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The Print
a day ago
- Business
- The Print
Operation Sindoor: How Rafales, Pakistani J-10s & lots of propaganda moved global defence markets
But as the fog of war began to clear and these claims were found to be exaggerated, Dassault's shares staged a recovery, reflecting a broader market correction. A rally in defence stocks, particularly among Chinese firms, may be attributed to the speculation or claims that Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighters, mainly Chinese-origin JF-17s and J-10Cs, had downed multiple Indian Rafale jets. This was the first instance of Chinese fighter jets being tested in real combat, attracting attention from defence watchers globally. Equally, it was the first time any claim emerged of a Rafale being shot down, an event that weighed on market sentiment, including on Dassault Aviation's stock. New Delhi: The impact of Operation Sindoor extended far beyond the battlefield as aerial battles continued in the stock markets. After India carried out precision strikes on nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in the early hours of 7 May, global defence markets reacted with notable fluctuations, reflecting investor sensitivity to regional tensions. ThePrint examines how the 88-hour India-Pakistan standoff sent ripples through global defence markets, impacting the stock prices of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) and its subsidiaries, as well as Lockheed Martin and Dassault Aviation. Stock prices are compared from the day Operation Sindoor began through to the closing figures on Thursday, with all values converted to INR using the prevailing exchange rates at the time of reporting. Also read: Defence stocks surge continues amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions since Pahalgam attack Pakistan's propaganda of multiple Rafale jets being shot fuelled Chinese defence stocks China's state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), particularly its Chengdu Aircraft division, saw one of the sharpest stock moves. AVIC Chengdu, which designs and manufactures the JF-17 and J-10C fighter jets used by the Pakistan Air Force, surged from Rs 828 on 7 May to Rs 1,145 by 12 May, witnessing a massive 38 percent jump in five days. Although the stock had cooled to Rs 939 by Thursday, it retained a net gain of 13 percent since the launch of Op Sindoor. Furthermore, another subsidiary of the state-owned AVIC group—AVIC Airborne Systems—which supplies precision avionics and weapons for the J-series jets operated by Pakistan, also saw a modest rise. Its stock climbed from Rs 136 to Rs 144 between 7 May and 12 May, marking a 5.9% increase that reflected growing investor confidence in China's deepening role in Pakistan's defence supply chain. By Thursday, however, the stock had eased slightly to Rs 138. Other than the speculation of these Chinese origin fighters performing exceedingly well, these spikes are also driven by investor belief that Pakistan might accelerate fighter acquisitions to strengthen its aerial capabilities following Operation Sindoor. Reports indicate that Pakistan could take delivery of the fifth generation FC-31 stealth fighter, the export version of China's J-35A, later this year. According to the latest Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, Chinese equipment accounted for 81 percent of Pakistan's major arms imports over the past five years. Subsequently, during last month's hostilities, Pakistan fielded a range of Chinese-origin platforms, including JF-17 and J-10C fighter jets, HQ-9B long range air defence systems, HQ-16 medium range air defence systems, PL-15E beyond visual range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM) and Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Beyond the loss of a couple of PAF aircrafts, several Chinese-supplied HQ-9B long-range and HQ-16 medium-range air defence systems were taken out by Harpy and Harop loitering munitions sourced from Israel. Additionally, the recovery of debris of a PL-15E beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) was confirmed by DG Air Operations (DGAO) Air Marshal A.K. Bharti in a press briefing. It was learnt that the much-discussed Chinese PL-15E missile failed to register a single hit during the conflict. Also read: Pakistan to go in for J-31 Chinese stealth fighters. What this could mean for balance of air power Western defence giants and market sentiment Western defence companies, from France's Dassault Aviation to the U.S.-based Lockheed Martin, experienced divergent market responses, shaped as much by battlefield developments, speculative reports and domestic developments. Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of India's Rafale jets, recorded a 6.4 percent decline between 7 and 12 May, with its stock falling from Rs 31,406 to a low of Rs 29,405. However, it had rebounded back to Rs 31,367 on Thursday, nearly regaining its pre-drop value. Incidentally, while Dassault Aviation hit its lowest point on 12 May, China's AVIC Chengdu registered its highest stock price during the same period, highlighting the contrasting market sentiments around the two defence suppliers amid the conflict. The initial dip may have been driven by concerns over possible losses, as the Indian Air Force did suffer setbacks during the operation, first hinted at by Air Marshal A.K. Bharti during the tri-services briefing held on 11 May and later confirmed by Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan in a Saturday interview with Bloomberg TV. Yet the Rafale jets, armed with SCALP cruise missiles and AASM Hammer glide bombs, carried out precision strikes on multiple targets across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The subsequent rebound in Dassault's stock suggests renewed investor confidence in the aircraft's combat effectiveness and strategic value. Furthermore, on Thursday, it was announced that the Rafale fighter aircraft fuselage will now be manufactured domestically by Tata Advanced Systems, strengthening its position as a strong contender for the Multi-role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme. In contrast, Lockheed Martin, whose F-16 fighters once formed the backbone of the Pakistan Air Force, registered only a modest 1.34 percent gain during the same period, with its stock rising from Rs 40,449 on the day Operation Sindoor was launched to Rs 40,990 by Thursday. The limited uptick can be attributed to heightened interest in the American aerospace giant's F-21, an advanced 4.5-generation fighter pitched as a potential contender for India, especially after unverified reports of Rafale being downed during Operation Sindoor drew the attention of investors and defence analysts. Lockheed Martin's uptick movement in stocks may also be linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on 15 May for the development of an upgraded 'F-22 Super' and a twin-engine variant of the F-35, provisionally dubbed the F-55. How speculation, politics and perception shape market swings Analysts also point out that stock movements observed since 7 May were driven not just by battlefield results but by narrative, politics and investor psychology. 'From a market perspective, defence procurement is a massive business. During events like Operation Sindoor, exaggerated speculation and misinformation are to be expected, especially when they serve the interests of those looking to profit,' Dr Vikas Gupta, CEO and smallcase manager at OmniScience Capital, told ThePrint. Big-ticket defence exports such as fighter jets are typically sealed through government-to-government agreements that generate employment and strategic influence for the given party, he added. 'At times, even governments may quietly encourage certain narratives if they align with their economic interests.' Dr Gupta also pointed out how China's market mechanics differ from the West. 'In China's case, there's an added layer of complexity. Beijing can directly intervene in markets, banning short selling, for instance, to stabilise or boost the performance of AVIC subsidiaries. That kind of intervention isn't feasible in countries like France, where the government usually avoids market interference.' Ultimately, the swings observed in the wake of Operation Sindoor reinforce a perceived reality of defence stocks remaining highly reactive to geopolitical flashpoints, with prices shaped as much by perception, speculation, politics and investor psychology as by actual battlefield performance. (Edited by Viny Mishra) Also read: Operation Sindoor signals a real paradigm shift, says ex-IAF chief. 'We hit where it hurts the most'
NDTV
21-05-2025
- Business
- NDTV
Can China's Arms Market Recover From India-Pak War Embarrassment?
India's Operation Sindoor is haunting both Pakistan and China, the former due to the non-explanation for sponsoring cross-border terrorism and the massive physical loss of military assets and face, and the latter due to the utter failure of its military equipment sold to Pakistan and the diplomatic fallout of supporting an 'ironclad' friend. Diplomatically, after the Pahalgam terror attacks, China expressed its concern and called for restraint on India's part, while reiterating support for Pakistan both regionally and in the United Nations' #1267 al-Qaeda sanctions committee. China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, discussed issues with his Pakistan counterpart, Ishaq Dar, and India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, without any concrete proposals in hand. Diplomatic Embarassment Ironically, Chinese bloggers criticised India for 'escalation' and called its actions 'destabilising' even as they cheered Pakistan's drone strikes on Indian borders. Many even said Pakistan was not involved in cross-border terrorism attacks in India, despite substantial evidence in this regard. Beijing offered mediation between the two warring South Asian countries but was at a loss when Pakistan preferred to approach the United States for a ceasefire. China's efforts to whitewash Pakistan-based terrorists and its diplomatic support to Islamabad have dented the image of China as a responsible country. Its myopic vision to back its 'all-weather' friend at all costs