Latest news with #IrelandThinks
RTÉ News
18-05-2025
- Politics
- RTÉ News
The maths behind the public votes at Eurovision 2025
Pollster Kevin Cunningham explains how the nature of Eurovision voting influenced the outcome When it comes to the public votes cast at the Eurovision, we need to take elements like 'diffuse alternatives' and 'motivated reasoning' into consideration. This is according to Dr Kevin Cunningham, a lecturer in politics at TU Dublin and the founder of the Ireland Thinks polling company. First, there's 'diffuse alternatives', Cunningham explains. "If Israel were on the ballot, let's say, and that was the principal thing people were voting on, there's only one Israeli option and 24 other non-Israel options. So that means that the relative concentration of support within the Israeli option tends to be a little bit higher." From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland in May 2024, why did Ireland give Israel 10 points at Eurovision 2024? So what vote share would we expect Israel to have gotten to get to second place? "If we look at the result from previous years' Eurovision finals, the second place got around 13 or 14% in the last two years, so we might expect that it only takes 13 or 14% for someone to actually get to 2nd place. That means that quite a large proportion might actually have been voting for others." We also have to take 'motivated reasoning' into consideration. "We see this in politics when it comes to turnout in elections and turnout in referendums", explains Cunningham. "When we see turnout in referendums become very low we notice that the results become quite skewed. If turnout in a referendum gets lower than 35% the people who are more motivated, more interested, tend to influence the outcome a little bit more". In the case of Eurovision, it's even more extreme. "Because we know that even of those that viewed the Eurovision, only around 6 or 7%, from previous data, actually vote", says Cunningham, "so it means that it's at the extreme end. But then what accentuates this even more is the number of times that you can vote. You can vote up to 20 times so that influences it to a massive degree in reality. "You could imagine there are certain people who vote once or twice for a given song, and then there might be some people who vote 20 times for the exact same song or country. By definition, taken together with the low turnout and also the scale in which people might be voting, it necessitates, basically, an extreme preference for whoever tends to win, or otherwise. If you imagine a room of 100 people and 99 of them vote once, and one of them votes 20 times, based on our sums, you could expect that one to actually win."
Irish Independent
12-05-2025
- Automotive
- Irish Independent
Survey shows main reasons more people don't choose to cycle in Ireland
The research indicated that the vast majority of Irish adults rarely or never cycle, with just 13pc cycling weekly. The most common deterrents were the volume of traffic (66pc), dangerous driving (61pc), a lack of confidence cycling in traffic (51pc) and a lack of segregated cycle lanes (40pc). Other reasons given were weather conditions (34pc), previous incidents or near-misses (21pc) and poor street lighting in the evening (21pc). The survey was conducted by polling company Ireland Thinks for insurer RedClick, a partner of the Dublinbikes service. The bike-sharing scheme is operated by JCDecaux on behalf of Dublin City Council. The research was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,648 participants. It indicated that 82pc of Irish adults rarely or never cycle and just 13pc said they cycled weekly. This compared to 24pc of EU citizens who cycle weekly, 47pc of Danes and 42pc of Finnish citizens. The research found that 56pc of adults in Ireland said safety concerns had stopped them from cycling. Women are more than 25pc more likely than men to cite safety concerns as a barrier (62pc vs 49pc). When asked what changes would encourage them or others to cycle more, safer roads and improved driver-cyclist etiquette emerged as people's top priority (56pc). Other suggestions included more dedicated cycle lanes (38pc), more secure parking (22pc), greater policing of bike theft (22pc), and improved street lighting (17pc). The survey also indicates that 35pc of adults own a bike, 4pc own an electric bike, 1pc own a cargo bike. A total of 5pc use Dublinbikes or another bike-sharing service, rising to 9pc in Dublin.
