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First Post
3 days ago
- Business
- First Post
E3-Iran nuclear talks: Slim chances for a second deal
Also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015 by Iran and the E3 plus China, Russia, and the United States. Image: REUTERS Friday morning Iran resumed nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany (also called Europe's E3), which are parties to its 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had codified a 3.7 per cent limit for Iran's uranium enrichment and a waiver of sanctions on Iran. But whether resumption of E3-Iran talks can facilitate revival of US-Iran talks leading to crafting a JCPOA 2.0 has serious limits so far. Prima facie, this second round of E3-Iran talks at Iran's Consulate in Istanbul continuing for four hours on Friday morning seems like a good sign for a start. The Iranian side was represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who said they had a frank, serious, and detailed discussion and 'agreed that consultations on this matter will continue'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Only that the JCPOA is due to expire in less than three months on October 18. The fundamental leverage that E3 has is to 'snap back' sanctions under the JCPOA, but it must start any such effort at least 30 days in advance, which leaves it with even less time. Then beyond the US, they will also have to deal with China and Russia. JCPOA Under Stress Also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the JCPOA was signed in 2015 by Iran and the E3 plus China, Russia, and the United States. But cracks in the JCPOA had begun early on when, in 2018, during President Trump's first term in office, the US had walked out of the JCPOA. Iran, in response, had also begun to roll back on its commitments on uranium enrichment, accusing others of not complying with their part of the JCPOA provisions. The March 2025 report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had concluded that Iran had reached a high level of 60 per cent uranium enrichment. Compared to its agreed 3.7 per cent uranium enrichment under JCPOA, this is much closer to weapon-grade uranium enrichment of 95 per cent. The IAEA report also reported Iran having already compiled a stockpile of 400 kg of such uranium. According to the Israeli spy agency Mossad, Iran was in position to make a nuclear bomb in 15 days time. These revelations of the IAEA coming in the midst of Israel's continuing war with Hamas and Hezbollah—also known as Iran's proxies in the region—had alarmed Western powers. The Trump presidency had responded to it by immediately initiating talks with Iran from April while keeping maximum pressure by supporting aggressive Israeli military operations. In fact these talks had witnessed an unusual hectic pace with five rounds in just two months: three in Muscat followed by two in Rome. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD US-Israeli Airstrikes It is interesting to note that the sixth round of the US-Iran talks was scheduled for 15 June at Muscat. These were suddenly scuttled due to Israeli air attacks on Iran on June 13. More startling was the fact that this was followed by American attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Nantaz, disrupting their nuclear talks. President Trump had claimed to have 'obliterated' Iranian nuclear facilities. But American media has since questioned this assessment, thereby putting pressure for revival of talks. In fact, along with the US-Iran talks, the E3 had also initiated talks with Iran. They held their first round in Istanbul on May 16. But following US-Israeli air strikes on Iran, the E3 had also threatened Iran with triggering 'snapback' sanctions as per the JCPOA unless Iran ensured substantial progress in talks before the end of August. This E3 ultimatum was driven partly by their limited window of less than three months' time when their option of snapback sanctions under JCPOA will expire on October 18. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Any attempt at imposing sanctions on Iran later through the UN Security Council will face Iran's friends, China and Russia, using vetoes to block any such action. Both China and Russia have condemned US-Israeli air strikes on Iran and remain opposed to unilateral sanctions. Besides, Iran has called this E3 ultimatum a breach of their May 16 Istanbul talks, which had agreed to continue consultations. Hardening Preconditions Following these US-Israeli attacks and the E3 ultimatum, Iran has refused to cooperate with the IAEA, criticising it for bias and for not condemning these strikes on its nuclear facilities. Iran had accordingly asked IAEA inspectors to leave the country and even threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who recently told Fox News that their enrichment was currently 'stopped' due to 'serious and severe' damage to their nuclear sites, also underlined that 'Iran's position remains unshakeable and that our uranium enrichment will continue'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran