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The Citizen
3 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Gold and platinum shares steal the show as JSE cracks new high
Year-to-date returns range from 90% to 161% for leading gold and platinum counters. Gold and platinum shares have stolen the show on the JSE this year, with returns as high as 161% in the case of Sibanye Stillwater, helping power the JSE to new highs on Tuesday as the All Share index cracked 101 200. 'Much like the US's Magnificent Seven leading Wall Street's rally, South Africa boasts its own 'Incredible 10', says Kea Nonyana, market analyst at Scope Prime. 'These ten stocks have been responsible for a remarkable 94% of the SWIX's year-to-date gain of 20.8%, with the top three alone driving 52% of the advance. The top two are Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti, with platinum group miners (PGM) also leading the charge.' One of the big investment stories of the year has been the surge in precious metals, bringing respectability to the overall JSE performance. Besides Sibanye Stillwater's surge, AngloGold Ashanti is up 151% so far this year, Gold Fields and Northam Platinum both up 128%, Impala Platinum 95% and Harmony Gold 90%. 'I don't see gold back down again,' says TF Metals report founder Craig Hemke. 'Gold has proven that its rally is sustainable and for sustainable reasons.' Gold is up 28% this year, trading this week at $3 340 an ounce. Platinum is up nearly 50%, breaking above its previous 2022 high, with palladium clocking a 25% gain so far in 2025. Gold's surge since 2024 has been sparked by tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, a weaker US dollar, central bank buying, and stubborn inflation in the US. ALSO READ: JSE All Share Index hit 100k points Mining stocks shine Comparing the JSE's average annual return over the last decade of roughly 11% with the S&P 500's around 15% a year, suggests one would be far better off investing abroad. That said, there have been some spectacular performers on the JSE so far this year – most of them in the mining sector. AngloGold Ashanti reported a more than three-fold increase in profits for the half year to June 2025, while Gold Fields' recent trading statement says it expects a 203% to 236% increase in headline earnings for the six months to June 2025. The JSE's 24% year-to-date growth is driven largely by mining counters, with platinum and gold standing out, says Shiven Moodley, CEO of Novaque Research. 'Platinum is up roughly 46% so far this year and gold 28%. The underlying drivers remain a blend of macro, geopolitical, and structural supply-demand dynamics. 'Geopolitical tensions continue to push safe haven flows. Central bank stockpiling is supporting gold with continued accumulation in reserves. Some could be attributed to demand shift away from gold to platinum for jewellery, while vehicle demand in this interest rate cycle supports the demand for catalytic converters for manufacturing. There is a potential headwind for South African production impacting supply,' adds Moodley. ALSO READ: Why the sudden shine in gold again? 'For now, the precious metal market looks supportive of further upside, despite risk of de-escalation in geopolitical events. Platinum futures remain positioned as net long, supporting a bullish bias, however, we saw profit taking in early August. Gold remains net long, with contracts increasing over the first week of August, sighting a fresh conviction for bullish bias,' adds Moodley. JP Morgan sees gold breaking $4 000 an ounce by the third quarter of 2026, should geopolitical risks remain elevated, while the metal has historically tended to perform well in times of a weak US dollar and lower US interest rates. 'We still think risks are skewed toward an earlier overshoot of our forecasts if demand continues to surprise our expectations,' said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at JP Morgan. 'For investors, we think gold remains one of the most optimal hedges for the unique combination of stagflation, recession, debasement, and US policy risks facing markets in 2025 and 2026.' This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.