is expected to cost it its long-term strategic objectives. However, it was in the military showdown that China's image took a dent. Most of its military equipment - estimated to have cost Pakistan more than $20 billion - underperformed, missed their targets, malfunctioned, destroyed, or fell like duds in the war theatre. The Story Of The J-10C and JF-17s For instance, China sold to Pakistan its 'vigorous dragon' J-10 C fighter aircraft at $40 million a unit – with 20 out of 36 already sold since 2022. For comparison, while each F-16 was sold at $80 million, a Rafale cost around $200 million a piece. Pakistan said it deployed these assets against Indian Rafale, Su-30 MKI and the MiG29 aircraft. Despite claims by Pakistan - which were hyped by China's bloggers - of shooting down six Indian aircraft, no evidence of wreckage, pilot capture, or satellite imagery was provided by Pakistan or China. On the other hand, India provided satellite evidence on its precision strikes on 11 airfields in Pakistan. The Indian spokesman also stated that all its pilots were safe and returned. China also supplied to Pakistan its JF-17 'Thunder' Block III, under a license manufacturing agreement since 2006. These 156 aircraft cost Pakistan almost the same as J-10C – at around $35 million a unit, with similar missiles and radars. Both J-10s and JF-17s are equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles that can achieve a range of 150 to 200 km, compared to Rafale's Meteor missile range of about 150 km. Both aircraft are equipped with WS-10B turbofan engines, but they are less efficient compared to Rafale's Snecma M88-2 engines. Again, compared to Indian aircraft, Chinese-supplied Pakistan aircraft have a lower payload, shorter combat range and low survivability. In fact, Pakistan's defence spokesman even confirmed the loss of two JF-17s in the Indian retaliatory attacks. The Missiles That Missed Also, the PL-15 missiles missed their targets or malfunctioned. Several PL-15 missiles crashed without explosion in Hoshiarpur and Bhatinda districts of Punjab. Chinese bloggers criticised Pakistan's defence forces for lacking professionalism and for being inadequately trained to handle the Chinese-supplied equipment. Some reminded them of their inability to integrate advanced air defence equipment, their lack of proper coordination with Chinese military personnel, and their failure to act in real time. The Air Defence Systems That Failed China had also sold the HQ-9P air defence system to Pakistan in 2021, with a complete battery including 192 missiles, 12 targeting and search radars, 48 launch and command vehicles and other equipment, costing a whopping $600 million. These were to protect Lahore and Sialkot. However, neither the HQ-9P air defence system nor the Chinese ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) equipment was able to detect incoming Indian missiles. In 2018, China supplied 48 Wing Loong II armed drones to Pakistan, costing the latter about $3 to 5 million a unit. Many of these were destroyed by Indian Jaguar strikes at Sukkur air base. A Missed Opportunity This was the first time since the disastrous Vietnam War in 1979, when thousands of Chinese were killed by the Vietnamese, that China got a chance to showcase the prowess of its military equipment. Its military did participate in the ongoing Taiwan Straits mobilisation regularly, but lacked a real combat environment. The pinpointed and precision-based Operation Sindoor proved to be a damp squib for China's military. Financially, China could expect some setbacks as a result of the India-Pakistan conflict. With trepidation, it has to choose Islamabad or New Delhi for trade and market economy - most significantly, in light of Trump's devastating tariffs. Though on May 11, an agreement was reached in Geneva between the United States and China to lower tariffs substantially, this deal is temporary in nature. Confidence Lost More significantly, China viewed the India-Pakistan conflict as an arena to sell its military equipment. However, its poor performance in Pakistan has shaken its arms bazaar. For instance, after the ceasefire announcement by Pakistan, China's Aviation Industrial Corporation (AVIC) Chengdu and Zhuzhou Hongda (that produces PL-15 missiles) saw their stock performance tumble by 9%, from an initial gain in the early stages of the conflict. Chinese military equipment's lackadaisical performance in Pakistan undermined business confidence and resulted in a slide in the stocks. On the other hand, the Mumbai stock exchange rebounded by over 3.5% (adding nearly $200 billion in market capitalisation) after the ceasefire agreement was announced. Demand for Indian arms exports is also rising, especially for Brahmos and Akash. Thus, diplomatically, militarily and financially, China's intervention in the India-Pakistan conflict has proven to be rather costly.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Clip of Pakistan general saying country 'lost jets' is doctored
