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New York Times
2 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at quarterback
As per tradition, our first fantasy football roundtable of the summer will spotlight the QB position. For this exercise, we have enlisted a standout crew of contributors to The Athletic fantasy football, including Jake Ciely, Michael Salfino, Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don. Which elite-level quarterbacks are you willing to pay up for? Who are the non-elites at those positions who have you most intrigued? Who is the biggest QB X-factor? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our running back, wide receiver and tight end roundtables! Note: All ADPs mentioned below are from Fantasy Pros. Photo by Elsa / Getty Images Ciely: Jalen Hurts, far and away. Joe Burrow is in a tier of his own for me, below the other four in Tier 1. So, if the ADP comes at a discount because of whatever worry people have over Hurts' rushing value, I'll buy all day. Do you know the last time Hurts hasn't rushed for 10+ touchdowns or averaged 20+ FPPG? Oh, just his rookie season, before he was the starter. All four years since then … check and check. Salfino: The only plausible pick here is Burrow, going to the Ja'Marr Chase manager for the stack. Maybe add Tee Higgins, too, with the first three picks. That'd be scary to face. All the other early-round QBs are less stackable and are just bad choices in 1-QB leagues. What problem are you solving? If you're Flex 9 (two WRs and a flex, three WRs max), you are behind the eight ball at RB and must leave the draft with a top RB room. If you are Flex 10 (three WRs and a flex, four-plus WRs), you are a top receiver short. For what? QBs have basically even touches, and thus their scoring is within a narrow range, and a QB emerges from the late rounds/waivers to be a top scorer every year. Lean into this! Advertisement Behrens: With all due respect to Jayden Daniels, Burrow and Hurts, I've got Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in a tier of their own at QB. Those two have combined to deliver several all-time scoring seasons at the position. Jackson's two best years have been historic outliers. I'll happily take him at the top of the third round. Del Don: Hurts. Regression is coming for the Eagles' passing attack after Philadelphia posted the second-lowest pass rate since 2011 last season. Plus, the tush-push is a TD cheat code. Funston: Daniels. His ability to keep his offense on the field — Commanders led NFL with 66 plays per game, and Daniels was second to Hurts among QBs with 55 rushing first downs — was remarkable and certainly maddening for opposing defenses. I reserve the right to change my mind if Washington doesn't solve for Terry McLaurin soon, but assuming Scary Terry is in the lineup come September, I absolutely think Daniels has No. 1 overall QB potential — he produced at that elite level over his final eight full games of his rookie campaign (including the postseason and excluding his half-game in Week 18). Photo by Justin Casterline / Getty Images Ciely: It's easily Justin Fields. The last time Fields played 15 games, he averaged 19.6 fantasy points and was the QB6 overall and in FPPG. That was also the only season Fields played more than 13 games. So, there is your risk. I'm not even bringing passing into the conversation because 1) in fantasy, you don't need to be a great passer to be a fantasy stud and 2) Fields is better than people give him credit for (as in, he's not terrible). If Fields throws for mid-2000 yards (no, not even 3000+ yards) with high-teen touchdowns (again, not even 20+), he'll be a Top 10 quarterback with his added rushing. However, he could also get hurt a few games in and be lost for the season. Advertisement Salfino: It's obviously Anthony Richardson. He could be out of the league, essentially, by Week 4, or the QB6 or so in fantasy for as many weeks as he can manage to stay healthy. However, he doesn't seem to have the body to absorb the punishment he'll take as a runner. Behrens: Well, the floor for Caleb Williams involves dozens of sacks, stalled drives, disgusting possessions and perhaps a potential benching to reset. But the ceiling in Ben Johnson's offense seems pretty fantastic — potentially the greatest passing season in Bears history (a shockingly low bar), along with rushing upside. I can imagine anything from QB28 to QB5. Del Don: Richardson still somehow had the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback during a nightmare season last year, and he's just three days older than Cam Ward. Richardson still possesses legit fantasy-QB upside, but his scary floor is being benched for Daniel Jones. Funston: Fields. Jake has already laid out the case for Fields' floor/ceiling volatility range, but it's worth also mentioning that if the Jets feel like they have an otherwise competitive team, and Fields is holding them back from the wins column, Tyrod Taylor is a very experienced backup who notably has produced a better winning percentage in his starts than his team's winning percentage in games he didn't start in every season he's made starts in his career. Photo by Mike Carlson / Getty Images Ciely: Outside of Fields? It's Williams and (deep breath) Richardson. With Williams, it's simply a matter of chasing upside. I never aim to draft QB10 or 12. I want someone with a Top 5 ceiling, even if they bust. Unless you're in SuperFlex, I'm going Ricky Bobby — 'First or last.' I'll draft a top-tier QB or wait until the end game and double-dip with a Williams, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, even Richardson, who, if healthy, is Fields 2.0 (actually with even more passing concerns but great rushing upside). Advertisement Salfino: Trevor Lawrence. He has elite weapons and a top QB coach. Why is Williams ranked ahead of him? Everything you can convince yourself about Williams, you can say about Lawrence, and Lawrence has already had a year as the QB7 in fantasy. Williams doesn't want to run. Look for Lawrence in Liam Coen's system to have more rushing yards than Baker Mayfield did for Coen last year (378 