Latest news with #InternationalJournalofEpidemiology
The Spinoff
13-07-2025
- Health
- The Spinoff
Counting the true toll of the Covid-19 pandemic in New Zealand
As the Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand's Covid-19 response continues, modelling expert Michael Plank presents a new study on the country's excess mortality rate. How many people died because of the Covid-19 pandemic in New Zealand? It sounds like a simple question, but the answer depends on more than just counting reported Covid-19 deaths. My colleagues and I recently published a study in the International Journal of Epidemiology looking at excess mortality – the number of deaths above what we would have expected if there hadn't been a pandemic. Excess mortality helps us to measure the overall impact of the pandemic, not just from Covid-19 itself but also from things like delayed medical care or the side effects of lockdowns. And because it's based on the total number of deaths from any cause, it doesn't depend on how the cause of death was determined, nor whether the death was recorded as being due to Covid-19 or not. Many people will have seen the Our World in Data Covid-19 dashboard, which allows users to compare excess mortality between countries. This dashboard shows that New Zealand's total excess mortality up to the end of 2023 was less than 1%. In other words, the number of deaths during the pandemic was less than 1% higher than expected. But not everyone agrees with this conclusion. A 2024 study by John Gibson argued that the excess mortality in New Zealand was actually much higher than this. Our World in Data's method missed a crucial factor: New Zealand's population growth ground to a halt in 2020 due to pandemic travel restrictions. With fewer people in the country, Gibson claimed, we should have expected fewer deaths; so the excess mortality was actually higher. We wanted to know if this was really true. Could the Our World in Data dashboard be inadvertently hiding a swathe of excess deaths in New Zealand? To answer this question, we built a statistical model that estimated trends in the death rate in different age groups over time. We then used this model to calculate how many deaths would have been expected if the pandemic had never happened and pre-pandemic trends had simply continued. Our model accounts for changes in population size and ageing to ensure a fair comparison. We looked at excess mortality up to the end of 2023 because we wanted to include the period after New Zealand's elimination strategy ended and the virus became widespread. Was New Zealand's pandemic death toll higher than reported? The answer from our work is a resounding 'no'. We estimated the total number of deaths between 2020 and 2023 was somewhere between 2% higher than expected and 0.8% lower. In other words, we can't be confident that more people died during the pandemic than would have died anyway. We can be confident that the number of deaths was no more than 2% higher than expected. In 2020, the number of deaths was unusually low, mainly because border closures and lockdowns inadvertently wiped out influenza as well as Covid-19. In 2022 and 2023, deaths increased as Covid-19 became widespread. The timing of excess deaths matched very closely with reported Covid-19 deaths, with the highest death rates occurring during the biggest Covid-19 waves of 2022. This suggests that the virus itself was the main driver, rather than indirect factors. Overall, New Zealand's estimated excess mortality of less than 2% is far lower than that in countries like the United Kingdom (10%) or United States (11%) over the same period. And although our study only covered the period up to the end of 2023, the overall age-standardised mortality rate in 2024 was below pre-pandemic levels. This shows that there is no mystery factor causing large numbers of unexplained deaths. Reported Covid-19 deaths appear be an accurate measure of the pandemic's death toll. So why the controversy? Gibson was right that New Zealand's population growth stalled during the pandemic. But that's only part of the story. Most deaths happen in older people, and this part of the population continued to grow during the pandemic. So, even though total population growth slowed, the number of elderly people – the group at highest risk of dying – still increased as expected. In other words, New Zealand's ageing population was a more important driver of the expected number of deaths than the number of immigrants, who tend to be relatively young. Why does this matter? The next pandemic is a question of when, not if. If we are to respond better to future pandemics, it's essential that we understand the full impact of our response to Covid-19. Some critics argue that New Zealand's elimination strategy just delayed the inevitable. Deaths that were prevented in 2020 and 2021 – the argument goes – were simply delayed until 2022 or 2023, when the virus became widespread. But the data tell a different story. Our response bought time for people to get vaccinated before they were exposed to the virus. And that massively reduced the fatality risk. New Zealand's response was far from perfect, and there were undoubtedly harms as a result of lockdowns and other measures that are not reflected in mortality statistics. But there can be no doubt that the response saved thousands of lives compared with the alternatives. Michael Plank led a group of researchers who were commissioned by the New Zealand government to provide modelling in support of the response to Covid-19 between 2020 and 2023.