has since reinforced its preconditions that any talks must only focus on size and levels and not on its option for uranium enrichment. That these talks will also not include other issues like its ballistic missiles or so-called proxies in the region. The US, which sees these preconditions as red lines, remains divided, with its chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, asking Iran to return to the JCPOA-agreed limit of 3.7 per cent enrichment, while President Trump has been talking of complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. Even in the face of media assessments to the contrary of President Trump's claims, he has persisted with his belief that he has 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear facilities and is in no hurry to resume talks with Iran. At the same time, Trump has shown increasing discomfort with Prime Minister Netanyahu for not agreeing to an early end to his war in Gaza, which has killed over 56,000 Palestinians. In the midst of raised tempers, negotiations have less chance of success. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Way Forward So the basic purpose of E3-Iran talks therefore remains breaking ice in this increasingly difficult impasse. To begin with, they seek to revive an early resumption of the US-Iran talks. This is the only way to ensure continuation of JCPOA arrangements beyond October 18. But in the face of both the US and Iran digging their heels deeper, the E3, in fact, could become increasingly vulnerable. And they also have to deal with China and Russia. Iran has reasons to suspect its interlocutors. PM Netanyahu is increasingly seen defying President Trump, and both have threatened to resume strikes on Iran. In spite of its hectic five rounds of talks with the US plus one round of talks with E3, the Israeli offensive had killed several of Iran's top commanders and nuclear scientists. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has been urging E3 to trigger this snapback mechanism. While the JCPOA 2.0 may be a tall order, the only positive sign is Iran opening dialogue with the IAEA in the 'next few weeks' to explore possibilities for their return to Iran to resume their nuclear monitoring work. IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi said last Friday—as E3 were negotiating with Iran in Istanbul—that he is hopeful of 'starting on technical details and, later on, moving on to high-level consultations' without pushing for inspections as yet. This may not have received much media attention, but this technical approach to a political problem could be a more pragmatic way to deal with the current impasse. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The author is professor of International Relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
Al Bawaba
4 days ago
- Politics
- Al Bawaba
Iranian official calls for Trump's assassination, claiming legal and religious justification
ALBAWABA - A well-known Iranian politician caused a stir around the world when he openly called for the killing of former U.S. President Donald Trump, saying that it was both legal and religiously right to do so. The offensive comments were made by Mohammad Javad Larijani, who is currently the head of the Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences and used to be the top official in Iran's court. He said them at a mourning event in Tehran for the victims of a recent Israeli rocket strike. Larijani said that Trump is a "legitimate target" because of what he called "institutional terrorism" in the United States against Iran. He backed up what he said with fatwas from more than 400 preachers that supposedly support the move. Later, in a TV interview, Larijani said it again: "Trump can't lie in the sun at Mar-a-Lago anymore..." It's that easy for a small drone to hit him. People all over the world quickly criticized what he said, and Trump even responded with sarcasm: "I haven't been in the sun since I was seven." "I'm not sure if that was a threat." The comments come at a time when emotions are high between Washington and Tehran. The Iran nuclear deal is still on hold, and battles in the region are getting worse. Analysts say that this kind of talk from high-level officials could lead to more open conflict between the two countries and hurt efforts to mediate diplomatically. Javad Larijani, senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, says that targeting Trump is both legally and religiously justified. He claimed the U.S. has pursued a policy of assassinating political, military, and scientific figures, making retaliation against Trump legitimate. — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) July 25, 2025 Larijani is known for being close to powerful people in Iran. He used to be Iran's spokesman in the court for human rights problems. His latest words show a big change toward stubborn resistance. Some experts see this as a sign that the Iranian government is under more and more pressure from within, and they see it as a move away from negotiation and toward conflict.