with three rushing scores). Behrens: No one wants to hear it, but Lawrence has sneaky appeal. Everyone seems bullish on Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange, yet nobody wants their quarterback. Lawrence has never had a receiving room as good as this year's version. He's also finished as high as QB7 in his career, so it's not as if he's never helped us. Del Don: J.J. McCarthy (+6) just edges out Fields (+5). McCarthy gets a Kevin O'Connell offense indoors with terrific weapons. Vikings quarterbacks have been fantasy's QB6 over the past three seasons, and McCarthy has more rushing upside than Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold. Funston: McCarthy. I already wrote about McCarthy's sleeper appeal, but in that write-up, I didn't mention that the draft community is buying Justin Jefferson as the WR2, Jordan Addison as WR37 (despite an impending three-game suspension) and T.J. Hockenson as TE6. Faith is shown in the Vikings' skill position players, though McCarthy (QB19) isn't seeing the same love. Kevin O'Connell turned a washed-out Sam Darnold into QB6 last year and made him rich. O'Connell's track record with QBs is exemplary. McCarthy is the best kind of fantasy 'backup' in 1-QB leagues, where you've waited until late to address your QB room. Photo by Justin Edmonds / Getty Images Ciely: Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa. Back to my Top 5/not wanting the QB12 argument, neither brings a Top 5 ceiling without major changes and high-HIGH-volume passing. The first two years of Herbert aren't needed and won't be how the Chargers' offense runs. Tagovailoa's peak is 17.8 FPPG, which doesn't even crack the Top 10 most years; Herbert hasn't cracked the Top 10 since his second season. Salfino: Of course, my rankings are in pencil at the moment, though my rationale in the profiles isn't. Adjusting for ADP, where smaller differences are way more meaningful near the top of the queue, I'll say Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 6, my QB12). He's the reverse Tom Brady, who was a fantasy non-factor despite being great the first six years of his career, then exploded into a fantasy force. Mahomes started that way, and now he is basically 2004 Brady. Meh. He has four 25+ point fantasy games the past two seasons combined. Brock Purdy has seven. Justin Herbert has four and goes roughly three rounds later in drafts. Advertisement Behrens: Someone is always willing to pay a Top 8 price for Bo Nix, but that's much too rich for me. He was often a rough watch last season, and not just in the early weeks. I simply don't think he did enough to separate himself in fantasy terms from the other rookie QBs last season, excluding Daniels. It won't surprise me in the least if Nix is outscored by Drake Maye in 2025. Del Don: Jared Goff is due for touchdown regression, and he'll find life harder without OC Ben Johnson and center Frank Ragnow, while playing many more games outdoors in 2025. Paying for quarterbacks who don't run at all is a risky bet, especially following an outlier season like Goff's. Funston: I doubt I will have any shares of C.J. Stroud. He, undoubtedly, throws a beautiful ball. But aesthetics aside, he'll likely be playing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines again, and his backfield support is on shaky ground, given Joe Mixon's foot injury. Stroud was one of the most pressured QBs last season, leading to the second-most sacks (52) and fourth-most interceptions (12), and his best weapon, Nico Collins, is such an obvious threat that I don't see how he doesn't see as much defensive attention as any WR in the league. Stroud's ceiling for 2025 reminds me of the movie 'Being John Malkovich' … Photo by Justin Casterline / Getty Images Ciely: Fields and Love (or Purdy) Salfino: Fields and Lawrence Behrens: Dak Prescott and Maye Del Don: Fields and Purdy Funston: Daniels and Love (Top photo of Joe Burrow: Bill Streicher / Imagn Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
New York Times
7 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Six strategies to find football breakouts every season, plus Jake Ciely's must-draft players
Winning a fantasy football league is about more than prize money. Prove to your friends, colleagues and neighbors that you're better than them at life. Inside: Fantasy strategies, players to target and a note from rankings guru Jake Ciely, who'll join us as part of our fantasy coverage each Tuesday. This article is from Scoop City, The Athletic's NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox. Flipping the calendar to August is polarizing. On one hand, summer is nearly over, and I'll miss the simple joys of sunshine, golf scores over 100 and barbecues. But it's peak fantasy draft season, so forget about any of that. With four weeks until the Eagles and Cowboys kick off actual football, it's time to schedule your draft, collect league fees and lock in. There are plenty of questions at the top of most drafts: But rather than guess those specific answers, I'm sharing six timeless principles that will help you find league-winning picks this season. And next season. The season after that, too. And the season after the season I just mentioned, and even the season after the season after the season after next season. Advertisement After all that winning, it'll be time to find a new league (and probably new friends). A close reading of beat reports in the summer of 2023 hinted at Puka Nacua's record-breaking potential. Receivers can shine in training camp, as their talent translates better than almost any other position to practices. (A receiver beating a DB looks about the same even without full contact, but a running back rumbling up the middle doesn't.) This year, preseason risers include Lions rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa, as well as discounted veteran WRs like the Bills' Joshua Palmer, Raiders' Jakobi Meyers or Steelers' rising Scotty Miller — plus higher-priced standouts like Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka, Colts TE Tyler Warren or Packers WR Matthew Golden, who might be Green Bay's No. 1. Your bench should