Latest news with #InternationalInstituteForStrategicStudies
CNA
3 days ago
- General
- CNA
Evolving security threats shaping the way countries deal with defence strategies: IISS report
Evolving security threats — from cyberspace to the seabed — are shaping the way countries deal with defence strategies. This includes protecting a network of undersea cables that carries 95% of the world's internet and communication data. Leong Wai Kit breaks down key findings from a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which will help shape discussions among the world's defence experts at this weekend's Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore.
South China Morning Post
4 days ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
PLA attack on Taiwan ‘unlikely' but ‘not impossible' with Trump in White House: report
People's Liberation Army (PLA) attack on Taiwan is 'unlikely in the near future' but 'not impossible', given the risks of misperception and miscommunication with the US under President Donald Trump , a British think tank has warned. The US–China relationship is 'more strained than it has ever been at any other point in the 21st century', according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which published its latest Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment on Wednesday. The release of the report's 2025 edition comes ahead of this week's Shangri-La Dialogue , Asia's premier annual defence summit held in Singapore and co-organised by the IISS. Tensions between Washington and Beijing over issues such as trade, technology and Taiwan were setting the tone of a relationship characterised by 'deep mutual distrust and a lack of dialogue mechanisms', the report said. It noted some tactical improvements during the previous Biden administration, such as the resumption of military-to-military dialogue and an agreement not to include artificial intelligence in nuclear decision-making, but cautioned that these were unlikely to 'significantly alter the strategic direction of the two great powers' during Trump's second term in office. 'Trump's first term [2017-2021] saw the US launch its first Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017, which made clear that the region had become a priority for Washington. Central to this strategy was an acknowledgement that Chinese coercion and influence undermined the interests of the US and countries in the Asia-Pacific,' the report said.
News.com.au
4 days ago
- Business
- News.com.au
Four countries have lifted restrictions on Ukraine's strikes on Russia, three years into the war
For the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Ukraine has been given the green light to use Western-supplied long-range weapons inside Russian territory. Even as optimism over a ceasefire deal slowly mounts, key figures in the EU have remained adamant that the Russian threat must be contained. The tension and uncertainty over the true extent of Vladimir Putin's ambitions is clearly rattling cages. Earlier this month, a report from The International Institute for Strategic Studies warned Russia could be in a position to threaten NATO nations within two years if it is allowed to rebuild its military. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed the escalation this week, stating that 'there are no longer any restrictions on the range of weapons delivered to Ukraine – neither by the UK, France, nor us. There are no restrictions by the US either.' In other words, the gloves are off. The comment marks a considerable escalation from the West. Previously, missiles such as the British-French Storm Shadow and SCALP, as well as US-supplied ATACMS, came with strings attached. Ukraine was expected to use them only within its own occupied territories. But with Russia continuing its assault on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure — and with Ukraine's capacity to strike back strategically hampered — Western leaders appear to have recalibrated. 'Ukraine can now defend itself, for example, by attacking military positions in Russia. Until recently, it couldn't do that,' Chancellor Merz said. The shift in policy hasn't come out of nowhere, but the timing raises questions. Why wait three years and after tens of thousands of deaths to authorise strikes beyond Ukraine's borders? The initial reluctance stemmed from fears of provoking a broader war with Russia — a nuclear state whose doctrine explicitly allows the use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to existential threats. But as the war has dragged on and Russia has intensified its bombardment of civilian targets, including kindergartens and hospitals, the political appetite to continue tiptoeing around the Kremlin's red lines appears to have waned. For more than a year, Russia has launched missile and drone attacks into Ukraine from positions just over the border, effectively exploiting NATO's restraint. The move will likely spur on pro-Russian voices in the media, who have long claimed the West is using the Ukraine conflict as a proxy war to deplete Moscow of resources without openly declaring war. Russia could strike EU 'as early as 2027' The IISS report suggests Russia's ability to mount a credible challenge to NATO could return as early as 2027, particularly if US President Donald Trump succeeds in securing a ceasefire in Ukraine and winds back Washington's support for the alliance. This suggests that