Latest news with #JackAblin
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Wealth Firm Cresset Taps Private Credit to Weather Market Swings
Wealth management firm Cresset Capital has turned to private credit to boost client returns as President Donald Trump's on-off tariffs policy stokes turbulence across financial markets. The Chicago-based company, which manages more than $65 billion on behalf of clients, has increased its allocation to private credit to as much as 20% in one of its strategies, said Chief Investment Officer Jack Ablin. Cresset wasn't involved in that market at all prior to 2022 because the risk was too high relative to returns, he said.
Reuters
07-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Investors look to soft data for direction amid trade policy chaos
Summary Nervous investors turn increasingly to soft economic data Seeking guidance, some find robust hard data out of date Amid market tumult, there is quest for new indicators May 7 (Reuters) - Whipsawing U.S. trade policies are forcing some investors to lean more on anecdotal data to help them make decisions, as concrete official indicators become out-of-date too quickly in the rapidly changing environment. Dramatic shifts in policy, such as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff announcements last month, mean so-called hard indicators, including quantitative metrics like unemployment rates, job creation, retail sales and prices, are of limited use when they are released. That is prompting investors to increasingly take cues from sentiment surveys or anecdotal "soft data", which may be more subjective but offer a more up-to-date read on conditions. "The lack of tangible information on a real-time basis means we have to rely on what the soft data is telling us," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. He said he was preparing a client presentation based almost entirely on data about consumer sentiment, investor outlook and business confidence levels. "I can't think of too many environments that have been like this." Trump's tariff plans, first announced on April 2 and modified, expanded and rescinded many times in the weeks since then, have shaken up business as usual on Wall Street. While hard data on employment and consumer prices suggest the economy remains resilient, soft data paints a different picture on consumer confidence and the level of business activity in both services and manufacturing. Investors look at both data sources, although in times of pronounced uncertainty tilt in favor of soft data. "It's all about the soft data: if consumers aren't feeling good, they won't spend and then the economy will suffer," said Jason Britton, chief investment officer of Reflection Asset Management, adding that consumer sentiment surveys are published "in nearly real time" rather than with a lag. "If you want to know what the future might look like, then you want to look at the soft data," agreed Malcolm Polley, chief investment strategist for Stratos Investment Management. But he added, "don't pay attention to it in a vacuum or it just becomes noise." PLAYING CATCHUP Signals sent by hard and soft data can diverge and sometimes fail to paint an accurate picture of what lies ahead. In 2022, when consumer sentiment surveys showed plunging confidence, forecasts of a recession abounded. But a tight labor market and stronger household balance sheets meant consumers kept spending and no recession materialized. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, expects the hard data this time around to confirm the worsening in conditions but notes there will be a lot of noise to cut through. "We're going to see a lot of funky data that you're going to have to go through with a fine-tooth comb," she said. Some market participants are seeking soft data beyond traditional surveys. "During times of uncertainty like this, every event or data point has a very large influence on prices and causes volatility," said Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. "So that's why you need to go above and beyond" in the pursuit of new data inputs. Harvey is paying more attention to alternative indicators, such as those offered by Polymarket, a blockchain-backed prediction market. Polymarket users wager on everything from the likelihood of a recession to the price of eggs. Harvey says these are worth heeding because believes such bets are made by people based on their conversations with business partners, suppliers and customers. Mike Reynolds, vice president of investment research at Glenmede, is considering new metrics, such as the number of overseas travelers visiting the United States, as he tries to gauge the tariff fallout. In March, foreign spending on travel to the United States fell by $1.3 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Tuesday, the largest such decline since the pandemic. "We do think that we need to change our approach and get creative in our approach to data to get any insight into what's happening," Reynolds said. "We want to look at anything that will give us an edge, because in this uncertainty doing anything -- or nothing -- is risky." GETTING IT RIGHT To be sure, some still prefer hard data. "I was in the investment business 35 years and I learned to ignore the survey data and look at the actual data," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a press conference last week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April the bank was "closely watching this tension between the hard and soft data." The Fed announces its rate decision on Wednesday. Some warn against over-reliance on soft data. "Surveys pick up more feeling rather than action (so) they might not correspond to economic activity to the same extent that hard data do," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in an interview. Soft data is also more likely send out false alarms, as happened in 2022, Hatzius added. "Many people said, this is the recession," he said. "We didn't."
