Latest news with #JamesBullard
CNBC
a day ago
- Business
- CNBC
CCTV Script 13/08/2025
The market has largely viewed the latest overnight release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report in a positive light. The nominal CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%. The report also indicated stronger-than-expected inflation in service, while goods inflation came in lower than anticipated. These figures have reinforced market expectations for a rate cut and boosted the performance of U.S. stocks overnight. Specifically: All three major U.S. stock indices rose by more than 1% overnight, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both closing at record highs. According to CME FedWatch, the market's probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased from 85.86% the previous day to 94.93%. Although the market widely expects a rate cut in September, the focus among those supporting the move varies. Some are paying attention to inflation trends, while others are closely monitoring employment data. First, regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation, expert opinions are divided. One camp argues that the effect of tariffs on U.S. inflation is actually quite limited. "Now you have six months of evidence, I don't really think tariffs cause inflation. Taxes don't cause inflation. And so what you're seeing in the data is very muted effects that are one time increases in the price level." It's worth noting that James Bullard is currently considered a top candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair. In an interview with CNBC overnight, he also stated that he expects the Fed to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points over the next year. Meanwhile, another camp in the market warns that the impact of tariffs on inflation may gradually become more apparent in the future. Experts caution that, in addition to nominal CPI, it's crucial to monitor the trajectory of core CPI. "We are seeing a little bit of an uptick in the sequential core inflation and underlying inflation data. And I think a large part of that is the moderate impact we're seeing of tariff pass through that that is likely to grow in the months ahead." Additional analysis points out that while businesses may absorb costs in the short term, they will ultimately pass them on to consumers, particularly in industries with already narrow profit margins. "For instance, groceries, I mean, there's very little margin there. They're going to, you know, your tomato prices are going to go up because of because they can't really absorb, you know, those prices. It's just a matter of time that this, that the tariff related inflation starts to show up in the data." Finally, it's noteworthy that no consensus has yet been reached within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of future rate cuts. Currently among Fed officials, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller represent the dovish camp advocating for . However, Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Kansas City Fed struck a hawkish tone overnight, arguing for . With moderate voices further complicating the divide, analysts suggest that even if the Fed initiates a cut in September, the pace may remain measured due to persistent internal disagreements.
Yahoo
10-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Inflation, Fed Leadership and Other Key Things to Watch this Week
Markets face a pivotal week as the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) navigates mounting political pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell amid growing calls for more aggressive rate cuts following recent labor market weakening. President Trump has intensified criticism of Powell's cautious approach to monetary policy, while reports emerge that the administration has widened its search for Powell's potential successor, with former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller among the names under consideration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly leading the search process and conducting initial interviews, adding uncertainty to an already complex policy environment. The week delivers a comprehensive inflation assessment through Tuesday's Consumer Price Index and Thursday's Producer Price Index, while Friday's retail sales data will provide insights into consumer spending patterns that account for approximately two-thirds of GDP. Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market. More News from Barchart 1 'Strong Buy' Defense Stock to Snag Instead of Palantir Is Qualcomm the Best Semiconductor Stock to Buy Right Now? A $10 Billion Reason to Buy Palantir Stock Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Fed Leadership Uncertainty and Policy Implications The Trump administration's expanded search for Powell's replacement creates uncertainty about monetary policy direction, potentially influencing market reactions to this week's economic data and corporate earnings. Reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is conducting initial interviews with candidates including James Bullard, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller suggest the administration is serious about leadership change amid ongoing disagreements over rate policy. This political pressure comes as markets already grapple with mixed economic signals and questions about the appropriate pace of monetary policy adjustments. The uncertainty could impact bond markets, the dollar, and rate-sensitive sectors as investors attempt to gauge potential policy shifts under new leadership. Fed independence concerns may also influence how markets interpret upcoming inflation data, with any signs of political interference potentially affecting long-term credibility and market stability. Inflation Data Double-Header Tuesday's Consumer Price Index at 8:30am takes center stage as the week's most important economic release, providing insights into July inflation trends amid ongoing concerns about price pressures and Fed policy direction. Both headline and core CPI readings will be scrutinized for evidence of continued disinflation progress or potential re-acceleration in price growth. Thursday's Producer Price Index at 8:30am will offer a forward-looking perspective on wholesale price pressures and potential future consumer inflation trends. The timing of these reports amid Fed leadership uncertainty creates potential for amplified market reactions, particularly if inflation data contradicts current policy expectations or provides ammunition for either side of the rate cut debate. Energy prices, housing costs, and services inflation will be key components to watch, especially given recent volatility in commodity markets and ongoing labor market changes. Consumer Spending Reality Check Friday's July retail sales data at 8:30am represents a crucial test of consumer resilience, providing insights into spending patterns that drive the largest component of economic growth. With consumer spending accounting for roughly two-thirds of GDP, this report takes on heightened significance amid questions about economic momentum and the sustainability of recent growth trends. The data will be particularly important for assessing whether consumers are maintaining spending despite labor market weakening and ongoing inflation concerns. Core retail sales, which exclude volatile automotive purchases, will provide additional insight into underlying consumer demand trends. Thursday's initial jobless claims will complement the spending picture by offering the latest snapshot of labor market conditions, creating potential for significant market moves if employment and consumption data collectively suggest strengthening or weakening economic fundamentals. Technology and Global Earnings Focus Wednesday's Cisco (CSCO) earnings will provide crucial insights into enterprise technology spending and networking equipment demand amid ongoing questions about corporate