BreakingNews.ie
12-05-2025
- Automotive
- BreakingNews.ie
Safety concerns main issue stopping adults from cycling
Safety concerns are the main barrier preventing more Irish people from cycling, according to a survey. The research indicated that the vast majority of Irish adults rarely or never cycle, with just 13 per cent of Irish adults cycling weekly. Advertisement The most commonly given deterrents were the volume of traffic (66 per cent), dangerous driving (61 per cent), a lack of confidence cycling in traffic (51 per cent) and a lack of segregated cycle lanes (40 per cent). Other reasons given were weather conditions (34 per cent), previous incidents or near-misses (21 per cent) and poor street lighting in the evening (21 per cent). The survey was conducted by polling company IrelandThinks for insurer RedClick, a partner of the Dublinbikes scheme which is operated by JCDecaux on behalf of Dublin City Council. The research was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,648 participants. Advertisement It indicated that 82 per cent of Irish adults rarely or never cycle and just 13 per cent of Irish adults said they cycled weekly. This compares to 24 per cent of EU citizens who cycle weekly, 47 per cent of Danes and 42 per cent of Finnish citizens. The research found that 56 per cent of adults in Ireland said safety concerns have stopped them from cycling, with women being over 25% more likely than men to cite safety concerns as a barrier (62 per cent vs 49 per cent). When asked what changes would encourage them or others to cycle more, safer roads and improved driver–cyclist etiquette emerged as the top priority (56 per cent). Advertisement Ireland Death of garda at checkpoint marks 'desperately sa... Read More Other suggestions included more dedicated cycle lanes (38 per cent), more secure parking (22 per cent), greater policing of bike theft (22 per cent), and improved street lighting (17 per cent). The survey also indicates that 35 per cent of adults own a bike, four per cent own an electric bike, one per cent own a cargo bike, and five per cent use RedClick Dublinbikes or another bike sharing service. In Dublin, nine per cent of adults use RedClick Dublinbikes or another bike share scheme.
Irish Independent
12-05-2025
- Automotive
- Irish Independent
Traffic volume and dangerous driving main reasons more people don't cycle, survey shows
The research indicated that the vast majority of Irish adults rarely or never cycle, with just 13pc cycling weekly. The most common deterrents were the volume of traffic (66pc), dangerous driving (61pc), a lack of confidence cycling in traffic (51pc) and a lack of segregated cycle lanes (40pc). Other reasons given were weather conditions (34pc), previous incidents or near-misses (21pc) and poor street lighting in the evening (21pc). The survey was conducted by polling company Ireland Thinks for insurer RedClick, a partner of the Dublinbikes service. The bike-sharing scheme is operated by JCDecaux on behalf of Dublin City Council. The research was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,648 participants. It indicated that 82pc of Irish adults rarely or never cycle and just 13pc said they cycled weekly. This compared to 24pc of EU citizens who cycle weekly, 47pc of Danes and 42pc of Finnish citizens. The research found that 56pc of adults in Ireland said safety concerns had stopped them from cycling. Women are more than 25pc more likely than men to cite safety concerns as a barrier (62pc vs 49pc). When asked what changes would encourage them or others to cycle more, safer roads and improved driver-cyclist etiquette emerged as people's top priority (56pc). Other suggestions included more dedicated cycle lanes (38pc), more secure parking (22pc), greater policing of bike theft (22pc), and improved street lighting (17pc). The survey also indicates that 35pc of adults own a bike, 4pc own an electric bike, 1pc own a cargo bike. A total of 5pc use Dublinbikes or another bike-sharing service, rising to 9pc in Dublin.
