Latest news with #JPmorgan
Daily Mail
2 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Why gold mining shares are too cheap, according to JP Morgan analysts
After a strong run for precious metals, gold mining shares still look undervalued. That's the view from JP Morgan's latest note on listed producers, which argues there's room for substantial upside, especially if its bullish forecast for the precious metal proves right. Its commodities team is pencilling in a price of $4,100 an ounce for 2026. That's well above current spot levels of $3,320 and would mark a new all-time high. Based on that estimate, JP Morgan sees around 40–50 per cent upside to average analyst expectations for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation across the sector. While the American bank focused on the larger producers, citing names such as Fresnillo and Hochschild, there's plenty of value lower down the evolutionary chain. Stocks on this layer of the pyramid are increasingly disconnected from the rising gold price, rather than moving in step. Of course, being small and mid-cap companies, it often takes time for the market to focus on inherent value, even when backed by gold. These smaller players are also more prone to operational mis-steps that larger organisations can absorb. Below is a far-from-scientific roll call of gold stocks that have thus far flown under the radar. Probably the pick of the bunch is Pan African Resources, which, with a £940 million market capitalisation, has broken free from the small-cap bracket. While its share price is up around 30 per cent year to date, it still lags the performance of Endeavour (+51 per cent) and Fresnillo (+80 per cent). Dropping down a division, Caledonia Mining stands out. Its performance has been stronger than Premier African and it comes with a very decent dividend. As valuations shrink, the link between the gold price and share price weakens. A case in point is Ariana Resources, which has modest production from its Turkish operations but ambitious growth plans in Zimbabwe. Panmure Liberum analysts, fresh from a site visit to Ariana's Dokwe project, described it as a potential multi-million-ounce asset with strong development prospects. That optimism is in stark contrast to Ariana's stock market performance, down more than 40 per cent year to date. It suggests value and opportunity may be buried in AIM's twilight zone. Ariana is preparing to list in Australia, a savvy move in a market where investors, both private and institutional, know how to value smaller gold companies. Appetite for diggers and prospectors is strong, supported by self-directed flows from Australia's generous superannuation schemes. So, watch this space. Wider market moves Turning to the wider market, the AIM All-Share continued to outperform its benchmark, rising 1.3 per cent to 746.39 and outpacing the FTSE 100, which nudged just 0.4 per cent higher. This reflects growing confidence, underlined by a slew of successful fundraisings that made May a bumper month for companies replenishing their coffers. The week's standout performer was Blue Star Capital, which jumped 150 per cent after news of its investment in cross-border crypto payments platform SatoshiPay. Avacta rose 43 per cent, a performance that would have topped the leaderboard most weeks. The appointment of two heavyweight independent directors helped ease investor concerns over a delay to the company's results. One of the new recruits, Richard Hughes, brings deep capital markets experience, possibly signalling a strategic shift for the precision medicines group. ATOME climbed 35 per cent following the launch of a new renewable energy division, initially focused on Latin America. And the laggards… At the other end of the table, Totally fell 84 per cent as investors digested the healthcare provider's semingly insurmountable funding position. Watkin Jones dropped 21 per cent after the developer of student housing and build-to-rent properties posted a loss and painted a gloomy picture of current trading. Finally, the small-cap market, especially where trading is thin or controlled by market makers, tends to react sharply to news, with professional price-setters often moving to protect positions rather than reflect true value. A case in point is hVIVO. Shares slumped 45 per cent on Friday following the loss of one contract and the postponement of another. Seasoned small-cap investors will know that sanity usually prevails, but it can take time for stocks like hVIVO to find their footing. In the meantime, it's worth remembering this is a business with £47million of contracted revenue already secured for the current year and, as of its last results, £44million in cash.