"Breaking News Pakistan confirms loss of 2 JF-17s to Indian SAMs -- 1 F-16 also SHOT DOWN," reads an English-language Facebook post on May 8, 2025. The accompanying video appears to show Chaudry at a podium saying: "I regret to confirm that two J-F 17's aircraft were lost during active duty. This loss isn't just numbers for us, it represents a blow to our morale." Similar posts sharing the video also surfaced elsewhere on Facebook and on TikTok in the days after India said it launched strikes against "terrorist camps" in Pakistan in retaliation for a deadly attack on tourists in the Indian-run side of disputed Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on Islamabad (archived link). Pakistan denies the accusation. The nuclear-armed rivals traded fire for four days before US President Donald Trump announced a truce on May 10. The flare-up in violence was the worst since the rivals' last open conflict in 1999 and sparked global shudders that it could spiral into full-blown war. Pakistan has not said it lost military aircraft as of May 20. Its military claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three advanced French Rafale aircraft, all of which were in Indian airspace at the time. India has not disclosed any losses. Reverse image and keyword searches found the manipulated video -- where the spokesperson's lips can be seen glitching -- matches footage from a press conference in December 27, 2024 published by the Pakistan military's public relations wing ISPR (archived link). "Security and anti-terrorism forces have conducted 59,775 intelligence-based operations of different categories," Chaudhry says in the presser. "During these successful operations 925 terrorists were killed." An analysis of the audio in the circulating clip using the voice cloning detection tool Hiya tool in the Verification Plugin, also known as InVID-WeVerify, found it is "very likely AI-generated" (archived link). AFP has debunked misinformation surrounding the India-Pakistan conflict here.
AFP
20-05-2025
- Politics
- AFP
Clip of Pakistan general saying country 'lost jets' is doctored
of Pakistan's military spokesman has been manipulated to make it appear he announced Islamabad lost three fighter jets during its recent conflict with India. The video shows Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudry talking about army intelligence operations in December 2024. "Breaking News Pakistan confirms loss of 2 JF-17s to Indian SAMs -- 1 F-16 also SHOT DOWN," reads an English-language Facebook post on May 8, 2025. The accompanying video appears to show Chaudry at a podium saying: "I regret to confirm that two J-F 17's aircraft were lost during active duty. This loss isn't just numbers for us, it represents a blow to our morale." Image Screenshot of the false post, taken May 20, 2025 Similar posts sharing the video also surfaced elsewhere on Facebook and on TikTok in the days after India said it launched strikes against "terrorist camps" in Pakistan in retaliation for a deadly attack on tourists in the Indian-run side of disputed Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on Islamabad (archived link). Pakistan denies the accusation. The nuclear-armed rivals traded fire for four days before US President Donald Trump announced a truce on May 10. The flare-up in violence was the worst since the rivals' last open conflict in 1999 and sparked global shudders that it could spiral into full-blown war. Pakistan has not said it lost military aircraft as of . Its military claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three advanced French Rafale aircraft, all of which were in Indian airspace at the time. India has not disclosed any losses. Reverse image and keyword searches found the manipulated video -- where the spokesperson's lips can be seen glitching -- matches footage from a press conference in December 27, 2024 published by the Pakistan military's public relations wing ISPR (archived link). and anti-terrorism forces have conducted 59,775 intelligence-based operations of different categories," says in the presser. "During these successful operations 925 terrorists were killed." Image Screenshot comparison of false post (left) and the ISPR video of the press conference (right). An analysis of the audio in the circulating clip using the voice cloning detection tool Hiya tool in the Verification Plugin, also known as InVID-WeVerify, found it is "very likely AI-generated" (archived link). Image Screenshot of InVid audio detection test. Taken by AFP on May 13, 2025. AFP has debunked misinformation surrounding the India-Pakistan conflict here.
Time of India
11-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Did Pakistan lie about shooting down Indian jets and did it lose its own JF-17s?
Did Pakistan lie about shooting down Indian jets and did it lose its own JF-17s? Team TOI Plus May 11, 2025, 16:16 IST IST The hostilities have ceased after a ceasefire. But we still don't know if Pakistan was lying about shooting down five Indian fighter jets. Nor have Indian officials confirmed reports that Pakistan lost some JF-17s Even as the Indian government is silent on whether Pakistan shot down five Indian fighter jets on the night of May 7, international media channels have doubled down on their claims.