Business Times
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US: Stocks end mostly up, rebounding from bad GDP report
[NEW YORK] Wall Street stocks finished mostly higher on Wednesday (Apr 30) after digesting a poor US GDP reading that was offset by solid consumer spending data. Markets opened sharply lower after government data showed the US economy shrank by an annual rate of 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, amplifying worries about a recession amid US President Donald Trump's fast-changing tariff policies. But equity markets moved gradually higher throughout the day, rising after mid-morning data showed personal spending in March actually topped earlier estimates. A late day surge lifted two of the three indices into positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 40,669.36, up 0.4 per cent and more than 920 points above its session lows. The broad-based S&P 500 advanced 0.2 per cent to 5,569.06, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.1 per cent to 17,446.34. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Consumers 'despite what they are saying they still seem to be spending', said Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital, alluding to survey data showing weak consumer sentiment. Part of the contraction in GDP was due to a surge in imports from businesses seeking to get ahead of Trump's myriad tariffs. Besides the GDP data, payroll firm ADP reported that private sector employment grew by 62,000 in April, a sharp slowdown from a revised 147,000 in March. Ablin said on Friday's jobs data for April will be 'one of the most important jobs reports we have seen for a while' in light of uncertainty about the economy. Among companies reporting results, Starbucks shares fell 5.7 per cent after the coffee giant reported a 50 per cent fall in profits to US$384.2 million. But travel tech company Booking Holdings rose 3.9 per cent as it reported higher quarterly revenues even as it pointed to 'uncertainty around the near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic environment'. AFP
Straits Times
30-04-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
US stocks end mostly up, rebounding from bad GDP report
A trader working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, in New York City, on April 30. PHOTO: REUTERS US stocks end mostly up, rebounding from bad GDP report NEW YORK - Wall Street stocks finished mostly higher April 30 after digesting a poor US GDP reading that was offset by solid consumer spending data. Markets opened sharply lower after government data showed the US economy shrank by an annual rate of 0.3 per cent in the first quarter, amplifying worries about a recession amid President Donald Trump's fast-changing tariff policies. But equity markets moved gradually higher throughout the day, rising after mid-morning data showed personal spending in March actually topped earlier estimates. A late day surge lifted two of the three indices into positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 40,669.36, up 0.4 per cent and more than 920 points above its session lows. The broad-based S&P 500 advanced 0.2 per cent to 5,569.06, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.1 per cent to 17,446.34. Consumers 'despite what they're saying they still seem to be spending,' said Mr Jack Ablin, of Cresset Capital, alluding to survey data showing weak consumer sentiment. Part of the contraction in GDP was due to a surge in imports from businesses seeking to get ahead of Mr Trump's myriad tariffs. Besides the GDP data, payroll firm ADP reported that private sector employment grew by 62,000 in April, a sharp slowdown from a revised 147,000 in March. Mr Ablin said May 2 jobs data for April will be 'one of the most important jobs reports we've seen for a while' in light of uncertainty about the economy. Among companies reporting results, Starbucks shares fell 5.7 per cent after the coffee giant reported a 50 per cent fall in profits to US$384.2 million (S$502 million). But travel tech company Booking Holdings rose 3.9 per cent as it reported higher quarterly revenues even as it pointed to 'uncertainty around the near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.' AFP Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
RTHK
30-04-2025
- Business
- RTHK
US stocks end mostly up, rebounding from bad GDP data
US stocks end mostly up, rebounding from bad GDP data Shares on Wall Street finished Wednesday mostly higher, despite poor US GDP data. Photo: AFP Wall Street stocks finished mostly higher on Wednesday after digesting a poor US GDP reading that was offset by solid consumer spending data. Markets opened sharply lower after government data showed the US economy shrank by an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter, amplifying worries about a recession amid US President Donald Trump's fast-changing tariff policies. But equity markets moved gradually higher throughout the day, rising after mid-morning data showed personal spending in March actually topped earlier estimates. A late-day surge lifted two of the three indices into positive territory. The Dow Jones finished at 40,669, up 0.4 percent and more than 920 points above its session lows. The S&P 500 advanced 0.2 percent to 5,569, while the Nasdaq declined 0.1 percent to 17,446. Consumers "despite what they're saying they still seem to be spending," said Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital, alluding to survey data showing weak consumer sentiment. Part of the contraction in GDP was due to a surge in imports from businesses seeking to get ahead of Trump's myriad tariffs. Besides the GDP data, payroll firm ADP reported that private sector employment grew by 62,000 in April, a sharp slowdown from a revised 147,000 in March. Ablin said Friday's jobs data for April will be "one of the most important jobs reports we've seen for a while" in light of uncertainty about the economy. Among companies reporting results, Starbucks shares fell 5.7 percent after the coffee giant reported a 50-percent fall in profits to US$384.2 million. But travel tech company Booking Holdings rose 3.9 percent as it reported higher quarterly revenues even as it pointed to "uncertainty around the near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic environment." (AFP)