Zawya
2 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
India GDP growth likely accelerated in March quarter on rural demand, state spending
NEW DELHI - India's economic growth likely picked up pace in the January–March quarter, buoyed by stronger rural demand and higher government spending, even as private firms delayed investments amid global uncertainties. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown 6.7% year-on-year in the March quarter, up from 6.2% in the previous three months, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Rural consumption improved during the quarter, while urban demand indicators remained mixed, said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank Economic Research. Investment was supported by government spending, she said. The Ministry of Statistics will release March-quarter GDP data and provisional estimates for the 2024-25 (April-March) fiscal year on Friday at 1030 GMT. Some economists expect GDP growth to print significantly above expectations due to a fall in government subsidies. But they caution that true economic growth, as measured by gross value added (GVA), will be lower than the headline number. The calculation of GDP includes indirect taxes and government subsidy payouts which tend to be volatile, while GVA strips out those components. JP Morgan expects March quarter GDP growth at 7.5% year-on-year, while GVA growth is seen lower at 6.7% compared to 6.2% in the previous quarter. RELATIVELY INSULATED India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), expects GDP growth at 6.5% in the fiscal year beginning April 1. At that rate, India remains the fastest growing among major economies and its size could match Japan's this year at $4.18 trillion, according to projections by the IMF. Economists said while the global outlook has weakened amid escalating trade tensions, India appears relatively insulated due to lower dependence on goods trade, tax cuts announced by the government in February and lower interest rates. "Despite the various downside risks, we think the policy coordination between the government and the RBI remains the strongest at this juncture," said Kaushik Das, India chief economist at Deutsche Bank, adding that authorities are showing strong resolve to do "whatever it takes" to support growth. Retail inflation, which eased to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April, alongside a favourable monsoon forecast, is expected to keep food prices in check and pave the way for another policy repo rate cut by the RBI in June. The government's income tax relief, recent fiscal measures and central bank rate cuts, could lift growth to 6.3%–6.8% in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said.
The National
2 days ago
- Business
- The National
Expansion push to help JP Morgan double its Middle East revenue by 2030
Middle East revenue for JP Morgan Chase has almost doubled in the past five years and the biggest US lender expects to grow it by another 50 per cent at least by the end of the decade, the bank's Europe, Middle East and Africa chief executive has said. With about 10 per cent yearly growth from 2020 until the end of last year, the Middle East is the fastest growing market within the bank's broader Emea business, Filippo Gori, who is also the co-head of Global Bank at JP Morgan, told The National in Dubai. The wider Emea was a key contributor to JP Morgan Group's total global revenue of $180 billion last year. 'From 2020 to 2024, it has grown substantially … faster than the rest of the region,' Mr Gori said. 'What I can tell you is that, over the next five years, we believe that the revenues will grow another 50 per cent from here, so the cumulative growth over a decade would definitely be of more than doubling the revenues.' The lender, which has been part of some of the biggest public floats, debt market and mergers and acquisitions deals in the Middle East over the past five years, has grown above the region's economic expansion rate and gained market share. JP Morgan is convinced of the longer-term growth prospects of the region, which Mr Gori said is a major beneficiary of capital movement in the Global South. Geopolitical headwinds and short-term macroeconomic turbulence have no bearing on JP Morgan's commitment to the region, where it has been operating for almost nine decades. 'So, we don't make decisions based on macroeconomic factors that could impact things in the next two years, three years, five years. Clearly, you always want to have a view around that, the headwinds that we could be facing,' Mr Gori said. 'But if we believe the narrative, and we do believe the narrative that this region is going to be one of the winners of the Global South and relocation of capital, then you just invest.' Expansion drive All lines of JP Morgan's business, whether banking and markets, or asset and wealth management, have their separate plans for growth and investments in the region. Payments as a product is also becoming an increasingly important part of the growth strategy in this part of the world, Mr Gori said. 'You enter a country, or invest in a region, you're there forever,' he said. 