Latest news with #IranianCommanders
Al Jazeera
10 hours ago
- Business
- Al Jazeera
Can the Israeli and Iranian economies survive a war?
As Israel and Iran carry out strikes against each other for a seventh straight day, the region is anxiously bracing for a potentially wider conflict. But question marks remain over the two sides' ability to finance a sustained war effort. On Friday, Israel killed several of Iran's top military commanders and nuclear scientists and damaged some of its nuclear sites. It has since damaged parts of Iran's fossil fuel sector. In response, Iran has launched missile attacks at government buildings and metropolitan areas in Israel. As of Thursday, the Israeli attacks have killed 240 people while Iranian strikes have killed at least 24 people. But the conflict is also costing both nations billions of dollars and could choke their economic growth and trigger concerns over long-term fiscal planning. Israel's prolonged military operations in Gaza since October 2023 and the recent escalation with Iran have plunged the country into the most expensive period of conflict in its history. According to a January report by the Israeli business newspaper Calcalist, the cumulative cost of the Gaza war alone had reached 250 billion shekels ($67.5bn) by the end of 2024. A June 15 report by the Israeli news outlet Ynet News, quoting a former financial adviser to the Israeli military's chief of staff, estimated that the first two days of fighting with Iran alone cost Israel 5.5 billion shekels (roughly $1.45bn). At that rate, a prolonged conflict with Iran could see Israel surpass the end-2024 Gaza war expenses within seven weeks. Even before the current escalation with Iran, Israel had dramatically increased its defence budget amid its multiple regional conflicts and the war on Gaza. From 60 billion shekels ($17bn) in 2023, it grew to 99 billion ($28bn) in 2024. Projections for 2025 suggest it could reach 118 billion shekels ($34bn). The Ministry of Finance set a deficit ceiling of 4.9 percent of Israel's gross domestic product (GDP) for this fiscal year, equating to 105 billion shekels ($27.6bn). Higher military spending would put that to the test. Despite a recent increase in projected tax revenues – from 517 billion to 539 billion shekels ($148bn to $154bn) – Israel's 2025 growth forecast has been revised down from 4.3 to 3.6 percent. According to the business survey company CofaceBDI, roughly 60,000 Israeli companies closed in 2024 due to manpower shortages, logistics disruptions and subdued business sentiment. In addition, tourist arrivals continue to fall short of pre-October 2023 levels. Those trends could be aggravated in the event of a full-fledged war with Iran. S&P Global Ratings issued a stark warning about the vulnerability of the Israeli economy on Tuesday. The agency stated that a continued Israeli war campaign, particularly if met with a sustained and strategic Iranian response, could lead to a downgrade of Israel's credit rating from A to A-. Were that to happen, it would likely raise borrowing costs and soften investor confidence in the Israeli economy. In recent days, Iran's oil exports appear to have fallen dramatically. Total Iranian crude and condensate oil exports are forecast to reach 102,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending on Sunday. That's less than half the 242,000 bpd it was averaging in exports this year, according to data from the analytics firm Kpler. Critically, exports from Kharg Island, from which Iran exports more than 90 percent of its oil, appear to have completely halted since Friday. No tankers were anchored at Kharg Island on Monday, according to LSEG satellite ship tracking data. In 2025, Iran has produced an average of 3.4 million bpd of crude, according to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), with China appearing to be the main foreign buyer. Most of the oil Iran produces is for domestic consumption. On Saturday, Iran partially suspended gas production at the South Pars gasfield in the Gulf after it was hit by Israeli missiles. South Pars, which Iran shares with Qatar, is the world's biggest gasfield. It produces about 80 percent of Iran's total gas output. For now, the extent of the damage to the South Pars field is unknown. In addition, Israel has targeted the Shahr Rey refinery outside Tehran as well as fuel depots around the capital. The full impact of these strikes on production is unknown. Iran has faced economic sanctions from the US after the Islamic Revolution and the US embassy hostage crisis in 1979 and then over its nuclear programme. In a bid to pressure Tehran to agree to a deal on its nuclear programme, the administration of then-US President Barack Obama coaxed multiple major economies around the world to cut down or stop their oil purchases from Iran, using a wave of additional sanctions. Those sanctions were relaxed after Iran struck the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal in 2015 with the US, Russia, China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union. The following year, Iran exported 2.8 million bpd of petroleum products. But US President Donald Trump reimposed the sanctions in 2018 during his first term as