Latest news with #JOLTs
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Morgan Stanley sees 3 things that could break the stock market's record-setting rally
It's been a tumultuous summer for markets, but investors have mostly ploughed through the volatility and pushed stocks steadily higher — but one top bank is warning not to get comfortable. The S&P 500 is up 8% year-to-date, and the benchmark index is cruising near record highs in the late summer stretch. Solid earnings, a still-strong economy, and more AI hype have pushed stocks ever upward. However, Morgan Stanley thinks there are a few things that could snap the winning streak. Here's what the bank is looking at: A cooling Labor Market Since the July jobs report, fears have swirled that the recent strength in the job market may have been a mirage. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US economy added 73,000 nonfarm jobs, short of the estimated 105,000. The revisions for the prior two months were also sharply negative. While the Trump administration has questioned the accuracy of the data, Morgan Stanley sees cause for concern. "We believe that the trend, if not the exact level, is substantiated by the broad data mosaic," Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of the bank's wealth management group, wrote on Monday. "According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTs survey, job openings fell to 7.44 million at the end of June, equating to a weak openings-to-job-seeker ratio of roughly 1:1," Shalett added. The report highlighted several other economic data points that point toward slower economic growth, including a survey from the Institute for Supply Management which showed new employment contracting at levels that may indicate a coming recession. Skewed Q2 earnings Shalett acknowledged that Q2 earnings season showed strong growth for many companies, particularly those in the tech sector. S&P 500 earnings beats have managed to remain at or above the 80% benchmark with a few weeks left to go. However, despite positive sentiment from investors, Shalett said that the a peak under the hood of the latest quarterly results tells a slightly different story. "Only three of the 11 major equity sectors—information technology, communication services and financials—posted double-digit gains," the report said. It added that while the members of the Magnificent 7 are growing at a rate of 26% for the year, that still leaves 493 companies that are barely up, if at all, on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. "Is the economy really robust if most of the largest-cap companies' profits are only in line with nominal GDP growth?" A potential "stagflationary" pause Shalett flagged two themes that have dominated economic conversations recently: inflation and the possibility of stagflation, which could curtail the forces pushing markets up. With President Donald Trump's trade war still raging, concerns about inflation have spiked, but the overall economy appears to be in good shape for now. However, Morgan Stanley said that this could be temporary. "This may be a case of pain delayed, not denied, as the most recent final-reciprocal-tariff announcements set rates nearly double the 10% level to approximately 18%," the report stated. Other analysts and commentators have raised similar concerns, noting that tariffs could cause the state of the economy to deteriorate, even as investor optimism remains robust.
BusinessToday
07-06-2025
- Business
- BusinessToday
Ringgit Breaking 4.20 Hinges On Upcoming Economic Data
After a brief dip to 4.26 against the US dollar last Friday, the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) showed resilience this week, trading within the expected 4.23–4.25 range. This recovery was partly attributed to a subdued US Dollar Index (DXY), as reported by Kenanga Research. The US dollar experienced initial pressure following increased US tariffs on steel and aluminum, coupled with threats of a 'revenge tax' from President Donald Trump. Further weakness came from a softer ISM manufacturing print and growing fiscal concerns. However, the greenback later rebounded on stronger JOLTs job openings data and renewed optimism surrounding potential trade talks between the US and China. Despite this rebound, softer ADP private payroll figures and rising jobless claims have signaled potential cracks in the US labor market. Globally, Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut had minimal impact on bolstering the USD. The Euro managed to hold its gains amid indications that further easing might be paused soon. Market attention now shifts to tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. A figure below 100,000 new jobs could intensify recession fears and strengthen the case for a US Federal Reserve rate cut. However, markets are likely to await next week's core inflation data, which is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, before making significant moves. Looking ahead, Kenanga Research notes lingering concerns about renewed trade and bond market volatility once the 90-day US reciprocal tariffs pause concludes in July. The trajectory of US-China negotiations will be critical. A breakthrough in these talks could offer the US dollar short-term support, although fiscal-driven term premiums might cap any substantial gains. Domestically, the Ringgit's performance will hinge on upcoming economic indicators. If industrial production (IPI) and retail sales data point to continued economic resilience in Malaysia, the Ringgit could appreciate further. Kenanga Research suggests the Ringgit could potentially test the 4.21–4.24 per US dollar range next week. Technically, the USDMYR currency pair remains neutral, trading close to its 5-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 4.24. Near-term direction is expected to be guided by trade-related headlines, with immediate support identified at 4.22 and resistance at 4.25. USD GBP EUR JPY100 CHF AUD CAD SGD HKD100 3 Jun 2025 4.2390 5.7426 4.8509 2.9704 5.1885 2.7522 3.0894 3.2982 54.0382 4 Jun 2025 4.2490 5.7474 4.8366 2.9508 5.1597 2.7451 3.0983 3.2947 54.1636 5 Jun 2025 4.2325 5.7395 4.8375 2.9667 5.1764 2.7518 3.0956 3.2942 53.9509 6 Jun 2025 4.2250 5.7367 4.8376 2.9395 5.1512 2.7503 3.0916 3.2851 53.8508 Related
