Latest news with #JackTame
1News
18-05-2025
- Business
- 1News
Global shockwaves put Nicola Willis' Budget 2025 in a vice
Instability around the world is making decision-making even harder for our politicians, University of Waikato researchers say. This year's budget will be one of the tightest in a decade, with the New Zealand government halving its operating allowance – the new money it has available to spend – from NZ$2.4 billion to $1.3 billion. The cut reflects weaker than expected growth owing to global economic turmoil. It also highlights just how difficult it is to predict what is going to happen when it comes to the economy. Economies are dynamic systems where relationships between variables shift. Even the current state of the economy is uncertain due to data revisions and lags in reporting. Despite this uncertainty, governments have to assume paths for revenue and expenditure to make meaningful plans. Full coverage of the Budget on and on TVNZ1's Q+A Special from 2pm on Thursday. Based on the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023), the National Party announced plans to achieve an operating surplus in the year ending June 2027 during the 2023 election campaign. As forecasts changed, so did those plans. By the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU 2024), released in December 2024, the goal of an operating surplus had been pushed back to 2029. Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced within a country during a specific period. It is a key determinant of tax revenue. Real GDP measures the volume of output of the New Zealand economy. Ultimately, the 2027 nominal GDP forecast at the half-year update was weaker than expected. This weakness was driven by lower than expected output, not by changes in prices. The 2027 forecast tax revenue fell even more sharply than the nominal GDP forecast. This was in part due to the government's personal income tax cuts which have been costed at $3.7 billion a year. We're likely to see further downward revisions in economic growth. The Treasury has already lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, in part due to the expected impact of global tariffs. While the direct effects of the tariffs on New Zealand may be limited, the indirect effects – particularly through increased global economic uncertainty – are likely to be substantial. Swarbrick pressed on Greens' alternative budget by Jack Tame - watch on TVNZ+ Research has shown that United States-based uncertainty spills over into the New Zealand economy by making firms more pessimistic about the future. This pessimism leads to firms delaying investment, ultimately reducing potential output in the future. Potential output is important as it represents the economy's capacity to grow without generating inflation. Potential GDP is affected by productivity, which has also been weaker than expected and one of the reasons Treasury lowered its forecasts after the pre-election fiscal update. New Zealand is running a structural budget deficit. That means the government is spending more than it earns, even accounting for the fact that governments automatically spend more and tax less in economic downturns. These deficits add to government debt, which can limit future spending and taxation choices. High debt can also hamper the government's ability to assist in counteracting the next downturn if the Reserve Bank's official cash rate is already near zero. It can also limit the ability of the government to respond to external shocks such as disasters or extreme weather events. These concerns are possibly behind the government's goal of returning to surplus by 2029. But there are counter-arguments. With pressing needs in many areas, some argue the government should be spending more now to boost productivity and growth. These contrasting views reflect a legitimate debate about values and priorities. Still, one point is clear: weaker than expected economic growth since the pre-election update has made the trade-offs between present and future fiscal choices more acute. The takeaway is that economic growth is essential for expanding the resources available to both households and governments. This is so they can spend money on things they deem important both now and in the future. A growing economy is not just about producing more for prestige – it's about creating the economic and fiscal resources to improve lives both now and in the future. University of Waikato authors: Michael Ryan, Lecturer in Economics, and Michael P. Cameron, Professor of Economics. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence.
Kiwiblog
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Kiwiblog
Three Key Articles to Consider re Education in NZ
There would have been four articles but the use of taxpayer's money to pay for teacher registration has already been posted. An interesting article re moving away from State Schools altogether.I believe that there are a number of reasons why the Australian system now appears to be moving well ahead of NZ. You can stipulate the others but the fact that nearly 36% of students are in private schools in Australia and less than 4% in New Zealand. This article – raises many interesting points – e.g. 'Thus, 'modern education' has abandoned the school functions of formal instruction in favor of molding the total personality both to enforce equality of learning at the level of the least educable, and to usurp the general educational role of home and other influences as much as possible.' 2. In a small nation like NZ we are far more prone to pendulum swings in 'best practice'. In our current situation I believe that it will be shown up in the directives that every school must deliver 'structured literacy' to every child. As I have pointed out to some proponents – just my three children alone would have been lost to the system as they were proficient readers of chapter books at 5yo and had heard books such as The Lord of the Rings read to them from 3yo. Someone asking them to say: rat, cat, fat, twat … would have seen them disappearing into the distance. Plus – the very best programme can only have, at best, marginal gains – if the children that need learning the most are not regularly at school. The government needs to point the hose at the heart of the fire. This article raises good points: e.g. 'If schools want across-the-board gains in reading achievement, using one reading curriculum to teach every child isn't the best way. Teachers need the flexibility and autonomy to use various, developmentally appropriate literacy strategies as needed.' 