president and added more, again pressuring most other nations to stop buying Iranian crude. The result, according to the EIA, was that Tehran generated only $50bn in oil export revenue in 2022 and 2023, which amounts to roughly 200,000 bpd of crude exports, less than 10 percent of 2016 levels. The upshot is that sanctions have gutted Iran's foreign exchange earnings. Iran has staved off economic collapse in part thanks to China, the main buyer of its oil and one of the few nations still trading with Tehran. Still, the loss of revenue because of the sanctions has deprived the country of long-term economic development and has hit Tehran's ability to fix dilapidated infrastructure. President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly highlighted the severity of the economic situation facing the country, stating that Tehran's situation is more challenging than during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. In March, he openly criticised the latest round of US sanctions targeting tankers carrying Iranian oil. Iran also faces a string of other constraints – energy and water shortages, a collapsing currency and military setbacks among its regional allies – all amplified by the sanctions. A lack of investment, declining natural gas production and inefficient irrigation are all leading to power blackouts and water shortages. Meanwhile, the rial, Iran's currency, has shed more than 90 percent of its value against the dollar since the sanctions were reimposed in 2018, according to foreign exchange websites. And while the official inflation rate hovers around 40 percent, some Iranian experts said it is actually running at more than 50 percent. 'Precise numbers are hard to come by,' said Hamzeh Al Gaaod, an economic analyst at TS Lombard, a political research firm. 'But what we can say is that years of sanctions have triggered inflationary pressure, including through devaluations of the rial. In turn, that makes goods imports from abroad more expensive,' Al Gaaod told Al Jazeera. In January, the Tasnim news agency quoted the head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, as saying 22 to 27 percent of Iranians were now below the poverty line. Unemployment is running at 9.2 percent. However, Iran's Supreme Assembly of Workers' Representatives, which represents labour interests, estimated the true figure of people without access to subsistence-level work is far higher. According to Al Gaaod, Tehran has a 'relatively small budget for military purposes'. He estimated that anywhere from 3 to 5 percent of Iran's GDP is spent on defence, which amounts to roughly $12bn. Tehran does have $33bn in foreign exchange reserves it could theoretically draw on. But Al Gaaod said: 'This is where Iran is on the backfoot. To use reserves for short-term military conflict would cripple them over the longer term.' 'We've seen a 'rally under the flag' sentiment in recent days. But if Iran experiences more strikes and civilian evacuations, that could easily unwind,' he said.
Washington Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- Washington Post
Russia fears Israel's war on Iran could cost it another Mideast ally
As the direct conflict between Israel and Iran stretches into its fourth day, members of the Russian establishment are coming to the realization that it could destroy the country's closest ally in the Middle East — the second to fall in less than a year. When Israel began bombarding Iran's nuclear facilities early Friday and killing its commanders, some in the Moscow elite initially saw it as an opportunity for Russia.
Sky News
5 days ago
- Politics
- Sky News
Israel-Iran live: UK 'moving jets' to Middle East, says Starmer - after Iran issues threat to Britain if it helps stop strikes on Israel
More than 20 Iranian commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes on Iran, the IDF has said in its latest update. The military claimed that Israeli fighter jets killed both the head of the Intelligence Directorate in the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff and the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's (IRGC) surface-to-surface missile array. It added: "Since the beginning of the operation, over 20 commanders in the Iranian regime's security apparatus have been eliminated." According to the IDF, the head of the Intelligence Directorate in the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff, Gholam-Reza Marhabi, was responsible for intelligence situational assessments for the Iranian Armed Forces and was considered Iran's most senior intelligence officer. The statement added: "Marhabi played a key role in intelligence evaluations, operational planning, and combat preparations against Israel in the past year and before." The commander of the IRGC's surface-to-surface missile array, General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, oversaw most of Iran's long-range surface-to-surface and cruise missile capabilities, according to the IDF. "These capabilities serve as the regime's primary offensive tools against the State of Israel. "Bagheri managed Iran's firepower systems and played an active role in the decision-making processes behind Iran's attacks on Israel in April and October 2024."
