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Express Tribune
25-02-2025
- Climate
- Express Tribune
AI-driven cloud seeding offers hope for ending drought in UAE
Listen to article In the halls of a luxury hotel in Abu Dhabi, experts gathered to address an age-old challenge: making it rain in the UAE, one of the world's largest deserts. Despite decades of research and millions of dollars spent, rainfall remains elusive in this arid region, home to a growing expatriate population thriving amid the harsh climate and blistering summer heat. However, at the recent International Rain Enhancement Forum, held last month, a glimmer of hope emerged. Officials are now exploring artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance cloud seeding techniques, potentially increasing rainfall in the region's dry skies. Luca Delle Monache, deputy director of the Centre for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California San Diego, confirmed that AI-driven cloud seeding is in its final stages. AI will feed satellite, radar, and weather data into an algorithm that predicts where seedable clouds will form over the next six hours, improving the accuracy of cloud seeding missions, which occur regularly in the UAE. Although cloud seeding has been used for decades, AI could bring significant improvements. The technology works by using planes to fire chemicals, like salt, into clouds, encouraging the formation of larger droplets that can fall as rain. While cloud seeding can boost rainfall by 10-15%, it requires precise timing and correct cloud conditions. Delle Monache stressed that AI could help pinpoint the right location and time to optimize the chances of success. The UAE, with an average of only 100 millimeters (3.9 inches) of rainfall per year, relies heavily on desalinated water for its nearly 10 million residents. Yet, agriculture and industry also require groundwater replenished by rain. Despite the government's efforts to enhance rainfall, downpours remain so rare that children often cheer and rush to windows when they occur. The country's pursuit of rain is not new. Ordering prayers for rain is a common tradition among Gulf ruling families. Last year, the UAE witnessed a rare, heavy rainfall event, when record downpours flooded roads and shut down Dubai's international airport for days. The UAE's Rain Enhancement Programme has already invested $22.5 million in grants to support innovation in cloud seeding and other rain-related technologies. Experts gathered at the forum emphasized that AI's potential to improve weather prediction is still in its early stages. Some caution remains, as precise data about cloud composition is often scarce due to expensive monitoring equipment. 'AI is an exciting frontier, but it is not a silver bullet,' said Marouane Temimi, associate professor at Stevens Institute of Technology. "There is still a lot of work to be done, particularly when it comes to data accuracy." Loic Fauchon, president of the World Water Council, urged a balanced approach, emphasizing that human intelligence still plays a crucial role in tackling the challenges of water scarcity.
Yahoo
25-02-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Stuck in eternal drought, UAE turns to AI to make it rain
In the marbled halls of a luxury hotel, leading experts are discussing a new approach to an age-old problem: how to make it rain in the UAE, the wealthy Gulf state that lies in one of the world's biggest deserts. Decades of work and millions of dollars have been ploughed into easing endless drought in the oil-rich UAE, whose mainly expatriate population is soaring undeterred by a dry, hostile climate and hairdryer summer heat. Despite the United Arab Emirates' best efforts, rainfall remains rare. But at last month's International Rain Enhancement Forum in Abu Dhabi officials held out a new hope: harnessing artificial intelligence to wring more moisture out of often cloudless skies. Among the initiatives is an AI system to improve cloud seeding, the practice of using planes to fire salt or other chemicals into clouds to increase rain. "It's pretty much finished," said Luca Delle Monache, deputy director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "We're doing the final touches." However, Delle Monache conceded that AI was not a "silver bullet" for the UAE, which like other countries has pursued cloud seeding for decades. Cloud seeding works by increasing the size of droplets, which then fall as rain. It's estimated to increase rainfall by 10-15 percent, Delle Monache said. But it only works with certain types of puffy, cumulus clouds, and can even suppress rainfall if not done properly. "You've got to do it in the right place at the right time. That's why we use artificial intelligence," he added. - Prayers, applause - The three-year project, funded with $1.5 million from the UAE's rain enhancement program, feeds satellite, radar and weather data into an algorithm that predicts where seedable clouds will form in the next six hours. It promises to advance the current method where cloud-seeding flights are directed by experts studying satellite images. Hundreds of such flights occur annually in the UAE. With only about 100 millimetres (3.9 inches) of annual rainfall, the UAE's nearly 10 million people mainly rely on desalinated water, piped from plants that produce about 14 percent of the world's total, according to official figures. The population is 90 percent foreign and has increased nearly 30-fold since the UAE's founding in 1971. People are concentrated in the big cities of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah, coast-hugging refuges from the vast Arabian Desert hinterland. However, the country still needs groundwater, replenished by rain and encouraged by a series of dams, for agriculture and industry. Although UAE officials say rain has increased, downpours remain so unusual that school children are known to burst into applause and rush to classroom windows for a better view. Rain, even the artificial variety, is exotic enough to be a leisure attraction: at Dubai's Raining Street, visitors pay 300 dirhams ($81) to walk in fake drizzle. Ordering prayers for rain is a long-standing practice by the Gulf's ruling families. The memorable exception was last April, when the heaviest rains on record shuttered Dubai's major international air hub and flooded