a lapse in full-tilt warfare would allow Russia to re-establish their battered military and position for another move. Reports have repeatedly claimed Russia's land forces have been severely depleted in Ukraine, with thousands of tanks and armoured vehicles lost. Nonetheless, US European Command chief General Christopher Cavoli says that Russia is already on track to replenish its arsenal. Putin's pledge last year to boost active military personnel to 1.5 million is part of that effort. The IISS report asserts that Russia could rebuild its ground forces to pre-war levels within two years — especially if it shifts to a lower-tech, high-volume model reminiscent of Soviet-era armies. It warns of 'a significant military challenge to NATO allies, particularly the Baltic states, as early as 2027'. While such a force would lack NATO's technological edge, it could still pose a serious challenge. French President Emmanuel Macron and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas have echoed similar concerns, warning that Russia's military ambitions extend beyond Ukraine. 'It's a question of when they will start the next war,' Kallas said last year. For now, international efforts continue to weave through the diplomatic minefield that comes with ending an incomprehensibly complex conflict that has stewed for decades. But there are signs of movement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently revealed he is heading to Istanbul for possible direct talks with Vladimir Putin, after the Russian president unexpectedly signalled interest in reviving the long-dormant Istanbul peace track. Meanwhile, Trump has grown increasingly frustrated at the pace of negotiations and has hinted at walking away if progress isn't made. One of his major campaign promises was to end the war immediately, mostly to avoid the rapidly multiplying bill for assisting Ukraine. While Ukraine agreed to a full 30-day ceasefire in March, Russia has yet to reciprocate.
Russia Today
17-05-2025
- Business
- Russia Today
US running out of patience over European troop reduction
Washington plans to start discussing the details of a partial European troop pullout with other NATO members later this year, the US ambassador to the bloc, Matthew Whitaker, has said. America has sought to do so for over three decades and is running out of patience, he added. NBC News reported in April that the US is considering withdrawing up to 10,000 troops from Eastern Europe. US President Donald Trump later confirmed that he is considering a partial pullout, but did not provide a timetable. Whitaker has now said discussions will take place later this year. 'It will be certainly after the summit, sometime later in the year, we are going to start those conversations... All our allies are ready to do it,' he told Reuters on Friday, referring to the bloc's upcoming summit in The Hague. 'We are not going to have any more patience for foot dragging in this situation... We just need to work through the practical consequences,' Whitaker said, adding that 'nothing has been determined' yet. 'But as soon as we do, we are going to have these conversations in the structure of NATO.' The cost of replacing the US equipment and personnel following the withdrawal could amount to around $1 trillion over 25 years, Politico reported earlier this week, citing a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The sum would include one-off purchase costs ranging from $226 billion to $344 billion, depending on the equipment to be replaced, as well as expenses regarding maintenance, personnel, and support. The list of military hardware that European NATO members would need to acquire after the pullout could include 400 tactical combat aircraft, 20 destroyers, and 24 long-range surface-to-air missiles, the news outlet said. As of early 2025, there were nearly 84,000 US troops stationed in Europe, with the largest concentrations in Germany and Poland, and smaller deployments in Romania, Estonia, and Lithuania, according to US European Command. The US is NATO's largest financial contributor, and Trump has repeatedly criticized the bloc's European members for failing to meet defense spending targets and urged them to take more responsibility for their own defense.
The Sun
16-05-2025
- Politics
- The Sun
US has no hope of breakthrough in ceasefire talks with Zel's aides still waiting in Turkey for Putin's ‘props'
Putin 'will rebuild depleted army to attack Nato in TWO YEARS ' Vladimir Putin could launch a direct attack on Nato by 2027 if he is allowed to rebuild his army during a ceasefire, military experts say. The world has been calling for a pause in the gruelling conflict but fears are mounting that this could have a major knock on effect for the future security of Europe. If a ceasefire can finally be agreed upon, then it will allow Putin time to regroup and come up with a fresh attack plan - which could now include other European nations. Russia could rebuild its military to a worrying capacity as early as 2027, according to a report by a top security think tank. The International Institute for Strategic Studies said Putin may deploy his army onto a 'war footing' and try to test Nato by evoking Article 5. This may see the Kremlin decide to leave Ukraine alone as it continues to recover from Russia's three-and-a-half year onslaught. Instead, Putin could commit to an attack on Nato states in the Baltics. Read more here.