be filled with those aforementioned receivers and 'handcuff' (or backup) running backs. Why? To win your league, you need to outscore at least nine other teams on a consistent basis. That's only possible with some luck, so swing for home-run picks by drafting cheap backups who could become every-down starters. Each of these RB options is behind a starter who has either injury or contract concerns, or whom the team invested little draft capital for. In order, I'm drafting: the Bills' Ray Davis, Cardinals' Trey Benson, Bengals' Tahj Brooks, Chiefs' Brashard Smith, Colts' D.J. Giddens, Texans' Woody Marks and Seahawks' Damien Martinez. Joe Burrow threw for 18 more touchdowns and nearly 1,400 more passing yards than Jayden Daniels last season, yet the explosive rookie finished just 17 points shy of Burrow's total — despite playing one fewer game. That's the power of rushing yards (Daniels had 891 to Burrow's 201) and touchdowns (six to two). Advertisement The higher-priced rushing threats this year are Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Daniels and Jalen Hurts. But if you scroll down while drafting — which you always should, when it comes to quarterback — you'll find my preferred targets, starting with Kyler Murray (currently being drafted around 11th among QBs). There are also Caleb Williams (QB13), Justin Fields (QB15), J.J. McCarthy (QB16) and Drake Maye (QB19). Even Anthony Richardson (QB26) is worth stashing at that price, especially amid the newly glowing beat reports. In 2023, then-rookie receivers Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed and (once again) Nacua were among the top scorers at their position over the season's final five weeks. Each started 2024 strong, much like Amon-Ra St. Brown did in 2022 after his impressive ending in 2021. This year, that suggests Brian Thomas (23.3 fantasy points per week in that same span last season), Malik Nabers (20.8), Jalen McMillan (19.5), Ladd McConkey (18.8) and even Marvin Mims Jr. (16.9) could elevate. If I shrink the sample size to last season's final three weeks, Ricky Pearsall (18.2) looks like a buy. By that, I mean take a preseason faller or boring veteran in a new situation. Remember when a rookie Ja'Marr Chase struggled with preseason drops? Or last year, when we thought we knew the ceiling for Terry McLaurin, Chuba Hubbard or Courtland Sutton? These types are usually found in the eighth to 12th rounds. In 2025, that includes Chris Olave, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Darnell Mooney — all of whom can't have much worse quarterback play or injury luck than in 2024. At running back, Travis Etienne Jr. and JK Dobbins feel like unexciting options for most people. So let them fall to you. While they tend to start slower than most — meaning you can trade for many around Week 2 — they are typically underrated in fantasy drafts, particularly because of their untapped upside. In 2024, seven rookies accounted for top-15 seasons at their respective positions, including Bowers, who finished as the TE1. In 2023, five rookies hit those marks, including Sam LaPorta, who also finished TE1. Advertisement This year's group could have multiple players with similar top-15 seasons. My guesses: RB Ashton Jeanty, RB Omarion Hampton, TE Tyler Warren, TE Colston Loveland and … WR Travis Hunter. Here's how The Athletic ranks this rookie class. Why listen to those? Last year, these principles led me to Bengals backup Chase Brown, typically the 35th running back taken. He finished RB10 and was one of the best values in football. I also recommended Nabers at his WR24 price (he finished WR6), Daniels at QB12 (he finished QB5) and Kittle at TE6 (he finished TE3). What about the misses? Plenty, but all were bad luck, so we can ignore them. For more, check out: Jake Ciely's rankings, breakouts for every position, and endless insights in The Athletic's full draft kit. Over to Jake now: The majority of my weekend was spent in New York City, where I hosted two fantasy drafts. With 24 of the industry's best drafting across multiple leagues, I learned plenty about where the market might move — or remain steady — on certain players: While I didn't draft this weekend, I recently shared the players you'll find on the majority of my rosters. That list includes: QB Dak Prescott: He has 30-plus touchdowns and at least 4,449 yards passing in each of his past three seasons of 16-plus games, and given his double-digit round cost, I'm taking the discount. RB Kenneth Walker: I was out on him until I talked to our Seahawks writer, Michael-Shawn Dugar, who told me to expect a bell-cow-like season. With that workload, Walker is pushing the RB1 tier. WR Roman Wilson: Mike Tomlin coached Wilson in Senior Bowl practices, where he tested the prospect against Quinyon Mitchell — you know, that really good corner for the Eagles — before drafting Wilson in the third round. Wilson lost his rookie season to injuries, but the No. 2 role is up for grabs in Pittsburgh. The full list has many more, some of whom Jacob mentioned above. Back to him. 🎙 Bo Nix on Year 2. The Broncos' 25-year-old sophomore joined the 'Scoop City' podcast to talk rookie nerves and his growth as a leader. As part of today's episode, Dianna and Chase shared the best five-minute interview of a quarterback you'll see. I don't say that lightly. ⭐ New-look Steelers. Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf and Jalen Ramsey are Pittsburgh's top performers so far, impressing teammates and reporters alike. They're chasing the Steelers' first playoff win since 2016. Advertisement 👀 If Terry McLaurin were traded, he might land with the Patriots, 49ers, Chargers, Steelers or Bills. The Athletic's beat reporters explained each of those offers, though none should tempt Washington. 2️⃣ Travis Hunter's position on the depth chart was a challenge for the Jaguars, who listed their star rookie as a starting receiver and backup corner. Yesterday's most-clicked: How Rodgers' connection with Mike Tomlin led him to the Steelers. 📫 Enjoyed this read? Sign up here to receive The Athletic's free NFL newsletter in your inbox. Also, check out our other newsletters.