roads, paralysing the city for days. - 'Very niche area' - Searching for solutions, the UAE in 2017 started holding the rainfall forum, which has now seen seven editions. Its Rain Enhancement Program has handed out $22.5 million in grants over a decade. "When it comes to cloud-seeding this program here is the best in the world," Delle Monache said at the forum, held near the presidential palace and next to the headquarters of ADNOC, the state oil firm. "It's a very niche area in atmospheric science. There are few experts in the world and they're pretty much all here now." His team's algorithm was not the only use of AI in discussion. Marouane Temimi, associate professor at Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, outlined a US-developed system that uses machine learning to track the path and impact of storms in real time. However Temimi, like Delle Monache, was also cautious about AI solutions, warning there were clear limits. A lack of detailed data about cloud composition -- a common problem, as monitoring equipment is expensive -- hampers accurate predictions even with AI, Temimi said. "I would say we still have some work to do just because we have data, but not enough data to train models correctly," he told AFP. Enthusiasm for AI was also tempered by Loic Fauchon, president of the World Water Council of government, commercial, UN and other groups. "Be careful. Try to find the right balance between artificial intelligence and human intelligence," he told the conference. "Do not go too fast to artificial intelligence. Humankind is probably the best (option)." th/it/fox
Zawya
30-01-2025
- Climate
- Zawya
7th International Rain Enhancement Forum wraps up successful seventh edition
Event draws participation of over 600 scientists, researchers, and specialists in weather modification and rain enhancement science 50 high-profile speakers from across the globe explore cutting-edge topics including Artificial Intelligence for weather modification, innovations in Autonomous Aerial Systems, advancements in Cloud Seeding Materials, and fostering youth engagement Abu Dhabi-UAE – The International Rain Enhancement Forum (IREF), which ran under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Vice President, Deputy Prime Minister, and Chairman of the Presidential Court, wrapped up a highly successful seventh edition today at Conrad Abu Dhabi at Etihad Towers. Organized by the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), through the UAE Research Program for Rain Enhancement Science (UAEREP), the event featured insightful panel discussions and interactive presentations across five key strategic pillars: Collaboration, Innovation, Capacity Building, Artificial Intelligence, and Applied Research. Over its three-day run, the Forum drew the participation of more than 600 scientists, researchers, and specialists in weather modification and rain enhancement science. The event also featured over 50 high-profile speakers from across the globe, including leading experts, policymakers, and researchers, discussing cutting-edge topics including Artificial Intelligence for weather modification, innovations in Autonomous Aerial Systems, and advancements in Cloud Seeding Materials, along with fostering youth engagement. A major highlight of the event, which marked UAEREP's 10th anniversary, was the launch of the program's 6th cycle for submissions of innovative research proposals, offering a grant of up USD 1.5 million (AED 5.511 million) for each winning project proposal. The grant will be distributed among up to three innovative research projects over three years, with a maximum annual amount of $550K. During the Forum, His Highness Sheikh Theyab bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Chairman of the Presidential Court for Development and Fallen Heroes' Affairs, honored a number of distinguished local and international figures and institutions that have contributed to the program's establishment and leadership over the past decade. His Excellency Dr. Abdulla Al Mandous, Director General of the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) and President of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said: 'We are proud of our wise leadership's continued support for the water security agenda as well as the growing role of IREF as a key platform for international experts and researchers to advance discussions on water security and weather modification. The UAE's efforts in this domain significantly contribute to uniting the scientific community's efforts toward finding new solutions for securing global water resources, particularly in regions facing water scarcity. This aligns with the UAE's commitment to pioneering cutting-edge technologies for water security and sustainable resource management.' Alya Al Mazrouei, Director of UAEREP, said: 'The 7th IREF and its expert-led sessions reaffirm UAEREP's dedication to advancing scientific research and enriching global dialogue on water security and climate resilience. The diverse discussions, ideas, and studies presented during the Forum will significantly contribute to the progress of rain enhancement science, and we are eager to build on these outcomes to drive further advancements in the field. While we look forward to receiving proposals for the Sixth Cycle of UAEREP, we remain committed to ensuring the seamless transition of research outcomes into practical solutions that support communities facing water scarcity challenges worldwide.' Key Highlights from the Final Day The final day of the forum featured in-depth sessions on specialized topics, highlighting the latest advancements in rainfall enhancement science. The first session, titled "Limited-Area Climate Interventions as a Catalyst for Rainfall Enhancement," explored the growing interest in targeted climate interventions and their potential implications for rainfall enhancement. Moderated by Deon Terblanche, Member of UAEREP's Strategic Direction Committee (SDC), the session opened with a speech by Kelly Wanser, Executive Director of Silver Lining. This was followed by technical presentations, including Jean-Francois Lamarque, Chief Climate Scientist at Silver Lining, who spoke on 'Recent Developments in Modeling and Deployment of Regional Climate Interventions.' Oliver Branch, Senior Scientist at the University of Hohenheim, presented his research on 'Artificial Heat