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Business Standard
05-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Gold price outlook: Analyst suggests buying on dips; key levels to watch
Gold: Consolidating its gains Performance: Following a sharp rally of 2.33 per cent on Monday, Spot gold prices corrected lower on Tuesday as the US dollar recovered. Gold surged sharply higher on June 2, helped by a weaker dollar and renewed safe-haven demand triggered by escalating US-China tensions and Ukraine's massive drone attack on Russia. On June 3, gold, at the time of writing this report, was changing hands at $3,349, down around 1 per cent on the day, while MCX August gold at ₹97,649 was down roughly 0.31 per cent. The yellow metal was lower as the US dollar index strengthened and risk appetite, despite mostly negative news flow, remained healthy. US-China tensions escalate: On June 2, China accused the US of violating the US-China trade truce as the US imposed further chip technology curbs and halted the export of critical US jet engine parts and technology to China. It also plans to broaden restrictions on China's tech sector with new regulations to capture subsidiaries of companies under US curbs. The US also intends to revoke visas for Chinese students with connections to China's Communist Party and security issues. According to the White House, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are likely to speak this week. Data roundup: US data released on June 3, were mostly mixed, markets gave more weightage to the JOLTs job openings though. Factory order (April) came in -3.7 per cent against the forecast of -3.2 per cent as the prior data was revised lower from 4.3 per cent to 3.4 per cent. Durable goods order (April final) at -6.3 per cent were in line with the forecast. JOLTs job openings (April) surprisingly beat the forecast as openings rose from 72,00,000 to 73,91,000 as against the forecast of 71,00,000. However, the internals of the JOLTs report was not so encouraging as layoffs increased from 1 per cent to 1.1 per cent and the quits rate dropped from 2.1 per cent to 2 per cent indicating reduced prospects of finding a new job. In addition, vacancies in industries like manufacturing and food services declined. The Euro-zone's inflation cooled more than expected as consumer prices rose 1.9 per cent y-o-y in May, trailing the forecast of 2 per cent; the reading was cooler than the prior data of 2.2 per cent. The data bolsters the case for the ECB cutting its key rates by 25 bps in its monetary policy meeting to be held on June 5. Elsewhere, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI (May) fell to 48.3, the lowest since September 2022, from 50.40 in April as trade frictions weighed on the nation's manufacturing sector. CATCH STOCK MARKET LIVE UPDATES TODAY US dollar index and yields: The US dollar index, at the time of writing, was 99.24, up around 0.60 per cent on the day, as the Index recovered from a six-week low ahead of the US ISM services and nonfarm payroll reports. US 10-year yields at 4.46 per cent were up by nearly 0.50 per cent OECD's warning: The OECD slashed its global economic forecasts on trade war leading to uncertainty on business confidence and investment. The organisation sees global economic growth at 2.9 per cent in 2025 from its earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent made in March as the US growth is expected to be 1.6 per cent as compared to its earlier estimate of 2.2 per cent. The OECD forecasts a global growth of 2.9 per cent in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 3 per cent. The organisation warned that fiscal risks are intensifying around the world with tremendous pressure for spending on defence, climate, and aging population. ETF: Total known global gold ETF holdings rose to 88.336MOz on June 2, which is the highest level since May 15. Gold ETFs recorded their first weekly inflow last week after five consecutive weekly outflows. Holdings are up nearly 6.6 per cent year-to-date (Y-T-D). Central Banks' gold buying: Global central banks bought a net 12 tons in April, 12 per cent lower than the previous month. Slower pace of buying could be due to high gold prices in April. Upcoming data: Today's US data on the card include crucial ADP employment change (May) and ISM services (May). Fed will release its beige book, too. Outlook: Spot gold is likely to range trade ahead of the US ISM services and nonfarm payroll reports. US-China tensions and worries over fiscal issues are likely to support the metal. It is advisable to 'buy the dips' for a possible test of $3,435 (₹1,00,000) resistance unless there is a clear improvement in US-China talks or the US nonfarm payroll report is stronger than expected. Support is at $3,325 (₹96,900)/$3,292 (₹95,900). Resistance is at $3,372 (₹98,300)/$3400 (₹99,100)/$3,415 (₹99,500).