New York Times
01-08-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy football 2025 strategy mock draft: From Hoard RB to Zero RB, and everything between
With mock drafts in abundance this time of year, we are once again adding a differentiating twist of strategy to ours. Six members of The Athletic's fantasy football staff — Mike Hume, Jess Bryant, Brandon Funston, Jake Ciely, Jay Felicio and Scott Engel — were tasked with drafting two teams each. One drafted 'of their own free will.' The other? Each was assigned a specific draft strategy to follow to the best of their ability. Advertisement To ensure an adequate number of quarterbacks and tight ends are drafted, each team was required to draft two quarterbacks for one of the teams and two tight ends for the other. Each mock drafter could decide which team they would apply each mandate to during the draft. Note: Of course, Ciely refused to follow the rules at the end as he couldn't possibly pick from the remaining TE 'trash' (his words), so he opted (through sheer force of will) to take a second QB for his open team instead of a second TE. Draft settings were as follows: Note: this draft was completed before some camp news was revealed that would have likely impacted where certain players were drafted, namely Joe Mixon (ankle) and Darnell Mooney (shoulder) For an Excel spreadsheet with the results, click here. Each participant was asked a series of questions post-draft: Felicio: Slightly embarrassed here, but I actually like the team I was forced into a strategy with. It makes sense because waiting on tight end and quarterback is how I draft most of my teams. But the way the board fell just fit Late QB/TE like a glove. The elite wide receivers. The depth at running back. And especially after the Isaiah Likely injury news, ending up with Mark Andrews after waiting on tight end is a-ok with me. Plus, Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence are two of my favorite quarterbacks for fantasy this season. I'm expecting big things for both. Ciely: Open. The balance (having to fill my starting lineup first) forced me to take a QB and TE earlier than I would have, given the value at RB and WR that was still on the board. Funston: Open. If I don't prefer my own free will over ADP consensus, I'm in trouble. My open squad especially looks better than my ADP team picks now that the troubling timeline for Joe Mixon's injury has been reported. And the ADP for Rashee Rice is too rich — he could conceivably be suspended for nearly half the season. Engel: I like the open one, as I was able to follow my own strategies and ranks, but going Zero RB for several rounds sure made for an interesting build and made me reconsider some depth targets. Bryant: I prefer my open draft. I like Justin Jefferson and DJ Moore as my top two receivers, with Jameson Williams, George Pickens and even Tre Harris having the potential for ceiling seasons. My top two RBs are solid, and if James Conner doesn't hold up, Trey Benson will be a steal. Otherwise, I still have three heavy workload starters ahead of him. I had to draft either two QBs or two TEs, and with Evan Engram comes the risk of injury, so I took Kyle Pitts behind him. Pitts is a perpetual letdown, but I'm chasing the ceiling. Baker Mayfield in the eighth round is about right where I wanted him to fall. Plus, my dog is named Baker (not after Mayfield), so it's an ode to him. No real complaints. Hume: Honestly, I kind of like them both? The RB hoarding strategy is pretty reflective of how I normally like to draft. I just feel like most data suggests that having two truly studly RBs provides a significant advantage (assuming health, of course), so I'm very pleased to land Bijan Robinson and pair him with another workhorse in Kyren Williams. Chuba Hubbard feels like a good value and will probably serve as my flex for most weeks unless one of the two Patriots' RBs on the roster proves to be a true alpha. Getting Tyreek Hill in Round 3 was a gift. There's still a chance he can provide elite points in that Miami offense, and if he does, the 'penalty' for drafting so many RBs is mitigated. I'm admittedly worried about TE, but the draft never fell in a way that I felt I would get good value from a TE. If this is the year for Dalton Kincaid, then this will be a very formidable team each week. Advertisement With the free form roster, I tried out another strategy I'm weighing for this season, which is HeroWR. The major caveat there is that I think there are only two WRs that I'd use for that scenario (Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson). Given I was able to snag Chase at 1.01, I decided to give it a shot and was able to create (in theory) pretty strong matchup advantages at WR, TE (Brock Bowers) and to a degree QB (Josh Allen, though I think the separation between the top 5 QBs in Jake's projections will be pretty small by season's end). Getting Aaron Jones and James Conner to slot in at RB is about as solid as I could have hoped for after paying a premium at QB and TE, but I'm very interested to see how this crew performs this year. And taking Mason Taylor last gives me a high upside flier that turns into a great trade chip if that lotto ticket hits. Felicio: Not to toot my own horn, but I love the roster construction of my Late QB/TE team. If I were not considering my team, I'd have to go with the balanced team. The roster construction is similar, but Jake grabbed a quarterback a tad earlier. Ciely: If I had to pick, I'd slightly lean Late QB/TE over Balance. It's not too different from my Open approach, though I'd prefer to have flexibility to draft a QB or TE earlier if the value warranted. Funston: I actually like the way the Hero RB team turned out — getting Saquon off the top, then four rock-solid receivers and a top-2 tight