second-hottest in its dataset, which draws on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations. All but one of the last 22 months exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the warming limit enshrined in the Paris agreement, beyond which major and lasting climate and environmental changes become more likely. -'Time to act'- Yala is one of seven glaciers in the 3,500 kilometre-long arc of the Hindu Kush Himalayas to have been monitored annually for a decade or more, according to ICIMOD. Joshi said that the ceremony was also to honour the glacier as it has been an "open textbook" for young researchers and glaciologists. Himalayan glaciers, providing critical water to nearly two billion people, are melting faster than ever before due to climate change, exposing communities to unpredictable and costly disasters. Experts say that on current melt rates, many glaciers worldwide will not survive the 21st century. Last month, the United Nations said that all 19 of the world's glacier regions experienced a net loss of mass in 2024 for the third consecutive year. Together, they lost 450 billion tonnes of mass, the organization said, citing new data from the Swiss-based World Glacier Monitoring Service. Maheshwar Dhakal, chief at the Nepal government's climate change management division, said in a statement shared by ICIMOD that Nepal is at the frontlines of the impacts of temperature rise despite minimal emissions. "We are urging world leaders to pay attention to the changes in mountain glaciers, such as Yala, because our own fate, and futures, is bound up in those of our frozen freshwater reserves," Dhakal said. "Glacier loss is irreversible on human timescales. The time to act is now." pm/bjt
France 24
12-05-2025
- Science
- France 24
Nepal holds tribute for disappearing glacier
The Yala glacier, located between 5,170 and 5,750 metres above sea level, is in the Langtang Valley in northern Nepal. Since 1974, the glacier has shrunk in area by 66 percent and retreated 784 meters, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development(ICIMOD). Scientists warn it may eventually disappear by the 2040s if the warming trend continues, and might be among the first in Nepal to join the growing numbers of glaciers declared "dead" worldwide. "In the 40 years I have studies this glacier, I have seen it halve with my own eyes. We worry that the next generation might not be able to see it," Sharad Prasad Joshi, a cryosphere specialist at ICIMOD, told AFP. Prayer flags fluttered Monday as Buddhist monks performed a ceremony for Yala, with the Himalayas towering behind them. Two granite plaques were unveiled engraved with memorial messages in Nepali, English and Tibetan. "This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it," part of the message in one of the plaques read. The words were by Icelandic writer Andri Snaer Magnason, whose message is also at the site of the world's first glacier funeral in Iceland. Glacier funerals have also been held in Mexico, the United States and Switzerland. The ceremony comes as the world marked near-record high global temperatures in April, according to the EU's climate monitor. In its latest bulletin, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said that April was the second-hottest in its dataset, which draws on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations. All but one of the last 22 months exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the warming limit enshrined in the Paris agreement, beyond which major and lasting climate and environmental changes become more likely. -'Time to act'- Yala is one of seven glaciers in the 3,500 kilometre-long arc of the Hindu Kush Himalayas to have been monitored annually for a decade or more, according to ICIMOD. Joshi said that the ceremony was also to honour the glacier as it has been an "open textbook" for young researchers and glaciologists. Himalayan glaciers, providing critical water to nearly two billion people, are melting faster than ever before due to climate change, exposing communities to unpredictable and costly disasters. Experts say that on current melt rates, many glaciers worldwide will not survive the 21st century. Last month, the United Nations said that all 19 of the world's glacier regions experienced a net loss of mass in 2024 for the third consecutive year. Together, they lost 450 billion tonnes of mass, the organization said, citing new data from the Swiss-based World Glacier Monitoring Service. Maheshwar Dhakal, chief at the Nepal government's climate change management division, said in a statement shared by ICIMOD that Nepal is at the frontlines of the impacts of temperature rise despite minimal emissions. "We are urging world leaders to pay attention to the changes in mountain glaciers, such as Yala, because our own fate, and futures, is bound up in those of our frozen freshwater reserves," Dhakal said.