CNN
6 days ago
- Politics
- CNN
Israel's unprecedented attack shows Iran has become a ‘playground' for the Mossad
Before Israel launched an unprecedented wave of strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and top military leaders this week, its spies were already on the ground in enemy territory. Israeli intelligence agency Mossad had smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the strikes, according to Israeli security officials, and would use the weapons to target Iran's defense from within. The officials said Israel established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, and the drones were later used to target missile launchers near Tehran. Precision weapons were also smuggled in and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel's Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time. The plan to disable Iranian defenses seems to have been effective; Israel said all of its aircraft returned safely from the first waves of strikes, appearing to show Israeli air superiority over parts of a country hundreds of miles away. Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also gave Israel's air force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists. In an incredibly rare move, the Mossad released video from some of its operations, showing drones attacking what appear to be unsuspecting missile launchers. It is the latest operation to show how deeply Israel's intelligence services, including the Mossad, have penetrated some of Iran's most closely guarded secrets. The operations have made the Mossad appear a nearly unstoppable force in Iran, capable of hitting at some of its highest-ranking officials and most sensitive sites. 'Mossad has treated Iran like its playground for years now,' said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist newsletter. 'From assassinating top nuclear scientists to sabotaging Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel has proved time and time again that it has always had the upper hand in this shadow war that has now been playing out in the open since the first tit-for-tat strikes in April 2024.' An Israeli security source said the latest operation required commando forces operating deep within Tehran and across the country while avoiding detection from Iran's security and intelligence agencies. The source said Mossad teams targeted air defense missiles, ballistic missiles, and missile launchers as the attack from the Israeli Air Force began. A second Israeli security source said the Mossad operations were years in the making, involving both intelligence-gathering efforts and the deployment of Mossad commandos deep behind enemy lines. Some of the Mossad commando forces operated in the Iranian capital itself, according to the security source. In addition to the drone base established by the Mossad long before Wednesday's attack, Mossad commandos deployed 'precision-guided weapons systems' near Iranian missile air defense systems, which were activated at the same time as the Israeli air force began striking its targets. A second operation deployed sophisticated vehicle-mounted weaponry to target other Iranian defense systems. The Mossad operation also involved assassinations of top Iranian officials. Israel has shown – flaunted even – the Mossad's ability to operate with near impunity in Iran in the past. Starting in the early-2010s, Iran accused Israel of carrying out a campaign of assassinations against the country's nuclear scientists. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon tacitly acknowledged the targeted killings when he said in 2015 that Israel cannot be held responsible 'for the life expectancy of Iran's nuclear scientists.' From 2007 to 2012 Israel allegedly carried out five covert assassinations, nearly all in Tehran, through remote-controlled bombings, or remote-controlled machine guns. Only one of Iran's key nuclear scientists survived the assassination attempt, Fereydoon Abbasi. Just last month, Abbasi told Iranian state media that any attack on production sites would have little impact on the timeline of developing a bomb, saying, 'our capabilities are spread all over the country. If they target production sites, it will be inconsequential to our timetable, because our nuclear materials are not stored above ground for them to hit.' Abbasi was one of the scientists killed in Israel's early morning attack in Tehran. The Mossad's actions soon became much more public. In early-2018, Israel stole Iran's nuclear archive from Tehran, displaying the intelligence coup in a live broadcast from Jerusalem. Speaking in English, Netanyahu showed off the archive, including what he said were copies of 55,000 pages of Iranian nuclear information and a display of discs he said were 55,000 files. Iran tried to dismiss Netanyahu's comments as 'childish' and 'laughable,' but the plundering of the archive showed the confidence Israel had in the Mossad's ability to function in Tehran. The operation, which would have required extensive planning and an intimate knowledge of the archive's location and security, pushed the first Trump administration to withdraw from the original nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Israel wasn't done yet. In November 2020, Israel assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's chief nuclear scientist, while he was in a bulletproof car traveling with his wife. Fakhrizadeh's car was moving in a convoy with three security vehicles when he came under fire. Iranian state media said a remote-controlled machine gun opened fire on the nuclear scientist, who had been a long-time target for Israel. The operation, which Israel has not publicly acknowledged, was carried out with remarkable precision, and it displayed a deep knowledge of Fakhrizadeh's pattern of life. And yet despite its repeated inability to stop the Mossad, Iran has proven incapable of improving. Ram Ben Barak, the former deputy director of the Mossad, said the organization's continued success is 'due to a very, very disliked regime, even hated by most of the public, so this allows for intelligence penetration on one hand, and on the other, you have the sophistication and professionalism of the Israeli intelligence personnel.' After the start of the war in Gaza, Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. A source familiar with the matter said Israel planted an explosive device in a guest house where Haniyeh was known to stay. The bomb was concealed in the room for two months before the targeted killing and detonated remotely once Haniyeh was in the room.