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Business Standard
05-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Silver price outlook: 'Buy on dips' suggests analyst; check key levels here
Silver- Consolidation ahead of key US data On June 2, spot silver staged its sharpest intra-day rally since 2021 as it surged 5.39 per cent to close at $34.76, the highest daily closing level since October 22. The white metal consolidated its gains on June 3 as the US dollar index strengthened. At the time of writing, spot silver was trading at $34.54, down around 0.63 per cent on the day. The MCX July contract was trading at ₹102,260, up around 0.2 per cent. US-China tensions escalate: On June 2, China accused the US of violating the US-China trade truce as the US imposed further chip technology curbs and halted the export of critical US jet engine parts and technology to China. It also plans to broaden restrictions on China's tech sector with new regulations to capture subsidiaries of companies under US curbs. The US also intends to revoke visas for Chinese students with connections to China's Communist Party and security issues. According to the White House, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are likely to speak this week. Data roundup: US data released on June 3, were mostly mixed, markets gave more weightage to the JOLTs job openings though. Factory order (April) came in at -3.7 per cent against the forecast of -3.2 per cent as the prior data was revised lower from 4.3 per cent to 3.4 per cent. Durable goods order (April final) at -6.3 per cent were in line with the forecast. JOLTs job openings (April) surprisingly beat the forecast as openings rose from 72,00,000 to 73,91,000 as against the forecast of 71,00,000. However, the internals of the JOLTs report was not so encouraging as layoffs increased from 1 per cent to 1.1 per cent and the quits rate dropped from 2.1 per cent to 2 per cent indicating reduced prospects of finding a new job. In addition, vacancies in industries like manufacturing and food services declined. The Euro-zone's inflation cooled more than expected as consumer prices rose 1.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in May, trailing the forecast of 2 per cent; the reading was cooler than the prior data of 2.2 per cent. The data bolsters the case for the ECB cutting its key rates by 25 bps in its monetary policy meeting to be held on June 5. Elsewhere, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI (May) fell to 48.3, the lowest since September 2022, from 50.40 in April as trade frictions weighed on the nation's manufacturing sector. ALSO READ | US dollar index and yields: The US dollar index, at the time of writing, was 99.24, up around 0.60 per cent on the day, as the Index recovered from a six-week low ahead of the US ISM services and nonfarm payroll reports. US 10-year yields at 4.46 per cent were up by nearly 0.50 per cent OECD's warning: The OECD slashed its global economic forecasts on trade war leading to uncertainty on business confidence and investment. The organisation sees global economic growth at 2.9 per cent in 2025 from its earlier forecast of 3.1 per cent made in March as the US growth is expected to be 1.6 per cent as compared to its earlier estimate of 2.2 per cent. The OECD forecasts a global growth of 2.9 per cent in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 3 per cent. The organisation warned that fiscal risks are intensifying around the world with tremendous pressure for spending on defence, climate and aging population. ETF: Total known global ETF silver holdings, as of May 2, stood at 741.23MOz—highest since 20 November 2024. Silver ETF holdings are up by 4.95 per cent this year as holdings recorded net inflows for four straight weeks. Robert Kiyosaki on Silver: According to the Rich Dad Poor Dad author, silver has the potential to triple in value, calling the asset the biggest bargain of 2025. Outlook: As risk appetite is healthy and silver ETF holdings are rising, silver is likely to do well unless the US dollar rises sharply, or extreme risk aversion takes center stage. In this scenario, it is advisable to 'buy the dips' as the metal is expected to test the key resistance at $35 (₹102,500). A decisive breach of these levels may take the metal quickly to $37 (₹1,08,000). In the near term, the $33.50-$33.70 (₹98,200-₹98,800) zone will act as a key support zone.
