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Toronto Sun
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Toronto Sun
Military bases or vital waterway?: Iran weighs response to U.S. strikes
Disrupting traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz would send energy prices soaring in a global inflationary shock Published Jun 23, 2025 • 3 minute read Iranian Army Media Office/AFP Photo by - / Iranian Army Media Office/AFP Iran has vowed to retaliate for U.S. air strikes on its nuclear facilities, and has two main options: Attacking American forces in the region, and closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account An advisor to Iran's supreme leader issued a warning on Sunday, saying any U.S. base in the region that takes part in attacks was a 'legitimate target.' Disrupting traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas, would send energy prices soaring in a global inflationary shock. Closing the waterway would be 'extremely dangerous,' Kaja Kallas, the European Union's top diplomat, said on Monday. AFP looks at the two scenarios and their possible implications. – Strait of Hormuz – Infographic showing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz by origin and destination countries for the first quarter of 2025, according to data from the US Energy Information AdministrationJonathan WALTER, Valentina BRESCHI/AFP Photo by Jonathan WALTER, Valentina BRESCHI / AFP The narrow, U-shaped seaway snaking between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula is the gateway for Gulf energy shipments to global markets, carrying one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Closing the 50-kilometre (30-mile) wide channel could spike oil to $120 a barrel, according to Deutsche Bank research, raising prices of transport, food and utilities around the world. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'It's in the best interest of all Middle Eastern countries to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and prevent any supply disruption,' Rystad Energy senior analyst Lu Ming Pang wrote last week. Currently, traders do not appear too concerned. Brent crude was trading at $76 on Monday, little changed from Friday's close. 'Looking at the oil price this morning, it is clear that the oil market doesn't assign a very high probability of (a closure) happening,' said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB bank. The big question is whether Iran is prepared to detonate this economic hand-grenade. Despite threats in the past, including in 2011 as oil sanctions loomed, it has not pulled the pin. Infographic with map of the Strait of Hormuz showing the width, the water depth, the refineries and the liquified natural gas terminals in the areaNalini LEPETIT-CHELLA, Omar KAMAL/AFP Photo by Nalini LEPETIT-CHELLA, Omar KAMAL / AFP According to a senior European official, the Iranians do not have the means to block the strait 'long-term', but they could hamper shipping. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. But 'it would be a form of suicide to do that,' the official said. 'The effect on Israel would be close to zero, the effect on themselves immense, as well as on the United States, Europe and China.' Iranian forces have nearly 200 fast patrol boats that can fire anti-ship missiles or torpedoes, plus mine-laying vessels, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But the US Fifth Fleet, a major naval force, is stationed across the Gulf in Bahrain, and Iran remains under daily fire from Israeli warplanes and drones. Iran's own energy exports, in spite of sanctions, remain an important source of income for the world's ninth-biggest oil-producing country. – U.S. bases – With United States military bases spread around the Gulf countries to Iran's west, there is no shortage of potential targets. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Kuwait, in a legacy of the 1990 Gulf war, houses about 13,500 U.S. forces, while the biggest U.S. base in the region is Al Udeid in Qatar. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, covering the Gulf, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean, is based in Bahrain, and about 3,500 U.S. personnel are stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and US President Donald Trump at the Al Udeid air base, the largest US military facility in the regionBrendan SMIALOWSKI/AFP/File Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP/File Increased U.S. involvement in the Iran-Israel war risks attacks 'on U.S. interests, U.S. bases and such across the region', said Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at Chatham House. 'The U.S. attack on Iran has now meant that this war is between Israel, the United States and Iran, which means that across the region, Iran may seek to target the U.S.,' he added. However, this option is also fraught for Iran as it risks isolating itself from the powerful Gulf monarchies that enjoy good relations with Washington. 'Tehran is unlikely to strike Gulf Arab states,' said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London. 'Even as it sees the UAE and Saudi Arabia as quiet enablers of the U.S.-Israeli axis, Iran understands that any attack on their soil would likely unify them against it and open the door for greater American military presence. 'Instead, Iran may issue veiled warnings to these states, use regional proxies to pressure them, or engage in cyber or intelligence disruptions targeting their interests — maintaining plausible deniability while raising the cost of involvement.' Toronto & GTA Toronto Maple Leafs NBA Sunshine Girls MLB

Mercury
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Mercury
Israel-Iran conflict: Israeli drone downed and smashed in Iran
Don't miss out on the headlines from World. Followed categories will be added to My News. As a deadly aerial war rages between Israel and Iran for a ninth consecutive day, one image has highlighted the evolving face of modern warfare. Long-simmering tensions between the two nations came to a head on June 13 when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, deploying drones and jets in a blistering air campaign aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons – an ambition it denies. Iran struck back, launching over 100 drones towards Israel, almost 1500 kilometres away. In the nine days since, hundreds of missiles and drones have been exchanged between the two countries, with some successfully managing to break through Israel's Iron Dome – one of the most sophisticated air defence systems in the world. An unnamed Israeli military official told AFP on Wednesday Iran had fired around 400 ballistic missiles and 1000 drones since Friday. This week, Iranian armed forces released a photo claiming to show a smashed Israeli drone after it had been downed in the central Iranian city of Isfahan by a surface-to-air missile. The photo showed the reality of drone use in modern warfare - with the large and mechanically complex aircraft arguably different to what most Australians may imagine. The drone was downed in the Iranian city of Isfahan. Picture: Iranian Army Media Office / AFP It had been hit by a surface-to-air missile. Picture: Iranian Army Media Office / AFP In a statement on Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the done 'fell in Iran' and said no injuries had been reported. 