CNN
6 days ago
- Politics
- CNN
Israel's unprecedented attack shows Iran has become a ‘playground' for the Mossad
Before Israel launched an unprecedented wave of strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and top military leaders this week, its spies were already on the ground in enemy territory. Israeli intelligence agency Mossad had smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the strikes, according to Israeli security officials, and would use the weapons to target Iran's defense from within. The officials said Israel established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, and the drones were later used to target missile launchers near Tehran. Precision weapons were also smuggled in and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel's Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time. The plan to disable Iranian defenses seems to have been effective; Israel said all of its aircraft returned safely from the first waves of strikes, appearing to show Israeli air superiority over parts of a country hundreds of miles away. Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also gave Israel's air force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists. In an incredibly rare move, the Mossad released video from some of its operations, showing drones attacking what appear to be unsuspecting missile launchers. It is the latest operation to show how deeply Israel's intelligence services, including the Mossad, have penetrated some of Iran's most closely guarded secrets. The operations have made the Mossad appear a nearly unstoppable force in Iran, capable of hitting at some of its highest-ranking officials and most sensitive sites. 'Mossad has treated Iran like its playground for years now,' said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist newsletter. 'From assassinating top nuclear scientists to sabotaging Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel has proved time and time again that it has always had the upper hand in this shadow war that has now been playing out in the open since the first tit-for-tat strikes in April 2024.' An Israeli security source said the latest operation required commando forces operating deep within Tehran and across the country while avoiding detection from Iran's security and intelligence agencies. The source said Mossad teams targeted air defense missiles, ballistic missiles, and missile launchers as the attack from the Israeli Air Force began. A second Israeli security source said the Mossad operations were years in the making, involving both intelligence-gathering efforts and the deployment of Mossad commandos deep behind enemy lines. Some of the Mossad commando forces operated in the Iranian capital itself, according to the security source. In addition to the drone base established by the Mossad long before Wednesday's attack, Mossad commandos deployed 'precision-guided weapons systems' near Iranian missile air defense systems, which were activated at the same time as the Israeli air force began striking its targets. A second operation deployed sophisticated vehicle-mounted weaponry to target other Iranian defense systems. The Mossad operation also involved assassinations of top Iranian officials. Israel has shown – flaunted even – the Mossad's ability to operate with near impunity in Iran in the past. Starting in the early-2010s, Iran accused Israel of carrying out a campaign of assassinations against the country's nuclear scientists. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon tacitly acknowledged the targeted killings when he said in 2015 that Israel cannot be held responsible 'for the life expectancy of Iran's nuclear scientists.' From 2007 to 2012 Israel allegedly carried out five covert assassinations, nearly all in Tehran, through remote-controlled bombings, or remote-controlled machine guns. Only one of Iran's key nuclear scientists survived the assassination attempt, Fereydoon Abbasi. Just last month, Abbasi told Iranian state media that any attack on production sites would have little impact on the timeline of developing a bomb, saying, 'our capabilities are spread all over the country. If they target production sites, it will be inconsequential to our timetable, because our nuclear materials are not stored above ground for them to hit.' Abbasi was one of the scientists killed in Israel's early morning attack in Tehran. The Mossad's actions soon became much more public. In early-2018, Israel stole Iran's nuclear archive from Tehran, displaying the intelligence coup in a live broadcast from Jerusalem. Speaking in English, Netanyahu showed off the archive, including what he said were copies of 55,000 pages of Iranian nuclear information and a display of discs he said were 55,000 files. Iran tried to dismiss Netanyahu's comments as 'childish' and 'laughable,' but the plundering of the archive showed the confidence Israel had in the Mossad's ability to function in Tehran. The operation, which would have required extensive planning and an intimate knowledge of the archive's location and security, pushed the first Trump administration to withdraw from the original nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Israel wasn't done yet. In November 2020, Israel assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's chief nuclear scientist, while he was in a bulletproof car traveling with his wife. Fakhrizadeh's car was moving in a convoy with three security vehicles when he came under fire. Iranian state media said a remote-controlled machine gun opened fire on the nuclear scientist, who had been a long-time target for Israel. The operation, which Israel has not publicly acknowledged, was carried out with remarkable precision, and it displayed a deep knowledge of Fakhrizadeh's pattern of life. And yet despite its repeated inability to stop the Mossad, Iran has proven incapable of improving. Ram Ben Barak, the former deputy director of the Mossad, said the organization's continued success is 'due to a very, very disliked regime, even hated by most of the public, so this allows for intelligence penetration on one hand, and on the other, you have the sophistication and professionalism of the Israeli intelligence personnel.' After the start of the war in Gaza, Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. A source familiar with the matter said Israel planted an explosive device in a guest house where Haniyeh was known to stay. The bomb was concealed in the room for two months before the targeted killing and detonated remotely once Haniyeh was in the room.