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Shocking Putin Twist In Iran-U.S. Nuclear Deal; Russia Erupts
Russia has dismissed a US media report alleging that President Putin urged Iran to accept a nuclear deal eliminating its right to enrich uranium. The Russian Foreign Ministry blasted the report as fake news aimed at escalating regional tensions and labeled the outlet Axios as a propaganda tool. While Axios cited unnamed Western officials, Tehran denied receiving any such message. Iran continues to reject demands for zero enrichment, maintaining its nuclear program is peaceful.#russia #putin #unitedstates #USA #Iran #trump #donaldtrump #IranNuclearDeal #JCPOA #USIranTalks #NuclearDiplomacy #MiddleEastPolitics Read More
CTV News
03-07-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
France says Iran sanctions decision depends on detainees' release
Jean-Noel Barrot, France's digital transition and telecommunication minister, during the LaRef conference in Paris, France. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg France said on Thursday it would decide whether to reimpose sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program depending on whether Tehran released two French detainees charged with spying for Israel. 'Freeing Cecile Kohler and Jacques Paris is an absolute priority for us,' Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said. 'We have always told our interlocutors from the Iranian regime that any decisions on sanctions will be conditional on resolving this issue.' Iran officially suspended its cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog on Wednesday. The move came after a 12-day conflict last month between Iran and Israel, which saw unprecedented Israeli and US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and sharply escalated tensions between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The United States and other Western countries, along with Israel, accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon. Tehran denies that, but has gradually broken away from its commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers, after the United States pulled out of it in 2018. Israel has maintained ambiguity about its own atomic arsenal, neither officially confirming nor denying it exists, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates its arsenal amounts to 90 nuclear warheads. The landmark 2015 Iran nuclear deal provided Tehran with sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its atomic program to be monitored by the UN nuclear watchdog. The deal included the possibility of UN sanctions being reimposed through a mechanism called 'snapback' if Iran failed to fulfil its commitments, an option that expires in October. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has urged European signatories of the 2015 deal to trigger the 'snapback' mechanism and reinstate all UN sanctions on Iran. Kohler, 40, and Paris, her 72-year-old partner, have been held in Iran since May 2022 on espionage charges their families reject. But Iran has now charged the pair with spying for Israel's intelligence agency Mossad, diplomatic and family sources told AFP on Wednesday. They were also accused of 'corruption of Earth' and 'plotting to overthrow the regime', the sources said. All three charges carry the death penalty. Tehran has not confirmed the new charges. A French diplomatic source described the allegations as 'completely unfounded'. Iran is believed to hold around 20 European nationals, many of whose cases have never been publicised, in what some Western governments including France describe as a strategy of hostage-taking aimed at extracting concessions from the West. Three other Europeans, who have not been identified, have also been arrested in the wake of the current conflict, two of whom are accused of spying for Israel, according to the authorities.
National Post
03-07-2025
- Politics
- National Post
Iran suspends cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog 'until certain conditions are met'
Article content 'Iran has just issued a scandalous announcement about suspending its cooperation with the IAEA,' he said in an X post. 'This is a complete renunciation of all its international nuclear obligations and commitments.' Article content Saar urged European nations that were part of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal to implement its so-called snapback clause. That would reimpose all UN sanctions on it originally lifted by Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, if one of its Western parties declares the Islamic Republic is out of compliance with it. Article content Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East, and the IAEA doesn't have access to its weapons-related facilities. Article content Tammy Bruce, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, separately said it was 'unacceptable that Iran chose to suspend cooperation with the IAEA at a time when it has a window of opportunity to reverse course and choose a path of peace and prosperity.' Article content Iran's move so far stops short of what experts feared the most. They had been concerned that Tehran, in response to the war, could decide to fully end its cooperation with the IAEA, abandon the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and rush toward a bomb. That treaty has countries agree not to build or obtain nuclear weapons and allows the IAEA to conduct inspections to verify that countries correctly declared their programs. Article content Iran's 2015 nuclear deal allowed Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67 per cent — enough to fuel a nuclear power plant, but far below the threshold of 90 per cent needed for weapons-grade uranium. It also drastically reduced Iran's stockpile of uranium, limited its use of centrifuges and relied on the IAEA to oversee Tehran's compliance through additional oversight. The IAEA served as the main assessor of Iran's commitment to the deal. Article content But Trump, in his first term in 2018, unilaterally withdrew Washington from the accord, insisting it wasn't tough enough and didn't address Iran's missile program or its support for militant groups in the wider Middle East. That set in motion years of tensions, including attacks at sea and on land. Article content Iran had been enriching up to 60 per cent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels. It also has enough of a stockpile to build multiple nuclear bombs, should it choose to do so. Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the IAEA, Western intelligence agencies and others say Tehran had an organized weapons program up until 2003. Article content Article content Israeli airstrikes, which began June 13, decimated the upper ranks of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard and targeted its arsenal of ballistic missiles. The strikes also hit Iran's nuclear sites, which Israel claimed put Tehran within reach of a nuclear weapon. Article content Iran has said the Israeli attacks killed 935 'Iranian citizens,' including 38 children and 102 women. However, Iran has a long history of offering lower death counts around unrest over political considerations. Article content The Washington-based Human Rights Activists group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from multiple rounds of unrest in Iran, has put the death toll at 1,190 people killed, including 436 civilians and 435 security force members. The attacks wounded another 4,475 people, the group said. Article content U.S. intelligence suggests the facilities were 'completely obliterated' by the strikes, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told reporters Wednesday in a briefing, repeating the Trump administration's assertion.
