Latest news with #JamesCheck
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin's True Capitulation Zone Is $65K, Says Well-Followed Analyst
Where's the bottom for bitcoin (BTC)? While acknowledging it's possible that level has already been hit, on-chain analyst James Check suggested a true bottom may not be in place until after bitcoin suffers a true capitulation event. That would likely require a decline to the $65,000 area, said Check, calling it the "true market mean," i.e., the average cost basis for active investors. At that point according to Check, who spoke on the TFTC podcast, the average investor may begin to feel the pressure of unrealized losses. Even long-term holders, including those who have held bitcoin for five years, could find themselves underwater. Interestingly, this price level aligns closely with Michael Saylor's Strategy, which has a similar cost basis of around $67,500. While Check expects sizable declines from the $65,000 area, he sees strong support in the $49,000-$50,000 range, those prices representing the launch of the ETFs in 2024 as well as a $1 trillion market cap for bitcoin. A drop to as low as $40,000 seems unlikely, he said, barring a global recession. Check also took note of the extended period of "chopsolidation" in 2024 — where bitcoin traded for months in a wide range between $50K and $70K — as establishing a strong foundation of support.
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ETH/BTC Ratio Hits 5-Year Low and Underperforms Bitcoin on 85% of Trading Days
Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin on 85% of all trading days since it launched in 2015. The ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks the value of Ether relative to Bitcoin, dropped to a five-year low of 0.018 on April 9. The last time the ratio fell this low was in December 2019, when ETH was priced at $125 and BTC traded around $7,000. Ethereum is now trading at around $1,670, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin also declined but only by 6%, holding at $75,000—still over 275% higher than its 2017 bull market peak—before surging to over $83,000 near the end of the day. In contrast, ETH has fallen below its 2018 market cycle high. Analysts say this effectively erases nearly seven years of relative gains for Ether, placing most long-term holders in a loss position. Ethereum briefly outperformed Bitcoin between mid-2015 and mid-2017 and again in late 2019 and early 2020. Since then, Bitcoin has consistently led the market. James Check, an analyst at Glassnode, highlighted that Ethereum has only outperformed Bitcoin on 15% of trading days in its entire history. Growing concerns around the Ethereum network's current state have started to surface. On April 8, Web3 researcher Stacy Muur noted that the number of active Ethereum addresses has remained roughly the same over the past four years. 'I love Ethereum. However, it's time to face reality: Ethereum has had [around] the same number of active addresses for the past 4 years,' she posted on X. Others argue that user activity has shifted to Ethereum's layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism. These platforms have grown significantly in total value locked, suggesting that users are moving to cheaper and faster alternatives within the Ethereum ecosystem. Data from L2beat confirms increased adoption of these scaling solutions. Ethereum's average transaction fees have also dropped to $0.41, the lowest since late August. This marks a significant fall from the $15.21 peak seen in the past two years, indicating reduced congestion on the network. Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures blamed Ethereum's weakening investment case on the rise of layer-2s and unchecked token creation. He said that 'Greedy Eth L2s' are absorbing activity without giving much back to the base layer, and criticized the Ethereum community for allowing the platform to be 'buried in an avalanche of its own tokens.' Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, also said Ethereum is 'completely dead' as an investment, citing falling transaction activity, declining user growth, and dropping network revenues. Carter previously warned in September 2024 that Ethereum's fee revenue had fallen 99% over six months as L2s took over user and revenue flows. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
27-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Rally Reverses Despite Supposedly Bullish GameStop News
Bitcoin's (BTC) rise following GameStop's Tuesday bitcoin treasury strategy announcement halted just shy of the $89,000 level and things are now headed decidedly lower during U.S. trading hours Wednesday. Just after the noon hour on the east coast, bitcoin has pulled back about 3% from overnight highs to $86,500. The broad-market crypto benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index was 1.9% lower through the past 24 hours, with ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and AAVE declining around 3%-4% during the same period. The price action happened with U.S. risk assets showing weakness. The S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes were down 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively, erasing most of their gains since Monday's opening. Fresh concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling perhaps loomed over markets. The Congressional Budget Office issued a warning today that the federal government may run out of money as soon as August if lawmakers don't raise the debt limit. U.S. tariffs, poised to go into effect on April 2, could also be weighing on investor nerves. "Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the broader political landscape remains front of mind," analysts at hedge fund QCP said in a Telegram broadcast. "The market still lacks clarity on the scope, timing and magnitude of these potential actions. Until then, we expect more sideways volatility." Bitcoin bulls, meanwhile, are once again left scratching their heads as the price fails to react positively to news of yet another deep-pocketed buyer planning to invest in the world's largest crypto. "Zombie companies like GameStop 'pulling a Saylor' as a get out of jail cared would be a clear topping signal," said James Check, first one year ago and then again Tuesday evening following GME's announcement. He reminded that he said similar about publicly trader miners when those capital-burning companies decided to stack bitcoin beyond what their mining activity provided. "Three months ago I couldn't make a case for where this cycle's excess sell-side comes like we saw in the 2022 bear market ... I suspect in a few months time, I will be able to make a case once again." Sign in to access your portfolio