The Star
24-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
SA markets under pressure as geopolitical tensions escalate and US Fed signals caution
Siphelele Dludla | Published 4 days ago South African markets traded on the backfoot on Thursday on the back of geopolitical risks arising from the war in the Middle East and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) revised down its growth forecasts for the US. The rand fell 0.6% to R18.12 against the US dollar during early morning trade but still remained above the R18-mark by late afternoon while the JSE All Share Index eased by 0.2% to 94 785 points. The markets have remained on edge across the world as the war between Israel and Iran has intensified, pushing global oil prices to their highest in four months. An Iranian missile barrage left at least 240 people wounded as they struck several sites across Israel, damaging a hospital in the country's south while targeting a military site. Israel also attacked Iran's Arak heavy water nuclear reactor as the two countries traded fire for a seventh consecutive day. The war in the Middle East saw the Brent crude oil price rising 1.7% above $78 per barrel on Thursday as the main concern for the oil market remains the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for a fifth of global crude. Oil prices are now trading nearly 9% higher since Israel's initial strikes on Iran, with energy markets increasingly pricing in the chance of deeper supply disruptions. Adding to tensions, senior US officials are reportedly preparing for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days, signaling Washington's readiness to enter the conflict. However, mixed signals remain, as the White House has given little indication of whether the US would support strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group - an independent financial advisory and asset management firm - said global financial markets were likely to suffer a rapid and sharp selloff if the US launches direct military strikes against Iran. Green said a direct US military intervention could push crude significantly higher, especially if key infrastructure or shipping lanes are affected. 'The world economy is not in a strong position to absorb another energy shock,' Green said. 'If oil spikes from here, inflation expectations will shift, interest rate cut expectations will fade, and that would create a double blow for equities already priced for perfection.' Separately, the US Fed on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting but signaled two possible cuts by year-end. However, the Fed trimmed one cut for both 2026 and 2027, with the bank raising its inflation outlook and lowering its growth forecast. It comes as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation. The Fed noted that the increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity, adding that the effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level— and could instead be more persistent. It said the effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Investec chief economist, Annabel Bishop, said the markets have been particularly worried about the increased chance of a weakening in the US economic environment following trade and other policy changes in the US, while uncertainty is high, adding to risk aversion for investors. 'Concerns persist that the Fed is leaving it too late to cut interest rates in the face of sudden economic weakness, while the Federal Open Markets Committee says if either growth or inflation is too far from their goal, they will react depending on how far either is from their goal,' Bishop said. 'SA is still expected to see further interest rate cuts this year, with CPI inflation once again came out below the 3-6% year-on-year inflation target, unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year in May on high base effects and suppressed demand in a low growth environment.' BUSINESS REPORT
IOL News
19-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
SA markets under pressure as geopolitical tensions escalate and US Fed signals caution
Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE The rand fell 0.6% to R18.12 against the US dollar during early morning trade but still remained above the R18-mark by late afternoon while the JSE All Share Index eased by 0.2% to 94 785 points. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP South African markets traded on the backfoot on Thursday on the back of geopolitical risks arising from the war in the Middle East and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) revised down its growth forecasts for the US. The rand fell 0.6% to R18.12 against the US dollar during early morning trade but still remained above the R18-mark by late afternoon while the JSE All Share Index eased by 0.2% to 94 785 points. The markets have remained on edge across the world as the war between Israel and Iran has intensified, pushing global oil prices to their highest in four months. An Iranian missile barrage left at least 240 people wounded as they struck several sites across Israel, damaging a hospital in the country's south while targeting a military site. Israel also attacked Iran's Arak heavy water nuclear reactor as the two countries traded fire for a seventh consecutive day. The war in the Middle East saw the Brent crude oil price rising 1.7% above $78 per barrel on Thursday as the main concern for the oil market remains the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for a fifth of global crude. Oil prices are now trading nearly 9% higher since Israel's initial strikes on Iran, with energy markets increasingly pricing in the chance of deeper supply disruptions. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Adding to tensions, senior US officials are reportedly preparing for a possible strike on Iran in the coming days, signaling Washington's readiness to enter the conflict. However, mixed signals remain, as the White House has given little indication of whether the US would support strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group - an independent financial advisory and asset management firm - said global financial markets were likely to suffer a rapid and sharp selloff if the US launches direct military strikes against Iran. Green said a direct US military intervention could push crude significantly higher, especially if key infrastructure or shipping lanes are affected. 'The world economy is not in a strong position to absorb another energy shock,' Green said. 'If oil spikes from here, inflation expectations will shift, interest rate cut expectations will fade, and that would create a double blow for equities already priced for perfection.' Separately, the US Fed on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting but signaled two possible cuts by year-end. However, the Fed trimmed one cut for both 2026 and 2027, with the bank raising its inflation outlook and lowering its growth forecast. It comes as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation. The Fed noted that the increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity, adding that the effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level— and could instead be more persistent. It said the effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined.