'And what we're doing here is that we're investing for the next 20 to 25 years.' International financial institutions, regional banks and global asset managers have either expanded their operations or set up new offices in the Gulf region in the past few years. They aim to attract more business from sovereign wealth funds, family offices, wealthy individuals and large institutional clients. The growing financing needs of Gulf nations to fund their respective economic diversification drives have also resulted in the expansion in corporate banking operations. The sustained momentum in regional initial public offerings and a robust rise in the debt capital market activity have supported the market. With the rapid rise of personal wealth, boosting the number of wealth managers has also been a primary focus for asset management companies in recent years. JP Morgan plans to add more than 100 staff across the Middle East, Mary Callahan Erdoes, chief executive of the firm's asset and wealth management, said earlier this month. The move will boost the bank's regional staffing levels to about 500 from the current 370, she told delegates at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha. Growth markets The UAE and Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's top economies, remain the biggest and main drivers of growth in the Middle East and Africa region, Mr Gori said. 'From the way we think about it, both markets need to grow. They have slightly idiosyncratic reasons for growth, which don't necessarily match,' he said. 'We need to invest both in our presence in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and in our presence in Riyadh, if we want to capture those opportunities.' Plans are already in place to grow certain parts of the businesses in both markets, he said, declining to give specifics. Saudi Arabia is larger both in terms of equity and debt capital market activity, but the deals flow has been equally robust in the UAE. The IPO momentum in the region has driven the equity market business at a faster rate than the debt market, which is usually larger for banks around the world. 'This region has done better on ECM than DCM, for sure. So, it's kind of counter cyclical to the rest of the world,' Mr Gori said. Engine of growth Deal activity will continue to be driven by IPOs, while the rising financing needs of Gulf sovereigns for their multibillion-dollar development projects will also support future growth. While Saudi Arabia has hit some of its Vision 2030 milestones, it does not mean a slowdown in deal activity, Mr Gori said. 'I think it's business as usual in my opinion. Things come and go on as long as the narrative is correct and there is a trend, activity will come,' he said. 'There is the excitement for the region, and therefore we expect more deal activity to come.' While investment banking deals tend to be very visible and attract attention for a variety of different reasons, the actual engine of revenue growth is usually other lines of business, he said. 'Payments and markets, businesses are a larger proportion of the revenues than that of the investment banking,' Mr Gori said. 'The 50 per cent growth [over the next five years] will come from all the other lines of business from payment, securities, asset management market and so forth.'
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
India GDP growth likely accelerated in March quarter on rural demand, state spending
NEW DELHI, May 30 (Reuters) - India's economic growth likely picked up pace in the January–March quarter, buoyed by stronger rural demand and higher government spending, even as private firms delayed investments amid global uncertainties. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown 6.7% year-on-year in the March quarter, up from 6.2% in the previous three months, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Rural consumption improved during the quarter, while urban demand indicators remained mixed, said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank Economic Research. Investment was supported by government spending, she said. The Ministry of Statistics will release March-quarter GDP data and provisional estimates for the 2024-25 (April-March) fiscal year on Friday at 1030 GMT. Some economists expect GDP growth to print significantly above expectations due to a fall in government subsidies. But they caution that true economic growth, as measured by gross value added (GVA), will be lower than the headline number. The calculation of GDP includes indirect taxes and government subsidy payouts which tend to be volatile, while GVA strips out those components. JP Morgan expects March quarter GDP growth at 7.5% year-on-year, while GVA growth is seen lower at 6.7% compared to 6.2% in the previous quarter. India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), expects GDP growth at 6.5% in the fiscal year beginning April 1. At that rate, India remains the fastest growing among major economies and its size could match Japan's this year at $4.18 trillion, according to projections by the IMF. Economists said while the global outlook has weakened amid escalating trade tensions, India appears relatively insulated due to lower dependence on goods trade, tax cuts announced by the government in February and lower interest rates. "Despite the various downside risks, we think the policy coordination between the government and the RBI remains the strongest at this juncture," said Kaushik Das, India chief economist at Deutsche Bank, adding that authorities are showing strong resolve to do "whatever it takes" to support growth. Retail inflation, which eased to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April, alongside a favourable monsoon forecast, is expected to keep food prices in check and pave the way for another policy repo rate (INREPO=ECI), opens new tab cut by the RBI in June. The government's income tax relief, recent fiscal measures and central bank rate cuts, could lift growth to 6.3%–6.8% in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said.