'There is no risk of an information breach,' it added. The IDF confirmed the done 'fell in Iran'. Picture: Iranian Armed Forces via AP The drone appeared large and very mechanically complex. Picture: Iranian Armed Forces via AP Israel smuggles drones into Iran Before launching its surprise attack, Israel reportedly spent months smuggling drones into Iran. Unnamed sources familiar with the operation told the Wall Street Journal the drones were hidden in trucks, shipping containers and even suitcases. 'When Israel's attack began, some of the teams took out air defences, while others hit missile launchers as they rolled out of their shelters and set up to fire,' the publication reported, citing one of the sources. The operation worked. By dismantling air defence systems, Israel had 'managed to establish air superiority over western parts of Iran and Tehran within days,' Dr Oleksandra Molloy, a Senior Lecturer in Aviation at the University of NSW (Canberra) told Since then, Dr Molloy said Israel has been largely relying on air power 'like the fleet of fighter jets, including F-35i, F-15, F-16 and launching air-to-ground long-range missiles and glide bombs striking Iranian air defence systems'. Iran comparatively has 'relatively weaker fighters' fleet, both in quantity and quality,' she said. 'Most of the Iranian fighters are Russian MIG-29 and Sukhoi aircraft, as well as 1979 American made ones, F-5B, F-5E, F-5F, and F-14 Tomcats.' But while Iranian jets are far behind the 'sophisticated capabilities of Israeli jets', Dr Molloy said the country has a 'strong arsenal of ballistic cruise missiles'. 'Hence, Iran is using both drones and missiles to strike Israel.' Iran Shahed's drones Since the start of the conflict, Dr Molloy said Iran's drone strategy has been to 'saturate Israeli air defence networks and confuse radar operations'. During its campaign, the nation has been using its homemade Shahed drones, which it has sent to Russia to fight its war in Ukraine. The noisy drones – which have been nicknamed 'flying mopeds', cost between $US20,000 to $US50,000 ($31,000 to $77,250), according to Scientific American. Dr Molloy said Iran has been using a variety of Shahed's ranging from 'one-way suicide drones or combat UAVs and long-range, multi-mission platform', as well as 'Arash-2, long-range loitering munition, capable of striking high-value targets'. One of the drones – the Shahed 136 – stretches 3.5m long and has a 2.5m wingspan. Lightweight, it is comprised of mostly foam and plywood, and has a range of more than 1500 miles (2414km). A Shahed drone lies on the ground after a Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. Picture: AP Photo/Kateryna Klochko Ukraines spiderweb drone assault Drones are becoming increasingly popular in modern warfare. 'Drone use has been extensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Russo-Ukraine, Syria, Iraq against ISIS, Gaza, the Hezbollah Israel war in 2024 and now,' Associate Professor Ahmed Hashim, an expert in war studies in the Middle East for Deakin University, told But while drones are cost-effective, and can be used for a range of purposes from surveillance to targeted strikes, Dr Hashim noted 'long-distance drones are slow and provide the target with plenty of warning time'. He said drones are more potent when used with infiltration by special teams such as in Ukraine's 'Spider Web' assault earlier this month. The assault, which took 18 months to plan and execute, saw Ukraine smuggle drones across the Russian border hidden in trucks, which then drove to the sites of military bases. Footage shows drone after drone hammering Russia's nuclear bomber fleet. Picture: Security Service of Ukraine At a co-ordinated moment, the trucks released their drones, which then attack while being controlled remotely. 'Planning, organisation, every detail was perfectly executed. It can be said with confidence that this was an absolutely unique operation,' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said after the assault. In the immediate aftermath of the operation, Ukraine's security forces claimed to have taken out about a third of Russia's strategic bombers, partially crippling Vladimir Putin's capacity to launch long-distance missile strikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 'every detail was perfectly executed' in his 'Spider Web' attack on Russia this month. Picture: Security Service of Ukraine Lieutenant General Vasyl Malyuk, head of the Security Service, puts the tally at 41 aircraft, encompassing both Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers. According to American military correspondent David Axe, the Ukrainian attacks on Russian bases appeared to have diminished Russia's already dwindling supply of A-50s – an expensive type of surveillance aircraft, equipped with a powerful radar, whose chief purpose is to co-ordinate operations involving fighter jets and bombers. Drones changing the battlefield In recent years, Dr Molloy said drones have transitioned from being an 'observer in the skies for surveillance an reconnaissance' to 'an active combatant'. 'The UAVs used in the war in Ukraine has altered the dynamics of military operations, offering unique tactical advantages and enhanced the operational efficiency in various combat scenarios,' she said. The remains of a drone that fell in Syria on June 14, 2025. Picture: Sam Hariri/AFP She believes drones will play a part in the future of warfare, with other nations inevitably having to adopt and invest in both crewed and unscrewed systems. 'Depending on the context of operations, uncrewed systems provide an asymmetric advantage over more expensive asset, and combined with sophisticated systems on board, well-trained operators and continuously evolving tactics, successes will be seen,' she said. 'The future of modern warfare will see a combination of sophisticated technologies, various tactics of operation, and excellent intelligence. These include stealth sophisticated fighter jets, missiles and drones, as well as layered defence systems to protect against them.' While Dr Hashim doesn't think drones are the future of warfare, he agrees they are 'important and are going to be critical to any arsenal'. '(Drones) are part of a growing basket of emerging disruptive technologies that are changing the character of warfare such as Artificial Intelligence.' Originally published as Drones rain down in Israel-Iran