Islands – An Intelligent Solution for Rainfall Enhancement in the UAE.' Christopher Lennard, Environmental Scientist at the University of Cape Town, discussed 'Impacts of Solar Geoengineering on Rainfall Enhancement Programs.' The session concluded with a panel discussion featuring Jean-Francois Lamarque, Oliver Branch, and Christopher Lennard, who provided further insights into the applications and challenges of climate intervention techniques. The discussion explored various research areas, including Solar Radiation Management (SRM), Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB), and landform modification related to rainfall enhancement research. The second session, titled "New Approaches and Innovations for Cloud Formation and/or Rainfall Enhancement," showcased non-conventional and innovative research applications aimed at improving rain-bearing cloud formation and rainfall enhancement. Moderated by Raha Hakimdavar, Senior Advisor to the Deans of Georgetown University in Qatar (GU-Q) and Earth Commons, the session began with an opening speech by Abbass Karim, General Manager of Fluid Codes. The session then featured a series of technical presentations. Kala Golden, Cloud Seeding Program Manager at the Idaho Department of Water Resources, presented on 'Glaciogenic Cloud Seeding in the Northwestern United States: The Idaho Approach.' Ali Abshaev, a UAEREP 3rd Cycle Awardee from the High Mountain Geophysical Institute of Russian Hydrometeorological Service, discussed 'Experience of Using Jet-Aerosol Technology in the Formation of Updrafts and Clouds: Challenges and New Perspectives.' Zhanyu YAO from the CMA Weather Modification Center delivered a presentation on 'Chinese Acoustic Rain Enhancement Experiments and Effect Analysis.' The session concluded with a panel discussion featuring Kala Golden, Ali Abshaev, Zhanyu YAO, and Guillaume Matras, UAEREP 5th Cycle Awardee and Senior Director of High Power Lasers and Applications at the Directed Energy Research Center (DERC) of the Technology Innovation Institute (TII). Discussions focused on both ground-based and airborne systems, exploring novel approaches beyond traditional cloud seeding techniques.
The National
29-01-2025
- Climate
- The National
'Nowcasting': how AI is reshaping weather forecasts
It is no secret that artificial intelligence is everywhere today. But, now, an AI front is passing over the world of weather forecasting. AI has improved forecasting so much that, in some cases, it can outperform conventional systems, an expert has told The National. Marouane Temimi, associate professor at the Stevens Institute of Technology in the US, said the pattern has emerged over the past few years and could lead to hugely improved short-term forecasting that can pinpoint which areas of a city can expect rain. Speaking on the sidelines of the International Rain Enhancement Forum in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, Prof Temimi said these forecasts – called nowcasting – could also lead to better emergency responses. They can be used for any extreme weather event from hurricanes to wildfires to storms. But he also said that AI systems might run out of data if there is less of a commitment to conventional physics-based forecasting models. 'AI-based models are doing well, close enough to the physics-based model – the traditional model that we have been using,' said Prof Temimi. 'In some cases they even overperformed them. The European model that was developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has shown that.' Where AI systems may have a crucial role is this ultra short-term 'nowcasting' that can track a storm over several hours. 'They tend to have better accuracy when it comes to the location and the timing of the magnitude of rainfall,' he said, with such a model developed at his university. 'If you have a last-minute decision' to take – like evacuate people or close roads – then you rely on the nowcasting instead of the forecasting.' Many technology companies are developing AI weather forecast models. An example is Graphcast developed by Google's DeepMind that identified the landfall location of Hurricane Beryl last year before regular models. Many countries are now exploring this development, with money pouring into the field and government agencies figuring out how to use such models. But much more research and funds are needed. But there is a much larger issue. Conventional forecasting models are a series of complex equations based on huge amounts of data built up over decades and compiled by experts. 'These are basically complex models that are built out of millions and millions of lines of codes and they try with their structure to mimic every single small process that happens out in nature … to predict weather,' said Prof Temimi, who is based in the New Jersey university's department of civil, environmental and ocean engineering. He said there is an entire atmospheric science community that has been studying the physics of clouds, radiation of the Sun and much more that informs these physics-based models. This has been built up over decades thanks to this painstaking work. But with the advent of AI over the past few years, things have started to change as it does not look at these microprocesses. It simply takes the information from satellite images to radar details and identifies patterns over time. 'Unfortunately, AI does not go into those details,' he said. 'AI can try to predict events without that strong knowledge of physics.' The more data the better, but what happens when the data runs out? Prof Temimi said that data could become scarcer if there is a greater reliance on AI and less of a commitment to the hard task of gathering information without which the AI systems could not work. 'Eventually, we may risk running out of data to feed the AI models. The community will [need] to find a solution or a compromise because we cannot drop the physics-based model, in my opinion, and we cannot all shift to the AI models.' The forum, meanwhile, has drawn experts in weather modification and water security from around the world. Discussion on Wednesday focused on new cloud-seeding materials and the role of drones and aircraft in weather modification. Student and early-career scientists from local and international research institutions also presented studies into the field. The forum continues until Thursday.