end before landing two more RBs that I thought were good values that late (Brian Robinson and Jaylen Warren). Engel: Probably the balanced approach of Jake's team. This roster could be good at winning a regular 12-team league, but in a high-stakes format, I would opt for more upside plays. Bryant: It may be in poor taste to choose HeroRB, as I drafted the team, but the approach worked well and chips fell right. Given Saquon Barkley stays healthy following his massive 2024 workload, I have two solid RBs, a great receiving room, Trey McBride at tight end and ceiling potential in Bo Nix at QB, with Jared Goff's solid floor and weekly ceiling potential as a safer option. I also like Jaylen Warren and Keon Coleman at the price. I think Dylan Sampson has some potential with the news of Quinshon Judkins' battery and domestic violence charges, and if not, I head to waivers. Waiting until the seventh round to draft my second RB worked well and allowed me to grab a Tier 1 TE and several good receivers. That said, I would like to have Rounds 10-12 back and take a second QB (stipulated in our draft rules) with the last pick, given some solid backups were available later, which would've allowed me better skill-position players. But all in all, I like how the team turned out, and I think the strategy is solid for certain formats. Advertisement Hume: I'm biased, but I like the mighty RB Hoard. I'm slightly worried that QB could go south with Dak Prescott and an unproven J.J. McCarthy, but I love the RB/WR corps there. I think Jake's Balance model is also really strong if Justin Fields pans out with the Jets. I just don't have any faith in the Jets' ability to enhance any player's value. Felicio: It's a close race between the ADP and Zero RB teams, but I have to go with Funston's ADP team. If Mixon misses significant time, there's a realistic possibility that the team has no starting running backs. (Reminder: Mixon's injury news came after the draft). Cam Skattebo can absolutely overtake Tyrone Tracy in the Giants' backfield, and the same goes for Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris. That's not even considering the Fourth of July eye injury Harris is dealing with. Ciely: Tough call between Hoard RB and Zero RB. Hoard RB might have no WR production, thereby offsetting any strength from the RBs. The same goes for Zero RB, as while yes, the WRs are enviable, the collection of RBs might not produce two fantasy starters. Heck, it might not even provide one. Funston: I actually hated the ADP team I had to draft. Being beholden to consensus with every pick is just a tough way to go. There's nuance to every draft that you need to be able to react to, and adhering strictly to ADP doesn't allow for that. Engel: The best available player (ADP) team. I disagree with some of the available selections, and it reflects how ADP is just a loose guide. Bryant: In this draft, I'd have to say Zero RB. While I love the receivers, QB Joe Burrow and TE George Kittle, the RBs on this team are competing for starting roles or backups. Even if these RBs earn starting roles, they will likely be in timeshares. There aren't two dependable RBs to slot into the RB1 and RB2 positions. I don't think the points can be made up at the other positions, especially when considering the composition of the other teams in the league. Hume: Hero RB will be a popular strategy this season, given the drop-off between the top-tier RBs and those below, but I just can't get aligned with it. I don't think there's anything bad about the roster Jess pieced together; I just don't think there is enough top-tier value at WR (outside of Chase and Jefferson) to warrant not trying to stack two of the top 8-10 RBs in the early rounds. Felicio: The running backs in the middle rounds are gross. There are tons of middle-round receiver values to be had. And as much as I love elite quarterbacks, late-round quarterback is still a completely viable strategy. Ciely: Not a lesson learned, but more of a lesson I try to convey to others yearly. Please don't go in with a preset strategy or plan and ignore the need to change plans or adapt to the draft. Yes, multiple strategies can work and provide super strong rosters, but if you ignore the value falling to you (or evaporating quickly), your team can easily fulfill your plan while also turning into one of the weakest constructions. Advertisement Funston: Apologies for the boring answer, but not really any grand lessons learned. I'm not a strategy drafter; I just take the best available player while being mindful of positional value pockets. Engel: Doubling down on the Zero RB approach reminded me that I cannot wait too long for ideal starters. I want to get one in the first two rounds and the second no later than the fifth. But every draft will be different. Bryant: I liked the Late QB/TE strategy, which is commonly used (even unknowingly by its users), and I had fun with Hero RB (which works when the chips fall right). Open drafts with experienced players lead to the best rosters because each strategy can be considered and adapted depending on draft position and players on the board. Good players often draft the next best available player on the board who fits the team's needs and has separation from others left at the position. But, for newer players, some of these strategies can be used as guidelines. I don't like strategies that deprioritize WRs to a great extent (Hoard RB); they are essential in PPR and half-PPR leagues. On the other hand, Zero RB may also not be viable this year. But there are several paths to a well-built fantasy roster. Hume: I don't see much differentiation between the Rounds 2-5 WRs, so I will be pretty inclined to lock down RB early and capitalize on one of the top 4 TEs and top 5 QBs if I can. (Photo of Ja'Marr Chase: Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
