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National Observer
5 days ago
- Business
- National Observer
Mark Carney's grand climate bargain comes into view
In a political fight that seems destined to go many rounds, the first one went to the Prime Minister. He emerged from the high-stakes first ministers' meeting with many of Canada's premiers — including Conservative ones like Doug Ford — singing his praises. Even Smith had to concede that Carney's performance had won over the room, describing him as a 'dramatic improvement' over his predecessor. That's because Carney didn't take the bait that Smith so obviously laid out around pipelines. Instead, he smartly called the bluff she's been getting away with for years now. Smith has talked up and down about her government's commitment to decarbonizing oil production in Alberta, one that involves reaching net-zero province-wide by 2050. As you read the official communiqué from the meeting it becomes clear that this is where Carney is going to dig in for the real fight — and where Smith is least prepared to defend herself. 'First Ministers agreed that Canada must work urgently to get Canadian natural resources and commodities to domestic and international markets,' it reads, 'such as critical minerals and decarbonized Canadian oil and gas by pipelines, supported by the private sector, that provide access to diversified global markets, including Asia and Europe. First Ministers also agreed to build cleaner and more affordable electricity systems to reduce emissions and increase reliability toward achieving net zero by 2050.' No new pipelines without decarbonization, in other words. This immediately shifts the onus to the oil industry, which has been slow-playing its promised investment in carbon capture and storage technology for years now. If it doesn't finally move ahead there, the conversation around new pipelines is effectively over — and the blame will fall squarely on them. This also makes it more difficult for Smith and Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre to continue their recent campaign against industrial carbon pricing, given its obvious role in decarbonizing upstream oil and gas production. Not everyone is buying what Carney is selling here, mind you. Catherine Abreu, the director of the International Climate Politics Hub, described the idea of decarbonized oil and gas as 'a complete contradiction in terms, and a dangerous lie that Canadian government after Canadian government has tried to spin under the spell of industry lobbying.' This tracks with the broader environmental movement's longstanding skepticism of carbon capture and storage, which is informed by the underwhelming performance of early stage projects. It's worth noting, I think, that the performance of early-stage wind and solar were equally dispiriting. Technologies can and often do improve with time and scale. More to the point, if Canada is willing to sink billions in tax credits into EV factories in Ontario and Quebec, the same sort of opportunity should probably be afforded to Alberta's largest industry — especially if we're trying to prevent the Alberta separatist movement from escaping political containment. Yes, these large carbon capture and storage projects might fail, just as some of the battery plants in central Canada already seem to have. But carbon capture technology also might succeed — and if it does, that's an unalloyed boon to both our economy and environment. Either way, Carney isn't biting on Smith's demands for new pipelines 'in every direction.' Instead, he's moving the conversation onto political ground that's far more favourable to his government, both in terms of the raw politics and its enduring (if evolving) commitment to fighting climate change. He will, as Smith demanded, create the conditions for a more rapid assessment of infrastructure projects. But it's clear that one of those conditions will be the net-zero targets that Smith and Alberta's oil and gas industry have repeatedly committed themselves to. If they can't or won't reach them, they'll finally have to come out and say as much. Mark Carney's first meeting with Canada's premiers resulted in an agreement to pursue projects that export "decarbonized oil and gas". How that helped avoid a confrontation with Danielle Smith — and why it puts the pressure squarely on her. If I had to guess, the only new oil export project we'll end up seeing is another expansion of TMX, one that can be accomplished with upgrades to the existing line and some dredging of Vancouver's Burrard Inlet, an idea that has been mooted by Carney and supported by BC's Minister of Energy and Climate Solutions Adrian Dix. That's in part because the combination of the increasingly imminent arrival of peak demand for oil will make new infrastructure projects like a revived Northern Gateway (which have to operate for decades to deliver an adequate economic return) a non-starter for the private sector. It's also because OPEC's declining interest in artificially supporting prices raises the prospect of another price war like the one in 2014 that devastated the Canadian oil patch. Carney knows all of this, and understands it better than any elected official in the country. His real interest, I suspect, is building the sorts of projects that will best position Canada in the low-carbon economy that so clearly lies ahead. But he also understands that getting into a pitched battle with Alberta by explicitly crushing its pipeline dreams gets in the way of that objective — and helps advance Smith's political agenda in the process. Sometimes, the best way to win a fight is by not fighting it at all.
The Guardian
14-03-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
UK hoping to work with China to counteract Trump's climate-hostile policies
The UK is hoping to shape a new global axis in favour of climate action along with China and a host of developing countries, to offset the impact of Donald Trump's abandonment of green policies and his sharp veer towards climate-hostile countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia. Ed Miliband, the UK's energy and net zero secretary, arrived in Beijing on Friday for three days of talks with top Chinese officials, including discussions on green technology supply chains, coal and the critical minerals needed for clean energy. The UK's green economy is growing three times faster than the rest of the economy, but access to components and materials will be crucial for that to continue. He said: 'We can only keep future generations safe from climate change if all major emitters act. It is simply an act of negligence to today's and future generations not to engage China on how it can play its part in taking action on climate.' Writing in the Guardian, he added: 'Climate action at home without pushing other, larger countries to do their fair share would not protect current and future generations. We will only protect our farmers, our pensioners and our children if we get other countries of the world to play their part.' China is facing a barrage of tariffs from Trump on its exports to the US, and the potential that the EU will start levying green tariffs on imports of high-carbon Chinese goods such as steel. The world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter is profiting from record exports of electric vehicles, solar panels and other low-carbon goods. But it is still highly dependent on coal, and though the upward march of its emissions appears to have paused, whether China reduces its carbon output or returns to fossil fuels may depend largely on the government's response to Trump's trade war. Many experts believe the only prospect of staving off climate breakdown is for China, the EU, the UK and other major economies to form a pro-climate bloc alongside vulnerable developing countries, to counter the weight of Trump's US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and petrostates pushing for the continued expansion of fossil fuels. Miliband's visit to Beijing is the first by a UK energy secretary in eight years. He also visited India last month, on a similar mission, and travelled to Brazil last year, as well as holding meetings with many minsters of developing countries at the Cop29 climate summit last November. Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, said: 'It's really important to see this happening – there is no way to fulfil the Paris agreement without China. And China has made clear it is willing to be more vocal on these issues, to boost climate action. We see an openness in China to band together with Europe, Canada, the UK on climate issues.' But the prospects of agreement on the sharp emissions cuts needed globally to limit temperature rises to 1.5C, in line with the Paris agreement, are increasingly remote. Brazil will host this year's UN climate summit, Cop30, in the Amazon in November, amid the worst geopolitical tensions in decades, and as many governments prepare to pour money into rearmament. Only a handful of countries, including the UK, have so far submitted the national plans on emissions cuts for the next decade as required under the 2015 Paris agreement, despite the deadline passing last month. China is unlikely to produce its plan until much closer to the Cop30 conference, and will be keenly watched, as its current carbon targets are much too weak to stay within the 1.5C limit. Miliband may also find he needs to adapt his plans for a booming green economy in the UK in the face of China's economic dominance of the low-carbon technology market, in electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and other key components, according to Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 'We need to be honest about the economic reality,' he said. 'All countries in the world are hoping for a share of the green pie. But that is not aligned with the economic reality … that they can't outcompete China.'
