Latest news with #Invest96L
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center issues 1st advisory on Tropical Storm Erin. Any Florida impacts?
Invest 97L quickly strengthened, becoming Tropical Storm Erin this morning, Aug. 11. The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on the fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season at 11 a.m., warning Erin could become a hurricane by Wednesday Aug. 13 and a major hurricane by Saturday, Aug. 16 as it moves quickly west across the Atlantic. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location AccuWeather forecasters are predicting Erin could turn north on a parallel path to Florida as it approaches the Caribbean. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Invest 96L is moving north in the central Atlantic and has a low chance for development. And a new system on NOAA's map is a non-tropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia. It also has a low chance for development. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 11 a.m., Aug. 11: Tropical Storm Erin develops in eastern Atlantic. Expected to become hurricane Invest 97L became Tropical Storm Erin Monday morning, with the National Hurricane Center issuing its first advisory on the system at 11 a.m. Aug. 11. Forecasters are predicting Erin will continue to strengthen as it moves quickly across the Atlantic, becoming a hurricane on Wednesday, Aug. 13, and a major hurricane with 115-mph winds by Saturday, Aug. 16. NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now? How likely are they to strengthen? Invest 96L: A weak trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over the next few days as the system drifts generally northward, remaining over the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent. Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent. Area of low pressure: A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited, this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its changes for further tropical development. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent. Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent. What is an invest? Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm. Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90. Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models. What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean? The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Erin? It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from Tropical Storm Erin. ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast Erin could bring an increase in rough surf and rip currents to the east coast next weekend and into early next week, even if it curves north, staying away from Florida and the U.S., according to AccuWeather. "The tropics remain quiet, and are likely to stay that way for another 10 days or more," said Ryan Truchelut on Aug. 9. "While there is hope the active peak months of hurricane season may not translate into another awful year in human terms, the reality is that U.S. hurricane impacts are likely and to be expected over the next few months." Truchelut is the chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger and works with the USA TODAY Network. Florida weather radar for Aug. 11, 2025 Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida When is the Atlantic hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. When is the peak of hurricane season? The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane names for 2025 season Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11. Andrea (June 20) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter: (Aug. 3) Erin: AIR-rin (Aug. 11) Fernand: fair-NAHN (historically forms Aug. 29) Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm? Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story has been updated to include new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NOAA tracking Tropical Storm Erin, Invest 96L, another system
USA Today
a day ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Storm tracker: Hurricane Henriette swirls in Pacific; cyclone possible in Atlantic
While Hurricane Henriette in the Pacific does not pose a threat to land, an area of low pressure in the Atlantic could soon form into a tropical depression or storm, forecasters said Monday, Aug. 11. "Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a well-defined low-pressure area located near the northwestern Cobo Verde Islands," the National Hurricane Center in Miami stated on its website. As of Aug. 11, a system, Invest 97L, located near the islands southwest of the coast of the Western Sahara in Africa, has a 70% chance of developing into a cyclone within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of developing into one in the next seven days. The National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts that it could become a tropical storm or depression as soon as the morning of Aug. 11, reported Naples Daily News, a part of the USA TODAY Network. However, another system, Invest 96L, has a low chance, 10%, of developing in the next 48 hours into a cyclone, and a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days. Storm tracker: Tracking storms in the Atlantic Spaghetti models for Invest 97L This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. What is happening in the Pacific? Hurricane Henriette, located north of Hawaii, is forecasted to remain a hurricane for several more days before dissipating into a storm and disappearing before it makes landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Tropical Depression Ivo, located west of Mexico, is also forecast to dissipate by Tuesday, Aug. 12, before making landfall. Storm tracker: Tracking storms in the Pacific When did the 2025 hurricane season begin? The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do to stay safe before a storm arrives Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida Julia is a trending reporter for USA TODAY. Connect with her on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and TikTok: @juliamariegz, or email her at jgomez@
Indianapolis Star
3 days ago
- Climate
- Indianapolis Star
Hurricane forecasters track Tropical Storm Ivo, Atlantic systems and more
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean – neither of which pose immediate risk to the United States – while Henriette and Ivo wax and wane in the Pacific Ocean. A tropical wave, called Invest 96L, dispensing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic, could gradually develop during the early or middle part of next week as the system moves northwestward to northward across the central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory on Saturday morning, Aug. 9. However, the NHC puts its likelihood of developing into a tropical depression at 20% over the next seven days. The hurricane center also said another tropical wave, off the west coast of Africa in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and could gradually develop into a tropical depression. The system is expected to deliver local heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across parts of the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC gives this system a higher chance of developing (40%) over the next seven days. Neither system is currently expected to develop soon or threaten land. That doesn't mean those who live along the U.S. coast should become complacent as an above-normal hurricane season is still expected. "The tropics remain quiet, and are likely to stay that way for another 10 days or more." said Ryan Truchelut, WeatherTiger meteorologist who provides regular hurricane season forecasts for the USA TODAY Network. "Still, we know well hurricane seasons can be nowhere to be found, then suddenly impossible to avoid. While there is hope the active peak months of hurricane season may not translate into another awful year in human terms, the reality is that U.S. hurricane impacts are likely and to be expected over the next few months." The NHC had expected both storms in the Pacific Ocean – Henriette and Ivo – to eventually develop into hurricanes. However, Henriette, located about 615 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, has become a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts. It is expected to become a tropical storm again by Sunday, but its northwesterly path will keep it north of Hawaii, the center said. Tropical Strom Ivo, which is about 220 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, is producing maximum sustained winds near 60 mph. But it is expected to weaken and become post-tropical by late Sunday, the NHC said. However, swells created by the storm will likely continue to create life-threatening surf and rip currents for the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. The term "tropical wave" describes atmospheric conditions, according to Tropical waves are elongated areas, or troughs, of relatively low pressure that move east to west across the tropics, moving westward from Africa into the Atlantic. A wave can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone, which in turn may develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do to stay safe before a storm arrives Contributing: John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network Mike Snider is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, X and email him at mikegsnider & @ & @mikesnider & msnider@