IT investment priorities. The results will be closely watched for commentary on AI infrastructure spending, cloud migration trends, and the health of business technology budgets. Thursday brings a diverse international lineup with (JD) offering perspective on Chinese e-commerce trends, Applied Materials (AMAT) providing insights into semiconductor equipment demand, and Nu Holdings (NU) delivering Latin American fintech trends. Tuesday's Sea Limited (SE) earnings will offer perspective on Southeast Asian digital trends and gaming markets. These results will provide a global view of technology adoption and consumer behavior across key international markets. Energy and Commodity Market Dynamics Wednesday's crude oil inventories report at 10:30am will provide the latest snapshot of energy market conditions amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand patterns. The report comes as markets assess the impact of recent OPEC+ decisions and global economic growth concerns on oil demand and pricing. Energy sector earnings this week, including Thursday's Petrobras (PBR) results, will offer perspective on global oil and gas market conditions and production strategies. The intersection of energy prices with inflation data creates additional complexity, as commodity price movements could influence both CPI readings and Fed policy considerations. Energy companies' capital expenditure plans and production guidance will be closely watched for insights into supply dynamics and future price trends, particularly important given energy's role in both inflation calculations and broader economic sentiment. Best of luck this week and don't forget to check out my daily options article. On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster had a position in: SPY. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Free Malaysia Today
09-08-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Trump's team expands search for Fed chair to about 10 names
Current Fed chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, triggering a search for his successor. (EPA Images pic) WASHINGTON : US President Donald Trump's team is reviewing new contenders to lead the Federal Reserve once chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, including a long-time economic consultant and a past regional Fed president, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. The 10 or so people on the newly expanded list include former St. Louis Fed president James Bullard and Marc Sumerlin, a former economic adviser to president George W. Bush, WSJ said, citing officials. Trump last week said he had narrowed the list to four. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh remain under consideration, along with current Fed governor Christopher Waller, WSJ said. Reuters has previously reported that these three are candidates but could not immediately verify the rest of the report. Trump has been criticising Powell all year for not cutting rates, building on disappointment with the Fed chief that emerged during his first term as president shortly after he elevated Powell to the Fed chair role. It was not clear what a broader list of candidates would mean for the timing of an appointment. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is helping lead the search. The president moved quickly to name an ally to the Fed Board this week after Fed governor Adriana Kugler, a Biden appointee who did not support rate cuts, unexpectedly resigned as of the end of this week. Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran will serve out the remaining months of Kugler's term, which ends on Jan 31. Trump has indicated a search continues for someone who could fill the Fed Board role for a 14-year term beginning Feb 1.
Reuters
08-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Bessent leads broad search for Fed chair that includes Bullard, Sumerlin
WASHINGTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading a search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with an expanded list that includes a longtime economic consultant and a past regional Fed president, a source familiar with the process told Rueters on Friday. The list includes St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Marc Sumerlin, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush, the source said, confirming an earlier report by the Wall Street Journal that said there were now about 10 contenders for the spot. President Donald Trump last week said he had narrowed the list to four. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh remain under consideration, along with current Fed governor Christopher Waller, the source told Reuters. Trump has pressured Powell all year to cut interest rates, building on his past comments critical of the Fed chief that emerged during his first term as president shortly after he elevated Powell to the Fed chair role. Powell's term ends in May. Critics have said the president should let Fed chair Powell complete his term without interference. Hassett, Warsh and Waller have all signaled support for lower rates, which Trump had indicated would be a requirement for the job. Bullard, who left the St. Louis Fed last year to be dean of Purdue University's business school, was Waller's boss before Trump plucked the regional Fed's research director from under Bullard to serve on the Fed Board. As recently as May he said he thought the Fed would probably be able to cut rates by September. The recent monetary policy views of Sumerlin were not immediately clear. It was also not clear what a broader list of candidates would mean for the timing of an appointment. The president moved quickly to name an ally to the Fed Board this week after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, a Biden appointee who did not support rate cuts, unexpectedly resigned as of the end of this week. Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran will serve out the remaining months of Kugler's term, which ends on January 31. Trump has indicated a search continues for someone who could fill the Fed Board role for a 14-year term beginning February 1.
Reuters
08-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Trump's team expands search for Fed chair to about 10 names, WSJ reports
Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's team is reviewing new contenders to lead the Federal Reserve once Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, including a longtime economic consultant and a past regional Fed president, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. The 10 or so people on the newly expanded list include former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Marc Sumerlin, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush, WSJ said, citing officials. Trump last week said he had narrowed the list to four. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh remain under consideration, along with current Fed governor Christopher Waller, WSJ said. Reuters has previously reported that these three are candidates, but could not immediately verify the rest of the report. Trump has been criticizing Powell all year for not cutting rates, building on disappointment with the Fed chief that emerged during his first term as president shortly after he elevated Powell to the Fed chair role. It was not clear what a broader list of candidates would mean for the timing of an appointment. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is helping lead the search. The president moved quickly to name an ally to the Fed Board this week after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, a Biden appointee who did not support rate cuts, unexpectedly resigned as of the end of this week. Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran will serve out the remaining months of Kugler's term, which ends on January 31. Trump has indicated a search continues for someone who could fill the Fed Board role for a 14-year term beginning February 1.