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Business Standard
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
How to trade gold on Akshaya Tritiya? Praveen Singh of Mirae Asset suggests
Gold – Slightly lower on further reprieve on tariff front On April 29, spit gold swung between $3,299 and $3,349 and was changing hands at $3,322, down around 0.65 per cent on the day, at the time of writing. MCX June contract at Rs 95,640 was down by nearly 0.40 per cent. Notwithstanding disappointing data out of the US, spot gold was slightly lower as US President Trump will be signing orders to remove tariffs on some of auto imports. In addition, investors are still hopeful that US-China trade tension may ease further. Data roundup: US data released Tuesday were disappointing as advance trade balance (March) came in at record -$162 billion Vs the estimate of -$145b as imports surged to beat tariff deadlines. Larger than expected US trade deficit would reduce Q1 GDP as imports would get subtracted from the GDP figure. As per a Bloomberg estimate, trade may reduce close to 3 per cent points from top-line GDP growth on a surge in consumer goods imports, though gold imports need to be excluded from this calculation. JOLTs job openings (March) at 7192K were well short of the 7500K estimate and prior data of 7568K was revised lower. JOLTs openings have fallen to the lowest since January 2021 barring September 2024 data. JOLTs job opening rate fell from 4.5 per cent to 4.3 per cent and trailed the forecast of 4.5 per cent. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April) fell from 93.90 (revised higher from 92.90) to 86, lowest since May 2020, as expectations deteriorated the most since May 2011. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1 per cent) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession as expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years. The details indicate that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. Elsewhere, European Central Bank's 1-year and 3-year expectations (March) at 2.9 per cent and 3.3 per cent were hotter than respective expected data of 2.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent. The ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said that the Central Bank should be cautious on further rate cuts due to the uncertain global economic environment. It is possible that the ECB may halt its rate cuts temporarily after a 25-bps cut at the next meeting. US Dollar Index and yields: Ten-year US yields slid nearly 1 per cent to 4.16 per cent, lowest since April 7 as weak US economic indicators boosted rate cut bets. Similarly, two-year yields eased about 1 per cent to 3.65 per cent, lowest since April 9. Despite lower yields, the US Dollar Index at 99.03 was slightly higher as hopes concerning tariffs supported the greenback. Upcoming data: Major US data on tap on April 30 include ADP employment change (April), 1Q Advance GDP annualized, personal consumption (1Q Advance), Employment cost Index (1Q) and real personal spending (March). Investors will also monitor Germany's PPI and CPI (April prel.) along with China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs and Caixin China manufacturing (all April). ETF: Total known global gold ETF holdings as of April 28 stood at 89.072MOz, lowest since April 14, as holdings fell for the fifth straight day as investors booked profits. Nonetheless, ETF holdings are up nearly 7.5 per cent YTD. COMEX gold inventory: COMEX gold inventory was noted to be 41.619MOz on April 28, down over 7 per cent from the record high inventory of 45.072MOz recorded on April 4. COMEX gold inventory may be coming down on reversal of gold flow; thus, gold going back from New York to London. US-China trade standoff: On April 28, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it is up to China to take the first step to de-escalate trade tensions. However, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a BRICs meeting on Monday urged countries to stand firm and resist 'bully' Trump. The Foreign Ministry has vowed that Beijing won't budge. However, investors remain hopeful that China will eventually de-escalate as Beijing suspended tariffs on some of US imports including medical equipment, plane leases and at least eight semiconductor-related products. US President Trump is expected to sign orders to exempt some auto foreign parts for cars and trucks made inside the US and give imported automobiles a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel. Outlook: Major focus of investors is on US-China trade developments. Unless both the countries come together to sort out their differences, gold is likely to be well supported, though reversal of gold flow from New York to London is somewhat negative for the metal. US data continues to disappoint. Weaker than expected JOLTs opening and a multi-year low Conference Board consumer confidence data reflect a weakening economy, which would weaken further as trade war continues. Conference Board consumer confidence data fell for the fifth straight month. China choosing not to respond to the US to initiate trade talks means trade friction between world's two largest economies is likely to continue in at least near-term, which will keep the yellow metal supported. If there is no major positive development on trade issues, dip buying is the preferred strategy. The metal may test $3372-$3400 resistance zone. Upside is likely to be capped at $3400 in the short-term.