Irish Independent
08-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
David W Higgins: Smarter work-permits system could do more for housing than any highly paid tsar
The latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll found 62pc of voters believe housing is the main issue the country faces. That's miles ahead of the one they ranked second-most pressing, immigration, on 28pc. Separation between these issues has been a sacred cow in mainstream Irish politics. Successive housing ministers have placed their focus on supply and haven't suggested the crisis could be sooner solved if inward migration levels were lower. They would be mauled for allegedly causing division. Time is running out for this argument, though. Real-estate analysis by Savills shows that between 2015 and 2023, population growth exceeded new-home delivery by almost four to one. The 2022 census found the population had grown by 387,000 since 2016, with 220,000 due to net migration. Additional numbers since are likely to be significant, given the war in Ukraine and the increase in asylum-seekers. The focus on housing supply isn't bearing the fruit it should. Targets have been missed, but we're still building much more than we did before. The demand side is now creeping into our consciousness. Instead of rejecting the discourse entirely, we should handle it maturely. The story of migration to Ireland is a relatively recent one. The 2004 accession of eastern European countries brought the first significant wave. The crash led many of those arrivals to return home. The years since have seen a steady return to high immigration, but from outside the EU. This is a perplexing feature of the Irish economy. Available jobs in a country of five million people don't attract sufficient interest from the half-a-billion people who live in the rest of Europe. Freedom of movement is guaranteed and wages are high. Still not enough. So we turn to the system of employment permits. In 2016, just under 10,000 permits were issued. This rose gradually to more than 16,000 in 2019. The economy in those years was still fruitful. Unemployment was falling, wages were rising and the phrase 'cost of living' wasn't even in our vocabulary. Leaving your family to work abroad is heartbreaking, yet allowing family reunification would mean even more housing demand Emerging from the pandemic, there was a surge in the number of permits issued. In 2022, there were nearly 40,000. This dipped to around 30,000 in 2023 and went back to near 40,000 last year. The first three months of 2025 show no signs of easing. The sectors using these permits are diverse, but two account for nearly half of the total – 12,500 permits for the health and social-work sectors and 6,800 for technology services. The former is defined by low wages, the latter by high wages. ADVERTISEMENT Translating permits into migrant numbers is a tricky business. Many permits include renewals for persons already resident here. A permit must then be followed by visa approval. This falls through for many reasons. There's also a backlog for both. Therefore, many permits don't add to migration. The flipside is that many permit-holders are allowed to bring their spouse and dependent children. Chain migration can mean one permit translates to one whole household. Permits were issued to 4,461 people in 2023 for reasons of family reunification, the highest on record. Not all permit-holders have this right, especially those on low wages. The case of healthcare assistants was recently highlighted outside Leinster House. Leaving your family to work abroad is heartbreaking, yet allowing family reunification would mean even more housing demand. It shouldn't be beyond our imagination to make this system humane, but limit its impact on housing demand. A fair trade would be to allow wider reunification rights, but to issue fewer permits. Policy seems set on a different path, however. In March, Enterprise Minister Peter Burke announced that the quota for home carers will increase by 1,000. Town planners were also added to the critical skills occupation list. This follows a decision last December to defer planned increases in minimum salary levels for these permits. The planned increases would have set higher salaries across many sectors. They would have also made employers think again about hiring abroad. The mix of these decisions is only to facilitate higher inward migration, and thus higher housing demand. All jobs seem good when you once oversaw an economy without them. The Department of Enterprise still has recent memories of the crash. It has contributed greatly to steering Ireland's economy back to full employment. Higher wages are bad for business, so it goes. But we're also losing competitiveness because workers can't find housing Yet Ireland's hot labour market needs taming. While some have suggested higher taxes as a remedy, the route of higher wages should be considered. The Government sets the minimum salaries for work permits, and these can act as a lever for labour demand. You can already hear the word 'competitiveness' in reply. Higher wages are bad for business, so it goes. But we're also losing competitiveness because workers can't find housing. So there's a tension. The move to higher salaries needn't be sudden. Implementing the already announced salaries would be a start. We can see from there how the affected sectors respond. If the Department of Enterprise doesn't begin to consider the wider impact of its policies, it will be only a matter of time before the housing department starts to get vocal. If I were Housing Minister James Browne, I would be asking why a decade of policy towards more housing supply has been eaten up by higher demand. That could mean more for his chances of success in the role than any housing tsar.