The National
28-01-2025
- Climate
- The National
Cloud-seeding must weather 'rampant' misinformation storm, expert warns
Cloud-seeding is a crucial tool in securing new supplies of freshwater, the process "100 per cent works" and it can help bolster water security, a leading US expert has told The National. Kala Golden, cloud-seeding programme manager for the state of Idaho, was speaking on the sidelines of the International Rain Enhancement Forum in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, and highlighted studies which found how effective it can be. However, she warned that more research was needed, while misinformation about seeding is running rampant and needs to be tackled. Idaho is a landlocked, mountainous state in the western US where water use is driven largely by agriculture and, unlike the UAE which tries to generate more rain, the state is trying to encourage more snowfall. 'We're seeing declining snowpacks and earlier melt-off, which is detrimental for our agriculture industries,' Ms Golden told The National. 'What's the solution? Where are you going to get more water?" Ms Golden said. "You can't build a pipeline because it's not cost-effective and we're not near an ocean so you can't truck it in because of the quantities of water we use – cloud-seeding is the only mechanism we have to bring more water to our state. The state's programme runs through the winter and tries to bolster snowfall in its basins, from where Idaho gets much of its water. When asked if seeding was effective, she said '100 per cent'. She drew attention to a 2017 study in Idaho that captured on radar an unnatural zigzag pattern from an aircraft during a seeding mission. 'As this aircraft was seeding, it was generating ice and they were able to measure the ice reflectivity from radar scans and quantify some of it,' she said. 'This one image is largely what we consider the 'holy grail' in wintertime seeding. The impact from that research was monumental. Cloud-seeding really just started to blow up across the western US because of that.' Ms Golden said more studies were needed but some pinpointed increases in precipitation of up to 15 per cent. The Idaho programme uses silver iodide rather than salt, which is what the UAE largely uses, but the aim is the same. 'I like to tell people is that we're wringing more water out of the sky," Ms Golden said. "We just do it in the form of snow because, where we live, snowpack is our primary water storage. More snow means more water run-off.' Ms Golden's comments came on the first day of a conference that, over the next few days, will feature scores of experts from across the world discussing weather modification and water security. The role of artificial intelligence in seeding was a major talking point on the first day but conversations also took place on water scarcity and security. It is the seventh International Rain Enhancement Forum and the UAE's cloud-seeding programme, which Ms Golden described as a "global example", has been around since the 1990s. "More countries could learn from them and their advancements, and their willingness to collaborate and to support global water security,' she said. One challenge Ms Golden flagged up was an increase in misinformation and disinformation in the past few years, fuelled largely by social media. 'We've had accusations that we're starting hurricanes or controlling floods [or creating] chemtrails," she said. 'I think that really draws attention to the fact there is a lot of misinformation." Seeding efforts have also been challenged by some who say it amounts to overinterference with natural processes. Ms Golden says she has heard this criticism but highlights other interventions such as building dams. 'That's messing with the natural system,' she said, "there's lots of other examples. The biggest concerns we hear about are health concerns, which we feel like aren't warranted," she said, stating the programme disperses a small amount of silver iodide. "It is unlikely that it could ever accumulate into an amount that could be detrimental ... but trying to communicate that to the public and help them understand that has been an uphill battle." She also said politics can come into the arena. Only last year the state of Tennessee banned "geoengineering", including seeding. 'It's sort of a dangerous precedent – cloud-seeding aside – I feel, to be considering or setting policy without science and factually based information, but cloud-seeding is where we're seeing that happening right now." The gathering in Abu Dhabi is being hosted by the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) through its UAE Research Programme for Rain Enhancement Science. Since that project was established in 2015, it has awarded Dh82.6 million ($22.5 million) in grants to researchers around the world. A new cycle of awards was launched on Monday, with researchers having until March 20, 2025, to submit their proposals. Grants of Dh5.5 million for up to three winning project proposals are on offer, with those successful being announced next year. 'The people here will push the science of cloud-seeding forward,' said Dr Abdulla Al Mandous, director general at the NCM. "The benefit from this gathering is for the whole world." The forum continues in Abu Dhabi until Thursday.