New York Times
05-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Aaron Rodgers is a Pittsburgh Steeler and the fantasy football world yawns
What seemed inevitable for much of the NFL offseason became a reality Thursday afternoon with the report of Aaron Rodgers signing a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The move had been rumored since roughly the dawn of time, or so it felt. Thus, the impact on fantasy football rankings falls somewhere between minimal and non-existent. Advertisement Specifically, Rodgers bounds up Jake Ciely's pre-season rankings by one spot, moving from QB30 to QB29 and hurdling Russell Wilson in the process. The reason for that adjustment? It wasn't any change in Ciely's outlook for the Steelers offense, but rather that the risk of Wilson losing the Giants' starting job at some point is now greater than that of Rodgers not signing this offseason. With the latter doubt removed, the runway is now clear for fantasy managers in single QB leagues to continue ignoring Wilson's and Rodgers' fantasy relevance for the remainder of this offseason. Removing the chance that Rodgers wouldn't land it in Pittsburgh is really the biggest takeaway from this news. Ciely had already baked in Rodgers-to-Pittsburgh in his projections for Steelers running backs Kaleb Johnson (RB27), Jaylen Warren (RB32), wide receivers DK Metcalf (WR20) and Roman Wilson (WR … scrolling, scrolling, scrolling, ah! WR62), as well as tight end Pat Freiermuth (TE15). With Rodgers signed, the floor is now established several stories above the one in the metaphorical rankings elevator labeled 'Mason Rudolph.' So that's something, even if the ceiling doesn't vault skyward for any of those players in 2025. With the ever-present caveat that anything is possible — even for a 41-year-old quarterback who hasn't finished higher than QB18 since 2022 — for now, the fantasy impact is nil. Any invested managers can now return to a summer-long darkness retreat until the start of Steelers training camp. (Photo of Aaron Rodgers:)
New York Times
07-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Tough decisions, ‘stolen' players and more from an early 2025 fantasy football mock draft
For many, the fantasy drafts you care about the most aren't likely to take place until the dog days of August. But preparing for league domination should begin long before that. If you haven't taken stock of the fantasy football landscape for 2025, consider this mock draft the first step in your quest for a fantasy title in 2025. Participants in this 12-team, half-PPR exercise include (listed in draft order) Jake Ciely, Jay Felicio, Theo Gremminger, Gary Davenport, Brandon Funston, Jacob Robinson, Jeff Haverlack, Michael Salfino, Scott Engel, John Laghezza, Jess Bryant and KC Joyner. ► Click here for an expanded view of the draft grid One unique wrinkle to this mock exercise was requiring every team to draft at least two quarterbacks or two tight ends — you had to have a backup for at least one of those two positions. It's a way to manufacture a larger snapshot of those positions — otherwise, most managers would do what they often do in these mocks, which is spend all their picks on the 'sexier' running back and wide receiver positions, and we'd end up with maybe 12-14 picks at QB and/or TE. With this stipulation in place, we finished with 20 drafted quarterbacks and 16 drafted tight ends, casting a wider net on the hierarchy of those positions. Additionally, this draft took place before reports that the Cowboys are looking to acquire George Pickens. After the draft concluded, we asked each participant what their toughest decision was and which player was 'stolen' right before they were going to take them—the one who got away! Those answers are below, but since Jake Ciely had the first pick and his player rankings are already so well known among many of you reading here, we thought we'd ask him some questions specific to his draft strategy. Let's get to it! Jake Ciely Q. You took receivers with four of your first five picks. Was that by design, given the 3 WR+Flex setup, or more a function of how things fell to you? A. I almost always let the board fall to me, and drafting at 1.01, my plan was starting 1 RB and 2 WR, unless great value fell. It was the Round 4/5 turn where I considered grabbing a second running back, but after Joe Mixon went at 4.08, my next tier of running backs left more opportunities for value at the next turn. I will never be a proponent of true Zero RB, but I do enjoy Hero RB, and I believe this year is a great time to do it. Given the draft class and number of split backfields, you'll find running backs with lead/RB2 potential in the sixth, seventh and even eighth rounds. There is some injury risk with my No. 3 and 4 receivers, but I can absorb that given Chris Godwin's WR1 upside as my third option, plus D'Andre Swift, Kaleb Johnson and Brian Robinson Jr. are in play as my RB2 … one of which should definitely hit. Q. You didn't take the requisite three combined QB/TE until your final three picks — C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Dalton Kincaid. Would you be good going heading into the 2025 fantasy season with this QB/TE crew? Were you tempted by someone at either position earlier in the draft? A. Given I was on the turn, I was subject to runs and didn't expect to be in on either position early. I would have drafted a top-5 QB if one made it to the 4/5 turn. Once that didn't happen — and at tight end, only Mark Andrews neared the investment I wanted to pay, but went two picks ahead of me — I was in end-game mode. Stroud is in a great spot to bounce back, and I will always chase Top 5 upside if I don't get a Top 5 player in the draft. If Richardson learned anything and can