Finextra
3 days ago
- Business
- Finextra
EBAday 2025: Are we ready for ISO 20022?
Is the market ready for the end of the coexistence of ISO and MT messages? What remains to be done in the next few months to realise ISO 20022's full benefits? 0 The afternoon session discussing the end of the ISO 20022 coexistence period was moderated by Kjeld Herreman, founding partner at Paylume, and featured a panel of experts including Christopher Gardner, ISO 20022 programme and change execution director at Deutsche Bank; Domenico Scaffidi, market infrastructure advisor - payments innovation, Bank of England, SAP Member, and executive director at Unifits; Justin Brearley-Smith, global product lead at J.P. Morgan; Sylvain Dauge, product manager - cash clearing services at Société Générale; and Vitus Rotzer, chief product officer - financial messaging global at Bottomline. Herreman began by outlining the specifics of the upcoming ISO 20022 deadline. Highlighting statistics from Swift that forecast 91% readiness by November 2025, as well as a poll to the audience that revealed that 43% of audience members have achieved all outgoing messages in ISO 20022 (interestingly, the next largest answer were the least prepared), he asked the panel about general ISO 20022 readiness across the industry. Brearley-Smith highlighted: 'It certainly seems that our audience here are ahead of the global adoption rates[..], but I honestly think what we'll see is an actual sort of vertical in November with a big bang. We'll probably see some gentle adoption between now and FedWire migration in July, so we'll see the adoption go up. We're at 40% now, so maybe 50, 55%. And then I think we'll plateau before we get to a big bang in November. The reason why I think we'll have this big bang is that we've got another big change coming in in November. It's not just the end of the [coexistence for] payment messages, but we've got hybrid address coming in as well. So I think for those that aren't sending MX now or mid-July/August, they won't be able to go through two rounds of testing and two big implementations in a short time span.' The panel highlighted that many organisations will likely rely have to rely on in-flow translation before achieving the ability to go fully native. 'It's a bit like a long weekend that we have in front of us,' Rotzer commented. 'Everyone takes the highway and we get a traffic jam with all the projects that are ongoing. [..] The key is engaging and aligning with system providers. Everyone is doing initiation, coming in is not really an issue, but they need to manage it properly within different systems, including subsystems. If you haven't started yet, you will be late and, at best, tick the box.' Getting away from translation as quickly as possible is important to achieve the full benefits of ISO 20022, yet Scaffidi emphasised that not all organisations have the resources to effectively go ISO-native. The Swift numbers 'are coming from 175 banks, but what about the other 2000 financal institutions that are medium and small? They do not have the resources to afford the proper migration with all the value that we are discussing today. So there is another important risk that we need to take into account, which is systemic risk.' A second audience poll revealed that 60% of organisations in attendance were opting for a fully native approach, 23% were relying on a mix between being ISO native and relying on translation, and 18% were primarily relying on translation. 'It's really positive to see the native processing,' Gardner stated. 'But I understand the need and necessity for some organisations to use translation depending on the complexity of the architecture.' He continued that as more payment market infrastructures require structural remittance information (e.g., Fedwire with the tax IDs for IRS payments), banks can only meet this demand if they have this information coming in to them as well. Importantly, this upcoming November deadline is just the start of the journey, with Brearley-Smith equating ISO 20022 as the first movie of a blockbuster franchise. He expects reporting and advising to be the next migration priority, with case and enquiry investigation being another crucial aspect. 'It's worth highlighting that the complexities with some of those sequels is not to be underestimated,' Gardner added. 'Case management, for example, isn't like payment messages, where we have just a change of message type and data. This is a holistic change to how the industry is reporting the management of investigations and exceptions. So I ask everyone: Please be working on this now, because it's not going to be long until this comes in.' The panellists additionally highlighted the importance of engaging corporates, and emphasising that a failure to 'produce the use cases for corporates is a failure of migration.' Ultimately, standardisation and richer data will have benefits for the entire industry, however, that is only achievable if the migration is tackled holistically rather than as a tick-box exercise.