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Bryan Norcross: Large African disturbance has plenty of runway to develop by late next week
Updated Saturday 10 a.m. ET The National Hurricane Center is painting a large potential development area for the disturbance just moving off Africa. The disturbance is large and ill-defined, but it is showing some signs of a circulation, and it's carrying a lot of moisture. The strong consensus of the various computer forecasts is that it will continue in the general direction of the Caribbean for most of next week. Unlike the previous disturbance that was tagged Invest 96L, which is tracking north into the central Atlantic, blocking high pressure will keep this system moving basically east to west for several days. The big questions are: 1) When will it fight off the dust and dry air sufficiently to develop and organize circulation with sustained thunderstorms, and 2) How will the steering currents evolve next weekend and next week? The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that a slight dip in the jet stream will weaken the blocking high over the weekend, allowing the developing disturbance to lift north slightly. This will control how close the system comes to the northeastern Caribbean. Most computer forecasts show the system as at least a tropical storm at that time. Then after next weekend – too far in the future to be confident – a stronger jet stream dip and its accompanying cold front are forecast to approach the East Coast. The timing and strength of this blocking-high-weakening dip is critical because the strong consensus at the time is that it will turn the system north. It's too early to know. How quickly the storm intensifies is important because a stronger tropical system is more likely to be pulled north by the dip because the thunderstorms extend farther up into the atmosphere when the jet-stream steering can grab the storm. On the other hand, a system that develops more slowly would tend to travel farther west before turning north. Differences in the rate of intensification and the exact depth and nature of the jet stream dip account for the various long-range forecasts you see online. Because the evolution of these details is unknowable, precisely forecasting a track a week or more from now is impossible. Online posts showing an extreme storm impacting some part of the coast are only there to get clicks. There is no news or information in those single scenario maps. What we know is that the weather pattern over the Atlantic from the Caribbean islands to the southeast US is forecast to be conducive for the system to organize and strengthen. Enough long-range forecasts show a hurricane developing that we can say with confidence that there's a good chance we'll see Hurricane Erin out of this. But since many of the potential tracks turn north offshore of the East Coast, there's no reason to focus on any one location for impacts. As we go through next week, if the system becomes better defined like the consensus of the forecasts indicates, we'll have more confidence in what the computer projections are telling us. The National Hurricane Center is still tracking Invest 96L. They have lowered the odds into the low range that it will develop into a tropical depression. In any case, it won't be a threat to land. The small system offshore of the Carolinas has been absorbed by a cold front and is not a article source: Bryan Norcross: Large African disturbance has plenty of runway to develop by late next week Solve the daily Crossword
USA Today
3 days ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Hurricane forecasters track Tropical Storm Ivo, Atlantic systems and more
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean – neither of which pose immediate risk to the United States – while Henriette and Ivo wax and wane in the Pacific Ocean. A tropical wave, called Invest 96L, dispensing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic, could gradually develop during the early or middle part of next week as the system moves northwestward to northward across the central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory on Saturday morning, Aug. 9. However, the NHC puts its likelihood of developing into a tropical depression at 20% over the next seven days. The hurricane center also said another tropical wave, off the west coast of Africa in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and could gradually develop into a tropical depression. The system is expected to deliver local heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across parts of the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC gives this system a higher chance of developing (40%) over the next seven days. Neither system is currently expected to develop soon or threaten land. That doesn't mean those who live along the U.S. coast should become complacent as an above-normal hurricane season is still expected. "The tropics remain quiet, and are likely to stay that way for another 10 days or more." said Ryan Truchelut, WeatherTiger meteorologist who provides regular hurricane season forecasts for the USA TODAY Network. "Still, we know well hurricane seasons can be nowhere to be found, then suddenly impossible to avoid. While there is hope the active peak months of hurricane season may not translate into another awful year in human terms, the reality is that U.S. hurricane impacts are likely and to be expected over the next few months." Henriette and Ivo in the Pacific The NHC had expected both storms in the Pacific Ocean – Henriette and Ivo – to eventually develop into hurricanes. However, Henriette, located about 615 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, has become a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts. It is expected to become a tropical storm again by Sunday, but its northwesterly path will keep it north of Hawaii, the center said. Tropical Strom Ivo, which is about 220 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, is producing maximum sustained winds near 60 mph. But it is expected to weaken and become post-tropical by late Sunday, the NHC said. However, swells created by the storm will likely continue to create life-threatening surf and rip currents for the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. What is a tropical wave? The term "tropical wave" describes atmospheric conditions, according to Tropical waves are elongated areas, or troughs, of relatively low pressure that move east to west across the tropics, moving westward from Africa into the Atlantic. A wave can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone, which in turn may develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do to stay safe before a storm arrives Contributing: John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network Mike Snider is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, X and email him at mikegsnider & @ & @mikesnider & msnider@ What's everyone talking about? Sign up for our trending newsletter to get the latest news of the day