pass half decently, we know he's in play for a Top 5 spot, which is a gamble I'll always take as my QB2. Jay Felicio Toughest decision: Drafting Quinshon Judkins over Omarion Hampton and TreVeyon Henderson in the fifth. I prefer both Hampton and Henderson in dynasty, but being redraft, I took the back I feel has the clearest path to bell-cow touches. Jerome Ford doesn't concern me — he's just a guy. But Najee Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson likely cap the latter two's upside for 2025. One who got away: Losing out on Jayden Higgins on the Round 8/9 turn was a dagger straight to the heart. I was targeting Kyler Murray in the mid-to-late rounds and thought I could wait a little longer on Higgins. I was wrong. Theo Gremminger Toughest decision: After my RB-RB start, I had anticipated selecting either Ladd McConkey or Garrett Wilson. McConkey was taken a few picks earlier, but I was pleasantly surprised that Bucky Irving lasted past the Round 2-3 turn. This created a major headache between Irving and Wilson, but I ultimately went with the running back. Wilson is a target magnet (469 over the past three seasons) and should have one of the highest target shares of any wide receiver this season. But the allure of Irving was too much to pass up. As a rookie, Irving finished with over 1,513 combined rushing and receiving yards and eight touchdowns — numbers that should tick up in Year 2. He has top-5 RB upside and is an absolute hammer at this range in the draft. One who got away: I was sniped multiple times in this draft — right from the top (I prefer Bijan Robinson to Saquon Barkley this season) and again toward the end (Gary Davenport sniped me on Justin Fields and tilted me in the process!). But the one who truly got away was RJ Harvey. He was a tremendous value in early Round 7, and even with my three-running-back start, he would have been too good to pass up. The Denver Broncos have been on the hunt for a high-end fantasy producer at the running back position seemingly since the Knowshon Moreno days. This role could be fantasy gold. Denver ranked fourth in running back targets in 2024 and first in 2023 — the explosive Harvey will have a baked-in floor as a receiver in this offense. As a runner, Harvey had the second-most runs of 10 yards or more among FBS backs, trailing only Ashton Jeanty. Gary Davenport Toughest decision: Not to cop out here, but my hardest call was probably my first — deciding between Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb with the fourth overall pick. Compelling arguments can be made for all three, but the 'old school' in me won out in taking Gibbs. The list of running backs who are true fantasy 'anchors' seemingly shrinks by the season, and I just feel more comfortable finding mid-round values at wide receiver. It's still early, but right now I think the place to be on draft day might be the back half of Round 1. One who got away: It was a two-pick gap, so it wasn't the snipiest of snipes, but missing on Marvin Harrison Jr. in Round 3 stung. Yes, his rookie year was rather meh, but I still believe in the talent, and Kyler Murray and Jonathan Gannon have both raved about the work Harrison has put in this offseason. I won't be even a little surprised if Harrison winds up a Top 10 fantasy receiver in 2025 and a value pick for drafters. Brandon Funston Toughest decision: Unlike Jake, I haven't finished my initial 2025 player rankings yet, so when I was looking for a WR in Round 5, I was stalled by an inability to decide between Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith and Courtland Sutton. With a couple of seconds left on the pick clock, I decided on Flowers. It was at least heartening to see Smith and Sutton go with two of the next three picks — I don't think there was a wrong answer. The one who got away: I was one pick away from landing James Conner as my third top 13 running back from last season, after taking Kyren Williams and Joe Mixon earlier. It would have been so nice to have three running backs with no real threat to their featured roles. Instead, after getting sniped again in the next round on Aaron Jones, I ended up with committee members Cam Skattebo and Jaylen Wright as my other running backs — I opted to take players at different positions where I was hoping to land Conner and Jones. Jacob Robinson Toughest decision: No. 6 overall. Taking Jeanty would've set the tone for a high-risk, high-reward team, but CeeDee Lamb felt like the safer option. I went with safety here, following the philosophy that you can't win a draft in the first round, but you can lose it. I began to regret it by Round 6, as running backs flew off the board. One who got away: Aaron Jones in Round 7. My plan was obvious: Get high-upside receivers and pair them with established running backs below ADP. That got blown up when Gary Davenport drafted Jones, which caused me to panic-draft Patrick Mahomes and, by necessity, a few rounds later, Travis Kelce. Had I gone Jones, I would've had my ideal stable of skill position talent to pair with an ascending passer like Caleb Williams. After that, all my worries would've disappeared. Heck, I'd be willing to go as far as saying we might've seen world peace. Thanks, Gary. Jeff Haverlack Toughest decision: My toughest decision was to abandon my 'no risk early' draft strategy to select Ashton Jeanty at 1.07. Being this was a half-PPR draft, I naturally elevated running backs, but when Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs were off the board, my top tier was gone, leaving Jeanty, Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor as my fallbacks. My hope was that one of the latter two would also make it back to me in Round 2. Jeanty was sure not to. He has a guaranteed high-volume role and should be a three-down player, so I