IOL News
18-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
South Africa's markets on edge amid Middle East tensions and Fed uncertainty
The JSE All Share Index fell 0.7% to 94 695 by 4pm while the rand was weak and traded above the R18.80-mark against the US dollar. Image: Supplied South Africa's markets faced a turbulent day on Tuesday as they traded on the backfoot, grappling with the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Open Markets Committee's (FOMC) upcoming decision on interest rates. The JSE All Share Index fell 0.7% to 94 695 by 4pm while the rand was weak and traded above the R18.80-mark against the US dollar after reaching R17.70/$1 as the severe escalation in the conflict in the Middle East has increased market risk aversion. Stocks such as Karooooo, Assura and Harmony Gold saw the most declines, falling 4.55%, 4% and 3.3%, respectively. However, the marked US dollar weakness of the second quarter continued to persist amid heightened volatility. The escalation of conflict in the region reached new peaks following a stark warning from US President Donald Trump, who urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran. This statement has intensified fears regarding a possible escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, contributing to an anxious trading atmosphere. According to reports, Iran has threatened to execute what it claims will be the largest ballistic missile assault on Israel within the next few days, in response to Israel's military targeting of its governmental facilities. A key concern is potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 18–19 million barrels per day, or roughly 20% of global oil consumption, passes. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading Oil prices remain supported by the ongoing turmoil, while gold continues to attract safe-haven flows. The oil price jumped to $74 (R1 318) per barrel on the intensification of the war in the Middle East after dipping to $60 per barrel last month. On average for the month to date the oil price is higher but counterbalanced by rand strength against the US dollar. Gold climbed above $3 390 per ounce on Tuesday, extending gains as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The rand strength against the US dollar is currently overshadowing the impact of the jump in the oil price, with a very small cut in the oil price signalled, although further escalation in the international oil price would wipe this out. Investec chief economist, Annabel Bishop, said the US dollar's weakness has been driven by the volatility in US policy, particularly on trade, as the US has hiked tariffs steeply on countries worldwide then paused, or rolled them back, creating uncertainty over the US economy and global growth. 'While the rand has gained against US dollar weakness, it is still weaker against the euro and pound this quarter as risk aversion elevated,' Bishop said. 'With concerns that the war in the Middle-East will last for weeks not days as some had hoped, financial market sentiment has become risk averse, but the US dollar remains suppressed, only seeing a very slight lessening in weakness. 'The rand has consequently only seen very modest weakness against the US dollar compared to last week, with most of the movement coming from the rand against the crosses.'
IOL News
14-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
JSE shatters records as global markets celebrate US-China trade deal
the JSE All Share Index soared by 0.5% to 93 072 points on Wednesday just after beginning early morning trade before snapping those gains to end at 92 441 points by 5pm. Image: Nicola Mawson / Independent Newspapers Stocks on the JSE defied disheartening local employment figures and rallied to a fresh record high on Wednesday, surging past the 93 000-points mark as the easing tensions between the US and China also buoyed global markets. The world's two largest economies have agreed to cut the hefty import tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days whilst negotiations for a permanent deal are underway. The US will lower those tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China's retaliatory tariffs on US goods will drop to 10% from 125%. US President Donald Trump said weekend talks had resulted in a "total reset" in trade terms between the US and China. As the markets cheered the news, the JSE All Share Index soared by 0.5% to 93 072 points on Wednesday just after beginning early morning trade before snapping those gains to end at 92 487 points by 5pm. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said the JSE tended to run on the momentum behind international stock exchanges due to the international companies' listings on it. 'When investor sentiment improves globally, such as the recent roll-back in many tariffs previously announced in April, then the outlook for global growth improves and so for equities, benefiting stock exchanges,' Bishop said. 'Over the past weekend the US and China agreed a trade deal to cut back most of the recent tariff hikes and the sharp de-escalation in the trade war has reduced risk aversion in financial markets.' Leading the rally on the JSE was Sappi, which rose 3.3% to R33.34 per share and followed by Datatec at 3% higher to R63.23 per share and Truworths rose 2.9% to R76.22 per share. Mike Gresty, fund manager at Anchor Capital, highlighted the JSE's biggest weighted stocks as one of the reasons for the rally. 'I note that Naspers/Prosus are up about 2.5% on the back of Tencent's move today and its results announced after the close Hong Kong time. I suspect that has a lot to do with the overall market being up today,' Gresty said. The market's cheer comes on the back of South Africa's unemployment rate increasing to 32.9% in the first three months of 2025 from 31.9% in the last three months of 2024 as the number of the employed fell more than the decline of the labour force. The rising unemployment rate brings into question the government's intervention to deal with structural constraints, deterioration in economic conditions and boost investor confidence. However, the JSE has risen 4.4% from a month ago and by 10.1% in the year-to-date as it has continued to break records until the onset of the trade war from the imposition of the US tariffs. Momentum Investments chief economist, Sanisha Packirisamy, also pointed to the global markets breathing a sigh of relief after the US and China temporarily suspended their tariffs. 'The SA equity market is very geared to what happens globally, with a majority of its earnings coming from offshore, rather than being tied to domestic developments,' Packirisamy said. 'Trump's backtracking on tariffs and an alleviation in volatility measures have seen the markets rebound strongly, including in South Africa.' Visit:
