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The Guardian
20-07-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Minority government the new normal in Tasmania as voters turn away from major parties
Tasmania has just had its second state election in 16 months, the shortest gap between state polls in Australia since Queensland in 1957. For some voters it was their fifth trip to the ballot box in less than two years. The state's Labor opposition bore a heavy burden of explaining why voters were going through this just months after rewarding federal Labor with two extra seats in Tasmania. In terms of its own vote share, state Labor clearly failed on Saturday. It had just 26% of the vote with almost 75% of the ballots counted. The election was called after Labor moved a no-confidence motion in Jeremy Rockliff's Liberal minority government – citing issues with budget management, proposed asset sales and major projects delivery. Yet on the campaign trail, Labor's budget repair proposals were modest and undermined by their support for spending on the much-disliked Macquarie Point stadium project. Labor's anti-asset-sales position was also undercut by their intent to offload the state's share in the proposed Marinus Link Bass Strait connector. Meanwhile, the Liberals switched from would-be privatisers to promising a government-owned insurance company, a concept blasted by experts and insurers but which tapped into small business concerns and distracted the news cycle for days. The overall state vote share result is a swing of about 3% from Labor to the Liberals who recorded 40% of the vote. A record field of 44 independents gained, too, in the absence of the Jacqui Lambie Network. The four most prominent independents (incumbents Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland and David O'Byrne, and anti-salmon-farming campaigner Peter George) polled strongly but almost all of the others flopped. Another failure was the latest reappearance of the Tasmanian Nationals. Their endorsement of candidates who sent two Liberal governments to elections and generally ramshackle campaign should raise questions for the party at the federal level. The Nationals were outpolled by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, whose campaign was barely visible, but are in serious contention for one seat and in a multi-way battle for another. Tasmania uses the Hare-Clark proportional representation system where candidates compete against others from their own party as well as other parties – with each of the state's five federal electorates electing seven state members in the 35-seat House of Assembly. The system makes majority government difficult, but voters have frequently routed around that by supporting whichever major party looks most likely to win. Usually, minority governments are followed by majorities of the other side, but polling this time never showed either major party close. With declining major party vote shares, non-majority parliaments look like the new normal in this system. Sign up to Morning Mail Our Australian morning briefing breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Rockliff's government has gained a seat in Braddon, the north-west and western electorate that at the federal election fell to Labor with a massive swing. It appears to have lost one narrowly in Franklin where George has taken a seat, and is still fighting for possible gains from its starting 14 seats in Bass and Lyons. Dean Winter's opposition seems to have held its 10 seats and is in the mix for a possible gain in Bass through quirks of the Hare-Clark system. Overall, Tasmania is pretty back much where it was. Labor could potentially govern, if willing to do so with support from the Greens and left-wing independents. Such an alliance could have 18 or 19 seats. But Labor could have tried this approach after the 2024 election, or after the no-confidence motion in June, and made no visible attempt to do so. If Labor were to form government after losing votes in an election they are blamed for, and performed badly in, it would look less legitimate than had it done so immediately after last year's election. Rockliff, the premier, has stated his intention to ask the governor to renew his commission. By precedent, he must be granted this, whether or not he can prove he has 18 promised votes on confidence and supply. Of course, it is better to have the appearance of stability, but if he cannot arrange enough support, he can at least go back to the parliament and defy it to vote him out. Then, another no-confidence motion would be needed to install Winter as premier. Labor would come to office with a shallow pool of MPs to draw on, a debt crisis requiring hard decisions that they did not campaign on, and a crossbench hungry to deliver for supporters on issues like native forest logging, salmon farms and the stadium. It's a sticky situation.
The Guardian
13-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
In Tasmania, neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government
Tasmania is off to its fourth election in seven years. For the second time in less than two years the Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff, has called an early poll after his breakdown in relations with the independents who supported his minority government. In early 2024 he called for an election a year before it was due after two ex-Liberal party independents, John Tucker and Lara Alexander, refused his draconian terms of not voting on Labor or Green bills, motions or amendments without discussing them with the government. The premier saw parliament as unworkable if they challenged government policy. But they would not agree to be silenced, for example, about the lack of transparency surrounding the AFL stadium proposed for Hobart's waterfront. The 2024 election did not return the Liberals to majority government. It delivered them 14 seats in an expanded parliament of 35 members of the House of Assembly. Labor won 10 seats, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and three independents were elected. The Liberals claimed victory. Labor refused suggestions that it could form a minority or coalition government with the Greens, and potentially with independents. On election night the party's then leader, Rebecca White, seemed interested but that faded in the light of day. Labor had governed in majority from 1998 until 2010, when it formed a quasi-coalition with the Greens, who sat within cabinet as ministers but with the ability to oppose government policy and legislation. This arrangement provided stable government for four years, with the Greens ministers Nick McKim and Cassie O'Connor well regarded as hard-working and effective. But Labor still blamed the Greens for its 2014 loss of government after 16 long years in power. The Liberals have governed since 2014, in majority until 2018. Their majority was regained in 2021 but subsequently lost. Their vote has gradually eroded to its low point today. Labor's vote has been stuck in the doldrums post-2014, with White taking the party to three consecutive election losses and blaming the Greens for destroying the party – rather than Labor's failure to differentiate itself from the Liberals. Polling in Tasmania mirrors this year's federal election result. The Liberal and Labor votes are hovering around 30%, eclipsed by the combined Greens, Lambie Network and independents at about 40%. If accurate this will surely deliver another minority government. But those results still might deliver more seats to the Liberals than Labor, despite parliament's no-confidence motion in Rockliff, his refusal to step down, and the fact that his government has become embattled, tired and ineffective. Labor's leader, Dean Winter, brought the no-confidence motion, setting in train the events that have led to the early election. This will win his party no fans. Labor has also backed the Liberals on the stadium proposal, now opposed by 59% of Tasmanians. The Greens stepped up and offered to work with Labor so an election could be avoided. But Winter travelled to Government House to assure the governor, Barbara Baker, that he and his party would not countenance working with the Greens. He will be hoping that Tasmanian voters cannot discern between state and federal politics, that they equate Tasmanian Labor with all its woes with the Albanese government, and that the 9% swing to Labor at the federal election is replicated. A millstone for the major parties is Tasmania's debt crisis, with net debt forecast to reach $10.9bn by 2029. Neither party has offered credible remedies and both will surely be constrained for once from electoral pork-barrelling. So the crossbench is likely to expand at the 2025 poll and, with it, the available talent for supporting minority government and playing a role in a quasi-coalition government. Indeed the Greens and the crossbench have the numbers to form their own minority government. But neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government. Neither party seems to have learned from previous experiences of it. And neither has grasped that a Labor-Greens quasi-coalition offers a solid and workable arrangement. In Tasmania, the major parties simply have to come to terms with the fact that the days of majority government are done and will be until they significantly rebuild faith with the electorate. Until then, they need to deal cooperatively with the Greens and the crossbench. Kate Crowley, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Tasmania, is an expert on minority government and the editor of Minority Government: The Liberal-Green Experience in Tasmania
The Guardian
04-06-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Labor's no-confidence motion to oust Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff set to succeed
A no-confidence motion in the Tasmanian premier appears likely to succeed on Wednesday. Jeremy Rockliff has been under increasing pressure over his handling of the state's budget, Bass Strait ferry delays, a plan to sell assets and a new stadium. The Labor opposition on Wednesday moved a no-confidence motion in the Liberal premier, after a day earlier threatening to if it could find the numbers. The motion will be debated on Wednesday. The independents Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston and Jacqui Lambie Network MP Andrew Jenner have indicated they will support the motion. The Greens, who have five MPs, voiced their support for the no-confidence motion on Wednesday morning, meaning it has the numbers to pass. 'The deals the premier struck for minority government after the last election have collapsed,' the Labor leader, Dean Winter, told parliament. 'Three independent members of the crossbench have lost confidence in the premier. '(This is) due to his financial mismanagement, his appalling handling of the Spirit of Tasmania project, and his plan to privatise Tasmania's most precious assets.' If a no-confidence motion against Rockliff is successful, convention dictates he resign. In a social media post, Rockliff said a successful no-confidence motion would force Tasmania back to the polls. 'An election just over 12 months since the last one,' he said. 'That's the last thing Tasmania needs. That's the last thing Tasmanians want.' The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, are governing in minority with just 14 of 35 seats in the lower house. Last week's 2025-26 budget predicted debt would more than double to $10.8bn in four years' time, with deficits each year. The Greens leader, Rosalie Woodruff, said the premier had brought the no-confidence motion on himself. 'Poll after poll have made it abundantly clear that Tasmanians do not, will not, support a new stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart,' she said. The stadium, which is supported by Labor, is a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028.
ABC News
02-06-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Jacqui Lambie surprised by Labor's campaign turnaround, as final Senate term ambitions revealed
Jacqui Lambie is settling in for a final six years, having successfully seen off a challenge for her federal Senate seat. Senator Lambie faced a nervous three-week wait for the distribution of preferences after the federal election on May 3. "I was more worried about Labor because the numbers, I'm thinking, 'Oh my goodness, they might win that third seat back,'" she told ABC Radio Hobart Mornings. Senator Lambie was eventually elected fifth, after a four-way contest for the final two seats between herself, re-elected Liberal senator Richard Colbeck, Labor, and One Nation's Lee Hanson, daughter of party founder Pauline Hanson. Senator Lambie said her campaign was hampered by a shortage of resources, lamenting a lack of money and volunteers. The Jacqui Lambie Network's 7.92 per cent vote share was down from the party's 2019 result of 8.92 per cent. It was also lower than in the 2022 election, when lead candidate Tammy Tyrell was elected. Senator Lambie put that down to Labor's campaign. "I don't think anything I could have done more or less of would have made any difference for me," she said. "I could see Labor coming home really strong, especially in that last two to two and a half weeks. In recent years, Senator Lambie has weighed in on some divisive Tasmanian issues, voicing strong views in her distinctive colourful way. At a 2023 rally opposing plans for a stadium on Hobart's waterfront, she told Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff to "stick it up your bum". She's also become a vocal opponent of salmon farming in Tasmanian waters. Senator Lambie denied these views have taken a toll on her popularity. She pointed to a majority of Tasmanians "against that stadium with the roof". Senator Lambie also defended her decision to run Jacqui Lambie Network candidates in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, saying it wasn't a distraction. Her candidates included former senator Rex Patrick, who joined the JLN as part of his attempt to win back the seat he lost in 2022. "They had to raise their own money … that did not come from me, they had to stand on their own two feet." The Jacqui Lambie Network won three seats at last year's Tasmanian state election, however the party imploded within months, with only one MP remaining. Senator Lambie, a former member of the Australian Army, said she was certain this would be her final Senate term. "We've just had a bit of a change to the doctor with my back and yeah, I am struggling a little bit physically from my time in service and under DVA (Department of Veterans Affairs). "I think it'll be 16 years [I've] done up by then. In her final term, Senator Lambie flagged pushing for Tasmanian issues, including the proposed Macquarie Point stadium and Tasmania's mounting debt, to feature on the national stage. "You can only print so much money, that really bothers me, especially for our children and our grandchildren," she said. She also said royalties earned from Western Australia's mining sector should be shared more evenly around the nation.
Sky News AU
02-06-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Pete Hegseth calls on Australia to lift defence spending amid ‘personnel crisis'
Jacqui Lambie Network Senator Jacqui Lambie reacts to US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth calling on Australia to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP. Defence Minister Richard Marles met with US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last week to discuss the key priorities of the US-Australia alliance in the face of a potential Chinese offensive in Taiwan within the next two years. 'We have a personnel crisis in our military, and something needs to be done,' Ms Lambie said. 'That is the biggest problem you have with our national security right now, people don't want to join defence, and people do not want to stay in.'