took the gamble. As it turned out, McCaffrey went early in the second round, and Taylor went at 2.05, one selection before I would have paired him with Jeanty. One who got away: Cooper Kupp is aging and has had difficulty remaining healthy, but I love his fit in the Seahawks offense. I didn't believe he'd go in Round 8, so I had him queued up to select at 8.06. Once again, the manager (Michael Salfino), who was before me at 8.05, surprised me by selecting him. I had no expectation that would occur, and I had to scramble to select Stephon Diggs, which is a solid selection, but I believe Kupp will have the better season. Michael Salfino Toughest decision: It was early. We're playing Flex 10 (three WRs and a flex). Totally different game and draft than two WRs and a flex (RBs rule). So when I was planning Brian Thomas Jr. as a worst-case scenario in Round 2, and I was sniped the pick before, I had to scramble. No WR was worth it. I had to choose between Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs. I went with the player I think is better and who is a year younger in Taylor, but the setup in Green Bay seems better, honestly. One who got away: Isiah Pacheco was a snipe against me in Round 8. I was sniped earlier, but that's more expected. Late snipes are so rare, and it was literally one spot before I picked. Scott Engel Toughest decision: My third-round decision was the toughest, but I liked how it worked out. I was deciding whether to go with a top WR as a third starter or take an RB1 or elite QB. It was between Terry McLaurin, Jayden Daniels,and James Cook. In the end, I could not resist McLaurin as a WR3. One who got away: I never get sniped or annoyed at someone being picked before me because I always have several players in the queue and realize others may be targeting the same guys. That said, it would have been good to see James Cook slip to my spot in Round 4, but I could have taken him in the third, so that's the risk I was willing to go with. John Laghezza Toughest decision: In Round 6, I chose Jaylen Waddle over a second RB, which turned out to be a mistake. One who got away: Najee Harris went right before me at the Round 7-8 turn and blocked me from pairing him with fellow Charger Omarion Hampton. I was not happy. Jess Bryant Toughest decision: I would say choosing my running back room was generally difficult. I feel like I got Christian McCaffrey at a fair price, and I think he'll have a good year. But I don't think anyone drafting him can be 'confident,' given last season, his injury history and Isaac Guerendo's performance in McCaffrey's absence. James Cook is in contract negotiations and could lose touches to Ray Davis or someone else, but Davis isn't stellar, and I have to believe Cook will be the lead back in Buffalo. Then, I opted for TreVeyon Henderson. I think Henderson will outperform Rhamondre Stevenson and have a solid season, but drafting a rookie is always a risk. I was the 11th pick, though, so most Hero RBs were off the board before I could grab them. I always try to draft the best available player, but I had to fill out my running back room, and there are only so many bell cows and guarantees. One who got away: Sam LaPorta was chosen two picks before my slot, and, in my opinion, he was the last TE I had my eye on in the top 1-2 tiers. So, I waited a few rounds and grabbed Kyle Pitts, who has failed me in at least two previous fantasy seasons. He will likely falter again, but he still has a ceiling, and I'm praying for it. KC Joyner Toughest decision: The toughest early call was Xavier Worthy with the 4.1 pick. It was between him, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Rashee Rice and DeVonta Smith. I already had A.J. Brown, so that eliminated Smith. Evans and Adams have age risk issues and Worthy seemed a safer pick than Rice (although they are all somewhat relatively risky picks at that point). One who got away: Josh Allen was the vultured pick at 3.11. I'm aiming higher at QB this year than in past years, and he may have the highest upside at his position. I still ended up with Joe Burrow, which is a good consolation, but I would have preferred Allen's rushing ability. Mock draft miscellanea Of the first 76 picks, 67 were running backs (27 total) and receivers (40), with just five quarterbacks and four tight ends selected in that span. Ashton Jeanty was the first rookie selected, No. 7 overall, and another rookie didn't come off the board until Travis Hunter was selected in Round 4, No. 43 overall. Brock Bowers is the new Travis Kelce, pushing up near the Round 1 boundary as the No. 15 overall pick. Trey McBride went as the TE2 six picks later, followed by George Kittle in Round 3 (No. 32 overall) — a predictable Salfino selection. After that, just one tight end — Sam LaPorta (No. 57 overall) — went in the next 44 picks. Here's where some of the expected backfield committees were drafted, with industry ECR listed in parentheses: Los Angeles Chargers: Omarion Hampton RB19 (19); Najee Harris RB30 (33) Pittsburgh Steelers: Kaleb Johnson RB25 (27); Jaylen Warren RB28 (31) New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB31 (32); Cam Skattebo RB34 (37) Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. RB33 (36); Tank Bigsby RB36 (38); Bhayshul Tuten RB42 (50) New England Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson RB20 (24); Rhamondre Stevenson RB37 (34) Here's where some of the old faces in new places landed, with industry ECR listed in parentheses: Justin Fields, NYJ — QB12 (11) Davante Adams, LAR — WR20 (18) DK Metcalf, PIT — WR32 (26) Deebo Samuel, WAS — WR35 (41) Cooper Kupp, SEA — WR45 (47) Stefon Diggs, BUF — WR46 (41) Christian Kirk, HOU — WR55 (50) Evan Engram, DEN — TE12 (10) (Top photo of Brock Bowers: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