3. I was a huge advocate in the last National government for the potential and effect of Charter I have stated – currently – Ass Minister Seymour has over-promised, underdelivered and attempted to defend the indefensible re Charter Schools. He has accused me of sour grapes. That is simply impossible given that I have offered to create schools that cost me a lot more than I can otherwise do. Same for a range of other applicants. Here his Seymour interviewed by Jack Tame on this: My follow up to Jack Tame has been: Well done on your interview with David Seymour re Charter Schools. David thinks a few of us are picking on him. We are not. I am a huge supporter of the potential of the policy. What we are asking is: Why – according to his own statements – is the reality so different from what he promised? Many applicants were bemused by the first round process. David kept telling media (including yourself) that there was enough funding for 15 schools to be established at the beginning of 2025. Many good people and significant organisations (plus people with suitable properties – worth millions – holding off leasing them) took David and the CSA at their word. The applicants were equally bemused when the first 6 tiny schools (and by definition most of them will stay tiny) were announced. Followed by Tipene in December. It took an OIA to explain what was really going on. Seymour only has $10m to allocate until June 30 2025 for establishing and running the schools (and $2.5million was used for CSA salaries) – so only small schools could be approved. We have an OIA in to discover when Seymour knew about that funding level – because it is not in keeping with many of his 2024 statements. Around that there was much secrecy, applicant blaming and incredibly poor and time delayed processes. In the interview Seymour stated that they were further ahead than last time. Not true by two measures:– 2014 saw 5 start and 2015 saw 4 more start. – There were more students. For example – South Auckland Middle School started with 120, quickly went to 180 – and had 100+ on a waiting list. That could actually be regarded as good demand. Middle School West Auckland (started 2015) also got to near 200 quickly. Vanguard was over 100 and Raewyn Tipene's two schools in Whangarei were also well populated. NB: the schools had an average of 85% Maori and Pasifika. We also know now that the fund through to the end of 2026 is only $123million but, bizarrely, $30million of that is allocated to the CSA, Authorisation Board and ERO. The salaries for advertised roles have been stunning – an assessment of the schools role was advertised for $263k for what I would generously estimate to be a month's work. A few things with the State School conversion situation: 1. It is State, State Integrated and Designated Character Schools that can convert. Some considering it might be former Charter Schools but most of those did the numbers and it did not work. 2. What research was done to support the notion that 35 would want to convert anyway? 3. The CSA, Seymour and AB give different answers when asked if the 15/35 ratio is fixed. 4. I think that your question about Seymour and his lack of appeal to Maori is accurate. For David to say that Maori people put off by him are politicising it and are 'maybe not the right people' is poor. He is also barely shifting the dial on our attendance crises – and is probably the wrong person in both roles. A possible theory on why none of the CS this time around in any way challenge the established network is that Seymour did not want to rile the unions (who have been very quiet) in an attempt to try and minimise the opposition to State school conversions. For David to say that there is a 'whole lot of children benefiting' was laughable. 215 out of 850,999 is … umm … a tiny amount. Tipene should always have been approved as an Integrated School – either by Labour or by the new government. The CS approval for them was cost-saving as there is little/no property funding and no boarding funding the CS model. They have 45 students. The cost of boarding there is $20,000pa – although the Tipene Board is assisting with some of that – which is an expensive option for families. In summary. We have a genuine education crises in NZ but we are tinkering like only National/ACT can do. Alwyn Poole [email protected]
1News
27-04-2025
- Politics
- 1News
Malcolm Turnbull: Trump 'enormous disruption', AUKUS 'absolute shocker'
In an interview on Q+A with Jack Tame, former Australian Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull said both New Zealand and Australia needed to do more to ensure their defence capabilities are 'sovereign', and not controlled by another country. 'For countries like Australia and New Zealand, we are confronted with a United States with whom we shared the same values for 80 years now no longer sharing those values,' said Turnbull. He said Trump instead believes in the ethos of 'might is right', and that should be very concerning for smaller countries that rely on the rules-based international order. Turnbull cited the bullying of NATO members Canada and Denmark in an attempt to annex Canada as the 51st state, and Greenland as American territory, as examples of how the United States has dramatically changed. 'We have to be clear-eyed about this – this is not the United States we grew up with. Trump's values are more closely aligned with Vladimir Putin than they are with any of his predecessors – Democrat or Republican.' 'This is a time of enormous disruption, and I think the challenge for Australia and New Zealand – we have to look to a world where there is no longer American leadership.' Turnbull argued the AUKUS deal, in which Australia is scheduled to receive nuclear-powered submarines, puts Australia in a dangerous position and potentially without any submarines at all. He added Australia's submarine deal as part of Pillar 1, however, is a "massive mistake" and an "absolute shocker". Turnbull explained that Australia's existing fleet is coming to the end of its life, and under the terms of the AUKUS agreement, the Virginia-class submarines can only be given to Australia if the USA has sufficient reserves, which is very unlikely to be the case in the coming decades. That contrasted with a deal to build submarines Turnbull's government negotiated with France, which was torn up by Scott Morrison's government in order to sign up to AUKUS. Speaking just before ANZAC Day, Turnbull said there is 'strength in numbers,' and New Zealand and Australia's militaries should work together 'seamlessly'. 'I think the real issue is that Australia has to do more to make its defence capability sovereign – that is to say independent of any other country, and focus on our ability defend our own country, and in your case your country.' He said both countries would need to do so 'in circumstances where we can't necessarily rely on the United States.' In terms of the technology sharing agreement AUKUS Pillar Two - which New Zealand might sign up but has not yet been invited to consider – Turnbull said very little progress had been made so far. However, he said in principle a technology sharing agreement could have value for New Zealand, depending on the direction any future progress takes. Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of NZ on Air
