Can China's Arms Market Recover From India-Pak War Embarrassment?
India's Operation Sindoor is haunting both Pakistan and China, the former due to the non-explanation for sponsoring cross-border terrorism and the massive physical loss of military assets and face, and the latter due to the utter failure of its military equipment sold to Pakistan and the diplomatic fallout of supporting an 'ironclad' friend.
Diplomatically, after the Pahalgam terror attacks, China expressed its concern and called for restraint on India's part, while reiterating support for Pakistan both regionally and in the United Nations' #1267 al-Qaeda sanctions committee. China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, discussed issues with his Pakistan counterpart, Ishaq Dar, and India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, without any concrete proposals in hand.
Diplomatic Embarassment
Ironically, Chinese bloggers criticised India for 'escalation' and called its actions 'destabilising' even as they cheered Pakistan's drone strikes on Indian borders. Many even said Pakistan was not involved in cross-border terrorism attacks in India, despite substantial evidence in this regard. Beijing offered mediation between the two warring South Asian countries but was at a loss when Pakistan preferred to approach the United States for a ceasefire.
China's efforts to whitewash Pakistan-based terrorists and its diplomatic support to Islamabad have dented the image of China as a responsible country. Its myopic vision to back its 'all-weather' friend at all costs is expected to cost it its long-term strategic objectives.
However, it was in the military showdown that China's image took a dent. Most of its military equipment - estimated to have cost Pakistan more than $20 billion - underperformed, missed their targets, malfunctioned, destroyed, or fell like duds in the war theatre.
The Story Of The J-10C and JF-17s
For instance, China sold to Pakistan its 'vigorous dragon' J-10 C fighter aircraft at $40 million a unit – with 20 out of 36 already sold since 2022. For comparison, while each F-16 was sold at $80 million, a Rafale cost around $200 million a piece. Pakistan said it deployed these assets against Indian Rafale, Su-30 MKI and the MiG29 aircraft.
Despite claims by Pakistan - which were hyped by China's bloggers - of shooting down six Indian aircraft, no evidence of wreckage, pilot capture, or satellite imagery was provided by Pakistan or China. On the other hand, India provided satellite evidence on its precision strikes on 11 airfields in Pakistan. The Indian spokesman also stated that all its pilots were safe and returned.
China also supplied to Pakistan its JF-17 'Thunder' Block III, under a license manufacturing agreement since 2006. These 156 aircraft cost Pakistan almost the same as J-10C – at around $35 million a unit, with similar missiles and radars.
Both J-10s and JF-17s are equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles that can achieve a range of 150 to 200 km, compared to Rafale's Meteor missile range of about 150 km. Both aircraft are equipped with WS-10B turbofan engines, but they are less efficient compared to Rafale's Snecma M88-2 engines. Again, compared to Indian aircraft, Chinese-supplied Pakistan aircraft have a lower payload, shorter combat range and low survivability. In fact, Pakistan's defence spokesman even confirmed the loss of two JF-17s in the Indian retaliatory attacks.
The Missiles That Missed
Also, the PL-15 missiles missed their targets or malfunctioned. Several PL-15 missiles crashed without explosion in Hoshiarpur and Bhatinda districts of Punjab. Chinese bloggers criticised Pakistan's defence forces for lacking professionalism and for being inadequately trained to handle the Chinese-supplied equipment. Some reminded them of their inability to integrate advanced air defence equipment, their lack of proper coordination with Chinese military personnel, and their failure to act in real time.
The Air Defence Systems That Failed
China had also sold the HQ-9P air defence system to Pakistan in 2021, with a complete battery including 192 missiles, 12 targeting and search radars, 48 launch and command vehicles and other equipment, costing a whopping $600 million. These were to protect Lahore and Sialkot. However, neither the HQ-9P air defence system nor the Chinese ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) equipment was able to detect incoming Indian missiles.
In 2018, China supplied 48 Wing Loong II armed drones to Pakistan, costing the latter about $3 to 5 million a unit. Many of these were destroyed by Indian Jaguar strikes at Sukkur air base.
A Missed Opportunity
This was the first time since the disastrous Vietnam War in 1979, when thousands of Chinese were killed by the Vietnamese, that China got a chance to showcase the prowess of its military equipment. Its military did participate in the ongoing Taiwan Straits mobilisation regularly, but lacked a real combat environment. The pinpointed and precision-based Operation Sindoor proved to be a damp squib for China's military.
Financially, China could expect some setbacks as a result of the India-Pakistan conflict. With trepidation, it has to choose Islamabad or New Delhi for trade and market economy - most significantly, in light of Trump's devastating tariffs. Though on May 11, an agreement was reached in Geneva between the United States and China to lower tariffs substantially, this deal is temporary in nature.
Confidence Lost
More significantly, China viewed the India-Pakistan conflict as an arena to sell its military equipment. However, its poor performance in Pakistan has shaken its arms bazaar. For instance, after the ceasefire announcement by Pakistan, China's Aviation Industrial Corporation (AVIC) Chengdu and Zhuzhou Hongda (that produces PL-15 missiles) saw their stock performance tumble by 9%, from an initial gain in the early stages of the conflict. Chinese military equipment's lackadaisical performance in Pakistan undermined business confidence and resulted in a slide in the stocks.
On the other hand, the Mumbai stock exchange rebounded by over 3.5% (adding nearly $200 billion in market capitalisation) after the ceasefire agreement was announced. Demand for Indian arms exports is also rising, especially for Brahmos and Akash.
Thus, diplomatically, militarily and financially, China's intervention in the India-Pakistan conflict has proven to be rather costly.
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