Jordan News
29-06-2025
- Health
- Jordan News
Dangerous Property of Omega-3 Discovered - Jordan News
Dangerous Property of Omega-3 Discovered Researchers at the University of Bristol have found that omega-3 fatty acids, which are commonly believed to be beneficial, may actually increase levels of certain inflammatory markers. اضافة اعلان According to the International Journal of Epidemiology (IJE), the team noted that while omega-3 is generally considered anti-inflammatory, their findings suggest the reality may be more nuanced. The study was based on data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a 30-year research project that followed individuals born in the former Avon county in England between 1991 and 1992. It also incorporated health information from participants' parents, siblings, and children. Analysis showed that higher concentrations of omega-3 in participants' blood correlated with increased levels of several inflammatory biomarkers. The researchers emphasized the significance of the omega-6 to omega-3 ratio: when omega-6 was dominant, inflammation increased. These results were further validated through data from the UK Biobank, one of the world's largest medical databases, covering around half a million individuals. To assess causality, the scientists used a method called Mendelian randomization, and again found a positive association between omega fatty acids and inflammatory processes. However, the researchers stressed that inflammation is a complex biological mechanism, and the study does not negate the potential health benefits of omega-3. They clarified that omega-3 is not necessarily harmful, but like any nutrient, its effects depend on context, dosage, and individual factors. (Source:
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Researchers' astonishing discovery after studying hundreds of thousands of commuters shows the transit habit linked to good mental health
For many, the saying "movement is medicine" is more than a truism. A study by researchers based in Scotland explored the relationship between mental health and cycling. Among those who cycled to work, Medical Xpress summarized, there was a lower incidence of being prescribed medication to treat anxiety and depression. The study, published in January 2024 in the International Journal of Epidemiology, used data from the 2011 Scottish census for almost 380,000 residents between the ages of 16 and 74. All of those included stayed within about one mile of a city bike path and did not take prescriptions for mental health at the start of the study period. Researchers compared the data against prescription records for the five years that followed, up until 2016. They found that those who cycled to work between 2011 and 2016, in comparison to non-cyclists, saw a 15% reduction in prescriptions to address mental health conditions, per Medical Xpress. Taking medication to treat anxiety or depression isn't a poor outcome, just as not being prescribed such medication is not itself an indication of perfect mental health. But exercise has long been recognized as a key contributor to mental wellness. Purposeful movement can release "feel-good" chemicals — endorphins and serotonin — that reduce pain, improve moods, and aid in regulation. Physical activity can also help lower stress hormones, enhancing one's well-being overall. But the benefits don't end there. As study co-author Chris Dibben noted in a statement, "Not only could [commuter cycling] improve people's mental health, but it could also help reduce carbon emissions, road congestion, and air pollution." There's some reason to believe that for those understandably stressed about human-caused climate change, active commuting in the form of cycling could even help address some environmental anxieties. Using a traditional bike or e-bike instead of a gas-powered vehicle can help lower emissions of heat-trapping gases, not only mitigating rising temperatures but also reducing the amount of pollutants in the air. Cycling to work can also cut commuter costs and streamline the workday. That might be especially true for those opting for fold-up e-bikes that can be easily transported around town and into buildings. By owning an e-bike, users can also capitalize on home solar to save on charging costs. EnergySage offers easy-to-use tools to help consumers find local, vetted sources for solar quotes. Switching from car travel to biking can make a huge difference for an individual's physical and mental health as well as for the environment — but it can sometimes be difficult to know where to start in finding a bike that's right for you. Tapping into a local bike-sharing program might be a great, cost-effective way to test out traditional bikes and get to know other area cyclists. For those who want to try an e-bike, Upway offers a wide variety of new and pre-owned options, with many costing up to 60% less than retail. It's also a destination for those looking to sell an e-bike before making an upgrade. How much time do you spend commuting in the car each week? Over an hour a day 30-60 minutes a day Under 30 minutes a day I never drive to work Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. Residential destinations — or where people most dream of living — may increasingly include bike paths and green spaces. As Dibben said, "Our finding that this economical and sustainable method of traveling to work also enhances mental health suggests that a policy of investing in cycle paths and encouraging active commuting is likely to have wide-ranging benefits." It's another indicator that making it easier for the public to care for and connect with the environment can come with multiple and compounding wins, from physical health and mental wellness to less air pollution and lower costs all around. Join our free newsletter for weekly updates on the latest innovations improving our lives and shaping our future, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
